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Reading through things now, I guess it understand...BUT, if that wager had lost and I said it was $200 would anyone have believed it? Hell no. And no way I would have tried to claim it was anything other than what it was.Comment -
Yeah i hear you D2D. If I had known you had a max wager of 5 then things might have made more sense, maybe other people do but I had no idea what that meant and stuff. GL with rest of bets, day starting to turn around for ya.
And yeah, I don't think we're trying to bust your balls, you're just one of the few with a legit thread and I figure you'd like to be as legit and fair as possible and this might not be something that comes to mind for you from our end.Last edited by gregmav1; 01-10-15, 10:22 PM.Comment -
just unfortunate, i definitely understand your frustration...as long as you understand my motivation is not to dictate arbitrarily but to keep 100% defensible books...
good thing is, from now on it'll be dead simple, even if on the road to know ur play will be ok...
as long as there's still time to bet, and your post says the play, the price and the bet-size...no drama will be generated
now let's get some of these late ones!!!!Comment -
Funny. I just read about Jimmy Howard and how he was taken off the ice a minute into the Detroit game.
So today, in the NHL, I had two starting G's taken off the ice in the first 5 minutes of their starts.
Lol.Comment -
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I doubt it matters anymore FG.
Been posting for two years. Today may be my retirement.
I am terrible.
That is all.Comment -
Portland over 99 -110 2nd half.
oops, to win $200Comment -
Carolina's special teams are atrocious. They just have no clue.
GL tomorrow everyone.Comment -
lemme guess...u just got a gander at the panthers/seahawks...ouch...
remember my quote from the other day, "character is what's left after the enthusiasm leaves"...
we're in this for the long haul, pal...can't let a shtty day get to you...
even making the smartest of plays...such as a fair coin toss set at Tails +110/Heads -120...solid 5% edge on Tails right...the smart play...and there are 15 flips a day at these odds...and the public has a fascination with Heads so the books are makin' money long-term off them...and the minority of sharp cats can get down all the Tails +110 action they want...
anyhow, an ideal money-making schtick, right? 15 plays selected every day--check, money over time because of the 5% edge--check...
now is the sharp bettor guaranteed a profit every day, just cuz he's on the right side...
hell no!...there'll be the occasional 2-13 days, 1-14, hell even 0-15 days where'll u'll give the book some of what u've been takin'...variance is a two-way street...
an edge (even an undeniably real 5% one as we have here)...DOES guarantee profit over the haul...
BUT IT DOESN'T vaccinate you from the shitty runs of runs detrimental to the smart (long-term winning) side...
the smart cat doesn't leave a winning long-term gig because of what he knew before he sat down, that results ebb and flow in waves of Heads and Tails...of Square and Sharp...
as long as bet size is kept to a sensibly small-% of the roll..you're stupid to change your view that the fair coin flip with a +110 payout is what it is, long-term money....instead you must just add in the realization that the game is also hi-variance...so it's not a smooth up-ride along a 5%-ROI path...it's a VERY BUMPY up ride along a 5%-ROI path
you can't take the bumps personally...just cuz u'v (wisely) bet Tails 15 times today and it came up only 4 times doesn't mean you didn't "cap" it correctly...variance= the way the coin tosses= the way the cookie crumbles=the way the cards are flipped = the way the games play out...all of it...everything in real life comes in "waves" of tails/heads, hot/cold, fat/skinny, over/under, profitable/unprofitable...
all you can do is keep puttin' on the sharp plays...and keep the bet size a small enough % to survive the inevitable "bad weather"...you can't stop the heads from comin' up 50% on avg....considerably more than that on bad days...so you divide up your roll into lotsa small bullets...so that even after a shit run...you still have lotsa bullets left...and you can keep firin' in a game with a long-term 5% gain, but also with a guarantee of fairly big up-swings and down=swings along that path ...can't be avoided cuz you can't avod Heads coming up/a flu bug hitting a team you backed/etc.
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you gotta develop the composure to not get bummed out by bad results and take them personally...you didn't make Hiller play like shit, just like you didn't make the coin turn up Heads...all you can do is put on the right plays and be patient...taking the winning (tails-rich) days in stride with the inevitable losing (heads-rich) days...
capiche...perspective and composure...don't get shaken off a winning path,just because it's bumpy...
that is allLast edited by fitguy67; 01-11-15, 12:28 AM.Comment -
In ATP tennis might want to parlay Federer (-3) and Warwinka (-5) tonight. Also looking to tease Dallas (+12) at Green Bay and Wizards (+9) at Atlanta.Comment -
I am already on Federer tonight. Again, I won't be teasing anything soon, but thanks.Comment -
Kings game is gonna cash.....
