Dollars2Donuts NBA, NFL, NHL, MLB and assorted sports thread - Beginning January 2015

[fitguy67]

nba...where annoying happens...

you bet on these millionarire entertainers as if they are actually trying to win...

unfortunately it's too easy to make the playoffs, so any of the good teams ae just biding their time, not wanting to peak too soon...cuz there's no REAL balls to the wall hi-intensity play till the playoffs...

hockey, baseball, any other team sport (with exception of soccer that has so many complications due to the number of different competitions they're in at the same time...so they also prioritize their effort)...you don't get the feeling they're just exhibition scrimmaging like in NBA...

razzle-dazzle "don't really care who wins tonight...as long as we make the playoffs" bullshit entertainment

i don't even classify regular-season NBA as an actual sport in the way that i talk about in the post at the top of this page...

so fukkin' maddening to have a bet on a game when these bastids don't even care...just going' thru the motions...win or lose, they make an average joe's year-salary tonight just for mugging at the camera

oops..."rantometer" just started beeping...that is all

[ridersonthestorm]

Hoping for OT

The only hope is fouling, fouling and fouling again. Mere 9 points in 49 secs. Easy.

Of course, if you are Orlando. 8)

The bigger wonder is scoring about 50 in mid 3rd and still get OVER 200...

[madeinchin4]

How did they not foul with 42 seconds left???

[Seaweed]

I had Bobcats ML live at +380

[cburland10]

Lol had them o197.. tooooo close

[dalogester]

Yeah well most people didn't get them at 197. So I don't think this is a win

[ridersonthestorm]

How did they not foul with 42 seconds left???

Or why Orlando kept fouling while losing by 10+ with less than a minute to play, thus teams scoring 23 points in the last 2 mins and screwing dead certain "under".

Seems like lottery, never know what flies are buzzing in those millionaires heads.

[fitguy67]

with less than 90 seconds on the clock, team's down a dozen fouling like they have a chance (and their opponents inexplicably "helping out" by running & gunning) to eff up a locked-in under that books have been raking in the live-bet money on

other nights, a team's down just a hanful of points and doesn't foul to get more possessions and doesn't exhibit any sense of urgency...to "amazingly eff up a dead-nuts over that live-betting has been disproportionately attracting big money toward

amazing is one thing...end-game strategies that amazingly-often defy logic is another thing altogether...

[fitguy67]

Yeah well most people didn't get them at 197. So I don't think this is a win

go to post #132 near the bottom of the previous page to see exactly what plays are being graded...

judging from your tone-- you obviously will be pleased to note that both will be graded a loss

think before you insinuate

[Dollars2Donuts]

go to post #132 near the bottom of the previous page to see exactly what plays are being graded...

judging from your tone-- you obviously will be pleased to note that both will be graded a loss

think before you insinuate

Hey FG....

As posted, I doubled up at 199 for another $150...

Then I responded to the post about it falling to 197.5.....I was driving on the highway, but I hit it again for another $150. I can post screenshots at the end of the day to verify, and those will have the times the bets were placed, which will exactly correspond to what I posted on the site.

If that shitty 3 pointer that Ross took at the end had gone down I would have won all 3 and we would have all been winners.

Ross and Williams (the guys I said would have a good game) were a total of 1 of 12 from 3 point range.....8%. This game came down to TERRIBLE shooting from TO....it certainly was not Charlotte's defense.

I will post screen shots later tonight.

[fitguy67]

so you hit it a third time as well?

cha/tor,o 200.5	154.5	150
cha/tor,o 199	154.5	150

these two as i posted earlier at -103 (you were on the road, so i just estimated the price of the second one as the same)

and a third play also, similar to the

cha/tor, o197.5, -105...that i got at 19:04

the only one i know the full details of for sure is the first one, but if you post the two you added in the usual 5d time-stamped fashion...definitely kosher...you'll have gone just 1-2, losing 1.5ish units while many of us who tailed hit much closer to tip off and actually pushed or even won by the hook

Anyhow, i'm glad you managed to join "club 197.5" yourself and join in on that all-too-rare experience by WINNING by the hook (the opposite seems to happen too often to even count)

[Dollars2Donuts]

so you hit it a third time as well?

cha/tor,o 200.5	154.5	150
cha/tor,o 199	154.5	150

Yes, a third time at 197.5.....I just got to my hotel room.....will attach the screen shot.

[Dollars2Donuts]

And this gives you the accurate numbers for the juice that I lost.

