Stock Market Discussion -- started 03/06/2018 -- updated daily !!!

[milwaukee mike]

[Sanity Check]

https://www.profitconfidential.com/stock-market/stock-market-crash-this-is-what-the-federal-reserve-wont-tell-you/

Anyone curious on what's happening now can read that.

[JIBBBY]

Thank you China for this special gift you bring us all..

[milwaukee mike]

https://www.profitconfidential.com/s...wont-tell-you/


Anyone curious on what's happening now can read that.

i totally disagree with the thought that interest rates will eventually rise... if you include unfunded ss/medicare, the us govt has about 100 trillion of debts ($1 million per household!)

if rates go to 4% that's $4 trillion a year just in interest! and if anyone is paying attention, in a pretty darn good economy lately the government collects about 3.5 trillion... so they wouldn't even be able to pay the interest without running a deficit

[Sanity Check]

i totally disagree with the thought that interest rates will eventually rise... if you include unfunded ss/medicare, the us govt has about 100 trillion of debts ($1 million per household!)

if rates go to 4% that's $4 trillion a year just in interest! and if anyone is paying attention, in a pretty darn good economy lately the government collects about 3.5 trillion... so they wouldn't even be able to pay the interest without running a deficit

If you think that.

You fail to recognize or comprehend the game being played.

Which could be true for 99.9% of people.

[milwaukee mike]

If you think that.

You fail to recognize or comprehend the game being played.

Which could be true for 99.9% of people.

which game?

rates are going to 0 or negative, if not the united states is bankrupt (they are anyway)... we've had to allow mass immigration of people with iq's of 70 just to get gdp growth

if gdp doesn't grow (through bullshit like inflation/wars/immigration) then the house of cards collapses. and how do you get gdp growth with millenials/generation z not willing to BUY BUY BUY CONSUME CONSUME CONSUME

these kids don't even pay for cable, let alone own 20 pairs of pants. everyone sitting at their desk fukking around doesn't make an economy

[grease lightnin]

Mikey you sound like a sour old man. Lol

At the moment, it looks like the market may have decided coronavirus will be the end of the current economic cycle.

Wall Street firms seem split on this idea, but moving more towards my suggestion above every day.

Guitarjosh—where you at on this?

[RoyBacon]

Mikey you sound like a sour old man. Lol

At the moment, it looks like the market may have decided coronavirus will be the end of the current economic cycle.

Wall Street firms seem split on this idea, but moving more towards my suggestion above every day.

Guitarjosh—where you at on this?

The market will steady itself after the 1st qtr releases in late April. So give this choppy action another 6 to 7 weeks.

I bought some stuff yesterday and will be nibbling today too. We probably have another 5% to the down side maybe 10%. But we will rally from the summer on and hit new highs around the election.

[milwaukee mike]

Mikey you sound like a sour old man. Lol

At the moment, it looks like the market may have decided coronavirus will be the end of the current economic cycle.

Wall Street firms seem split on this idea, but moving more towards my suggestion above every day.

Guitarjosh—where you at on this?

i just realize that an economy based on war and deficits isn't sustainable

and all of our kids are lazy and unskilled... try getting painters/roofers/etc, they will all be hispanic

when the hispanics finally take over, do you think they will be giving free food, rent assistance, etc to lazy bums and women with 8 kids from 8 different fathers?

[milwaukee mike]

The market will steady itself after the 1st qtr releases in late April. So give this choppy action another 6 to 7 weeks.

I bought some stuff yesterday and will be nibbling today too. We probably have another 5% to the down side maybe 10%. But we will rally from the summer on and hit new highs around the election.

so you're buying under the anticipation that you would be buying 5-10% cheaper in the near future? seems logical

new highs in 2020, this is too much... since when does a recession last a week

[HockeyRocks]

i just realize that an economy based on war and deficits isn't sustainable

and all of our kids are lazy and unskilled... try getting painters/roofers/etc, they will all be hispanic

when the hispanics finally take over, do you think they will be giving free food, rent assistance, etc to lazy bums and women with 8 kids from 8 different fathers?

Many a time i have hired roofers, painters, yard people etc with mostly hispanic looking workers. Never ever had a problem. These people work hard, do a good job and clean up after themselves. These workers are not the free food people. That is a different segment of our population along with the white trash do nothings...

[RoyBacon]

so you're buying under the anticipation that you would be buying 5-10% cheaper in the near future? seems logical

new highs in 2020, this is too much... since when does a recession last a week

It's basically average costing knowing that no one knows where the bottom is.

