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If you really want to be political about the whole thing....The Fed taper should have started in Fall of 2020 when it was very apparent an everything bubble was forming , but, there was no way Trump would allow the market to go down bc politically it would have been disastrous, even though he was doomed anyway...
You think Trump, with his Wharton’s degree didn’t understand this..that the only result of relentless QE under his watch would be inflation and eventual recession...people are so blinded by identity politics staring them in the face you end up in bed with a tranny...
you should be thankful the air is coming out of this thing now or it was going to be really bad America and likely the global economy. Do I think there’s a high probability Fed diks this up and sends us into a deflationary recesssion, yup, I’d say odds are high.Comment -
So we had our short term pivot now what?
The FED comes out on Wednesday after the meeting and will give the carefully worded statement and answer questions. Its going to be a big market mover either way so I put my tin foil hat on, watched a little bit of Scandinavian outdoor winter porn with those hot blonde chicks, you really only need about 10 minutes, then dialed into the future fed minutes to give you da shyt.
The FED has seen what has happened over the last 3 weeks when he wasn't even doing anything yet so he is going to try and give the market a soft landing and not a total crash and burn scenario. He will come out a little more dovish than the consensus which is something I don't even know or care what that is, I just know it is going to be more dovish. Until then the market chops around and probably drifts up a little bit. Then the IWM will probably move into the resistance zone.
So the trade I'm willing to hit sets up like this: Buy IWM PUTS (33%) at $208 strike with about 4 weeks to close, and (66%) at $212 strike with the same 4 week close. So long as the IWM price doesn't creep up to the price. If it goes up and hangs out just under the price target, that is a clue that the price is gaining momentum to move higher and the trade is off the table.
This is a slightly more than a year for the IWM chart with daily candles. Look at that $208 level, that spot has been resistance and support for quite a while now. Just above it there is another level of support / resistance at $212. This is an obvious spot that if reached I will be buying some PUTS. If it happens this week, I'll get the March 31 termination date.
So I'll keep track of this trade which should last about a week to 3 weeks or so before I get rid of it and I'm also touting it to you just like one of those handicappers before the game. Except this time its coming from a clown pushing a shopping cart who designs slurry pumps in his spare time while he waits for trade setups to come to him. Lets look at the current price of the targeted PUTS even though depending on the price and time frame things could change. IF you don't like PUT options, try the TZA. It doesn't pay as well but it also doesn't have a time limit either.
So right now 1 contract will run you $1340. By the time I buy it, the price will be around $1000 or so for 1 contract. Today's low is $191.23 and I would hazard a guess that this play would probably end up as a lower low which will mean about a $16 swing. I would buy more at $212, and jump out at around $215. So the numbers add up like this: I risk $700 at the first buy per contract, and $300 at the second buy per 2 more contracts given my weighted step in scenario for a total of contracts at risk to be $1300, to make $1700 and $2000 *2 to get at the most recent low from today. So $1300 to make $5700 or more.
I'll give updates as it goes on like when I buy and when I sell and how much is made or lost.Comment -
Great insight guys. Slurry broke it down well... nice deep dive for us chart guys. Good job. I love days like this. I make my money in spurts and if your patient enough, which is a must if you do this for a living, it can pay huge dividends. You got to take advantage of days like this-- and..
Trobin nailed it. Not much more to add just agree 100%. Presidents don't control equities and Trump knew exactly what he was doing... like you said. Right now it's all about the Fed. Wednesday will be very interesting.
Didn't realize it was so late. Going to sleep through all the choppiness we will probably have the first hour or two. I never put on trades until at least noon. Lots of $$ can be made that first hour but been there and done that and found myself treading water. I like to wait until it settles down at least somewhat but that's just me.
Oh yeah Tesla's going to move big on earnings when it comes out in a few days. I haven't looked at the option chain yet but I'm sure you can go down a good bit and sell a couple put contracts on it. Make sure you protect yourself and buy the lower strike (credit spread). Unless you really feel strongly it will go up then take your chance and sell some at the money puts or better yet buy some atm calls on it. That way if your wrong, your only out what you spent on it and don't have to take a huge loss if it does disappoint.Comment -
Waking up to a little profit taking from yesterday. Remember yesterday was a $19 move on the SPY from bottom to top so it is understandable that the market is giving back some of the gains from the bottom yesterday. As long as the SPY can stay above yesterdays opening around $431.50ish, I think the chop shop is in tact and we will be waiting for the FED to walk up to the mike tomorrow.
