Stock Market Discussion -- started 03/06/2018 -- updated daily !!!

**Madison** · 05-10-24, 10:42 AM

Source: Wirestock Creators / Shutterstock.com

In my view, Lithium Americas (NYSE:LAC) stock trading under $5 is a gift. Once sentiments reverse for lithium, LAC stock is likely to go ballistic from deeply undervalued levels.

To put things into perspective, Lithium Americas has a current market valuation of $990 million. In comparison, the after-tax net present value of Thacker Pass asset is $5.7 billion. Purely based on asset valuation, the stock can be a six-bagger from current levels.

However, if we look beyond this, the Thacker Pass has a mine life of 40 years. Once both the phases of the lithium asset are commercialized, the annual EBITDA from the asset is likely at $2 billion. Clearly, operating, and free cash flows will be robust. Further, estimates can change on the upside if lithium skyrockets due to supply-gap concerns in the coming years.

I would therefore buy and hold LAC stock. With commercialization of the Thacker Pass asset due in 2027, multibagger returns are likely before that as the markets discount the cash flow potential.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 05-10-24, 12:15 PM

Thx, MAD. Yes, I'm holding LAC. Will look to add more.

I have noticed that Junk Silver prices are rising.

**Madison** · 05-17-24, 04:58 PM

Fearless leader and others charting transports:

Kind of looks like there's some cracks, no?

**Madison** · 05-19-24, 09:19 AM

Originally posted by Madison

Fearless leader and others charting transports:

Kind of looks like there's some cracks, no?

This from Stansberry ... I thought transports were down???

Editor's note: Historically, the transportation sector has been a good indicator of things to come in the market.
If stocks seem great but transportation stocks are lagging, it's a warning sign for the overall market. But if transportation stocks are hitting new highs, that means the future of the stock market is bright...

That's why Ten Stock Trader editor Greg Diamond says it's critical for investors to be aware of the current state of the transportation sector in an effort to determine how to navigate the broad market moving forward.

In today's Masters Series, originally from the April 29 Weekly Market Outlook issue, Greg explains why transportation stocks are performing well right now... and details how this uptrend indicates a broad market rally is underway...

**guitarjosh** · 05-19-24, 02:36 PM

Originally posted by Madison

Fearless leader and others charting transports:

Kind of looks like there's some cracks, no?

Yeah, I'm seeing that too. Trucks vs S&P 500 broke through a trend line going back several years. Rails vs S&P 500 is the lowest since at least Covid.

Check out how discretionary is doing compared to staples too.

It's like we're seeing 2 economies, the Wall Street listed economy is doing okay, while Main Street is doing horribly.

**Madison** · 05-20-24, 04:30 PM

Originally posted by guitarjosh

Yeah, I'm seeing that too. Trucks vs S&P 500 broke through a trend line going back several years. Rails vs S&P 500 is the lowest since at least Covid.

Check out how discretionary is doing compared to staples too.

It's like we're seeing 2 economies, the Wall Street listed economy is doing okay, while Main Street is doing horribly.

I'm seeing a big divergence in demographics. Baby Boomers bereft of fixed income earnings for 10yrs or more have seen a 2 year resurrection of safe income at circa 5%. Take the conservative percent of institutional and my senior dad (depending on 5% CD's years ago) and the elder generation is seeing a HUGE (for them) increase in disposable income; the Boomers are keeping the economy liquid.

Rick Reader made an interesting point on Bloomberg Week that the economy may actually contract if interest rates go down??

All my best!

**guitarjosh** · 05-21-24, 04:46 PM

Originally posted by Madison

Fearless leader and others charting transports:

Kind of looks like there's some cracks, no?

Check out railroads and trucks today...

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 05-21-24, 05:03 PM

Originally posted by guitarjosh

Check out railroads and trucks today...

Josh, any stock symbols you like?

**guitarjosh** · 05-22-24, 12:02 AM

Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat

Josh, any stock symbols you like?

I'm watching these, but I don't own any, I'm waiting for a pullback.

