Stock Market Discussion -- started 03/06/2018 -- updated daily !!!

[trobin31]

Maybe consider selling covered calls during 2022, but try not to get called until you're ready.

You can get a little cash back for holding it and I think there should be some decent effort to reach around 154 or so. I think.

Something to think about.

Merry Christmas and Happy New Year Homie!!

I sell out of money covered calls each month, basically free money

[homie1975]

Maybe consider selling covered calls during 2022, but try not to get called until you're ready.

You can get a little cash back for holding it and I think there should be some decent effort to reach around 154 or so. I think.

Something to think about.

Merry Christmas and Happy New Year Homie!!

KVer My Dude!!

where have you been ?!?!

[Madison]

If I had a 401K, I think I would be in cash for the 1st 6 months.

BABA day trading update so far:

Well it didn't get to $115.75, but I must be pretty desperate for action today as I front ran it at $116.35 right after I mentioned my price because I saw it stop going down. Now it is like Mrs. Sapphire at the local strip club, a slow grind up. Its right at a spot now that can be resistance.

Slurry, I've been trimming since May/June and more aggressively Nov/Dec. I'm totally "Preservation of Capital". Closing in on 68 years old.

A lot of what I've been reading says I should have at least 10% GOLD. Most said to avoid GLD. I looked at the miner's but all are mostly flat and gold still circa 1800. I know you are a Gold bull, what would you suggest for me to start a position?

[KVB]

I sell out of money covered calls each month, basically free money

[KVB]

KVer My Dude!!

where have you been ?!?!

Took a little break through the holidays, starting around Turkey Day.

I plan to contribute to this thread daily in 2022, we're going to have ourselves a little market to navigate and I like what I see in here, you guys, all of you, are doing a great job with your input.

Hopefully I can contribute again as well.

[Slurry Pumper]

Slurry, I've been trimming since May/June and more aggressively Nov/Dec. I'm totally "Preservation of Capital". Closing in on 68 years old.

A lot of what I've been reading says I should have at least 10% GOLD. Most said to avoid GLD. I looked at the miner's but all are mostly flat and gold still circa 1800. I know you are a Gold bull, what would you suggest for me to start a position?

Yeah the gold play didn't work this year and its down like 10% but since I'm a holder of GLD for the longer term or forever, I don't feel bad about it. Basically I have a shyt load of GLD and to a lesser extent SLV and I use that to collateralize my day and swing trades with a fair amount of cash but really not that much, just enough so that I can get at it real quick and live for like a few months if I had to.
I keep buying the gold miners little by little every month using the day trade/ swing trade profits so I guess I'm cost averaging down because I know that mining is a tough bidness but it is cyclical on a long term basis, like 5 to 10 years. I stick to the big miners and stay away from the juniors, and I also like miners of all things for the green stuff and gold of course; so like copper, silver, the nuke metals (uranium) and other rare unobtainium types to round out the mining portfolio. Miners are a weird thing, they take lots of capital and go for years with nothing to show for it. Then just when they start to get some results, they are usually bought up by the larger mining companies so for seemingly no reason the large miners can catch a bid when they buy the right start up mine and likewise they can get hit when they F up. The downside basically just happened to AU because they had a series of accidents and a lack of a CEO that the market smacked them with to the point where they do look attractive on a earnings per share basis if you like fundamentals.

I still think we will have a correction sometime in the next quarter or before April. When this happens, gold and miners will probably get hit just like everything else but to a lesser extent. Afterwards, I think they will take off and out perform the market since inflation will still be a thing and maybe everyone will figure out that the FED can't fight it.

At 68 I think you can withdraw 401K stuff without penalty other than the tax. The dollar will eventually go down as it has to over the years so I buy 20 ounces of gold every year for the kids and now grand kids. I got 3 kids at 26, 21, and 17 with the grand kid basically being a new born this year. So I buy 4 (5) ounce chunks of gold for them to get once I kick the bucket. I've been doing this now for 5 years running so the incentive is starting to really build for the kids to give me the dirt nap hammer up side the head and even though I do things with my body that are not that healthy such as drinking and a modest amount of drug use, I seem to be in great shape for a mid 50s year old.
I mention the physical gold buying because I just feel better having it around and since I buy every year dips in the market haven't been that much of a issue. I like to have it stashed around the yard in secret places so it would be like a treasure hunt to get at it but it is also off the government radar.