[fitguy67]

looks like one of those "good days that easily could have been a great day"...both fla and mia/por, over looking solid to close the day...

every day just seems to start shitty and end ok...just statistical variance, i'm sure...but sure is an agonizing way for things to unfold

[fitguy67]

dollar, or anyone else that knows...how to expand that screenshot in #152

the "slide-bar" ones i sussed out...but for the one you just sent.. i end up using magnifier (and have to blow up like 500% to see it)...
__________

anyhow, your story checks out solid...

o200.5, -103
o199, -105
o197.5, -105will all be counted

[fitguy67]

mkt	type	play	risk	target	grd	chng	592
b	t	cha/tor,o 200.5	154.5	150	L	-154.5	437.5
b	t	cha/tor,o 199	157.5	150	L	-157.5	280
b	t	cha/tor,o 197.5	157.5	150	W	150	430
b	t	mia/por,u 197	153	150	W	150	580
h	s	stl	310	200	W	200	780
h	t	dal/nas,u 5.5	165	150	W	150	930
h	s	win	119	100	L	-119	811
h	t	win/arz,o 5	140	100	P		811
h	s	col	202.5	150	W	150	961
h	t	ott/col,u 5.5	165	150	L	-165	796
h	s	fla	100	150	W	150	946

summary for d.006, rJ08

previous	26	24	592.00
changes	6	4	354.00
new	32	28	946.00

[Dollars2Donuts]

looks like one of those "good days that easily could have been a great day"...both fla and mia/por, over looking solid to close the day...

every day just seems to start shitty and end ok...just statistical variance, i'm sure...but sure is an agonizing way for things to unfold

Portland Miami is actually an under....I am assuming that you knew that and just typed the wrong word. It looked like a lock.....but with six minutes left both teams just keep fouling each other....no idea why. They aren't in the same conference, no rivalry or anything and Portland is up 20. Everyone should be playing to just get out of there....instead they are playing like it is a 2 point game in game 7 of the finals.

I think we are going to lose another close one here.

[Dollars2Donuts]

mkt	type	play	risk	target	grd	chng	592
b	t	cha/tor,o 200.5	154.5	150	L	-154.5	437.5
b	t	cha/tor,o 199	157.5	150	L	-157.5	280
b	t	cha/tor,o 197.5	157.5	150	W	150	430
b	t	mia/por,u 197	153	150	W	150	580
h	s	stl	310	200	W	200	780
h	t	dal/nas,u 5.5	165	150	W	150	930
h	s	win	119	100	L	-119	811
h	t	win/arz,o 5	140	100	P		811
h	s	col	202.5	150	W	150	961
h	t	ott/col,u 5.5	165	150	L	-165	796
h	s	fla	100	150	W	150	946

summary for d.006, rJ08

previous	26	24	592.00
changes	6	4	354.00
new	32	28	946.00

Dude.....you aren't actually calculating this at the start of the fourth Q? I don't believe in jinxes, but that seems a little presumptuous.

[fitguy67]

btw, the above is tentative...it's surprisingly easy to make at least one knucklehead error doing this...the brain says W, but the fingers say L or vice versa...

you guyz chek this over, and let me know if something's cocked up..to prevent an error from being fossilized and have some whiny twat insinuate weeks/months later it was intentionally done to pad the record to attract tout $$ to finance a Vancouver child-molestation ring
____________

this is the first thread in sbr history that has it's own onboard error-correction protocol!

I'm starting to like the way this is shaping up, hitting our rhythms in both the play-selection and record-keeping departments...

________________________________________




Damn D, you're right..started out as just preparatory...and forgot in the middle of it, that it wasn't over...and cuz this is NBA we're talking about...it REALLY ain't over till it's over...er, in this case "it ain't over till it's under"

i'm in an Oprah Channel mood right now, so let's "repackage" this affront to the gambling gods into...my sub-conscious cultivating its confidence...

update: whew! confidence (very misplaced...NBA totals are the very last sort of thing on the betting planet to be taken for granted) was cultivated

[Dollars2Donuts]

Lol. Good call, and the under came in easy....15 points worth of breathing room.

I agree....it is starting to feel good and I am creating some breathing room, which always makes things feel a lot better.

What i am most interested to find out is where my leaks are.....how well I do on overs in the NBA, unders, same in hockey, football, etc.

That kind of info is going to be amazing....because I have never tracked any of that. I am also interested to know my percentages on different sizes of bets....my strike-rate if you will. Should I eliminate mid-range wagers, big wagers, one unit wagers.....

Do you see any other uses? Am I correct in thinking that you will be able to find out these type of things?

[Dollars2Donuts]

And 'lol' to the tout comment.

