Stock Market Discussion -- started 03/06/2018 -- updated daily !!!

[Madison]

Not sure I disclosed but I got out of a majority of TER (recommended a few months circa 95) circa 143. Under the premise "Nobody ever went broke taking a profit". On the downside I sold a large chunk of NVDA last year around 400, so I guess you have to be ready to swallow hard sometimes. Made a huge profit but still doesn't dull the pain of watching it at 1000.

[homie1975]

An area I certainly could be more adept at and would love to learn more "Momentum Investing".

The market is a curious thing, but one thing you can be sure momentum in either direction is a powerful thing.

BOL Bud.

my method is not very complicated nor scientific.

when i have time (it is not every day nor every week) i watch the ticker symbols scroll at bottom of screen on CNBC.

i take note of all the symbols i do not already know.

i look them up to find out the nature of their business.

i look up their charts from 1 month all the way back to 1Y and 5Y.

if i like what i see over the last 6 mos to 1Y, i nibble.

rinse and repeat.

yes, it ends up being 150 stocks with nibbles, but the aggregate is a good thing!

if they retreat for any reason other than bad earnings or bad guidance (so a retreat due to a larger pullback in the market), i add a tiny bit more to my initial nibble.

i check the list every quarter. i sell the laggards and hold on to the winners.

[Madison]

I do likewise. Maybe checkout "Market Beat" as they have 3 month momentum chart for your holdings. So tired of Zacks, Chucky recommended guy offering COPX after it's up 50% etc. Latest was someone suggesting TER recently. What a genius, it's up 50% in 6 weeks.

I happen to like "Invester Place" Luke Longo, Navelier, etc. They can certainly be wrong but at least they try to get you in early to positions.

All my best!

[Madison]

my method is not very complicated nor scientific.

when i have time (it is not every day nor every week) i watch the ticker symbols scroll at bottom of screen on CNBC.

i take note of all the symbols i do not already know.

i look them up to find out the nature of their business.

i look up their charts from 1 month all the way back to 1Y and 5Y.

if i like what i see over the last 6 mos to 1Y, i nibble.

rinse and repeat.

yes, it ends up being 150 stocks with nibbles, but the aggregate is a good thing!

if they retreat for any reason other than bad earnings or bad guidance (so a retreat due to a larger pullback in the market), i add a tiny bit more to my initial nibble.

i check the list every quarter. i sell the laggards and hold on to the winners.

You've got me by 20 years, but a significant 20. Where are you on Fintech banking? I do keep in contact with the younger gens. I have a good bit in SOFI at a reasonable CB. Wondering what you think about this one??

[homie1975]

You've got me by 20 years, but a significant 20. Where are you on Fintech banking? I do keep in contact with the younger gens. I have a good bit in SOFI at a reasonable CB. Wondering what you think about this one??

i'm not very good in this space at timing.

in fintech i have not done well on Block, PayPayl, nor Affirm.

did okay on Upstart.

I always seem to get drawn to fintech names but they scare me a bit like biotech and pharma stocks, because while they can really go up, the majority seem to really thank.

i don't know.

stocks wise, Today i bought GPS and BMA

[d2bets]

NVDA just never ends. Less than $1T to $3T in less than 7 months. 10:1 split after the close on Friday. Never been anything quit like that.

[Madison]

i'm not very good in this space at timing.

in fintech i have not done well on Block, PayPayl, nor Affirm.

did okay on Upstart.

I always seem to get drawn to fintech names but they scare me a bit like biotech and pharma stocks, because while they can really go up, the majority seem to really thank.

i don't know.

stocks wise, Today i bought GPS and BMA

I don't do BIO. I've dabbled in XBI but the whole area is to volatile for me.

Right now I have a ton in fixed income (5%) , just not seeing a lot of upside to dip my other 20%.

BOL Bud!!

[Madison]

i'm not very good in this space at timing.

in fintech i have not done well on Block, PayPayl, nor Affirm.

did okay on Upstart.

I always seem to get drawn to fintech names but they scare me a bit like biotech and pharma stocks, because while they can really go up, the majority seem to really thank.

i don't know.

stocks wise, Today i bought GPS and BMA

I do think SOFI is worth a small dip.