So for the bulls today they would like to see the SPY rise and close above the 200 DMA which is close by ($442) and a reasonable goal for today. First they will have to withstand the early morning selling and so far I don't expect a giant mover like yesterday but a more muted move either way so even though we are down to $433 in the premarket on the SPY (-$7), I suspect that will the morning low won't be much lower. Of course I do reserve the right to change my opinion once the market opens, but that's how I see it to begin the day. My IWM trade is still valid and I will wait to see if it comes into play sometime this week or not.
Day trades for the day, I'll be looking at XLF to bounce off of the 200 DMA ($38.04) this morning, but that is just a look at and see how it goes right off the open type of trade.Comment -
SPX down 2.3%.Longs who didn't sell at yesterdays close got greedy. Pigs get slaughtered. Enjoy that 4.5% intraday rally. Odds slim you see those back to back. Next one won't be until a much lower level. Funny part Jim Cramer is still pumping. It's like the China virus cowardly sheep with there masks and monthly jabs. Refuse to admit they're wrong. What a great time to be a trader or short.Comment -
OK like the XLF TRADE on calls that expire friday when XLF gets to $37.13 here in the next 10 to 20 minutes. I'm out if it drops below $36.80 on 10 minute candle closes. Looking for a ride back up to the $38ish level.Comment -
Left with a no play it took off without me a little early. Now if it comes back that trade is not going to be the same no seconds here.
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Dark pool money stepped in finally, starting to see the bids brought down early and then closing higher so that’s a good sign too...I am still seeing another 3-4 weeks before the critical bottom markers get hit, they could flash sooner on a larger flush though.Comment -
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Closed a few puts I sold on earnings (IBM,AXP etc etc). Better to free up money to open new positions.
Moved on to just two- MSFT and TXN. On MSFT I was able to go down $45 to the 245 put strike and still bring in 1.06 per contract. Wish I would of went closer, but hindsight is 20/20. Both up so no worries there. Haven't checked who's coming out tomorrow it might be TSLA but I'll pass on that one I don't want risk it... could pull a NFLX ya never know. There will be plenty of others.Last edited by chase1; 01-26-22, 01:52 AM.Comment -
They are front running the FED coming out today and the early morning has us seeing 350 up on the DOW and 60 on the S&P.
Today is not going to be amateur day. I would suggest that you let it be and come back tomorrow after the FED announcement and Telsa earnings and Microsoft earnings. Then decide how you would like to play it.
I'm not taking any day or swing trades today, and getting rid of a few that I have going like QLD. Of course I still have all my gold and gold miners that I will always have until they make a run, but other than that. It is a day of rest for me. This could end up or down 700 points today and unless you were the call girl that went to Powell's hotel room last night, you probably don't really know how he is going to play it and this time the words will be parsed like no other time. Take the day off I say.Comment -
Congrats to any that took TSLA into the earnings. They were selling the 935 put and call strikes at the money for around $45 so they were implying about a $90 move in the stock. It's barely moved in after hours. Surely will see it be volatile tomorrow but wouldn't expect it to move $90 either way. Missed it but wasn't going to mess with it anyway.
Laid pretty low today. Kept on MSFT after the earnings beat last night. Could have sold out for .06 and pocketed 1.01 but didn't see much worth the risk today so just letting it sit. I did sell a few contracts on URI at the 280-strike bringing in 1.85. It had an upside surprise so that's good news.
Apple reports after the bell tomorrow along with a stock I already own V I S A. More than likely, I will be selling some AAPL puts but don't know how far down. Hopefully it will be down tomorrow, and I feel better going even lower. If it slices through where I sell it, I'll gladly take on this stock and add it to the portfolio. Need to sell some covered calls on V as well. Hope that one gets a bump and can get it called away from me.Comment -
So I'm back today after taking the day off yesterday and after listening to Powell speak I'm convinced that the Country from top to bottom is and are being run by morons. This isn't going to be a good couple of years coming up. Over night the markets tanked only to come back in the recent early hours as the European markets open.
After hearing what Powell said yesterday, I think we have a maybe 1 to 2 week bull run starting here once people figure out that FED balance sheet isn't going anywhere but up in the near future, and rates aren't being raised until March.