My collecting the gold mining ETF GDX and a few larger miners such as AU and NEM will eventually pay off probably in the next 5 years or so or at least I hope so.

[Madison]

Yeah the gold play didn't work this year and its down like 10% but since I'm a holder of GLD for the longer term or forever, I don't feel bad about it. Basically I have a shyt load of GLD and to a lesser extent SLV and I use that to collateralize my day and swing trades with a fair amount of cash but really not that much, just enough so that I can get at it real quick and live for like a few months if I had to.
I keep buying the gold miners little by little every month using the day trade/ swing trade profits so I guess I'm cost averaging down because I know that mining is a tough bidness but it is cyclical on a long term basis, like 5 to 10 years. I stick to the big miners and stay away from the juniors, and I also like miners of all things for the green stuff and gold of course; so like copper, silver, the nuke metals (uranium) and other rare unobtainium types to round out the mining portfolio. Miners are a weird thing, they take lots of capital and go for years with nothing to show for it. Then just when they start to get some results, they are usually bought up by the larger mining companies so for seemingly no reason the large miners can catch a bid when they buy the right start up mine and likewise they can get hit when they F up. The downside basically just happened to AU because they had a series of accidents and a lack of a CEO that the market smacked them with to the point where they do look attractive on a earnings per share basis if you like fundamentals.

I still think we will have a correction sometime in the next quarter or before April. When this happens, gold and miners will probably get hit just like everything else but to a lesser extent. Afterwards, I think they will take off and out perform the market since inflation will still be a thing and maybe everyone will figure out that the FED can't fight it.

At 68 I think you can withdraw 401K stuff without penalty other than the tax. The dollar will eventually go down as it has to over the years so I buy 20 ounces of gold every year for the kids and now grand kids. I got 3 kids at 26, 21, and 17 with the grand kid basically being a new born this year. So I buy 4 (5) ounce chunks of gold for them to get once I kick the bucket. I've been doing this now for 5 years running so the incentive is starting to really build for the kids to give me the dirt nap hammer up side the head and even though I do things with my body that are not that healthy such as drinking and a modest amount of drug use, I seem to be in great shape for a mid 50s year old.
I mention the physical gold buying because I just feel better having it around and since I buy every year dips in the market haven't been that much of a issue. I like to have it stashed around the yard in secret places so it would be like a treasure hunt to get at it but it is also off the government radar.

My collecting the gold mining ETF GDX and a few larger miners such as AU and NEM will eventually pay off probably in the next 5 years or so or at least I hope so.

Looking at "Hard Assets Alliance" to hold my physical gold.

The miner's I looked at were KL, EQX, GOLD, NEM, AGI, and RGLD.

You may want to check out Treasury Direct IBonds. I bought 20K this year at 7.12% for 30 years, and intend to buy another 20K in Jan 2022. Guaranteed 7.12% for 30 years seems like a no brainer, especially for the grandkids. You have to hold for 1 year and 5 years before penalty. Penalty is small 3 months interest if you take early.

My understanding is you can only do 10K per year per individual. Compound interest if you hold to duration is circa 8/1. Again, to my understanding it is an inflationary protected Bond so rates fluctuate y/y. After 5 years you are penalty free. I'm working on setting up some for my grandchildren as we speak.

[Madison]

Oh, and many thanks for your input/insight.

[homie1975]

Took a little break through the holidays, starting around Turkey Day.

I plan to contribute to this thread daily in 2022, we're going to have ourselves a little market to navigate and I like what I see in here, you guys, all of you, are doing a great job with your input.

Hopefully I can contribute again as well.

[homie1975]

For Any Lurkers we might have who are new to all of this and are considering Long Term investing as a strategy instead of just trading in and out of positions, consider setting up DRIP (Dividend Reinvestment Plan) for all of your positions which currently have dividends and even those that do not, as they might have one in the future:

