Even Urban Meyer thinks this is funny. Urb just cracked open a cold-one.
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Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
Meet Hall of Fame catcher Johnny BENCH.Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
The sharp forecast has Calgary winning with 34 or 36 points to British Columbia’s 8 points. The stacking forecast shows Calgary winning with 38 or 39 points to British Columbia’s 8 points. The public gauge shows Calgary winning 30 to 15 or so.
Less sophisticated methods using season averages and medians have Calgary with 30 points to BC’s 7 points.
The line opened with Calgary -11 and has ticked upwards towards all the numbers. The Total opened early at 52 and has moved towards all the numbers as well.
Total tickets are pretty split at this point but there is clearly bigger money on the Under. It was the same with spread tickets, pretty split, with more money on Calgary, but we’ve seen tickets come in on Calgary as I finished writing this.
Both of these conditions are consistent with the line moves and the books may very well have known what they were doing when they opened the line so high.
This has been a week of settlement and stacking has been short lived. I mentioned the market strategy on Thursday and how it was geared for settlement. Then Hamilton came through for the bettors with a solid win and cover after losing as favorites three consecutive times.
Tonight we have no reason to counter the forecast or press it with a bold play. Calgary is in pretty good form and may be very comfortable staying in that form, but just not covering as many spreads, falling shy by a small margin; like that 17 point Montreal victory or a 10 point victory tonight.
So many other indicators have flattened out here that the next couple of weeks promise to be exciting, giving us more if a market story to follow.
As far as fading the sharp forecast Totals, it would have worked well this week at 2-1 and the public was given that Over show they hoped to see with Manziel. He contributed alright, but Hamilton got to 50 by themselves. For tonight’s game it seems like the books, while splitting tickets, were trying to attract that Under money, consistent with the numbers.
I am passing on countering the forecast with a bold Over play on the 49.5 but I do think it’s a pretty solid market read.
I’ll check back in as volume comes in and we get an hour until kickoff.
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The market situation hasn't change much, Calgary's line is pressing up because tickets and money dictate it; but to give you an idea, the volume on this game seems good for CFL and there is almost half of what Manziel brought when he played last night.
There is still bigger money on that Under and, in my opinion, the books are rooting for a BC upset.
Bold plays I am not making here, and passing on, would be British Columbia to win with the Over 49.5 with the Over being the better choice in the market, but still a pass.
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I'm on the over 49.5 tonight. Like Calgary but not at -12.5.Comment -
Hey kvb nice write ups do you do these for CFB or NFL?Comment -
Thanks 42, not sure if you've been reading along, but the write-ups will intertwine so make sure you stick around for a week or two of action. You won't regret it.
It can be a lot with so many teams, but looking to maybe do this for NCAAF, may have to choose some major conferences, or a couple major and others, I can analyze the whole league, but to get it all out there can be crazy.
Then again, we have all week and college and pro will be a focus.
I'll be doing something, as well as the power posting Bowl games and NFL playoffs.
Figuring that out now and am open to suggestions.
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BC up 3-0, they may have doomed themselves.
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Calgary still winning handily, but not covering tonight.
As Calgary let's off the gas, BC gets the back door inside 5 minutes.
Can't say we didn't see it coming and recent efforts show Calgary is being primed for an upset here. It may be no coincidence that they have next week off before heading to Saskatchewan as the swing game the following week.
Week 10, the midterm.
The public has been reinforced already once this year with a reminder of the great success of Bo Levi Mitchell following a bye and the market may seek to exploit that and other factors.
Before we get too far ahead, enjoy the rest of the weekend everybody.
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Manziel really surprised me,thought for sure hed be ready to play.Will have to see if he keeps this up.Comment -
Lines out a the Greek, sharp forecast fund bought all chalk.
I am chomping at the bit for the other houses to pick up the lines.
There's been, for some reason, a delay this morning.
KVB is hungry and wants that food on the table.
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Lines out in many houses, early pressure on the Ottawa -13.5 over Montreal.
Go figure.
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Winnipeg and Ottawa chalk already moving toward the forecast.
But the +3.5 is getting eaten and early buyers on BC, against the forecast.
The public often overestimates the 3 point line in the CFL because, well, it's football.
But it's not the NFL or NCAAF.
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Alright, I am back after my meltdown last Thursday.
It definitely feels like some hard lines this week.
BC +3.5 seems like good value, but Mike Reilly has historically owned BC. Edmonton is 8-2 in their last 10 vs BC.
Winnipeg -5.0 could be a good be something to look into, but if Hamilton's offence has their confidence back, it really could be a close game.
Ottawa team total could also be a good bet.Comment -
Hamilton may be in a case of false confidence. After all, it was Montreal they played.
Johnny football really set Hamilton up quite few times.
I basically have Hamilton and Winnipeg with the same defense but Winny with the superior offense.
The stacking and public numbers have Winnipeg the same, they give more credit to Hamilton's offense.
This very well could be why these forecasts differ. The sharp forecast will wait for confirming offensive production, not jump at the first beatdown of the shittiest team in the Americas.
Public gauge, right now, has the game at like a field goal.
They could be right. This could be the start of Winnipeg's downfall and the beginning of a Hamilton run.
But Winnipeg is a give and take team because they have the talent. They are the stars, for now.