COOP
NXPI
AXP
VCTR
AROC
CMG
GSL
TXRH
FN
WES
CVLT
ETN
IBKR
TT
GRMN
ANET
SPXC
IESC
PSTG
CAMT
HWM
MMYT
EME
HMY
VRT

**Madison** · 05-22-24, 08:02 AM

Per Stansberry:

Many people start paying attention when the index hits extremelevels of fear. But as Chris noted in DailyWealth Trader today, a VIXreading this low is significant, too, because it points to outperformance fromU.S. stocks in the following months and year.
He looked at each case since 1990 when the VIX dropped to 12,where it closed on Friday. On average, the S&P 500 gained roughly 5% in sixmonths and 9.5% a year later. That beats the U.S. benchmark's average 4%six-month return and 8.1% annual return.
As Chris noted, "The outperformance might not be massive. Butwhat's impressive is the win rate after one of these events." As hewrote...
The S&P 500 was up 86% of the time six months later... and 84%of the time over the next year. Those are darn good odds.
Meanwhile, the maximum gain after one of these events was 37% overa year. And the largest drop was 12%.
In short, yes, the market is going through an eerie period ofcalm. But that doesn't mean that panic has to follow.

**Madison** · 05-22-24, 08:06 AM

Originally posted by guitarjosh

I'm watching these, but I don't own any, I'm waiting for a pullback.

COOP
NXPI
AXP
VCTR
AROC
CMG
GSL
TXRH
FN
WES
CVLT
ETN
IBKR
TT
GRMN
ANET
SPXC
IESC
PSTG
CAMT
HWM
MMYT
EME
HMY
VRT

I'm doing really well with HWM. Had VRT on my watch last year and all I did was watch it go the moon. Uggghhhh.

**Madison** · 05-22-24, 11:03 AM

Originally posted by guitarjosh

I'm watching these, but I don't own any, I'm waiting for a pullback.

COOP
NXPI
AXP
VCTR
AROC
CMG
GSL
TXRH
FN
WES
CVLT
ETN
IBKR
TT
GRMN
ANET
SPXC
IESC
PSTG
CAMT
HWM
MMYT
EME
HMY
VRT

Josher, what percent of your portfolio do have "Waiting for a Pullback"?

Of my investable amount I have about 60-70 percent.

**d2bets** · 05-22-24, 11:18 AM

NVDA reports after the bell.

What we think?

**guitarjosh** · 05-22-24, 03:14 PM

Originally posted by Madison

Josher, what percent of your portfolio do have "Waiting for a Pullback"?

Of my investable amount I have about 60-70 percent.

I usually put 2.5%-3% on a stock position, and have no problem using margin.

**d2bets** · 05-23-24, 08:41 AM

NVDA never disappoints. Just wow.

**JAKEPEAVY21** · 05-23-24, 09:37 AM

Originally posted by d2bets

NVDA never disappoints. Just wow.

Unbelievable! Between NVDA and Ethereum it has been a heck of a week!

**Madison** · 05-23-24, 02:51 PM

Talk about "Buy In". This guy is bright and ALL IN on his company. I own circa $6 per share , and would recommend buying here if you're new to this stock.

SoFi Technologies, Inc. (NASDAQ:SOFI - Get Free Report) CEO Anthony Noto acquired 28,900 shares of the firm's stock in a transaction dated Thursday, May 23rd. The shares were purchased at an average price of $6.92 per share, with a total value of $199,988.00. Following the completion of the transaction, the chief executive officer now owns 8,062,269 shares of the company's stock, valued at $55,790,901.48. The acquisition was disclosed in a filing with the SEC, which is available through the SEC website.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 05-23-24, 04:12 PM

Originally posted by guitarjosh

I'm watching these, but I don't own any, I'm waiting for a pullback.

COOP
NXPI
AXP
VCTR
AROC
CMG
GSL
TXRH
FN
WES
CVLT
ETN
IBKR
TT
GRMN
ANET
SPXC
IESC
PSTG
CAMT
HWM
MMYT
EME
HMY
VRT

Giddyup, Josh. Good Luck.

