Stock Market Discussion -- started 03/06/2018 -- updated daily !!!

[trobin31]

BABA...yes we can

this is not the worst spot to take a fresh long/swing on BTC related names, funding is way short and trading well outside its BBs

[pabonaparte]

HODl

[Slurry Pumper]

OK so QQQ gets down to 378 and doesn't look like it is gonna make it to the 377 of lower target I have for this particular melt down. I'm riding the QQQ's back up from here for a few days via calls 378 strikes.

[KVB]

OK so QQQ gets down to 378 and doesn't look like it is gonna make it to the 377 of lower target I have for this particular melt down. I'm riding the QQQ's back up from here for a few days via calls 378 strikes.

[Slurry Pumper]

This morning is slightly down in the Futures but not too bad yet. I think we get a relief rally either today or tomorrow. Then again we can continue down and the relief rally wouldn't come until Wednesday on some catalyst news.

Speaking of catalyst news, as I sit here at around 7:30 this morning the Supreme court has yet to weigh in on the forced jabbing for the Chinese Sniffles. The cynical part of me thinks they will strike it down, but in true F U faction they will wait a while until the policy gets implemented and thus 2 of the 3 sides get what they want while American freedoms still suffer. Side A will get more vaxxed people, side B can say they stopped the mandate, and side C gets F'd by having their company they work for have a vaxxing program in place so they will just finish implementation.

[trobin31]

I am staying long TECS & BABA at least until March-ish

I added FAS as a play on financials

[Slurry Pumper]

Well we went pretty deep today on the melt down situation. The Qs made a lower low on the daily, but SPY is still making higher lows. IWM is trying to get back to the moving averages but has a bear flag look. On the weekly chart nothing is looking bad just yet. Things are above the 20 week moving average with the SPY, and QQQs.
I think we have a little bit of a rip from here this week, or at least into Wednesday. It's a sell the rip deal however. The market has changed even though it isn't reflected yet on the weekly charts.

[trobin31]

JPOW came out and went kind of dovish assuring no rate hikes are imminent...concerns for China supply chain issues given their Covid zero policy...all the crypto miners look bottomed and Ethereum especially looks bottomed AF...this might be the final melt up I’ve been expecting before the melt down

[trobin31]

US10Y also looks like it might be topping as well here at 1.76%....


tech could really rally hard here, I am gonna take a shot the CPI print is gonna come in cooler....closing TECS, longing QQQ, short XLF for now

have to have head on swivel this market, stay nimble and flexible or you get chopped da fuk up...but volatility is great when u can work it in your favor

[Madison]

US10Y also looks like it might be topping as well here at 1.76%....


tech could really rally hard here, I am gonna take a shot the CPI print is gonna come in cooler....closing TECS, longing QQQ, short XLF for now

have to have head on swivel this market, stay nimble and flexible or you get chopped da fuk up...but volatility is great when u can work it in your favor

XLF, XLE, and XLU overweight for me right now.

[rake922]

MS

All time high!

[chase1]

Love volatility. It gives you so many more opportunities. At least in what I do. Buy those calls and puts people I need ya

[Slurry Pumper]

Yeah, sell the rip on tech. Today was tough to trade. The SPY blew through 3 levels of support I was looking at before turning around and getting back north. I bet there were several traders today that got caught buying the dip then getting shook out by the continued decline only to kick themselves in the arse when it turned around. Tomorrow will probably follow through as dip buyers will come back and move the markets. I'm forecasting a gap up and a ride to 470ish on SPY, then 472. Even the QQQs will have a bounce and it will be looking to get above 384-385ish and if things get going in some irrational exuberance. 385, then 391.50 isn't out of touch.

OK Shit is going just like I said it would. The SPY stopped just short of 470 today, and the QQQs did a little better and got to almost 486.

For the QQQs 495 is the rip prize I see and if we get there before the weekend, I'll be jumping out of those calls I bought last Friday and added to on Monday and sell that rip before the weekend a little bit and jump heavily on the put train on Monday afterwards if things go well.

For the SPY, I ain't doing shit, but the IWM will be a good sell short deal the closer it gets to 225 before the weekend.


Keep in mind it can all fall apart if we gets CPI data that looks like shyt and the market just may sell off before hand anyway so you will have to watch, but I suspect that this move will last until the weekend and maybe early into nest week.