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Cold as iceComment -
D, I need you to post a screenshot of your last 4 bets (2 on the on the cal/van NHL game, 2 on the orl/por NBA game)Comment -
congrats, BTW on finishing strong with those 4 winners
actually, everything looks fine...i just want to see that the orl/por, o195 was indeed pre-game and not live...
here's what i have
h s cal+1.5 310 200 W 2 -155 h t van/cal,u 5.5 340 250 W 2.5 -136 b t orl/por,o 195 204 200 W 2 -102 b t 2h,orl/por,o 99 220 200 W 2 -110 Last edited by fitguy67; 01-11-15, 01:14 AM.Comment -
Seems you can't accept the idea that some plays--the ones that are very hard to tail accurately (live-bets and pre-gamers posted VERY close to the windoow's close, as were tonight's second CAL/VAN and first ORL/POR plays) should NOT be mixed into the same record as the early-posted/easy-to-tail ones. You can still announce them, discuss them, hi-five/bitch about them...and maintain/report your very own side-tally of them if you wish...but keep them off the thread-tally such as the one i've been trying to keep as indicative as possible of the $-"mileage" a new conscientious follower might expect.
It's wrong to mix the two very-different types of plays together...Many/most cappers "get" this...take a look at Seto's NBA thread, for example, and you'll see how the OP often mentions other stuff he's doing for his own account...such as trying to hit a middle last night on one of yesterday's official plays...but it's always clear that such things are purely extracurricular, strictly "off the record"...the official record includes only those posted well before gametime...no additional gymnastics necessary. If their extracurricular/hard to follow stuff hits they win, you know, money...that's the reward...not "getting to count it" on a thread record thst isn't designed to reflect the results of such a hit and miss (depending purely if you were lucky/unlucky enough to see something in time) process. Shoutouts also to Nocoin, ElNino, Zedenok, EaglesPhan36 and many many other quality thread-runners in this regard...in fact, ALL good cappers posting on a public forum take pains to keep the black-/grey- action clearly separate from the white.
D, Remember how your last thread was poisoned at the end by a few guys who were constantly whining about you crediting $ to your record on the basis of wins on plays that, although you could certainly prove you submitted them, would be damn-near impossible for anyone to tail...They did have a point...and i offered to do your books for you to defuse that point...read what i wrote on page1/post 1 again to see this. Ihis issue will not go away as long as you see inclusion on a thread record to hinge simply on your ability to prove the YOU made a play. YOU got the money result for the damn-near-un-tailable plays...that's enough in this situation. In contrast, for money you help OTHERS make with early-postings, then u desrve the $ you made on the play yourself AND the "extra-credit" of being included on a record which is designed precisely to show how helpful your play-calling is to OTHERS...not just to yourself...get it?
I've encouraged you a few times to keep a side-tally of these "hooray for me...and anybody else lucky enough to have actually joined me in the minutes remaining after my post became readable and the time the bet went off the board"...because they will help to sharpen your game in these area...but insisting that they be mixed in with those the typical tail-gater is likely to be able to actually hit is misleading, especially to a noob who tends to look at a thread record as something reasonably indicative of what they can expect if they follow along conscientiously.
If you're not sure that I'm right about this...call for a show of hands on how many people shared in VAN/CAL, u5.5 and/or the ORL/POR, o195 plays as a result of seeing your post in thiis thread. These two plays alone account for more than half of the current ytd...The other half is from a few TENNIS (not even mentioned in the title) posted 20-minutes before a 4am match...i would hazard a guess that no-one apart from you got the two tennis plays AND the 4 late night plays on those two games i refer to above...you should keep these off the record because the record is designed to indicate how good your play-calling is at helping others make money...not to count all the money YOU made including those that others clearly had little chance to share in.
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You are a really good guy and a really good capper. Hope you eventually come to appreciate the essential purpose of posting on a public forum vs.in your own personal journal...and how it gives different answers to the question "what to leave in...what to leave out"?
i don't want to be continually painted as a kill-joy debbie-downer every time i nix a play on the basis of it's un-tailability (damn, there's a new word for the "sbr glossary")...so, i'm outa here...
lotsa luck on both the early-posted/public plays that affect your bankroll AND clearly belong in your official thread record...and also on the "guyz i also did this, and i can prove i did it" plays that affect your bankroll BUT clearly do not belong in the official record (altho' could easily be kept and reported as a very-separate and very-interesting side-tally).
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OK, the vebose one is done...enjoy your mun...have fun.Last edited by fitguy67; 01-11-15, 03:50 PM.Comment -
Keep up the good work here. Keep your head up. The Orlando/Portland game was a push at 195Comment -
Is this thread really dead after only 1 week...?? :/Comment -
fit guy Is gonna get firedComment -
fitguy
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fitguy is 100% in the right here. d2d is one of the best cappers and guys on here but fitguy is right on the money with his post. i hope d2d realizes that. hopefully he aint done posting forever.Comment -
This thread should be dead. Would save a lot of people money.