I have no idea why the Gold markets took a big plunge here, all the news is gold bullish with the inflation battle not beginning waged, and our trade deficit topping 1 trillion for the month of December. Eventually the world will not want our inflated dollars and they will dump them when the U.S markets tank, and real estate assets crash down again later this year. With inflation at 7% in the official number and probably more like 15% in real life, the 1/4% rate hike is like pissing in a lake and expecting the dam to break. Even 1/2% rate hikes are nothing. Eventually things will get figured out.
So I keep on accumulating gold and gold mining stocks on their dips at an alarming rate.
I can tell you from a business side of the slurry pumping world, the mining industry everywhere and oil in places other than the U.S. as a whole have been investing across the board and I am one very busy slurry pumping fool here. I specialize in crazy shit or on the fringe of reality pumping solutions that are usually geared toward the harder to reach stuff that needs to be extracted around the world, and I can tell these industries are starting to go after the hard to reach stuff because they see the commodities as a whole starting to take off.
This ironically may explain why the gold miners haven't caught a bid just yet. Your supposed to get into the mining company when they start to produce and not when they are investing the cash as a rule, but even at $1800 gold the PE ratios are in the range that the market watchers will be looking for in the near future. Gone are the days when a PE ratio of 342.6 (TSLA) is favored to a ratio of 8.8 (AU).Comment -
Slurry pumping fool lol, I need this guy in my lifeComment -
I’ve been dollar cost averaging longs these past few weeks. I opened up a swing in LMT last time I mentioned the coming conflict. Looking for signs of exhaustion on higher time frames ie TD9/13 on weekly/monthly before redeploying cash in retirement account....still net short on bonds through TBT and tech through TECS
May hear a little less from me for time being, newly single and one of my New Years resolutions is to work on my body count lol...it’s a little time consuming juggling but just gonna live my best life until I eventually get booed up again...they are rather thirsty now coming out of Covid so striking while the iron is hotComment -
Trobs is out marking territory. Don't take any advice from me I've been married 3 times for many years. Some of them good but mostly not. I just outright go and rent talent and feel good about the long term cost of it.
Also been catching some shit with people thinking that I'm taking a shot on the Dems. I'm not the morons who have been running the country have been doing this for 25 years or more. A systematic spiral down the drain and I'm afraid that I'm not going to die before it all falls apart and goes to shit. The financial issues the U.S. has racked up over the years is coming back to bite us all in the ass. I think it will happen real soon as well across the board there will be no hiding.Comment -
This is a weekly chart, so longer term view...50 is trying to hold with fingernails, maybe a bounce from here to put a right shoulder.....One of many scenarios!.....or things are really bad, going straight down....100? is way down there!....Comment -
Wow TSLA ended up down over 100. Being down just a little yesterday in afterhours was a fake out as it continued to bleed all day long. My bad for the early congrats if you own it or sold puts. I should have known better and waited to see how it reacted during trading hours
Awaiting Apple coming out here soon and V. Need V a little more since I already own it. Waited until the end of day to sell some puts about 10 below the price on both. I'll double up my shares on V if it goes down over 10 and take on APPL as a new position. Got cov calls on V around 217.50 so maybe it will go up enough and be sold.Comment -
Good god Robinhood below $10 now. More bad earnings. Knew this was a shit stock. Kicking myself for not shorting it when it roared up to 70 a week after its IPO.Comment -
V I S A (V) getting a nice bounce of 10+. Be great if it can close over 217.50 tomorrow and take the decision out of my hands and get called away. If not, unsure if I want to continue to hold it or close out the cov call and sell it. Don't want to be greedy so will probably get out.
Apple beat all across the board and up nicely. Sold puts will cash and will probably bump the NASDAQ tomorrow but who the hell knows where it closes at the end of the day.Comment -
Well this is either a pretty good shake out operation or the markets are on the verge of another big leg down. Some of the leading indicator indices like the DJT and SMH closed below the low from Monday. That's not good. The IWM close basically right at the low from Monday, SPY and QQQs making a bear flag. Only the XLF is in decent shape above the 200 DMA and even that spiked through the 50 DMA and got rejected.