[Sanity Check]

[trobin31]

XLF, XLE, and XLU overweight for me right now.

I made a contrarian bet on CPI cooling and grabbed puts on XLF, longed QQQ...if he dies he dies but I’m gonna trust bond and dollar

[Madison]

I made a contrarian bet on CPI cooling and grabbed puts on XLF, longed QQQ...if he dies he dies but I’m gonna trust bond and dollar

Not sure I agree on CPI. I think we have a ways to go. We'll see. I did buy 40K of IBonds at 7.12%. I believe they mature/adjust semi-annually. With a limited penalty I just felt grabbing the 7.12 was a great Inflation hedge for the short term. Be interesting to see where they reset in May. BOL!

[trobin31]

Not sure I agree on CPI. I think we have a ways to go. We'll see. I did buy 40K of IBonds at 7.12%. I believe they mature/adjust semi-annually. With a limited penalty I just felt grabbing the 7.12 was a great Inflation hedge for the short term. Be interesting to see where they reset in May. BOL!

I’m just reading the bond market and dollar, not sure how we got to the point where 7% is below expectations but whatever...I see QQQ hitting 495’ish and getting rejecting so just gonna stay nimble, the dollar and yields are coming off and just really have to trade the macro indicators

[Madison]

I’m just reading the bond market and dollar, not sure how we got to the point where 7% is below expectations but whatever...I see QQQ hitting 495’ish and getting rejecting so just gonna stay nimble, the dollar and yields are coming off and just really have to trade the macro indicators

I think "Stay Nimble" is the operative term for the short term. BOL Bud!

[Slurry Pumper]

OK ya'll, this reversal rally is starting to get old now that both the QQQ and SPY have moved up into the "zone" where I think resistance will show up. The IWM and DJT are down today and those are my favorite leading indicators so tomorrow I'll be getting out of the QQQ calls I got last week. I hope there is a gap up so I can sell but even if we start down I'll get out and protect those profits. Then, sometime either Friday or perhaps Monday, I'll be buying more of those puts with the March termination. Hell if things go really bad tomorrow for the PPI report, I may be jumping on the moving train down in the QQQs. I mentioned that the IWM would be a good short this week, but it looks like that train started a day earlier than I thought it would. If it can't get back above 219.25 on say a pop up or something which I'm not expecting. I'll be letting it go and will look somewhere else.

I think we really get a pretty big dip here BTW.

[Sanity Check]

IT HAPPENED! Elon Musk FINALLY Reveals New Plan to Buy Toyota


...

For real?

[Slurry Pumper]

SMH got curb stomped today and on volume.
QQQ is the next in line in terms of a big down day with elevated volume.
SPY has a little larger than a bad day on slightly more than usual volume.
IWM had a down day but not more than any other average down day and volume was normal. Yesterday was a down day as the 2 day total is still a little less than the SPY loss.
XLF had pretty much the same day as the IWM but hanging out near the highs eating time off the clock waiting. Waiting for what, probably a large move to the upside on better than expected earnings tomorrow.

Last night I told you I was exiting my call positions in the QQQs and getting on board the PUT train if they started to head down south and that is what I did but I stepped in lightly. Tomorrow we are all set up for a big ass collapse if everything goes bad. We have banks reporting and I think they will be probably pretty good numbers which suggest that we will not have a melt down and therefore it could be a rescue day for the tech and semiconductors. This will be like giving the condemned a call from the governor with a temporary stay for a while With out the banks melting down it is highly unlikely that the rest of the market will melt away. IF I had to guess, and I pretty much do everyday after reading the tape, I would say tomorrow will be a rescue operation off of higher than normal bank earning with the QQQs and SMH as not participating that much but no melt down. That will come next week say Wednesday - Friday.

[Slurry Pumper]

I'm a little surprised the pre-market is down a few hundred points on the DOW. This can get ugly this morning if the wall street ambulatory unit doesn't come in to play defense this morning.

SPY numbers of support 460, then 456 ouch and 450.50 for the goal line defense.

QQQ's numbers 374, 369, and the goal line defense for the bulls is 364.70.

