Stock Market Discussion -- started 03/06/2018 -- updated daily !!!

[homie1975]

Epic thread. I am going to dig into this during the weekend. Who knows if SBR is staying afloat much longer, but this seems like it's going to keep me entertained for at least a week, maybe more

nearly 6.5 years since we started this thread in March 2018.

there are many nuggets of knowledge in here from some amazing posters over the years.

[Madison]

Two of the more astute investors around in the last 50 years.

Lynch (Peter) told Rose that the stock market’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio had fluctuated from 10 to 20 since the end of WWII. And if the valuation was closer to the upper end of that range, it was overvalued and investors should be cautious.
Recent data backs his theory. Economist Robert Shiller shared data in his book Irrational Exuberance that indicates that the S&P 500’s historic average P/E multiple is 16.07. As of July, the multiple sits at 27.45 — far higher than historic average and the upper-end of Lynch’s preferred range.
In other words, the market is overvalued right now. In these conditions, Lynch believes a correction is “healthy” and investors should avoid frothy, overpriced stocks. This is because he says overvalued stocks offer a poor risk-reward ratio.

[CanuckG]

CHDN continues to print for me

I keep loading up XEQT every paycheck as well

[Slurry Pumper]

So we lose 818K jobs with a revision which confirms my thoughts that all of the jobs reports have been bullseye. Then the fed meeting minutes come out with a yeah we're going to lower rates in September and the markets are unfazed by both little tidbits. It makes it hard to say we aren't headed to hit a wall. I'm fully engaged in the gold and gold mining. With all of the things going on its just a mis calculation away from triggering a giant spike and conditions are ripe here.

[guitarjosh]

So we lose 818K jobs with a revision which confirms my thoughts that all of the jobs reports have been bullseye. Then the fed meeting minutes come out with a yeah we're going to lower rates in September and the markets are unfazed by both little tidbits. It makes it hard to say we aren't headed to hit a wall. I'm fully engaged in the gold and gold mining. With all of the things going on its just a mis calculation away from triggering a giant spike and conditions are ripe here.

NVDA's earnings will be huge next week. If it causes the market to hit new all time highs, I think we top out in September - October.

[Slurry Pumper]

Yeah NVDA has to come out with some rip you a new one earnings, and we will be on a bull run here. I'm not sure it gets past the all time highs, but between that and the looming rate cut this may be it. I caution everyone to look at what happens when the Fed lowers rates. History is setting up again.

[Slurry Pumper]

Buying calls this morning that expire on Friday as a play for later today when NVDA reports. The markets have been hanging out right at resistance for the last couple of weeks, and I smell a gap over situation.

[Madison]

Homie, you know I'm always interested in learning from your Buy and Hold thoughts. I've watched your interest in SMCI carefully. Would you please kindly refresh my memory as to where you bought and how you are thinking. I'm asking without animosity, only because I've been looking for an entry point.

[d2bets]

I'm nervous. I think NVDA drops 6-8% on this one. Hope I'm way off base.

[Madison]

I'm nervous. I think NVDA drops 6-8% on this one. Hope I'm way off base.

Stocks (Throw a dart) on the least misgiving drop 25%. DG today. This is not indicative of a balanced valuation market.

[Slurry Pumper]

If you told me yesterday that NVDA will blow out the numbers but still have a sharp sell off while the SPY goes bullish by a percent, I would say nope, but it is the situation. So I'm on the right side of the move, but for the wrong reason.

[d2bets]

Stocks (Throw a dart) on the least misgiving drop 25%. DG today. This is not indicative of a balanced valuation market.

I was right on this one. Market wanted pie in the sky from NVDA. But I think it'll start climbing again soon. Buying oppo.

[Madison]

I was right on this one. Market wanted pie in the sky from NVDA. But I think it'll start climbing again soon. Buying oppo.

You got me bud. Too many things pointing down. I'm with Buffett 90% cash until they force me otherwise with lower rates. How much is he making @ 5% on 230 Billion in cash. LOL

[Madison]

Berkshire/Buffett

You know, I already felt small and inconsequential but the following never stops making my jaw drop.