[homie1975]

today on dips i added more to these positions i already hold:

VST
VRT
MOD
CAVA

these stocks have been very good to me on paper the past several mos so i do not mind
nibbling a bit more on these pullbacks even though I am raising my cost base slightly

so,
here is where i have changed in the last 6 years: (lessons learned the hard way)

- i will sell laggards and slow movers. i hate seeing money stagnant or dropping for any extended period of time. i am no longer a pure "buy and hold" guy. i do not get married to any stock or company anymore.

- i not only buy on dips, i also buy on rises if the skies appear to be clear and sunny for the foreseeable future.

- i do not necessarily buy any good company that gets crushed on earnings and/or guidance and appears to be "on sale". i find it can take more than 2 quarters and sometimes years to get them back on good footing. that is too long for me.

- i do not avoid a stock just because it is at all time highs. as roy bacon taught me, if you backtest it, new highs beget more new highs. momentum is a real thing in stocks.

[Madison]

Full Disclosure: I have lost $$ the last month or so while the market hovers at all-time highs. In the interest of "Preservation of Capital" I am selling a bunch of my holdings, and I am now 95% fixed income.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Full Disclosure: I have lost $$ the last month or so while the market hovers at all-time highs. In the interest of "Preservation of Capital" I am selling a bunch of my holdings, and I am now 95% fixed income.

Madison, Good Luck. Not sure I like that.

95% seems too high. Fiat de-basement in play. What about Metals?

[veriableodds]

Full Disclosure: I have lost $$ the last month or so while the market hovers at all-time highs. In the interest of "Preservation of Capital" I am selling a bunch of my holdings, and I am now 95% fixed income.

Sounds like me. 50% fixed income like swvxx, and short-term cd's. If I see a future fed rate cut coming, then I will ladder away all the way out to ten years. 30% sp500 like in the x's spider etf's (xlb, xlf, xle, xlre ect.. way better than a general market boggle head like, vti, vt, voo) 10% commodity (gold, silver, oil, copper, ect) the ones that pay high monthly dividends like credit Suisse. 10% super high monthly dividend payers like (oxlc, ymax, svol, tltw ect ect..) mostly bonds. Not only can I preserve capital but produce more income than I will ever spend. Most months I reinvest up to 25% of the dividends back into money market

[ChuckyTheGoat]

I do likewise. Maybe checkout "Market Beat" as they have 3 month momentum chart for your holdings. So tired of Zacks, Chucky recommended guy offering COPX after it's up 50% etc. Latest was someone suggesting TER recently. What a genius, it's up 50% in 6 weeks.

I happen to like "Invester Place" Luke Longo, Navelier, etc. They can certainly be wrong but at least they try to get you in early to positions.

All my best!

I view SCCO/COPX as very good stabilizer stocks. Should go up slowly. Hard for me to see these going down much.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Sounds like me. 50% fixed income like swvxx, and short-term cd's. If I see a future fed rate cut coming, then I will ladder away all the way out to ten years. 30% sp500 like in the x's spider etf's (xlb, xlf, xle, xlre ect.. way better than a general market boggle head like, vti, vt, voo) 10% commodity (gold, silver, oil, copper, ect) the ones that pay high monthly dividends like credit Suisse. 10% super high monthly dividend payers like (oxlc, ymax, svol, tltw ect ect..) mostly bonds. Not only can I preserve capital but produce more income than I will ever spend. Most months I reinvest up to 25% of the dividends back into money market

Veri, I think this is smart. Inflation trends are undeniable now.

One needs to strive for a Return on their $$. USD is de-basing. Need to stay ahead of inflation.

[Madison]

In short, it's all age and net worth dependent. I'm fortunate enough to be +2 or 3k every month with SS and investments.

For those approaching retirement, and possibly everyone, what I did 5 years or so ago was create a simple spreadsheet with about 20 or 30 categories, with fixed and variable for expenses and income. Best thing I did as now I know pretty much where every dollar is coming and going monthly.

Best to all!

