Stock Market Discussion -- started 03/06/2018 -- updated daily !!!

[Enkhbat]

Lets focus on the stock market guys, stop the conspiracy theories.

So which corporations are getting the bailout money? and which ones aren't? lets make a play here

[d2bets]

OK guys, how do you see today playing out?

[HockeyRocks]

This is a V right now with a big down coming. It's makes 0 mathematical sense to have 0 interest, record high unemployment, every major metropolitan area at a 2 month standstill, the Fed printing basically 15% of our total PRE CORONA GDP ($2 trillion might equal 30% of post Corona) and to buy anything. Wall Street is broken. The corporate dividends for non bailout companies will be slashed next qtr if not cut completely, that'll sink them. Any company getting a bailout or loan can't buy back their stock, that's stagnating, the unemployment benefits encourage companies to layoff more workers and IF this drives technology into logistics and loading and say restaraunts then you're looking at more low skilled workers not getting work or working for less.

My theory on society is that any society, no matter how great, will collapse or face economic ruin trying to lift the bottom 10%. If the bottom 10% can't keep up, then they'll vote for leaders who pay them not to work and then it's over boys...that's socialism via wealth redistribution on steroids.

There are some cases where government mandated inefficiencies are beneficial. I'll vote the 3 tier system in beer. It's a lot easier for the brewery to direct ship to your home via FedEx but instead we have a middle man and a retailer. Both are tax collection vehicles for the state, both create hundreds of thousands of jobs in this Country. Without the 3 tier system the US Beer industry could shed 215,000 workers and cut over $8 billion in costs (labor, trucking, energy, etc).

I'm very concerned after this shutdown we may only have a few retailers left. Amazon, Walmart, Target, Home Depot and Lowes. What's the point of Main Street? What's the point of the family hardware store, the locally owned diner, the local liquor store, etc if a government mandated shutdown kills them or their families finances and only the big companies have access to the bailout loans.

The airlines and cruises are worthless business but no executive will have to cosign a guarantee here. But the small business owner, yeah hes going to have to cross collateraluze everything.

This is going to be worse than 08/09 in a few months because that bottom 10%....those 30million people who have 0 money and 0 savings and 0 job and arent likely to get rehired....they're going to default on what they have. Leases, cars, rent to own furniture, sub prime mortgages, etc. It's going to be really bad.

Trump to the rescue. " Only he Can Fix It."

[milwaukee mike]

Lets focus on the stock market guys, stop the conspiracy theories.

So which corporations are getting the bailout money? and which ones aren't? lets make a play here

but it all ties together

if you thought all those sleeper cells of terrorists were gonna blow everything up, you wouldn't have invested in late 2001/2002, just like now, if you think we're all gonna die of coronavirus, or we're gonna have a 18 month shutdown then there's really no point in owning equities unless you like losing money

great opportunities come out of this stuff, as long as the world doesn't come to an end

[d2bets]

but it all ties together

if you thought all those sleeper cells of terrorists were gonna blow everything up, you wouldn't have invested in late 2001/2002, just like now, if you think we're all gonna die of coronavirus, or we're gonna have a 18 month shutdown then there's really no point in owning equities unless you like losing money

great opportunities come out of this stuff, as long as the world doesn't come to an end

MM, so summarize your thoughts short, medium and long term.

I'm long-term bullish, maybe even medium. I think innovation will increase productivity and profits. But short-term the virus situation is likely to be worse than some are leading on and if restrictions are lifted it's gonna get much worse and last longer.

[milwaukee mike]

MM, so summarize your thoughts short, medium and long term.

I'm long-term bullish, maybe even medium. I think innovation will increase productivity and profits. But short-term the virus situation is likely to be worse than some are leading on and if restrictions are lifted it's gonna get much worse and last longer.

short-term sell the rallies, buy the dips

long-term how can you avoid the value on some of these hospitality stocks? and stuff that gets unfairly hit, like WWE at 32 today, mcmahon sold a small fraction of his shares, and roman reigns is out of wrestlemania, 2 pretty non-events in the grand scheme of things

same with psa-g, morgan stanley put out a stupid low price target on the common stock, so you can get the preferred at a 10% discount today for no reason

[d2bets]

short-term sell the rallies, buy the dips

long-term how can you avoid the value on some of these hospitality stocks? and stuff that gets unfairly hit, like WWE at 32 today, mcmahon sold a small fraction of his shares, and roman reigns is out of wrestlemania, 2 pretty non-events in the grand scheme of things

same with psa-g, morgan stanley put out a stupid low price target on the common stock, so you can get the preferred at a 10% discount today for no reason

No offense, but sell the rallies buy the dips says very little. So today is a dip, are you buying today? What I mean is from where we are right now, are we going higher or lower in a week, a month, etc. Is the bottom in? If not, we have a long way to fall. I know nobody knows, but just looking for predictions.