I have to say, it is nice that nobody accuses me of that anymore....and with third party tracking, it shouldn't ever happen again. I am surprised by my percentage so far....but glad about when I am dollar-wise. If I can profit an average of .75 units per day I will always hit my goals.....and hopefully I can move upward from $100 units to $200 and beyond again. It's been a while since I have made some really large bets.

[fitguy67]

was a pleasure...till tomorrow, sir

[Russian Rocket]

dollar, or anyone else that knows...how to expand that screenshot in #152

Unfortunately you can't expand and image once it has been uploaded to this site. To make pages load faster, this site limits the size of the data ( images in particular) that you can attach here...it also shrinks the original image size. To avoid this problem in the future, Dollar needs to use a free site like tinyurl.com to first upload the original image there and then provide you with a direct link to that image.


kinda like this:

http://i57.tinypic.com/52hmp4.jpg

or he can click on the little Insert Image icon at the Top Nav bar and place it there, to get this:





BTW Excellent last few days Dollar!

[Dollars2Donuts]

Cheers buddy! Thanks for checking in. No huge days, slow grind so far....but I will take it!

[ridersonthestorm]

Well done Dollar, have success next time, too.

[fitguy67]

Lol. Good call, and the under came in easy....15 points worth of breathing room.

I agree....it is starting to feel good and I am creating some breathing room, which always makes things feel a lot better.

What i am most interested to find out is where my leaks are.....how well I do on overs in the NBA, unders, same in hockey, football, etc.

That kind of info is going to be amazing....because I have never tracked any of that. I am also interested to know my percentages on different sizes of bets....my strike-rate if you will. Should I eliminate mid-range wagers, big wagers, one unit wagers.....

Do you see any other uses? Am I correct in thinking that you will be able to find out these type of things?

chek ur pm, pal

[madeinchin4]

You have been amazing even with some bad beats.

[fitguy67]

D, here's a taste of the power of excel...

report breaking down the results among the two active sports, H and B...
and the two active bet-types I take the trouble to distinguish at this point...
s = sides (HC and ML, which is simply a special HC=0 bet...for some game or specified part of game)
t=totals (anything based on a result being "over or under" a number, includes props as well, including y/n= vs. 0.5)

sure you can always break these categories down (separate overs and unders, MLs and HCs/day games & night...)...but diminishing returns (value of new information vs. the complications generated) escalates quickly

and at this early stage of just 6 days/60 plays...this is plenty subdivided enough...still nothing to act in any way upon...just something to monitor...this post is really just a demo-prototype of this fitguy-generated facility...

h	9	8	142.50	s
h	3	1	310.50	t
h	12	9	453.00	all
b	4	7	-329.50	s
b	12	9	647.50	t
b	16	16	318.00	all
f	4	3	175.00	all
sum	32	28	946.00	vsum

note all the totals in the bottom row match the previous (non broken-down) figures...

_________

a few betpoints in the jar of the broke-dikk-fukk blind piano-player who prepared this would be appreciated you free-riding bastids (and i don't mean, D2D...he's bucked up for the lifetime package!)

and the post below with the new (day07's) picks is looking pretty lonely without any of those nice little "rectangles" at the bottom (and i don't mean "nominations" you cheap bastids)...if you read and benefit from this thread, say "thanks" in the tiny litte way that sbr makes available to you...

might i suggest you consider the "official supporter" subscription...simply zapping each of us one measly point a day (or alternating 2-points every other day)...seening lotsa little rectangly "warm fuzzies" at the bottom of some of our posts cozies up the atmosphere in here considerably

it's not the points--even if you're a pro, they're hardly worth a bucket of warm spit--but they do indicate appreciation...and help to keep the ever-present "fukkit, i'm outa here" spirits away

_______________

that is all

[Dollars2Donuts]

Today's wagers:

