Dollars2Donuts NBA, NFL, NHL, MLB and assorted sports thread - Beginning January 2015

[fitguy67]

double post...

hmmm...while we're here...a few "sport" related things to think about...

*competitive walking is exactly like a contest to see who can "whisper the loudest"

*a typical "hash-house harriers" enthusiast is accurately described as a "big drinker with a small running problem"

"the NBA should consider a major rule change next year: give each team 90 points and play the last 3 minutes"

*the two most popular of American team sports actually have very little to do with athletic competition..it is far more helpful to think of them as "frequently interrupted legal proceedings with specialized equipment"...of American sports, only hockey and baseball have any sort of flow and in these two sports it is the players themselves (gasp!) who largely determine the game's outcome...in basketball and football, officiating is now the single largest determinant of each game's "winner"

*if you watch at least three Australian Rugby League (the NRL) matches on a live stream once the season kicks in...you will never want to watch the NFL again...a dozen guys on each team playing a full 80 minutes, without ever "taking a knee", "calling a time out" or any of a dozen other over-manned, over-equipped pussifications of what North-Americans strangely call "Foot"ball...there is more running and tackling in 10 minutes of NRL than you'lll see in an entire three-hour NFL cockup

*the key determinant of winning an American Football game seems to be "milking more bad Pass-Interference calls, at more crucial times than your opponent"

*almost as bad as American Football at pissing you off is "real" Football/Soccer...where the name of the game is similarly "milking more undeserved red cards and penalty kicks than your opponents"...at least the soccer players are getting actual exercise tho'...as only about 15 minutes of a 60' minute footabll game involves, er...well, actually playing ANYthing...75% of the time the clock is running "in between" NOT during play

_____________________

in summary...the next time you think you are watching "sport"...ask yourself: are you watching a truly- competitive fairly-administered contest among atheletes?...or are you being "entertained" with contrived contentious horseshit designed to piss you off in an odd kind of way that makes you want us to see more?...in the vain hope that next time you'll somehow get a referee who finally sees that folding-chair being snuck into the ring...We like to think we're smarter than WWE fans...but they know the purpose of what they're watching...Do we?
_________

that is all

[Dollars2Donuts]

Today's wagers:

285769583-1	1/7/15 2:25pm	$200.00	$208.00	Pending	1/7/15 7:05pm Reduced Hockey 2 Toronto Maple Leafs +104* <small style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;">vs</small> Washington Capitals
285769583-2	1/7/15 2:25pm	$120.00	$100.00	Pending	1/7/15 8:05pm Reduced Hockey 3 Boston Bruins/Pittsburgh Penguins Over 5 -120*
285769583-3	1/7/15 2:25pm	$143.00	$100.00	Pending	1/7/15 8:05pm Reduced Hockey 4 Pittsburgh Penguins -143* <small style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;">vs</small> Boston Bruins
285769583-4	1/7/15 2:25pm	$303.00	$300.00	Pending	1/7/15 9:35pm Reduced Hockey 5 Detroit Red Wings -101* <small style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;">vs</small> Calgary Flames
285769583-5	1/7/15 2:25pm	$180.00	$150.00	Pending	1/7/15 10:35pm Reduced Hockey 8 Anaheim Ducks -120* <small style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;">vs</small> New York Rangers
285769492-1	1/7/15 2:24pm	$156.00	$150.00	Pending	1/7/15 7:05pm Reduced Basketball 703 New Orleans Pelicans -4½ -104* <small style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;">vs</small> Charlotte Hornets
285769492-2	1/7/15 2:24pm	$102.00	$100.00	Pending	1/7/15 7:05pm Reduced Basketball 707 New York Knicks/Washington Wizards Under 187 -102*
285769492-3	1/7/15 2:24pm	$108.00	$100.00	Pending	1/7/15 7:35pm Reduced Basketball 711 Memphis Grizzlies +4½ -108* <small style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;">vs</small> Atlanta Hawks
285769492-4	1/7/15 2:24pm	$157.50	$150.00	Pending	1/7/15 7:35pm Reduced Basketball 711 Memphis Grizzlies/Atlanta Hawks Under 196½ -105*
285769492-5	1/7/15 2:24pm	$162.00	$150.00	Pending	1/7/15 8:05pm Reduced Basketball 713 Utah Jazz/Chicago Bulls Under 195½ -108*
285769492-6	1/7/15 2:24pm	$108.00	$100.00	Pending	1/7/15 8:35pm Reduced Basketball 715 Detroit Pistons +9 -108* <small style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;">vs</small> Dallas Mavericks
285769492-7	1/7/15 2:24pm	$108.00	$100.00	Pending	1/7/15 8:35pm Reduced Basketball 715 Detroit Pistons/Dallas Mavericks Over 211 -108*
285769492-8	1/7/15 2:24pm	$157.50	$150.00	Pending	1/7/15 10:05pm Reduced Basketball 721 Oklahoma City Thunder/Sacramento Kings Under 211½ -105*
285769492-9	1/7/15 2:24pm	$321.00	$300.00	Pending	1/7/15 10:35pm Reduced Basketball 723 Indiana Pacers/Golden State Warriors Over 203 -107*
285769492-10	1/7/15 2:24pm	$153.00	$150.00	Pending	1/7/15 10:35pm Reduced Basketball 725 Los Angeles Lakers/Los Angeles Clippers Under 214½ -102*