Personally, I'd stay away from hospitality and stuff. You may be right, but I prefer not to piss into the wind. There are tons of great companies out there that are beaten down but are poised to benefit from the huge shifts that will happen. That seems easier to me than trying to guess which companies in bad areas will survive.

[d2bets]

Initially for awhile we alternated big up and down days. Now I wonder if we alternate big up and down weeks. Last week was a huge down week. This week a huge up week.

[milwaukee mike]

No offense, but sell the rallies buy the dips says very little. So today is a dip, are you buying today? What I mean is from where we are right now, are we going higher or lower in a week, a month, etc. Is the bottom in? If not, we have a long way to fall. I know nobody knows, but just looking for predictions.

Personally, I'd stay away from hospitality and stuff. You may be right, but I prefer not to piss into the wind. There are tons of great companies out there that are beaten down but are poised to benefit from the huge shifts that will happen. That seems easier to me than trying to guess which companies in bad areas will survive.

nibble a bit on a down day, take a bit off the table after those big up days

yes i bought some more wwe in the 32s and some psa-g in the 22s... would sell either chunk with a quick 10% gain since i'm holding a bunch of both

more than 1 way to skin a cat, i agree there... here's a good one for dumpster diving, bbby at 4.40... market cap is $500 million but they have $1 billion in cash

they could declare a $8/share dividend with the stock at $4

[krk1030]

My stocks going up today

KR
ADRNY

[Mike Huntertz]

More quantitative easing, interest rates slashed and huge bailouts. The printing press is working overtime.
Any thoughts on gold? Eventually the massive money supply increase has to cause some inflation?

[milwaukee mike]

More quantitative easing, interest rates slashed and huge bailouts. The printing press is working overtime.
Any thoughts on gold? Eventually the massive money supply increase has to cause some inflation?

good point, weird to me that gold is more than 2x platinum? when platinum is much rarer and costlier to mine?

in times of great pain, cash can be king for a while, looking out 10 years i think i would rather have gold or real estate than cash

[Slurry Pumper]

The only bounce is on the Gvnt dumping $2trillion into economy and cutting rates.

Liquidy sucks

Credit markets are closed

Employment horrible

Earnings way off

This is going down down down well into 2nd quarter

It's bad, theres 25 million that just lost their jobs and aint getting rehired

When the world is all doom and gloom and the end is near is exactly the time to buy stocks. I think the market holds the 19000 level for a 3rd and we go from there. Next week the Trumpster will open up the economy somewhat and the health outlook will improve. I hope we sell off going into the close so I can load up with a basket of foodies.

[jjgold]

Be patient there will be good opportunities

[milwaukee mike]

When the world is all doom and gloom and the end is near is exactly the time to buy stocks. I think the market holds the 19000 level for a 3rd and we go from there. Next week the Trumpster will open up the economy somewhat and the health outlook will improve. I hope we sell off going into the close so I can load up with a basket of foodies.

what stuff do you follow/trade? the only food stocks i play with are bynd and khc

[krk1030]

Restaurant stocks could be in play. When this is over there will be a lot of them going out or business. Those that can survive will thrive in due time.

[d2bets]

When the world is all doom and gloom and the end is near is exactly the time to buy stocks. I think the market holds the 19000 level for a 3rd and we go from there. Next week the Trumpster will open up the economy somewhat and the health outlook will improve. I hope we sell off going into the close so I can load up with a basket of foodies.

19,000 would mean a 15% drop from here.

Opening up could be a temporary sugar high followed by the reality that cases surge again in a couple weeks.

[d2bets]

Restaurant stocks could be in play. When this is over there will be a lot of them going out or business. Those that can survive will thrive in due time.

Good point. The well-managed chains should be OK, but it's going to kill a lot of local spots. And that really sucks.

[d2bets]

Nice chart today after starting down. Wonder if we could go green by the close?

[milwaukee mike]

19,000 would mean a 15% drop from here.