THE BENEFITS OF DRIP PLANS AND DRIP STOCKS

DRIPs Benefit 1: Increase your position with no fees
Most brokers will reinvest your dividends for you for free, and the purchases will be completed without fees (although you will owe income taxes on the dividend amount). Alternatively, you can often sign up for a Dividend Reinvestment Plan, or DRIP, directly with the dividend-paying company.
DRIPs Benefit 2: Automatically invest, without having to think about it
Company-operated DRIP plans allow investors to buy shares directly from the company, and in exchange, dividends are automatically reinvested in the company’s stock, sometimes at below-market prices.
Those are the two most obvious benefits of dividend reinvesting: You can increase your position for free, without fees, and it’s automatic, so you don’t have to think about it. If a stock is high quality and you plan to own it for a long time, dividend reinvestment is a great passive way to increase your exposure over time. Sure, you could collect the dividends and then manually invest them in something else, but a good habit that takes no effort is easier to keep up than one that takes a little effort.
DRIPs Benefit 3: The power of compounding adds up fast
However, the third big reason to reinvest dividends, and the less obvious one, is actually the most powerful. It’s the power of compounding, the same action that makes compound interest so powerful.
When you reinvest dividends, you increase the size of your investment, thus also increasing the dividends you’ll receive next time. So each reinvestment will be slightly larger than the last (assuming dividend payments don’t decrease). Just as with compound interest, you’ll be surprised how quickly those little additions can add up!
For example, let’s say you own 100 shares of a $40 stock with a 2.5% yield. That means the company pays $1.00 per share in dividends each year, or 25 cents per quarter. This table shows how your dividend income and the size of your investment will change over the first year.

As you can see, reinvesting that first $25 increases your second dividend payment by 16 cents, because you now own another $25 worth of dividend-paying stock. By the end of the year, your quarterly dividends have increased to $25.47, and the value of your investment has increased by $100.94—that $100 is simply the dividend payments, which you would have earned whether or not you chose to reinvest. But the extra 94 cents is “dividends on dividends,” which you earned thanks to reinvesting.
Ninety-four cents may not seem like a lot, which is why the second important force at work here is time. After 10 years, your annual dividend income from this same position will be $126.31, up from $100.94 the first year. (That’s a yield on cost of 3.16%, based on your initial investment.) The value of your investment will be $5,132.11, without any appreciation in the stock price. One-hundred thirty-two dollars and eleven cents of that is thanks to your dividends on dividends. (If you hadn’t reinvested, the value of your investment would still be $4,000, and you would have collected $1,000 in dividends, for a total return of $5,000. The difference between that and $5,132.11 is what we’re calling dividends on dividends.)
After 30 years, your investment will be worth $8,448.26, and you’ll be earning $207.95 per year in dividends—you’ve more than doubled your original income, and are earning a yield on cost of 5.2%.
And that’s all without a single increase in the stock price, or the dividend. If you buy a Dividend Aristocrat that increases its dividend every year, your returns improve at every step. If the company in the example above increases its dividend by 5% per year, your annual income will reach $200 at the end of 10 years, instead of 30. After 30 years, your annual income will be a whopping $2,218.83, and your investment will be worth $22,022.24. Not bad for a stock that doesn’t go up!
Of course, if you buy a stock that does goes up over 30 years (as most of them do!) you’ll be even happier. While your reinvestments will occur at higher prices, the capital appreciation on those new shares more than makes up for it. (If you’re intrigued, search for a dividend reinvestment calculator online and punch in some real numbers.)
THE CASE AGAINST DRIP PLANS

While dividend reinvestment is powerful, there are a couple reasons why you might not want to reinvest your dividends.
DRIPs Drawback 1: You may need the dividend income
The most obvious reason is that you need the income. If you’re in the “distribution” phase of your investing life, dividends are a perfect source of passive income. Income from qualified dividends is taxed at the long-term capital gains rate (currently 15% for investors who are in the 25% to 35% tax bracket for ordinary income, 0% for taxpayers in a lower bracket and 20% for those in the highest bracket). So if you’re going to be looking to your portfolio for income every month anyway, it makes sense to have that cash deposited in your account.
DRIPs Drawback 2: You may need to reallocate your positions
You might also choose to stop reinvesting your dividends for allocation reasons. Reinvesting your dividends, through DRIP plans or otherwise, will cause your stock positions to grow over time, and if you’ve owned a particular issue for a long time, it may already be a large enough percentage of your portfolio. Higher-yielding positions will grow faster, which can throw your allocations out of whack pretty quickly. So once a stock position is as big as you want it to get (for now) feel free to turn off dividend reinvestment for that position, and either enjoy the extra income or save up the cash to invest in other stocks.
DRIPs Drawback 3: You may not want to buy that stock at that time
Finally, you may also have stock-specific reasons not to reinvest dividends—if a stock is temporarily overvalued, or you simply don’t want to buy any more of it at current prices.
But bottom line, reinvesting dividends through a broker or by signing up for DRIP plans directly through the dividend-paying companies, is a surprisingly powerful tool to passively improve your investment returns. So yes, DRIP plans are worth it, as long as they fit with your investing goals.