[Dollars2Donuts]

And here is a little peek inside my last month:



This is straight from 5dimes and is my last 30 days of wagering.

This shows the total amount wagered ($66,000), the amount won ($69,000) for a new of just under $3000. It also shows the total number of wagers, 377, which works out to around 12.5 per day and is typical of EXACTLY what I have been doing for the last two years. No surprises here.....in the last 28 months I have made well over 6000 wagers.....so, just to be sure, maybe people will start to recognize that volume is not an immediate strike against the bettor.

Once per month I will post this, just so that people can check it versus the records that FitGuy is keeping (if they need to, or like).

BOL today everyone.

[the_mathman]

thank you for your great tips!
Please, ignore the envious.

great D2D!!!!

[ItsMeMrMattE]

you plan on getting back into tennis?

[Jayvegas420]

You really like the pacers/warriors over.
Even if its a huge blowout?

[Dollars2Donuts]

You really like the pacers/warriors over.
Even if its a huge blowout?

Especially if it is a huge blowout. Golden State absolutely blew their minds playing D last night. If thy get up 20 here both teams will be firing away. The Warriors never relax when they are up big...and Indiana can score in this scenario.

I have the game at 115-103.

[Jayvegas420]

Ok.
When I realized this was the lowest total set for GS in their last 20 games I thought something was fishy.
If the Pacers show up tonight & compete I can only see that helping the over.

[Falco88]

Good luck

[Dollars2Donuts]

Tough. Looks like an 0-3 start for a loss of close to $500. Hopefully the rest of the night goes better. This is quite a few consecutive days that have started poorly.....then it feels as though I am clawing my way through the rest of the night trying to get it back.

[fitguy67]

your observation reminds me of this little gem of an article...making the point that most of the time "winning feels just like losing"

http://www.wunderdog.com/how-to-win-at-sports-betting.html

[dvb02]

Tough. Looks like an 0-3 start for a loss of close to $500. Hopefully the rest of the night goes better. This is quite a few consecutive days that have started poorly.....then it feels as though I am clawing my way through the rest of the night trying to get it back.

The night is young D2D. Don't worry about it, just let it happen!

[Dollars2Donuts]

Golden State shooting 14 of 39. Indiana is doing their job so far....just need GSW to pick their shit up.

Crappy loss in OT in Pittsburgh too. Need a break or two here boys.

[gregmav1]

Haha, I'll give this Ind/GS game to ya D2D. Sniped it right on the money.