Opening up could be a temporary sugar high followed by the reality that cases surge again in a couple weeks.

i've never seen pneumonia/flu cases surge in the summer, this 18 month talk or "waves" talk isn't scientifically accurate, if things don't reopen for 6 months there is no economy at all to come back to... pretty sure every movie theater/restaurant/mall/hotel would be totally bankrupt if they don't reopen this summer

[d2bets]

i've never seen pneumonia/flu cases surge in the summer, this 18 month talk or "waves" talk isn't scientifically accurate, if things don't reopen for 6 months there is no economy at all to come back to... pretty sure every movie theater/restaurant/mall/hotel would be totally bankrupt if they don't reopen this summer

First of all, we are not in summer in a couple of weeks. This is not typical flu - for one thing it has started much later. Yeah, the flu usually starts Oct/Nov and winds through. This is a different ballgame. Cases are accelerating. It's plain as day. And again, this is not the flu. Say that 10 times.

And nobody said close for 6 months. It seems fairly evident that we are going to continue to accelerate for another 4-8 weeks and then we will decelerate. And different areas will be on their own curves. It actually seems like Seattle area may be on the downslope, because they got hit first. But things will flare up here and there and then probably see a jump in the fall/winter again. How is this going to just go away without a vaccine?

[milwaukee mike]

First of all, we are not in summer in a couple of weeks. This is not typical flu - for one thing it has started much later. Yeah, the flu usually starts Oct/Nov and winds through. This is a different ballgame. Cases are accelerating. It's plain as day. And again, this is not the flu. Say that 10 times.

And nobody said close for 6 months. It seems fairly evident that we are going to continue to accelerate for another 4-8 weeks and then we will decelerate. And different areas will be on their own curves. It actually seems like Seattle area may be on the downslope, because they got hit first. But things will flare up here and there and then probably see a jump in the fall/winter again. How is this going to just go away without a vaccine?

if you don't know that vaccines don't cure diseases then i got nothin' for ya

just need play (dave & busters) to stay above 15 here into the close and i'm rich

[milwaukee mike]

dammit this selloff into the close is kicking my butt on some options plays

[d2bets]

if you don't know that vaccines don't cure diseases then i got nothin' for ya

just need play (dave & busters) to stay above 15 here into the close and i'm rich

I know it doesn't "cure" diseases, but it has effectively killed off many of them.

Sorry about play.

[krk1030]

ADRNY finally taking off like it shoot.

Wish it was on an exchange so I could have bought options for more leverage

[krk1030]

dammit this selloff into the close is kicking my butt on some options plays

Everyone afraid to hold over the weekend with how much things are changing every day

[milwaukee mike]

Everyone afraid to hold over the weekend with how much things are changing every day

yeah that's why i hate having to hold a bunch of dave & busters (had covered calls at 15)... got lucky and just sold 1000 at 15 after hrs

good call on adrny

d2bets are you trading anything lately? i know you like those tech stocks, anything else? i mostly like investments i can drive by and give the middle finger to when i'm buried

[Slurry Pumper]

In the coming week I hope to get some longer term (2+ yrs) dividend yielding stocks like SPH. Someone highlighted my earlier statement on foodies actually just a typo. I'm going after beaten down utilities with big dividends and a larger cap. Then I'll play the XLF etf basket as a weekly side bet, and a little gambling money on a long term cruise line once they take a bigger beat down. You also can't ignore the techs several companies are ready to pop but it's hard to pick which 1. I may start playing the q's (QQQ) like the financials so I don't have to pick and choose so much for now, but the biggest winners will be in the techs.

[Sanity Check]

Market could trend upwards on news of bailout bill passed and signed.

We will see.

[homie1975]

Market could trend upwards on news of bailout bill passed and signed.

We will see.

i think that was already baked in mid to late last week.

[Sanity Check]

i think that was already baked in mid to late last week.

That was the fed's initial injection of $$ into markets.

This is a little different.

[Git Lo]

Market could trend upwards on news of bailout bill passed and signed.

We will see.

why the thumbs up? you actually falling for this shit? not surprised mr 500 iq

[Sanity Check]

why the thumbs up? you actually falling for this shit? not surprised mr 500 iq

Falling for what?

The stimulus bill being full of special interest pork?

Every bill they passed over the last 10-20 years was like that.

I was mad about that 10+ years ago.

Now I don't care as much.

[manny24]

Checker you are missing the point

building money into performing arts sends a clear message that the pandemic really not that serious

unless hillary clinton's granddaughter's piano recital at the kennedy center will cure folks of covid

[milwaukee mike]

Checker you are missing the point

building money into performing arts sends a clear message that the pandemic really not that serious

unless hillary clinton's granddaughter's piano recital at the kennedy center will cure folks of covid

it would probably cure people of insomnia