[trobin31]

Yep, they are now talking about Russia on Bloomberg and MSM finally...WH press sec Ginger Psaki It To Me...is saying a black flag will be the probable cause for invasion....hopefully this is just an intimidation tactic by Putin...we shall see but I took a shot on DFEN just in case

fukin snowy is KGB

[Madison]

This one might be worth a look - Fluorspar - Ares Mining

This Company Is Bringing Essential Mining Back To The U.S. – Fueled By Government Action (energymetalnews.com)

I am very interested in the domestic mining of Materials deemed "Strategic"

[Madison]

Yep, they are now talking about Russia on Bloomberg and MSM finally...WH press sec Ginger Psaki It To Me...is saying a black flag will be the probable cause for invasion....hopefully this is just an intimidation tactic by Putin...we shall see but I took a shot on DFEN just in case

fukin snowy is KGB

DFEN. I have small pieces of 4 or 5 of the underlying companies. Crazy chart yoy. Would have been great play a month ago. 3X can get a little hairy for my demographic.

[Madison]

DFEN. I have small pieces of 4 or 5 of the underlying companies. Crazy chart yoy. Would have been great play a month ago. 3X can get a little hairy for my demographic.

.

Check out the 12/09/21 dividend. That's one healthy div (.339) for a circa $22 stock, which might explain the sharp decline

[Slurry Pumper]

Its unusual for the markets to start a week after the holiday with a downward movement. I'm already on the Put Train in the nasdaq QQQs for march termination in a pretty heavy way and I keep buying more every wave up that doesn't make a new high.

Looking for the banks ETF XLF to come back and find support at around $40, then $39.50 and maybe even $39 before the week is done. I'll be using my toe step in method starting at the $39.25 level (16.6 %) then $39 for (33.3%), and finally $38.75 (50%). I'll be stopped out when we get a daily close below $38.35.

[alling]

SPY overbought about 20%. SPY futures down almost 1%. Was going to buy puts expiring Friday now looking at calls if we go down more. Expiration today or tomorrow.

[Lineman]

double bottom or more downside.....?

[Slurry Pumper]

double bottom or more downside.....?

Sorry I can't recreate this index on ThinkorSwim. To give my answer, I would have to look at several charts such as the weekly, daily, and monthly charts. Then relate them on where the moving averages are and support levels. Is there an equivalent for the ThinkorSwim platform that you are aware of?
I usually make a determination of if a stock is going to hold a key level by how it is acting on all of these charts right as it is at support which this chart looks like it might be.

[Madison]

MY 2 cents, if it looks like it, smells like it, etc feels like this is going low, low, lower,

While I'm glad I trimmed over the last 6 months, I'm still out 3K today. I'm buying the "baby with the bathwater" ie materials, Lithium etc which I feel have NO relevance to this move.

[chase1]

Think the selling is almost done especially in tech. Valuations are becoming reasonable (it will always be overvalued) but we probably have another day or two down before the buyer's step in. I dipped my toe in and sold a few puts on BAC and JPM.... also got some juicy premiums on MS since they are reporting earnings in the morning. Goldman took it on the chin but going to wait another day as I believe it keeps selling off. Will definitely sell puts on it by Wednesday if it's still going down.

I don't hold many stocks it is not the strategy I like to use but you're inevitably going to carry some when you write as many puts as I do but only taking solid companies with good balance sheets. I am holding V I S A and Disney and they held up well--actually up slightly today which was a good sign. The other one I hold is Salesforce and it was down a little. I've lowered my cost basis to about 235ish writing covered calls so overall down about -9. I'm not worried about it. The 200 day is about 255 and good support levels around 215 dating back to Aug'20. If it slices through that I will double up on my shares at 195-200.

With earnings season underway it will be an interesting week

[homie1975]

today before the closing bell i averaged down on:

UPST
SNOW
ASAN
ZM (speculating that they will expand into other areas)

did NOT have the heart to average down on SQ. I am concerned about that company and the competition in the space right now and how they are stacking up. i initially thought they were a disruptor so i went in with one gun blazing (not two).

[chase1]

I'm about to pull the trigger on UPST. A lot of upside potential!

ZM is way oversold. It needs to break out of that spiraling downtrend though. I keep thinking it will level off soon, but it keeps getting dragged down by the Nasdaq. Side note- I like the cyber security sector. My favorite is Pal Alto (PANW), and their ETF is HACK. It's a good one to consider.

[trobin31]

Should get a little bounce tomorrow but trend is downnnnn

waitint to see if IYT nukes through 50WMA