[ridersonthestorm]

Thank you, Dollars2Donuts, for pointing out the OVER in GSW game. That was huge.

[fitguy67]

previous (d.004/tJ06) ytd: 19-17, +$289

today (d.005/wJ07) changes: 8-6-1, +$511

new ytd: 27-23, +$800

all's well that end's well...bringing us to 8 units flat in just 5 days

today's play-by-play breakdown

mkt	type	play	risk	target	grade	net	289
h	s	tor	200	200	L	-200	89
h	t	bos/pit,o 5	120	100	P		89
h	s	pit	143	100	L	-143	-54
h	s	det	303	300	W	300	246
h	s	ana	180	150	L	-180	66
b	s	nor-4.5	156	150	L	-156	-90
b	s	nyk/was,u 187	102	100	L	-102	-192
b	s	mem+4.5	108	100	L	-108	-300
b	t	mem/atl,u 196.5	157.5	150	W	150	-150
b	t	uta/chi,u 195.5	162	150	W	150	0
b	s	det+9	108	100	W	100	100
b	t	det/dal,o 211	108	100	W	100	200
b	s	okc/sac,u 211.5	157.5	150	W	150	350
b	t	ind/gsw,o 203	321	300	W	300	650
b	t	lal/lac,u 214.5	153	150	W	150	800

[ridersonthestorm]

Go Rangers (sorry Dollars2Donuts, I see you made the opposite decision). If only NYorkers win, they along with GSW/Indiana will save my sorry arse for today.

[ridersonthestorm]

I have the game at 115-103.

Simply awesome, man. A nine-darter.

[Up]

previous (d.004/tJ06) ytd: 19-17, +$289

today (d.005/wJ07) changes: 8-6-1, +$511

new ytd: 27-23, +$800

all's well that end's well...bringing us to 8 units flat in just 5 days

today's play-by-play breakdown

mkt	type	play	risk	target	grade	net	289
h	s	tor	200	200	L	-200	89
h	t	bos/pit,o 5	120	100	P		89
h	s	pit	143	100	L	-143	-54
h	s	det	303	300	W	300	246
h	s	ana	180	150	L	-180	66
b	s	nor-4.5	156	150	L	-156	-90
b	s	nyk/was,u 187	102	100	L	-102	-192
b	s	mem+4.5	108	100	L	-108	-300
b	t	mem/atl,u 196.5	157.5	150	W	150	-150
b	t	uta/chi,u 195.5	162	150	W	150	0
b	s	det+9	108	100	W	100	100
b	t	det/dal,o 211	108	100	W	100	200
b	s	okc/sac,u 211.5	157.5	150	W	150	350
b	t	ind/gsw,o 203	321	300	W	300	650
b	t	lal/lac,u 214.5	153	150	W	150	800

Det/Dal o211 was a loss, not a win.

[Dollars2Donuts]

Det/Dal o211 was a loss, not a win.

Yep, FitGuy, need to correct this. That changes the results for today quite a bit...only + $300 or something.

Tomorrow's early wagers:

285910611-1	1/8/15 5:49am	$154.50	$150.00	Pending	1/8/15 7:35pm Reduced Basketball 501 Charlotte Hornets/Toronto Raptors Over 200½ -103*
285910611-2	1/8/15 5:49am	$153.00	$150.00	Pending	1/8/15 10:35pm Reduced Basketball 505 Miami Heat/Portland Trail Blazers Under 197 -102*
285910611-3	1/8/15 5:49am	$310.00	$200.00	Pending	1/8/15 8:05pm Reduced Hockey 60 St. Louis Blues -155* <small style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;">vs</small> San Jose Sharks
285910611-4	1/8/15 5:49am	$165.00	$150.00	Pending	1/8/15 8:05pm Reduced Hockey 61 Dallas Stars/Nashville Predators Under 5½ -110*
285910611-5	1/8/15 5:49am	$119.00	$100.00	Pending	1/8/15 9:05pm Reduced Hockey 63 Winnipeg Jets -119* <small style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;">vs</small> Arizona Coyotes
285910611-6	1/8/15 5:49am	$140.00	$100.00	Pending	1/8/15 9:05pm Reduced Hockey 63 Winnipeg Jets/Arizona Coyotes Over 5 -140*
285910611-7	1/8/15 5:49am	$202.50	$150.00	Pending	1/8/15 9:05pm Reduced Hockey 66 Colorado Avalanche -135* <small style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;">vs</small> Ottawa Senators
285910611-8	1/8/15 5:49am	$165.00	$150.00	Pending	1/8/15 9:05pm Reduced Hockey 65 Ottawa Senators/Colorado Avalanche Under 5½ -110*
285910611-9	1/8/15 5:49am	$100.00	$150.00	Pending	1/8/15 10:05pm Reduced Hockey 67 Florida Panthers +150* <small style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;">vs</small> Vancouver Canucks