**homie1975** · 05-23-24, 08:30 PM

Originally posted by guitarjosh

I'm watching these, but I don't own any, I'm waiting for a pullback.

COOP
NXPI
AXP
VCTR
AROC
CMG
GSL
TXRH
FN
WES
CVLT
ETN
IBKR
TT
GRMN
ANET
SPXC
IESC
PSTG
CAMT
HWM
MMYT
EME
HMY
VRT

Josh
thank you so much for sharing.
i own many of these names, having bought them in Jan and Feb.
why?
they had insane momentum.
1Y charts soaring.

the ones on your list that i don't own? i just went into my Robinhood acct, looked them up, saw the chart, and put $250 in each of these that I do not own yet.

i love your list.

i respectfully disagree with trying to wait for a pullback.

i condone getting in right now with at least a small nibble (such as my $250 each).

dip your toe in and if any pull back, you can start to build the position.

cheers and great to see you posting!

**d2bets** · 05-28-24, 03:12 PM

Nvidia up over 7% again, adding nearly another 200 bil market cap. Ho hum. Quickly closing in on Apple, then Microsoft. Has now nearly tripled from $1T to $2.8T market cap since the end of October. Almost outrageous.

**Madison** · 05-29-24, 02:28 PM

Originally posted by d2bets

Nvidia up over 7% again, adding nearly another 200 bil market cap. Ho hum. Quickly closing in on Apple, then Microsoft. Has now nearly tripled from $1T to $2.8T market cap since the end of October. Almost outrageous.

All, Nvdia aside please take caution, The underlaying Russell and elsewhere are portraying storm clouds on the horizon.

**trobin31** · 05-29-24, 03:06 PM

Originally posted by Madison

All, Nvdia aside please take caution, The underlaying Russell and elsewhere are portraying storm clouds on the horizon.

Things look very tenuous indeed. Transports well below weekly 50MA

**guitarjosh** · 05-29-24, 04:30 PM

Originally posted by trobin31

Things look very tenuous indeed. Transports well below weekly 50MA

Transports tanked today primarily due to American Airlines changing their profit forecasts, but rails and trucks were again down over 1%.

I think the market is getting a bit technically oversold, so I wouldn't be surprised if we get a 3%-5% bounce by late June, but transports are telling a very scary story.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 05-29-24, 08:03 PM

Originally posted by guitarjosh

Transports tanked today primarily due to American Airlines changing their profit forecasts, but rails and trucks were again down over 1%.

I think the market is getting a bit technically oversold, so I wouldn't be surprised if we get a 3%-5% bounce by late June, but transports are telling a very scary story.

Seems like Funny Money nowadays, josh. Inflation way too much.

Props on your posts. Appreciate the education.

**Art Vandelay** · 05-29-24, 10:10 PM

Guys, quick question on Nvidia - 10/1 stock split coming on June 7th - Buy now or wait?

**homie1975** · 05-31-24, 02:50 PM

Originally posted by guitarjosh

I'm watching these, but I don't own any, I'm waiting for a pullback.

COOP
NXPI
AXP
VCTR
AROC
CMG
GSL
TXRH
FN
WES
CVLT
ETN
IBKR
TT
GRMN
ANET
SPXC
IESC
PSTG
CAMT
HWM
MMYT
EME
HMY
VRT

JOSHer
your list is doing tremendous in aggregate. only a few laggards who are barely down.
most way up.

any changes to the list? additions or deletions ?

**guitarjosh** · 05-31-24, 03:23 PM

Originally posted by homie1975

JOSHer
your list is doing tremendous in aggregate. only a few laggards who are barely down.
most way up.

any changes to the list? additions or deletions ?

AER, BCO, & LLY are good companies but I'd be careful, they're a bit overbought. I don't own them and haven't put anyone in them.

**homie1975** · 05-31-24, 07:00 PM

Originally posted by guitarjosh

AER, BCO, & LLY are good companies but I'd be careful, they're a bit overbought. I don't own them and haven't put anyone in them.