This week we had a fake spike candle in the SPY 10 minute chart where the spike went down to around 370. Usually my tin foil hat comes into play and I start thinking that is a sign of shit to come. I thought the market would digest the FED and have a few days of bullishness, but that is looking like that ain't happening here. It still could but the signs are mounting for another nose dive here.
We'll see if the Apple reporting can save the market overnight and into tomorrow. Apple is a large part of several index funds so it may just happen, and I think we get some inflation data tomorrow as well. This could be another Tesla situation where the stock gets a immediate pop and a dump the next day.
Gotta be nimble tomorrow after the open and read those tea leaves, things are setting up for big moves.Comment -
Sell them. You can always buy them back. The trend says lower. I trade the S&P 500. I took that bounce on Fri. and got out. If this shit drops it's gonna drop. Hold onto your pants seat. Stay neutral and wait.Comment -
Lets take a look at what has been going on in the SPY since the beginning of the year. First we'll look at the SPY 3 Month chart with daily candle sticks.
So a couple of weeks ago the SPY tanked starting on the Tuesday after the Martin Luther King day holiday, came down and hung onto the 100 DMA (Cyan Line), then on Wed - Fri, it continued to dump cruising right past a couple levels for support, and the 200 DMA (White Line) to come to rest on some other support before the weekend at $437.75. I thought we would get a bounce and on Monday after really shaking out the people who where starting to short in the hole, the market turns around and rip you a new one to close positive on the day on some pretty good volume. Then on Tuesday it was a day of rest or chop as they say before running up Pre-Fed song and dance to $443.75. After the Fed it fell away but didn't break down below the Monday low, then it chopped around a little more before the bulls got their shit together on Friday to run up and close just below the 200 DMA.
If you look at the chart for the last couple of weeks, you can't help but notice the bear flag pattern, it has going on.
If you look at the weekly chart Lineman put up you can see the head and shoulders pattern being created on the weekly chart. This would suggest that it is ready for a leg up. Last week I touted the SPY moving back up but it really has been floundering and in reality we can't say that we have a good read on what is going to happen.
So it is time to play ref here. This week, if the bulls are running the first number is to get above the 200 DMA which is right there at $442.50ish, then the high from last Wednesday when the FED came out at $444, and the next level of resistance $445.75. If they can't close a day above those numbers then the bull case is not strong.
Down south its still last Monday's low of $420.75 that will be the line before the bottom falls out again. In between is a chop shop deal and likely a shake out operation curtesy of the Trick Trap Fool and Fuk you crew that always make the market look like it is going to do one thing before it turns around and does the opposite. This is a 25 dollar range which is pretty large so it may be a day trading market until 1 of the 2 extremes are surpassed and closed beyond for the day sometime this week. Which way will it break? Who the hell knows, you have to be the Ref and use the numbers to determine which way things are going.Last edited by Slurry Pumper; 01-30-22, 09:19 PM.Comment -
I've had James Rickards "The Death of Money" circa 2014 on my bookshelf. I started it years ago and given that he can get off into some self-serving and arcane stuff I set it aside. I just revisited it the last 5 days. Some pretty enlightening data, such as predicting the end of society given a 3 trillion dollar budget. All in all a good look at the financial markets in the rear view mirror, and what might be forthcoming given that it was written circa 2014.Comment -
do we believe this move up today?
personally, i am skeptical.Comment -
I thought we were overdue for a rally back up. Its a sell the rip until further notice. Today has been a steady march up with a little pause every now and again to gain energy for he next level. The closer they get to $450, the more attractive that number becomes and then we are in what I consider a topping range $450-$454ish. That level would pretty much be consistent with the hangman (hangman, where I get that shit, I mean head and shoulders) pattern Lineman put out there and it may be enough of a move to sell into at that point if reached early tomorrow. That would make tomorrow a Turn around Tuesday type of tape.
The QQQs are on a little rocket ride today, SMH flying as well. Interestingly however the what i consider the best leading index indicator IWM is unable to get above the high from last Wednesday before the Fed showed up. The transports which is another real good indicator is also having trouble even getting close to that very same high from last week.
I see this as short lived and sell the rip is in tact. If you are long, take the profits and get ready for the slide which will be coming in the future unless SPY can get above $454 while the IWM and transport start to participate.Comment -
could have been Shorts covering last Fri which has spilled into today.Comment -
It's so obvious what happened.
Big money shorted everything in January.... Now (last day of the month) they go long and everything is greenComment