Don't know why anyone would bet 20 games in a day.. There's not 20 games you should be touching. Dangerous game for people starting to tail when you hit 30% on a given day.
Have fun all.Comment -
I like D2D and in the long run if you follow him you will make money. But he always pays to much attention to those that criticize him. A few posters made him leave because they wouldn't let up. Just block them and go on. Remember there are those among us that will never be satisfied unless you pick all winners.Comment -
I wouldn't say fitguy was 100% right on his post. I agree with the Patriots live play that the number of units was not clearly stated so could see how that might be called into question. As for the others as long as they were posted while they were still open then I don't see why they shouldn't be included. If you can tail in time then you can. If you dont see it in time then you dont. Its not like we are paying a subscription fee for these picks. But the criteria of posting the play while the window is open AND with adequate time to tail (which is really a value that will be a matter of opinion from person to person anyways) that virtually eliminates ALL live plays which a huge percentage of cappers include in their record.
As for the tennis bet I dont see how it is relevant that the matches were at 4AM and were posted 20 minutes before closing. If you follow tennis and are into betting then you would know the matches were at 4AM and would plan accordingly (there is also an email notification that lets you know there was a post). If you don't follow tennis and were just looking to tail blindly then you are looking for a free pizza and should be content with what you get.
In my opinon to remove all grey are the thread should follow the same accepted standard that most of the other respected cappers follow here in that the play is good as long as it was clearly posted with bet size before the window closed. Doesn't matter if it is 3 hours before the window closes or 3 minutes. It should also be irrelevant as to whether the match is a prime time or 4AM. There is an email notification feature. If you are not committed enough to wake up at 4AM to put in a tennis bet then so be it and I don't blame you. I will be the first one to say that sports betting is not important enough for me to wake up in the middle of the night to tail a play and then have to pay for it by dragging my ass all day at work. I also appreciate whatever free tips I can get from a guy who in my opinion if one of the better cappers on here and one of the most honest.
Thats just my opinion though. Hope you continue to help us out D2D but if not thanks for all the free picks. My bankroll is a lot healthier when I am watching your threads.Comment -
This is of course based on your years of experience posting at a rate of 55% or better in which thread??????
PS... If you had half a brain and actually did a bit of research then you would know that D2Ds previous thread was 1000s of dollars in the green over a several month period. He has also provided numerous screenshots of longterm gains playing this kind of volume.Last edited by twestacott; 01-11-15, 02:51 PM.Comment -
I agree with you on the tennis picks. All I hthnk is the the bet/unit size, line, and play is posted in adequate time before the game starts. Makes sense that this should be the case. He just didn't do it a few times, fitguy asked for screenshots and clarification, and D2D suddenly got all upset about it, no idea why.Comment -
It's statistically proven if you bet every day you will get destroyedComment -
i actually agree with everything you say, twester. You miss my main point tho'...i'm not saying to keep the hard-to-tail shit out of the thread...i'm saying, just don't count it in with the easy-to-tail shit..."hooray for me and anyone else lucky enough to see it in time to join me" results should be kept as a separate side-tally...cuz they clearly distort the purpose of an official thread record and unecessarily/inevitably breed resentment destructive to the thread
Visit the threads of any of the guys i mention above, and see how they all "police themselves" to avoid even the semblance of using their thread in a self-promoting way. People all realize the "your mileage may vary" concept going in...but it shouldn't be intentionally worsened by including "hope you guyz were lucky enough to get in on _______" shit in with the stuff they certainly would/could have tailed.
The good cappers DO occasionally mention extra-curricular plays on the fly if there still is time on the clock...but always with a disclaimer that it's an optional, off the record thing they're giving an informal heads-up on...they instinctively know that it''s inappropriate to mix the very different "apples" "oranges"...
There's a subtle yet important conceptual difference here...and it meets at the level of
A) segragating the thread's action intelligently into separate
"official" (shit you could have easily tailed...no excuses if you didn't) and
"unofficial" (shit you'd have to been lucky to join me on) tallies
or
B) refusing to see the difference, insist on lumping everything together, and labeling anyone who legiitimately points out how improbable it would be to get such results as being "jealous"
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i've been trying to get D, for the peace and stability of his own thread to make the leap from postion B) to position A)...i hope he makes it and another two-month long "my first day at sbr" type thread results...a thread which put him on the map here...and had only negligible amounts of the "freestyle" stuff, which have increasingly plagued his later efforts
i'm now officially "tapped out" word-wise on this..i've made my point as clearly and as convincingly as possible...i'm now a spectator
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whatever emerges out of this drama (apart from enhancing the number of views here,lol)
i think it's good to get this "what's the fundamental purpose of a picking thread" issue aired out...
good luck to all us degensLast edited by fitguy67; 01-11-15, 04:20 PM.Comment