[veriableodds]

In short, it's all age and net worth dependent. I'm fortunate enough to be +2 or 3k every month with SS and investments.

For those approaching retirement, and possibly everyone, what I did 5 years or so ago was create a simple spreadsheet with about 20 or 30 categories, with fixed and variable for expenses and income. Best thing I did as now I know pretty much where every dollar is coming and going monthly.

Best to all!

Market is all age based. Movement is death unless you risk small and can understand true, I mean real true trends and ride those out till a reverse. (that involves far less movement) Options are juice on steroids never going to get far. Day trading and all that bunk are sucker wagers. Only movement I do is withdraw the passive income and put some back every month. Thats why I don't participate much in these type topics. I have been the same for like 12 years+ no need for restructure.

[homie1975]

JOSHer any new plays you are watching or recently invested in?

I opened recent positions in:

CB
BMA
GPS
BCO
AER
AZN

[Madison]

S&P 500 index funds saw the biggest outflows on record last week, according to data from Lipper’s global fund flows.
In the week ending June 12, S&P 500 exchange-traded funds saw outflows of $17.4 billion, even as the index advanced by 1.25% over that same time frame.
More broadly, exchange-traded equity funds saw $14.7 billion in outflows, the largest weekly outflow since the week ending Dec. 12, 2021.

May have been me making my sell play. LOL

[homie1975]

Fslr

[homie1975]

and.....

POWL
TDW
WSM

[Madison]

The man of everlasting faith/confidence. LOL. BOL.

[Madison]

Courtesy of Zacks:

Even though we are in the midst of a strong bull market, which has seen aseries of new highs after new highs this year, the market prior to that hadgone 24 long months without setting a new high even once.
And it was only in January of this year that we finally eclipsed theprevious all-time highs from January 2022.
I point this out because history shows in the previous 14 times when theS&P has gone at least a full year without a new high, and then finally madeone - a year later it was higher in 13 out of those 14 times, and up nearly 15%on average.
Another interesting statistic, which points back to the big gains we saw inNovember of last year, bodes well for more gains to come this year.
Once again, history shows that when the S&P was up by more than 8% in asingle month (November 2023 was up by 8.91%), (this has happened 30 times since1950), a year later the index was higher in 27 out of those 30 times (that's90% of the time), with an average return of 15.8%.
Pretty compelling stats.
It also sets a bullish tone for all of the other factors working in themarket's favor this year.

[Madison]

The Arabs just sold xxMil shares to dump stock from 7-6.45.

Here's the guy (owner) I've been promoting:

SoFi Technologies, Inc. (NASDAQ:SOFI - Get Free Report) CEO Anthony Noto acquired 30,715 shares of the company's stock in a transaction on Friday, June 14th. The stock was bought at an average cost of $6.48 per share, with a total value of $199,033.20. Following the completion of the acquisition, the chief executive officer now directly owns 8,121,844 shares in the company, valued at $52,629,549.12.

You go figure it out!!!

[homie1975]

The man of everlasting faith/confidence. LOL. BOL.

if they dip i will simply hold or buy more, simple as that.

i will check again after 2 quarters. if they are laggards I will sell and rotate into something better.

rinse and repeat.

[homie1975]

Courtesy of Zacks:

Even though we are in the midst of a strong bull market, which has seen aseries of new highs after new highs this year, the market prior to that hadgone 24 long months without setting a new high even once.
And it was only in January of this year that we finally eclipsed theprevious all-time highs from January 2022.
I point this out because history shows in the previous 14 times when theS&P has gone at least a full year without a new high, and then finally madeone - a year later it was higher in 13 out of those 14 times, and up nearly 15%on average.
Another interesting statistic, which points back to the big gains we saw inNovember of last year, bodes well for more gains to come this year.
Once again, history shows that when the S&P was up by more than 8% in asingle month (November 2023 was up by 8.91%), (this has happened 30 times since1950), a year later the index was higher in 27 out of those 30 times (that's90% of the time), with an average return of 15.8%.
Pretty compelling stats.
It also sets a bullish tone for all of the other factors working in themarket's favor this year.

this is exactly what RoyBacon said in here circa 2018.

if you backtest it, you will see New Highs beget more Highs. trying to time it is a fool's errand.