Some very solid dividend plays out there in the low tech world that can be sat on at these prices.

[milwaukee mike]

Many a time i have hired roofers, painters, yard people etc with mostly hispanic looking workers. Never ever had a problem. These people work hard, do a good job and clean up after themselves. These workers are not the free food people. That is a different segment of our population along with the white trash do nothings...

oh absolutely, that is my point, the hispanics are about the only people in the us that seem willing/able to do physical labor

[homie1975]

pared down huge losses from the early part of the session to only finish down SPX .82%, DOW 1.39%, and NQ actually finished positive .01%

will this invite more selling on monday for those who missed the boat on dumping ??

[homie1975]

It's basically average costing knowing that no one knows where the bottom is.

Some very solid dividend plays out there in the low tech world that can be sat on at these prices.

ROYer this is exactly what I'm doing.

have learned a ton from all of you here, the past two years.

BTW this thread will be 2Y old next Friday !!

[RoyBacon]

ROYer this is exactly what I'm doing.

have learned a ton from all of you here, the past two years.

BTW this thread will be 2Y old next Friday !!

Very cool!

That was one of the most powerful buying sprees ever in the last 10 minutes. I'll look at it closer later.

We were down -870 with 10 mins to go and finished down -356. 500 points in 10 minutes??? WTF???

[guitarjosh]

Mikey you sound like a sour old man. Lol

At the moment, it looks like the market may have decided coronavirus will be the end of the current economic cycle.

Wall Street firms seem split on this idea, but moving more towards my suggestion above every day.

Guitarjosh—where you at on this?

In terms of where I am on the economy, I don't think this will end the cycle, although it can cause growth to slow. One of the things I look at to gauge economic strength is new home sales. We hit the cycle peak last month. Historically it takes 2.5 - 3 years from the peak to a recession to begin. The shortest time was the peak in August of 1980 to the recession beginning in July of 1981, and that was with record high interest rates. The Fed is expected to cut multiple times from now until the end of the year.

Regarding the stock market itself, I think the smartest play right now is sitting in a money market ETF. It's not very exciting, and the stock market is very oversold while the bond market is very overbought. The problem is that this is a news driven cycle, and more bad news coming out over the weekend can cause stocks to tank, while no bad news or good news coming out can cause a reflex rally. I don't thing investing on essentially coin flips is wise.

[INVEGA MAN]

This is Obama's fault. Trump just said Obama sent democrats over to China to bring VIRUS BACK TO US!! THANK GOD WE GOT PENCE TO GET RID OF VIRUS!! DON JR SAID DEMOCRATS WANT MILLIONS OF REPUBLICANS TO DIE FROM VRUS. DOES VIRUS KNOW WHO IS REPUBLICAN AND DEMOCRAT!! JUST ASKING!!

[RoyBacon]

This is Obama's fault. Trump just said Obama sent democrats over to China to bring VIRUS BACK TO US!! THANK GOD WE GOT PENCE TO GET RID OF VIRUS!! DON JR SAID DEMOCRATS WANT MILLIONS OF REPUBLICANS TO DIE FROM VRUS. DOES VIRUS KNOW WHO IS REPUBLICAN AND DEMOCRAT!! JUST ASKING!!

Have you ever considered an addiction to pain killers?

[milwaukee mike]

pared down huge losses from the early part of the session to only finish down SPX .82%, DOW 1.39%, and NQ actually finished positive .01%

will this invite more selling on monday for those who missed the boat on dumping ??

historically (in my observation at least) it seems like bottoms are on huge capitulation days... stuff like down 5% in the first half hour with a washout and then up 3% at the close

[milwaukee mike]

Have you ever considered an addiction to pain killers?

seems like he's doing more than just CONSIDERING it

[guitarjosh]

historically (in my observation at least) it seems like bottoms are on huge capitulation days... stuff like down 5% in the first half hour with a washout and then up 3% at the close

It can be, but this is news driven. More bad news over the weekend or Bernie outperforms expectations over the next few days and lookout below!

[chico2663]

look this is a fake problem. We gave a big tax deduction to companies and rich. NOW they decide to use this to take profits and will buy back at the lows.YOU can't tell me there was a problem because companies haven't a problem with parts or necessary lack of employees.Companies usually have back stock

[chico2663]

found company that make the test kits. will give it after i buy.