286059679-1	1/9/15 12:20pm	$101.00	$100.00	Pending	1/9/15 7:05pm Reduced Basketball 801 Boston Celtics/Indiana Pacers Under 197½ -101*
286059679-2	1/9/15 12:20pm	$157.50	$150.00	Pending	1/9/15 7:35pm Reduced Basketball 803 Philadelphia 76ers/Brooklyn Nets Under 190½ -105*
286059679-3	1/9/15 12:20pm	$157.50	$150.00	Pending	1/9/15 7:35pm Reduced Basketball 805 Atlanta Hawks/Detroit Pistons Over 203½ -105*
286059679-4	1/9/15 12:20pm	$102.00	$100.00	Pending	1/9/15 7:35pm Reduced Basketball 806 Detroit Pistons +2½ -102* <small style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;">vs</small> Atlanta Hawks
286059679-5	1/9/15 12:20pm	$103.00	$100.00	Pending	1/9/15 8:05pm Reduced Basketball 809 Utah Jazz/Oklahoma City Thunder Under 197½ -103*
286059679-6	1/9/15 12:20pm	$101.00	$100.00	Pending	1/9/15 8:05pm Reduced Basketball 811 Memphis Grizzlies +2 -101* <small style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;">vs</small> New Orleans Pelicans
286059679-7	1/9/15 12:20pm	$162.00	$150.00	Pending	1/9/15 8:35pm Reduced Basketball 813 Minnesota Timberwolves/Milwaukee Bucks Over 204 -108*
286059679-8	1/9/15 12:20pm	$108.00	$100.00	Pending	1/9/15 8:35pm Reduced Basketball 814 Milwaukee Bucks -8½ -108* <small style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;">vs</small> Minnesota Timberwolves
286059679-9	1/9/15 12:20pm	$125.00	$100.00	Pending	1/9/15 7:05pm Reduced Hockey 1 New York Islanders/New Jersey Devils Over 5 -125*
286059679-10	1/9/15 12:20pm	$100.00	$148.00	Pending	1/9/15 7:05pm Reduced Hockey 2 New Jersey Devils +148* <small style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;">vs</small> New York Islanders
286059679-11	1/9/15 12:20pm	$100.00	$102.00	Pending	1/9/15 7:35pm Reduced Hockey 5 Columbus Blue Jackets/Toronto Maple Leafs Over 6 +102*
286059679-12	1/9/15 12:20pm	$284.00	$200.00	Pending	1/9/15 9:05pm Reduced Hockey 8 Calgary Flames -142* <small style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;">vs</small> Florida Panthers

[Dollars2Donuts]

D, here's a taste of the power of excel...

report breaking down the results among the two active sports, H and B...
and the two active bet-types I take the trouble to distinguish at this point...
s = sides (HC and ML, which is simply a special HC=0 bet...for some game or specified part of game)
t=totals (anything based on a result being "over or under" a number, includes props as well, including y/n= vs. 0.5)

sure you can always break these categories down (separate overs and unders, MLs and HCs/day games & night...)...but diminishing returns (value of new information vs. the complications generated) escalates quickly

and at this early stage of just 6 days/60 plays...this is plenty subdivided enough...still nothing to act in any way upon...just something to monitor...this post is really just a demo-prototype of this fitguy-generated facility...

h	9	8	142.50	s
h	3	1	310.50	t
h	12	9	453.00	all
b	4	7	-329.50	s
b	12	9	647.50	t
b	16	16	318.00	all
f	4	3	175.00	all
sum	32	28	946.00	vsum

That is awesome.....once we have a few months of data, this will REALLY help.

I got your PM but haven`t had time to respond.....tons of good info, and no worries, I am very patient.

Cheers man!

[fitguy67]

glance at the original post, #168, again...i just corrected the bold-facing so "exactly what is being summed up" is now much clearer

[Dollars2Donuts]

Nice. And as far as betpoints are concerned, it may be a bit of time before the thread gains some steam. My last thread could get as many as 6000-7000 views per day and this thread is only getting a small fraction of that. That should change. I haven't seen a lot of the typical guys around yet at all.

[madeinchin4]

Dollar, can I get your take on the Bucks vs T-wolves game?

why do you think there's is a better chance of going over 204?

Because i I see the bucks playing good defense this season and T-Wolves are not a very great scoring team.

[gregmav1]

i dont plan on becoming an SBR PRO anytime soon (it wont let me see anything in the sbr store, its just a blank page, stupid. maybe its because im not a pro) so ill try to send you guys betpoints when I can.. i feel like D2D has no interest in them really so i'll probably send most to fitguy but ill alternate them around. the rare quality, informational, and well-kept results thread.

[fitguy67]

i have no intention on becoming an SBR PRO (it wont let me see anything in the sbr store, its just a blank page, stupid. maybe its because im not a pro) so ill try to send you guys betpoints when I can.. i feel like D2D has no interest in them really so i'll probably send most to fitguy but ill alternate them around. the rare quality, informational, and well-kept results thread.

the 'preciation is 'preciated pal...

btw: the expression to describe something of negligible or questionable value (such as sbr-points)...by saying that "it ain't worth a bucket of warm spit" is an actual quotation that goes back many many decades to one of early vice-presidents of the USA...he used it to describe--on the public record-- his job!...i heard that once on a documentary a long time ago...and the vividness/brilliance of that metaphor has etched itself into my repertoire