I started getting concerned about the overall market valuation andspeculative excesses in the May 2017 issue of Extreme Value. BerkshireHathaway finished that year with $328.9 billion in cash, T-bills, and liquidsecurities.
Its latest filings show a balance of $573.2 billion of cash,T-bills, other bonds, and stocks.
According to data compiled by Bloomberg, Buffett has reduced hislargest equity position – in Apple (AAPL) – from more than a billion shares in2018 to about 400 million shares today. That's a 60% reduction in the biggestequity investment he's ever made.

[guitarjosh]

The VIX spiked in a way that usually shows a short-term bottom.

The bad news is we're probably in the early stages of a recession. We're getting numbers we almost always get or only get during a recession.

[astrobloke]

yield curve about to re-invert

jobs, and bad numbers coming.

Fed PIVOT now, recipe for disaster. see ( 2001 , and GFC 2008 )

I think the stockmarket will shit the bed pan soon, along with NVDA and what not.

It's just a matter of time now.... Buffett dumped more stocks, like he did back in 2000 and 2007.

It's all adding up. They love this, and will use WW3 nuke scare to make it all come tumbling down.

[astrobloke]

IF teh markets go crazy soon so too will NVDA shit the bedpan. It might be put option time?

wadda you say boys ?

[Slurry Pumper]

Pretty nasty day yesterday as the markets start to roll over in my opinion. Things just don't just go straight up or down, so where do I think we have important levels of at least intraday support/resistance? Also that VIX thing is for real from guitarjosh. The way I like to playthings is if I want to buy PUTS, I pick a spot where I think there is resistance to any dead cat or rebound areas. Then when price rises up to that spot, I buy the puts. You can also get levels of support that break, but in my experience, that is a less rewarding play. Please don't blindly buy puts in the hole as they say, if you missed the elevator ride down, you missed it. Just wait for another one to come your way and keeps your eyes open for other opportunities.

SPY levels of Resistance / Support: $565.16, $555, $560.30, $552, $549, $544.50, $540.70(rising trend line), any lower this week and I will add to the list.
QQQ levels of Resistance / Support: $491.10, $488.60, $485, $473.40, $468, $463.50, $461, $455.70, $451.50, $445.50, $440.32 (200 DMA), $33.70 (Descending trend line).
IWM levels of Resistance / Support: $221.60, $220.50, $218, $216.25, $215, $213, $212 (50 DMA), $211.20, $208.50, $206.60 (100 DMA), $201.70 (200 DMA), $198.

I think you'll find that inflection points of market movement will be around these numbers that I put down on the list, and as the price approaches one of these numbers, there will be at least a intraday pause or bounce from these numbers, or a resistance level depending on which direction the market is moving at the time. Sometimes, markets come up short of the price, while other times the ywill spike it through on the short term, then every once in a while they hit the exact number.

All in all, these are the numbers I look for and plan around to buy or sell on a daily basis.

[Madison]

The VIX spiked in a way that usually shows a short-term bottom.

The bad news is we're probably in the early stages of a recession. We're getting numbers we almost always get or only get during a recession.

Yes sir!

[Madison]

IF teh markets go crazy soon so too will NVDA shit the bedpan. It might be put option time?

wadda you say boys ?

I've been toying with SQQQ for a while unsuccessfully. Pretty much agree. A lot (and there are many) of the underpinnings have SHT the proverbial bed but the major averages are somehow supportive. Look at a stock like UNH which I begged people to buy at $480, COST, etc. Very interesting times.

Haven't heard back from our leader regarding the SMCI's of the world, once 1K now teetering on $400. I posted earlier, when reasonably stable stocks like DG fall 20-25% in a single day the caution flags should be raised.

I wish someone smarter than me would help us all understand how much of this phoney market is buoyed by the weekly/monthly of millions being invested by the employed and their employers via 401K's???

[homie1975]

Hodl

[Slurry Pumper]

Yesterday was what I call an almost day. To start with the SPY gaps down at the opening bell, but it doesn't get to my $549 target for buying calls. Then sure as ship the momentum changes and price runs up to $554.43 which isn't close enough to my $555 target for buying Puts. Again a change in direction with a slow grind down to $552 where a quick scalp of calls gave a buck of upward movement before continuing down to challenge the low of the day at $549.46. Not close enough to $549 again, but I bought Calls anyway in anticipation of a VIX predicted rally today.

