Stock Market Discussion -- started 03/06/2018 -- updated daily !!!

[Slurry Pumper]

Well, we got the all-time high in the SPY yesterday for about an hour or so then it fell away only to fight its way above the $562 support spot by the end of the day. Today is the day the FED comes out to lower rates as expected and then afterwards, he will step up to the podium and lie his ass off. Depending on what he says the markets will swing wildly. There is a sentiment out there for the buy the rumor and sell the news. I'm not on that train. I think we get a governmental boost here from the FED, and how long that last, probably until the SPY gets to $569.50ish. So probably by Friday in my estimation, but maybe later today.

[homie1975]

knocking out ALL BUMS just like muhammad ali

[homie1975]

50 BPS rate cut.

that a boy JEROME !!

[Slurry Pumper]

OK so markets are bumping up to a trend line that dates back to 2008 this morning. Is this a gap and crap ? Who the he'll knows, but it is a good spot for me to take profits from yesterday. If SPY can't get over 570 today, we'll probably see a pullback of some sort. If the SPY can get over the 570 spot on a daily close, we may be of to the races again here.

[homie1975]

Slurry it is GAG AND GO GO GO !!!

[Madison]

First of all, the American consumer is stressed. A recent report from the New York Fed showed that credit card balances reached a new record of $1.14 trillion. Credit card balances are up 48% since early 2021. About 9.1% of credit card balances are delinquent, and so are 8.0% of auto loan balances.

This is not good, folks.

[Madison]

Not as overbought as I may have thought

Around 60% of stocks listed on the New York Stock Exchange("NYSE") are trading above their 200-day moving averages, a simplemeasure of a long-term trend.
That number is not so extreme that it suggests the market isentirely punch-drunk like in early 2021. At that time, more than 90% of thesestocks were trading above long-term trends, suggesting "down" was themost likely next direction for the market – which ultimately happened in 2022.

[Slurry Pumper]

Around 60% of stocks listed on the New York Stock Exchange("NYSE") are trading above their 200-day moving averages, a simplemeasure of a long-term trend.
That number is not so extreme that it suggests the market isentirely punch-drunk like in early 2021. At that time, more than 90% of thesestocks were trading above long-term trends, suggesting "down" was themost likely next direction for the market – which ultimately happened in 2022.

Only 60%, that tells me that market breath is not broad based. I think it's broadening but also see bad things ahead eventually.

[Madison]

Only 60%, that tells me that market breath is not broad based. I think it's broadening but also see bad things ahead eventually.

Pretty well documented where I'm standing 90/10 safe. Have 4 hefty cd's being called. Shame as I loved that guaranteed 5.5%.

[homie1975]

we are dipping due to mideast escalation obviously and now usa port issues with the worker strikes.

[Slurry Pumper]

It's also keeping gold prices up during a time when I thought it was going to rest and come back to around 2500.

[Madison]

Economy

Talking Heads: "Don't look now. Economy Thriving"

Reality: Wifey and I went out for lunch 1pm Outback. 1 person at 20 seat bar. No Greeter. Been going same Outback for 25 years. Never not greeted. Wait staff at bare minimum, and all new faces. 2 tables of 3. Like a ghost town.

Food: Was 5 star for that market of restaurant.

I scored big time in 2007, not by listening to talking heads "Everything's great", but noting the number of "For Sale" signs and doing my due diligence and shorting anything real estate related. See "The Big Short". I was a minnow!

While we're on that subject Peter Lynch (Fidelity/Magellon Fund) "Investing from the Street" book should be a must read for anyone investing in individual stocks. Magellon one of the most prolific funds in history while under his guidance.

All my Best!!

[Madison]

we are dipping due to mideast escalation obviously and now usa port issues with the worker strikes.

Boeing, Dock workers, Teachers, Nurses, UAW, Actors Guild, and on and on. Everyone's getting hefty raises. Dock workers 70% ... Really. How does this NOT cause inflation. There's only one way this gets paid for and that's US, the consumer. Oh, I got it, let's give the public inflation numbers LESS payroll.

Another scam, is the supposed ointment (Social Sec COLA). Circa 2.5% (Out 10/10). OH hurray!! Oh wait a minute that doesn't even cover the cost of the bump in Medicare cost. The elderly are getting the raw end repeatedly.

Rant off:

[blackbox]

AMEN you hit the nail on the head 2,5 COLA and rent increase of 10% each of last 4 years ù

[Slurry Pumper]

That dock worker thing has the potential to be the catalyst for misery. I really don't blame the union for choosing now to strike. It's the best time for them, and if they are going to do it, why not have a starting position of a 70% raise. Go big or go home is the mantra and the current administration pretty much is boxed in to support them in an effort to keep the voting bloc. I see a long-drawn-out conflict here, and in about 2 weeks, we will all start to feel the effects.

For the shorter term however looks like we have some pulling back here. Nothing to be too concerned about until the SPY gets below $561.80 which is my load em up target should we find the price down there.