[milwaukee mike]

look this is a fake problem. We gave a big tax deduction to companies and rich. NOW they decide to use this to take profits and will buy back at the lows.YOU can't tell me there was a problem because companies haven't a problem with parts or necessary lack of employees.Companies usually have back stock

i deal with manufacturers and yes they have a problem getting parts from china at the moment

stuff is getting cancelled all over the place, travel getting cancelled, conferences getting cancelled, switzerland just cancelled attendance at all their hockey games, italy cancelled attendance at soccer matches, etc

[chico2663]

yes now but last friday? THE shit started last friday. Don't companies keep back stop. USED to be partners in company that did h.u.d. properties recovery. We had to fix all problems before they would go back on the market. Crackheads would break in and steal pipes. MUSt of had 100 new locks, pipes for at least 10 houses, also boards to cover windows and a few windows per size. So now companies don't keep backstop? Sounds fishy to me.

[dustyy]

Many a time i have hired roofers, painters, yard people etc with mostly hispanic looking workers. Never ever had a problem. These people work hard, do a good job and clean up after themselves. These workers are not the free food people. That is a different segment of our population along with the white trash do nothings...

Damn dude, you sound more like a plantation owner than a Trump hating progressive. Let me guess, "these people" are clean and "well spoken". What the hell do you mean by "these people"? "Mostly hispanic looking workers"?

You are either a closeted racist or an old timer who still uses the term "Japs" to refer to the people of our Asian ally.

Either way, enroll in a sensitivity training class before you start calling all Republicans scum and racists.

Your back handed compliment about people who are different than you says a whole lot about your true beliefs

[Fishhead]

Appears headed under 20,000

Hang on

Sell your homes!!!!

[HockeyRocks]

Damn dude, you sound more like a plantation owner than a Trump hating progressive. Let me guess, "these people" are clean and "well spoken". What the hell do you mean by "these people"? "Mostly hispanic looking workers"?

You are either a closeted racist or an old timer who still uses the term "Japs" to refer to the people of our Asian ally.

Either way, enroll in a sensitivity training class before you start calling all Republicans scum and racists.

Your back handed compliment about people who are different than you says a whole lot about your true beliefs

[dustyy]

Why don't you bold and highlight this response to make your point complete?

I get it, you may be out of touch but you make the comments you made in the earlier post at any workplace in our country and you will find yourself with an audience composed of nothing but Human Resources personnel. Comments such as yours are surprising coming from someone who constantly calls all Republicans as ignorant racists. Then again, maybe not.

[grease lightnin]

Roy and Josh.

I believe there is a 60% chance of what you are suggesting—no recession and the market coming back to the highs this year. On Monday after the close, I would have said 80% chance.

I would hate to see the pain from a recession/bear market. Lost jobs, the over-leveraged getting washed out. But in some ways, I am just like “let’s go already”. We are due, and I have a lot of cash to deploy. Tear off the bandaid

[RoyBacon]

Roy and Josh.

I believe there is a 60% chance of what you are suggesting—no recession and the market coming back to the highs this year. On Monday after the close, I would have said 80% chance.

I would hate to see the pain from a recession/bear market. Lost jobs, the over-leveraged getting washed out. But in some ways, I am just like “let’s go already”. We are due, and I have a lot of cash to deploy. Tear off the bandaid

Short term we could use a parking vehicle.

These type of sell offs usually just need time. I've pegged after the 1st qtr releases in late April because that's when earnings will be revised. Even if it's revised way down, and it will, the markets will rally. They just want to know. Or it could take another qtr. Keep in mind flu-virus season ends in a couple of months.

This one is about the best I've found, 1.7% liquid.

https://www.marcus.com/us/en/savings

[milwaukee mike]

Roy and Josh.

I believe there is a 60% chance of what you are suggesting—no recession and the market coming back to the highs this year. On Monday after the close, I would have said 80% chance.

I would hate to see the pain from a recession/bear market. Lost jobs, the over-leveraged getting washed out. But in some ways, I am just like “let’s go already”. We are due, and I have a lot of cash to deploy. Tear off the bandaid

60%? OK then i have a great deal for you... 2000 point bet at 50/50 odds

you get that DIA hits a new high at any point during 2020, i get that it doesn't

[grease lightnin]

60%? OK then i have a great deal for you... 2000 point bet at 50/50 odds

you get that DIA hits a new high at any point during 2020, i get that it doesn't

Haha. I am good, I already have enough real skin in this game. I agree with the 60% but I am alarmed at the speed of the pullback

[MinnesotaFats]

I dont see mathematically how the market recovers this year if companies miss 1st qtr earning + the ripple effect is misses 2,3,4 and lower yearly guidance.

Everything will be revalued and it'll take more than 1 great qtr to get the money back in, plus we haven't seen the ripple effect of margin from last week. Might see more selling just to cover...