Sharp forecast has all chalk this week, and so far I have no reason to disagree for Hamilton and Winnipeg.
Great to see you HngKng,
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KVB who are the sharps on tonight?Comment -
Great to have you back HngKng!
I'm going to lay the juice and take Edm ML and see if I can get a better spread on BC in-play.Comment -
The sharp forecast shows Edmonton winning with 23 or 24 points to British Columbia’s 13 points. The stacking forecast has Edmonton winning with 30 points to BC’s 22 or 23 points. The non-predictive public gauge has a close game with Edmonton winning about 28-24.
This line opened at the public gauge with Edmonton -3.5 and really hasn’t moved. With the volume I see at this point, there is pressure on BC, with a lot of spread bets sitting there. We might see -3, which would be the first time the sharp forecast did not see the spread close towards it, the first time it doesn’t beat the closer.
The Total opened just above the numbers to mitigate what I see as pressure on the Over from some analysts and groups. When we compare this to the back end we see that all the bets, so far, are on the Over.
Notice, though, this line hasn’t budged. I expect further updates as game time comes closer and I am sure there will be a change in this condition.
The market was conditioned for swing game settlement after a few weeks early on, we walked through those stories here, but the last couple of weeks saw settlements come in many forms, but not in the swing games. We had middle game settlements and the market is still in a neutral sort of pattern.
I think this is because of all the build up and take down early in the season. It has led to bettors looking ahead and missing the middle game in front of them. This too was addressed in this thread as it was occurring two weeks ago.
As such, we need to let a game or two go by, to see if the market starts to lean a little more a certain direction.
Basically, we’re seeing money on the BC spread and the Over to a decent degree. Tickets are on the Edmonton spread slightly but it is pretty even.
Bettors are picking BC to win the game in a shot at the upset but, at this point, bigger money slightly disagrees.
When it’s all added up, I hear there is parlay exposure on Edmonton.
I will get another update with a volume update and expect these numbers to stay fairly even, with the exception of the Total. I think the books may be taking a positon here and seeking the Under themselves.
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I am trying to find a -3.0 hopefully.
For me, Edmonton's record vs BC is too good to ignore. But the 2 BC wins in the last 10 meetings were in BC place.
Thanks, I had a crazy meltdown last Thursday. The Redblacks loss after being up like 25, Baltimore -2.5 lost after giving up a 95 yard TD drive with under 4 mins. Then the Riders pushed after covering for 59.5 mins.Comment -
Yikes. I often say, the highs are very high, and the lows are very low in this thing we signed up for.Comment -
Alright, it looks like the moneyline tickets have evened out or even turned towards BC, where the money already sits.
Same condition with the spread as earlier, tickets on Edmonton, but money on BC.
I see a lopsided Totals market here and picked up UNDER 54.5 (-106) for Edmonton Eskimos versus British Columbia Lions.
Good Luck.
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I wouldn't be surprised if Edmonton won this game and didn't cover in an Under, from what I see.
It is not enough to counter the sharp forecast, however.
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I added under 54.5 to my EDM ML. I will grab BC +7 or better IF it presents itself.Comment -
I don't know much about what you do KVB, but under seems like an amazing public fade.
Edmonton's D is getting healthier, and from the previews I read all week, all the major analysts have said this is a high scoring gameComment -
I do quite a bit, but we're adding this back end info to the thread.
Once again I get some late volume info coming in (fukkin books holding out on the one CFL game) and the moneyline info is very balanced, not quite what I said earlier.
But, when it comes to the spread, the public is on the favorite but the money is on the dog, not too extreme but at equal extremes. That tends to imply sharper dollar on the dog.
Parlay exposure looks to be equal, from what I'm told.
When it comes to the Total, Public tickets came in but didn't seem to dent the money, from what I hear and see.
This CFL info can be subject to change and may be most confidently used after the game had begun or is over to see where money has fallen.
I have always used the usual and other techniques to determine money, and now my new connections give us a solid sample to verify what I see in the marketplace among groups.
Try to follow along, think about your capping, where you sit, and then take in the info I pass along.
Let's see what happens.
You can always ask questions, bro, I do not know everything and this is a game of probabilities, and we are in this together.
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was looking at edmonton vs over. late night action play close to tip off, no knowledge of league, had to go off something. edmonton plays good against good opponents
meant to post this in different thread, here was the original post
16 combined games played between each team, 8 of the results have high scoring totals for one of the teams if you double count
EDM-41, WPG-41, BC-34
EDM-33, WPG-30, HAM-38, EDM-41, EDM-44Comment -
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30 points already first half.
Honestly, I like my spot here. If it is the Under, I expect it to be very disappointing, bad beat fashion for the over bettors.
They need to be shaken, not stirred.
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Anyone else feeling like we could be on the wrong side of another potential big comeback?Comment -
So Edmonton chilled out on the scoring, we just need to stop BC.
Things have changed a little, defense getting better, penalties, "booming punts", game becoming a field position battle.
This bodes well for the Under and is consistent with a bad beat for Over bettors, but the 1 point could turn 54 point game into a 55 point game.
It is the CFL, so you know there is plenty of time left.
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Wow, if it doesn't go over, with that drop, I think we've seen our bad beat for the Over bettors.
Unreal.
Edmonton now has to get a TD, to bring the Over.
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