[Madison]

That dock worker thing has the potential to be the catalyst for misery. I really don't blame the union for choosing now to strike. It's the best time for them, and if they are going to do it, why not have a starting position of a 70% raise. Go big or go home is the mantra and the current administration pretty much is boxed in to support them in an effort to keep the voting bloc. I see a long-drawn-out conflict here, and in about 2 weeks, we will all start to feel the effects.

For the shorter term however looks like we have some pulling back here. Nothing to be too concerned about until the SPY gets below $561.80 which is my load em up target should we find the price down there.

Appreciated!

Thought about you last night as our local TV "Chronicle" did a feature on the Appalachian Trail. Unfortunately, something on my bucket list which will not get done.

[homie1975]

Talking Heads: "Don't look now. Economy Thriving"

Reality: Wifey and I went out for lunch 1pm Outback. 1 person at 20 seat bar. No Greeter. Been going same Outback for 25 years. Never not greeted. Wait staff at bare minimum, and all new faces. 2 tables of 3. Like a ghost town.

Food: Was 5 star for that market of restaurant.

I scored big time in 2007, not by listening to talking heads "Everything's great", but noting the number of "For Sale" signs and doing my due diligence and shorting anything real estate related. See "The Big Short". I was a minnow!

While we're on that subject Peter Lynch (Fidelity/Magellon Fund) "Investing from the Street" book should be a must read for anyone investing in individual stocks. Magellon one of the most prolific funds in history while under his guidance.

All my Best!!

MADDer what city?

here in CA at major cities and nearby suburbs of SD, LA, SF you cannot get a table anywhere between Thurs to Sunday at peak hours.

Outback Steakhouse? come on mannnn LOLOL

[Slurry Pumper]

Well the jobs report shows everything is going great. Of course I don't believe a word of it, but since I trade on the daily mostly, I'll run with it this morning. Along with the port strike being put on hold, we are going to new highs in very short order. So why did the Fed have to cut rates again?

[Crusherrr]

Talking Heads: "Don't look now. Economy Thriving"

Reality: Wifey and I went out for lunch 1pm Outback. 1 person at 20 seat bar. No Greeter. Been going same Outback for 25 years. Never not greeted. Wait staff at bare minimum, and all new faces. 2 tables of 3. Like a ghost town.

I went to a popular Hibachi restaurant next town over (population 35,000) last night (Thursday). Walk in and they ask if we have reservations, which we did not. They take us to the Hibachi room which has 8 Hibachi flat-tops and 10-12 seats around each. We walked in at 6pm and were there until 730pm. We had some sushi and apps so it took a little longer than usual for Hibachi. Our party of 5 was the only table there the whole time. This place used to be full 100+ people any night of the week. People cant spend $150-$250 on Hibachi anymore.

The economy is in shambles and people just want to say wages are at an all time high. Net worth all time high. Well prices are also at an all-time high. The rich are getting richer. Middle-class can't afford life right now.

If they have to keep telling us how good things are, they probably aren't as good as they seem.

[Slurry Pumper]

I went to a popular Hibachi restaurant next town over (population 35,000) last night (Thursday). Walk in and they ask if we have reservations, which we did not. They take us to the Hibachi room which has 8 Hibachi flat-tops and 10-12 seats around each. We walked in at 6pm and were there until 730pm. We had some sushi and apps so it took a little longer than usual for Hibachi. Our party of 5 was the only table there the whole time. This place used to be full 100+ people any night of the week. People cant spend $150-$250 on Hibachi anymore.

The economy is in shambles and people just want to say wages are at an all time high. Net worth all time high. Well prices are also at an all-time high. The rich are getting richer. Middle-class can't afford life right now.

If they have to keep telling us how good things are, they probably aren't as good as they seem.

I live out in the middle of nowhere with a bunch of Mennonite neighbors so seating at any restaurant was never an issue. I have noticed a marked decrease in Amazon / UPS / and even Fed Ex trucks crawling around. Back a few years ago I could drive down the road at almost any time and see 5 to 6 delivery trucks driving around. When I go to the local Lowes, 1st I hardly see anyone who works there, and there aren't massive crowds buying stuff either. All in all, I'm not seeing record breaking activities going on around my area. From the government reports coming out, you would think things are booming.

I do run a Business, and the number of unsolicited resumes hasn't changed either so that is a mark in favor of a booming economy. Usually, I would be getting calls from friends of friends who work for other slurry pumping type companies if they are getting laid off due to a recession.

[Madison]

MADDer what city?

here in CA at major cities and nearby suburbs of SD, LA, SF you cannot get a table anywhere between Thurs to Sunday at peak hours.

Outback Steakhouse? come on mannnn LOLOL

NE MA. Didn't realize the Outback was below you. Living off SS and investments here. Just a peon here.

Actually, I don't think we have many reasonable varied menu higher end options here. There are a few but not too many.

[Madison]

Well the jobs report shows everything is going great. Of course I don't believe a word of it, but since I trade on the daily mostly, I'll run with it this morning. Along with the port strike being put on hold, we are going to new highs in very short order. So why did the Fed have to cut rates again?

It just doesn't compute to me. Businesses struggling, Nearly ever talking head including Homie "Goldilocks". Yet the next word from them is why not another 6 .25 cuts in the next 15 months. WHY????