I do not own AER nor BCO but I do own LLY and it has been very good to me.

It makes up for the hurt and then some on the PLUG, ZOOM and RIVN losses I took

I have added AER and BCO to my watchlist.

Thank you Sir and Good Health.

**Madison** · 06-01-24, 01:09 PM

Total household debt rose by $184 billion to reach a staggering
$17.69 trillion by the end of Q1 2024. Critically, the New York Fed reportedthat almost 9% of credit card balances and 8% of auto loans (annualized) hadtransitioned into delinquency, with rising numbers across all age group.

**homie1975** · 06-03-24, 02:21 PM

Originally posted by guitarjosh

AER, BCO, & LLY are good companies but I'd be careful, they're a bit overbought. I don't own them and haven't put anyone in them.

Today I bought AER, BCO per your recommendation.

I also added AZN. Their lung cancer drug has done really well in trials.

Another one to watch: VIK

Ones that might be rebounding here:

SE
RIVN
SBUX
UNH
QS
NKE

**Madison** · 06-03-24, 04:15 PM

Originally posted by homie1975

Today I bought AER, BCO per your recommendation.

I also added AZN. Their lung cancer drug has done really well in trials.

Another one to watch: VIK

Ones that might be rebounding here:

SE
RIVN
SBUX
UNH
QS
NKE

UNH has seemingly strong support 470-480 (Buy). Seems to be ceiling circa 530 recently. I'm actively adding/reducing as such.

**Madison** · 06-03-24, 04:19 PM

FLNC is one you all need to be watching at a minimum. Buy under 18 or so, sell? over 25. I've been here for several years and doing quite well. Have actually built a pretty significant (for me) CB circa 17. This is the future!!

**Madison** · 06-03-24, 04:35 PM

Originally posted by homie1975

Today I bought AER, BCO per your recommendation.

I also added AZN. Their lung cancer drug has done really well in trials.

Another one to watch: VIK

Ones that might be rebounding here:

SE
RIVN
SBUX
UNH
QS
NKE

Homie ... You are a well documented buy and holder. Over the years you have also expressed your dislike for buying ATH's. A month or so ago you bought SMCI at or near ATH's which caught my attention (surprised me). I'm curious of your thoughts since the stock has taken a bit of a hit and I think you very well might be under water. Do you stick with your convictions as you did with CRWD?

Just trying to learn here bud, from someone a lot less patient than you.

Best!!

**homie1975** · 06-03-24, 09:11 PM

Originally posted by Madison

Homie ... You are a well documented buy and holder. Over the years you have also expressed your dislike for buying ATH's. A month or so ago you bought SMCI at or near ATH's which caught my attention (surprised me). I'm curious of your thoughts since the stock has taken a bit of a hit and I think you very well might be under water. Do you stick with your convictions as you did with CRWD?

Just trying to learn here bud, from someone a lot less patient than you.

Best!!

i've owned SMCI since 2023! i may have bought more recently but it certainly was not my opening position !!

nowadays i sell laggards. MCD, BA, UNH, TWLO, WDAY, etc etc.

i sold them because they were not moving fast enough for me, to the upside.

i put the money in stocks at or near ATH's,.

i learned from Roy Bacon: stocks at all time highs tend to beget more ATH's.

live and learn !!!

**Madison** · 06-04-24, 07:31 AM

Originally posted by homie1975

i've owned SMCI since 2023! i may have bought more recently but it certainly was not my opening position !!

nowadays i sell laggards. MCD, BA, UNH, TWLO, WDAY, etc etc.

i sold them because they were not moving fast enough for me, to the upside.

i put the money in stocks at or near ATH's,.

i learned from Roy Bacon: stocks at all time highs tend to beget more ATH's.

live and learn !!!

An area I certainly could be more adept at and would love to learn more "Momentum Investing".

The market is a curious thing, but one thing you can be sure momentum in either direction is a powerful thing.

BOL Bud.