[trobin31]

Took BABA calls, monthly looks like a bottom if there were ever going to be one, china closing its doors for Olympics they are dreaming will occur

Yes....yesssssssss

[Madison]

Good time for you guys to get into nio. It should be up to 90 by start of 23.

Exploded today. Why?

[Madison]

Exploded today. Why?

Guy Adami CNBC just pumped NIO. FWIW.

[trobin31]

Based on what I am seeing once all this year end tax harvest selling is over, we may have a full send on risk assets before the cord gets pulled. I doubt they hit new highs with rate hikes coming. China, small caps, crypto might be where you want to be for at least the first few weeks of the year. SPY looks toppy AF but that really hasn’t meant anything since I can remember....still with rate hikes coming I don’t see how this party doesn’t end for TAANG soon and pull the SPY/QQQ with it.

For as much as retarded markets can stay retarded I don’t see how a risk off move doesn’t come by Fed March meeting. Maybe they just keep eating up bear money until 2022/23 and then some black swan happens...


shit is annoying and just dollar cost averaging is the way to go unless you really just have the patience to wait for macro bottoms.

[homie1975]

Happy New Year my Stock Brothers. !!!

[Slurry Pumper]

Hey SBR is back from an extended vacation. Happy New Year everyone.

Interesting market this week. The SPY looks like it is ready or just waiting for the chance to go higher to get above 480 while the QQQ has the look of a bull bear battle to say above the 20 and 50 day moving average. The Qs were down testing those averages yesterday and today it looks like we are testing the 20 DMA right out of the gate. We'll see what happens after some news this morning at 8:15, but if the 20 and 50 DMA don't hold, the next chance for support is 388.50.

What about the small to mid caps you say? This one is right at the point of inflection. All the moving averages I look at 9, 20, 50, 100, and 200 DMA are all cluster F'd together in between 227 and 220. So it is easy, above those averages and it is up the mountain slope and below is an alpine downhill event. As long as it stays in the range then it is a wait and see.

Hey did you mention the financials? Well the XLF is right at the high and its a wait and see if it can breach and go or get rejected.

The bottom line is I think there will be some volatile markets ahead later today after the 8:15 news, and don't forget the Fed will release some shyt later on today as well. The market will probably swing wildly going into the close, then probably reverse tomorrow when cooler heads digest the news. Should be fun to trade.

[trobin31]

The BABA trade to start the year....staying with this....think its gonna be a great BTFD, STFR until its not

[trobin31]

Going to take a week or two to pour through litany of research and 2022 outlooks from Blackrock, JP Morgan, Goldman etc, let you know if I find anything interesting

[JIBBBY]

It's all peaked out, even Crypto. Stagnant.

Time to cash out IMO now before the recession coming up. Cash will be king as always in a down economy. Good investments to find then. Sell high and buy low.

[Slurry Pumper]

Got your day trade alert right here on the SPY 471.50, and the QQQ 388.60. If reached sooner (like 10 minutes)

[KVB]

[rake922]

Federal reserve followed blueprint for causing a taper tantrum.... What sucks is they were warned not to do this for what? 6-9 months

[trobin31]

SPXL TECS, hopefully we get at least 10-20% off this and then get back to bizniz

if we take out 50WMA on IYT would go full nuclear protocol

[Slurry Pumper]

Got your day trade alert right here on the SPY 471.50, and the QQQ 388.60. If reached sooner (like 10 minutes)

Well they did get a bounce off of these levels but it petered out with only a 50 cent bounce in the Qs and the SPY had a 76 cent bounce.

Then it was back to the melt down. I chalk it up as a no harm no foul for a 10 minute scalp attempt.

[chase1]

Wow. This thread is still going on.

Hope everybody made it out alive from those pandemic lows back in '20....or better yet invested.

Looks like it is going to be a choppy year. I'm still a buyer I think this market rocks on but going to have to work harder at it this year for sure. Anyone else into options? I mainly sell puts or covered calls to generate income.