[Slurry Pumper]

Well the VIX rally bet fizzled out yesterday pretty quick as it made it to $552, but had a hard time moving any further ($553.73) before the SPY tumbled to below a very stout support line of $549. I bought Puts before the end of the day when the price settled just above the $549 level. Job numbers come out this morning and everyone knows they are fake as hell. Good or bad it smells like a catalyst for another down leg here.

[homie1975]

time to hold thy nose, turn away, and hit the "buy" button.

[Madison]

time to hold thy nose, turn away, and hit the "buy" button.

Sure hope you're right my friend. Wondering what the tenuous market will do if they do drop 50bps? May not be taken well, however the 10yr and other bonds/treasuries are leading the FED's way. Curious times.

[Slurry Pumper]

SPY levels of Resistance / Support: $565.16, $555, $560.30, $552, $549, $544.50, $540.70(rising trend line), any lower this week and I will add to the list.
QQQ levels of Resistance / Support: $491.10, $488.60, $485, $473.40, $468, $463.50, $461, $455.70, $451.50, $445.50, $440.32 (200 DMA), $33.70 (Descending trend line).
IWM levels of Resistance / Support: $221.60, $220.50, $218, $216.25, $215, $213, $212 (50 DMA), $211.20, $208.50, $206.60 (100 DMA), $201.70 (200 DMA), $198.

These numbers are good this week as the markets go back up.

[johnnyvegas13]

When is the crash coming???

[Slurry Pumper]

Who knows I would have guessed it should of happened already.

[Madison]

Who knows I would have guessed it should of happened already.

Agreed.

[Madison]

When is the crash coming???

My gut feeling and 50yrs investing tells me if and when it does come it will be painful.

Watch the unemployment rate (Which is artifically inflated anyway) and consumers being 70% of GDP. if any of these fools we have ever get around to addressing the deficit will be refreshing.

34 trillion in debt. All the damage from all the hurricanes since 1980 equals 1 trillion. That and other stats gives one perspective to how much 1 trillion truly is. God help our future generations.

[johnnyvegas13]

I swore off stocks and crypto unless a crash or something to really stir up the markets

[Slurry Pumper]

SPY levels of Resistance / Support: $565.16, $555, $560.30, $552, $549, $544.50, $540.70(rising trend line), any lower this week and I will add to the list..

If you were painting by the numbers yesterday, you should have made a killing. Take a look at yesterday's chart action from a 10 minute time frame. The SPY starts out at $548.70 which is really close to $549, a number that has been on the board for a while now. Buying PUTS because the market was falling apart then by 10:40 the price fell to $539.96. Another spot on the board ($540). It's a previously listed number of Support, and price got there via the falling knife principal and a spot where the most recent low was. This was a perfect sell them PUTS and buy them CALLS. Then the rest of the day it went back up. Back past $549, where I sold 75 % of my calls, and to continue to where? Another previously noted spot on the board.around $555.
Play by the numbers and you can turn a huge profit.

[Madison]

If you were painting by the numbers yesterday, you should have made a killing. Take a look at yesterday's chart action from a 10 minute time frame. The SPY starts out at $548.70 which is really close to $549, a number that has been on the board for a while now. Buying PUTS because the market was falling apart then by 10:40 the price fell to $539.96. Another spot on the board ($540). It's a previously listed number of Support, and price got there via the falling knife principal and a spot where the most recent low was. This was a perfect sell them PUTS and buy them CALLS. Then the rest of the day it went back up. Back past $549, where I sold 75 % of my calls, and to continue to where? Another previously noted spot on the board.around $555.
Play by the numbers and you can turn a huge profit.

Oh, if I was 30 years younger.

[d2bets]

Market back in melt-up mode. S&P 6k coming sooner than you'd think.

[Slurry Pumper]

OK this week with the Fed coming out to give a rate cut as promised, I got to believe that we have an all time high coming in the SPY. I'm looking for an opportunity to pick up calls this morning that expire Friday. If we are lucky, there will be a pull back today to hopefully $555, but that is probably wishful thinking in an effort to load em up for the train ride to the all time high. The sooner the all time high is eclipse this week the better, if it actually takes the FED rate cut announcement to get us there, then the upward movement will be muted.