[Madison]

A very well written objective article worth your time.

The Shiller P/E ratio has surpassed 30 six times in 153 years, and the previous five instances were all associated with pullbacks in the S&P 500, Dow, or Nasdaq Composite ranging from 20% to as much as 89%. Based on what history has told us about extended valuations, a meaningful move lower -- and perhaps even a short-lived "crash" -- may await.

Is the Stock Market Going to Crash? 153 Years of Valuation History Weighs In and Provides a Big Clue. (msn.com)

[homie1975]

A very well written objective article worth your time.

The Shiller P/E ratio has surpassed 30 six times in 153 years, and the previous five instances were all associated with pullbacks in the S&P 500, Dow, or Nasdaq Composite ranging from 20% to as much as 89%. Based on what history has told us about extended valuations, a meaningful move lower -- and perhaps even a short-lived "crash" -- may await.

Is the Stock Market Going to Crash? 153 Years of Valuation History Weighs In and Provides a Big Clue. (msn.com)

yes but diametrically opposed to what is written above in the other article?

fair to say that modern day PE's should be considered less than PEG ratio's due to the overall growth multiple that has supercharged stocks the last 25 years?

[guitarjosh]

I think we bounce a little here, especially the small caps and mid caps. I still have a lot of concern about the economy. Transportation relative to the S&P 500 is at its lowest level since the bottom of the Covid shutdown. Railroad and trucking companies are falling off a cliff. Jobless claims are at their highest levels since last year and are close to being at their highest levels since 2021. Multiple recession indicators that use the unemployment rate are triggering. The most famous, the Sahm Rule hasn't triggered yet since it's only at .37, not .5. The thing is that since the early 50s, .37 has the same track record calling recessions as .5. You just find out you're in a recession 1-2 months on average before .5.

[homie1975]

^^^ JOSHer when things eased last year at the start of 2023 and they continued throughout the year after the GAWD-awful 2022, many companies especially in Tech overhired IMO and a lot of those companies and positions are under stress so yes I see layoffs coming real soon.

[Madison]

I think we bounce a little here, especially the small caps and mid caps. I still have a lot of concern about the economy. Transportation relative to the S&P 500 is at its lowest level since the bottom of the Covid shutdown. Railroad and trucking companies are falling off a cliff. Jobless claims are at their highest levels since last year and are close to being at their highest levels since 2021. Multiple recession indicators that use the unemployment rate are triggering. The most famous, the Sahm Rule hasn't triggered yet since it's only at .37, not .5. The thing is that since the early 50s, .37 has the same track record calling recessions as .5. You just find out you're in a recession 1-2 months on average before .5.

Always appreciated!!

[Slurry Pumper]

I'm back SBR, I hope you didn't miss me too much. I spent the last couple of months marching around the Appalachian trail completely off the grid just hanging out with the wild, I need about 3 days to figure out what is going on the in markets but just wanted to say I'm back and ready to trade. I'd like to thank my kids wife Mrs. Little Slurry Pumper for keeping the bidness together in my absence as I know her husband is a complete idiot and wouldn't be up to the task.

[Poker_Beast]

Welcome back Slurry. Wondered what the hell happened to you.

[homie1975]

Hell Yeah SLURRY !!!

[Slurry Pumper]

You need to take time to get away from the modern world and take notice of the natural world. It's brutal but it recenter you.
Anyway, looks like the markets are doing the same melting up operation as they were doing before I left. I hesitate to buy up here for the long term but since I mostly day and swing trade, I think the data today on retail sales will be mixed and thus a no trade for me today unless the SPY revisits the $546.50ish area.

[Madison]

You need to take time to get away from the modern world and take notice of the natural world. It's brutal but it recenter you.
Anyway, looks like the markets are doing the same melting up operation as they were doing before I left. I hesitate to buy up here for the long term but since I mostly day and swing trade, I think the data today on retail sales will be mixed and thus a no trade for me today unless the SPY revisits the $546.50ish area.

Welcome Back! If I were 20 years healthier I would have gone with ya.