And sorry Homie1975 if I came across a little jerky back in March of '18. It was a good while ago I was only trying to help but I know I got rather opinionated. I hope you held and still are man.

[Slurry Pumper]

So the SPY, IWM, QQQ, XLF, SMH, and $DJT all got rejected yesterday right when the fed came out and took a dump on them. I had a couple of trades set up at some pretty major support, but after a small blip, they all continued down on more than typical volume. Today, it looks like things are going to open up at nearby support and we could have the buy the dip crowd coming in but I still think that the big tech names will continue down and since all the index markers are weighed heavily with big tech names, the rest of the market will follow . Sure there may be a wounded cat bounce for a little bit and maybe even going into the weekend, but I think the QQQs will be making a lower low off of the lower high it just made.

[trobin31]

I just grabbed TECS calls into this fugazi rally

[trobin31]

Baba still bullish and I’ve just been BTD/STR past two weeks, I think we see 138-140

[homie1975]

Wow. This thread is still going on.

Hope everybody made it out alive from those pandemic lows back in '20....or better yet invested.

Looks like it is going to be a choppy year. I'm still a buyer I think this market rocks on but going to have to work harder at it this year for sure. Anyone else into options? I mainly sell puts or covered calls to generate income.

And sorry Homie1975 if I came across a little jerky back in March of '18. It was a good while ago I was only trying to help but I know I got rather opinionated. I hope you held and still are man.

i don't remember what was posted back then but yes i held and then averaged down in late FEB 2020 and all of March the same year and got lucky.

my opened positions since Jan of 2021? not so lucky.

looking for spots to average down when it makes sense but right now the NAZZY is in a full TIZZY but before we know it we will be in "oversold territory" and i will re-pounce.

[Doublethink]

Playing the market game.

For me it is about taking shots at the S&P 500. It is just an easier # than the DOW and the Nasdaq. If you think it is going higher then stay long the index. If you feel lower then get long SDS. Trade in and out. Make your trading life simpler.

[vivablu]

baba is going to dump next week very hard along with all the chinese stocks it looks like...lot of pumping in the msm for baba this week and lot of call selling activity before the dump. baba should test $100 by jan 21 expiry.

[trobin31]

baba is going to dump next week very hard along with all the chinese stocks it looks like...lot of pumping in the msm for baba this week and lot of call selling activity before the dump. baba should test $100 by jan 21 expiry.

Yeah I don’t doubt it, I am trying to swing it every few days to 135-140 and then I am GG, if it fails I would love to catch it on the short side

[Slurry Pumper]

Other than financials, that cat didn't bounce. Only the SMH and IWM had a little lift while the SPY and da QQQs actually end up flat on the day. Still think the QQQs make a lower low (377ish) and that will drag down the SPY led by the Fangs.

[chase1]

i don't remember what was posted back then but yes i held and then averaged down in late FEB 2020 and all of March the same year and got lucky.

my opened positions since Jan of 2021? not so lucky.

looking for spots to average down when it makes sense but right now the NAZZY is in a full TIZZY but before we know it we will be in "oversold territory" and i will re-pounce.

Good deal. I'm looking to average down too on a few stocks I had put to me. Biggest positions I have right now are **** and Disney and I keep writing covered calls fairly often to bring down the cost basis. I'm up on V, not so much on DIS but if it can make a run into the mid 160's I can get that one called away and make out nicely.

I've got a few weekly puts on CRM, CRWD and PYPL that had some juicy premiums. I doubled down on CRM (Salesforce) yesterday writing some puts at 220 but I doubt it will get there tomorrow. My first trade on it was @240 so looks like I might take the stock. It's a solid company so I don't mind adding it. If you look at the chart, it has corrected from its highs around 300ish so it poised to go back up... not to 300 anytime soon but give me 250 and I'll unload it.

I agree we are close to oversold territory. No bounce today after a few days of selling off has me thinking we might get a few more down days, but we might be close to a near term bottom... hopefully long term. Ya can't never time this crazy market but think next week, maybe mid-week, is probably a good opportunity if we keep selling off.

[vivablu]

I think spy and qqq will drop to 200sma, then have epic bounce as fast as it went down and reach new highs before the big bust.

dia already went below 200sma in december but spy and qqq did not yet...so it will be their turn.