And maybe one of you can explain why the US is the leading petroleum exporter and we haven't filled the SPR?? Too many things are not adding up.

[Madison]

I live out in the middle of nowhere with a bunch of Mennonite neighbors so seating at any restaurant was never an issue. I have noticed a marked decrease in Amazon / UPS / and even Fed Ex trucks crawling around. Back a few years ago I could drive down the road at almost any time and see 5 to 6 delivery trucks driving around. When I go to the local Lowes, 1st I hardly see anyone who works there, and there aren't massive crowds buying stuff either. All in all, I'm not seeing record breaking activities going on around my area. From the government reports coming out, you would think things are booming.

I do run a Business, and the number of unsolicited resumes hasn't changed either so that is a mark in favor of a booming economy. Usually, I would be getting calls from friends of friends who work for other slurry pumping type companies if they are getting laid off due to a recession.

Agreed. I'm getting a bit worried these numbers are getting "baked" China like. What's real? Until my final day when I go to gamblers heaven (hopefully not hell lol) I swear the migrants and lower income are pumping the #'s and the 50ish higher income middle class is getting laid off and working at the Super Market competing with them. I see it everywhere. Went for breakfast last week and I swear the lady who served us was closing in on 80.

[Slurry Pumper]

Markets overall have been range bound for the better part of 3 weeks now with the North end measuring $574.75ish on the SPY and the South side coming in around $562. Yesterday's close at $573.70 puts the current level up to challenge the North end this morning. Overall, the charts look like a bull flag situation but until the $574.75 spot is breached and closed on a daily basis, we remain range bound with no real action.

[Madison]

Agreed. I'm getting a bit worried these numbers are getting "baked" China like. What's real? Until my final day when I go to gamblers heaven (hopefully not hell lol) I swear the migrants and lower income are pumping the #'s and the 50ish higher income middle class is getting laid off and working at the Super Market competing with them. I see it everywhere. Went for breakfast last week and I swear the lady who served us was closing in on 80.

And why the FAWK does the GOV keep adding jobs at this rate? They were circa 50% of the recent jobs report. They can't reduce the national debt or agree on a budget but they keep hiring. Pensions anyone??

[d2bets]

Stonks continue to rip.
God Bless America!

[Madison]

Stonks continue to rip.
God Bless America!

I think Jim Jones said something similar. "Just drink a little of this delicious lemonade".

[Madison]

After a brutal year of layoffs in 2023, companies this year have continued to cut jobs across tech, media, finance, manufacturing, and retail.
Tech titans like IBM, Google, and Microsoft; finance leaders like Goldman Sachs, Citi, and BlackRock; accounting firms like PwC; entertainment behemoths like Pixar and Paramount; and corporate giants like Tesla, Dow, and Nike have all announced layoffs.
A survey in late December said nearly 40% of business leaders had expected layoffs this year, ResumeBuilder said. ResumeBuilder talked to about 900 leaders at organizations with more than 10 employees. Half of those surveyed cited concerns about a recession as a reason for potential layoffs.

[d2bets]

After a brutal year of layoffs in 2023, companies this year have continued to cut jobs across tech, media, finance, manufacturing, and retail.
Tech titans like IBM, Google, and Microsoft; finance leaders like Goldman Sachs, Citi, and BlackRock; accounting firms like PwC; entertainment behemoths like Pixar and Paramount; and corporate giants like Tesla, Dow, and Nike have all announced layoffs.
A survey in late December said nearly 40% of business leaders had expected layoffs this year, ResumeBuilder said. ResumeBuilder talked to about 900 leaders at organizations with more than 10 employees. Half of those surveyed cited concerns about a recession as a reason for potential layoffs.

That's because AI is replacing them all. And then they can get hired to work on the AI. Natural stuff. The layoffs are not because IBM, Google and Microsoft are struggling. Come on. They're making record profits.

[teecee]

Stonks continue to rip.
God Bless America!

Stocks continuing to rise sucks if you want to buy. No?

[homie1975]

Stocks continuing to rise sucks if you want to buy. No?

always a good time to buy. dollar cost average if you need to.

but by waiting, you will simply be buying higher in the future, most likely.

cannot time it.

i have been preaching this for 6.5 years now.

[Madison]

dollar cost average if you need to. YOU NEED TO!!

[Slurry Pumper]

I come down on timing the market, and now is the best time to time it. Go ahead and cost average like the others have touted, but wait a couple of months and let things happen for a while here. If the other guys are correct you'll pay a little more, but if it all falls apart in the next couple months you may find things are on sale.

[Slurry Pumper]

Well, I went through all my charts as I do every weekend, and my tin foil hat is picking up a signal that may say bad things are ahead. I'm not sure what it is yet, maybe it is just a rerun of Hogan's Heroes, but then again, the charts are showing divergences all over the place with the VIX, SPY, QQQ, and Dow transports. Things still look bullish right now, but I will be looking for the QQQ to make a gap fill on the daily chart, and then I predict there is some pullback action coming, and probably a decent pullback.

This will be an interesting week,

[homie1975]