i am new to the world of sports betting and asked several people about value plays.......the object of ever wager i make is to win regardless if my wager is a plus money line a... a minus moneyline or a minus 110 bet...to me the only value is the one that lets me cash..the one that dont let you cash have no value//unless it burns slowly and you can roll your weed in it
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This is true in an ideal world. Problem is, we don't live in an ideal world. No wager is guaranteed. A value play is when a team is valued at a better price than they should be. For example, if a dog has a line of +150 but you think the game should be a bit closer, maybe +120, perhaps this is when a value play should be taken. You know that the favourites are maybe a better team but on the whole the game will be tight and this could be one where the dogs rise and take the game.Comment -
Easiest way I can explain it is with the old coin toss analogy.
You know the true chance of either side is:
.500 (50%) or odds of +100.
The books will offer you -110 (bad value. You are guaranteed to lose over time)
You need to bet at odds of +110 (value. You are guaranteed to win over time)
You obviously won't find +110 odds for a coin toss, but you will find +110 odds (or better) on a sports team.
You need a prediction model that tells you when the team should be priced lower than the books have it.
You will not win every bet, but with a disciplined staking approach and an accurate model you will come out ahead over time.
Sorry if that isn't as clear as it should be. The concept is fairly straightforward.
Of course, minus money lines can also be value.
Odds of -200 represent a perceived chance of 66%
if your model tells you that a team is a 70% chance of winning then the -200 is a value bet.Comment -
thanks for the response it really helped me understand xomewhatjust see so many people getting bashed for their plays that they post and no one supporting plays with value or not....thanks againComment