[FreddDS]

I was all over that IND/GSW Over yesterday, and you solidified my confidence in it. Huge win! Thank you, keep it up D2D!

[fitguy67]

thanks for the correction

that's why i post breakdowns like that...not in naked "W-L, U" format...despite the extra work, it's far more conducive to noticing and correcting errors in real time, keeping the thread's record accurate

the reports i blast out at night are always a tentative version, giving everyone a chance to check their accuracy...

__________________

previous (d.004/tJ06) ytd: 19-17, +$289

changes since previous: 7-7-1, +$303

new (d.005/wJ07) ytd: 26-24, +$592

all's well that end's well...bringing us to almost 6 units in just 5 days

d.005's play-by-play breakdown

play	risk	target	grade	$change	289
tor	200	200	L	-200	89
bos/pit,o 5	120	100	P		89
pit	143	100	L	-143	-54
det	303	300	W	300	246
ana	180	150	L	-180	66
nor-4.5	156	150	L	-156	-90
nyk/was,u 187	102	100	L	-102	-192
mem+4.5	108	100	L	-108	-300
mem/atl,u 196.5	157.5	150	W	150	-150
uta/chi,u 195.5	162	150	W	150	0
det+9	108	100	W	100	100
det/dal,o 211	108	100	L	-108	-8
okc/sac,u 211.5	157.5	150	W	150	142
ind/gsw,o 203	321	300	W	300	442
lal/lac,u 214.5	153	150	W	150	592

[Dollars2Donuts]

Ok. Doubling up on the Raptors over.

The line has fallen to 199 at 5dimes. Same bet as before, will post ticket when I can.

At 199 this is a great line.....I have the game at 113-99 Toronto. Toronto has been slumping, they will cle out tonight firing. Charlotte's perimeter defenders are not going to defend well here. I bet we see 13-15 3 pointers from Toronto's O and this is the kind of game that Lou Williams and Terrence Ross will combine for 45 points.

GL tonight everyone.

[gregmav1]

Ok. Doubling up on the Raptors over.

The line has fallen to 199 at 5dimes. Same bet as before, will post ticket when I can.

At 199 this is a great line.....I have the game at 113-99 Toronto. Toronto has been slumping, they will cle out tonight firing. Charlotte's perimeter defenders are not going to defend well here. I bet we see 13-15 3 pointers from Toronto's O and this is the kind of game that Lou Williams and Terrence Ross will combine for 45 points.

GL tonight everyone.

i'm seeing about your same score but more like 113-95. wasn't sure if i wanted to take the over or raps -12.5... took the raps, but i bet if that wins then the over wins, probably should have just taken the over too. oh well

[Seaweed]

Ok. Doubling up on the Raptors over.

The line has fallen to 199 at 5dimes. Same bet as before, will post ticket when I can.

At 199 this is a great line.....I have the game at 113-99 Toronto. Toronto has been slumping, they will cle out tonight firing. Charlotte's perimeter defenders are not going to defend well here. I bet we see 13-15 3 pointers from Toronto's O and this is the kind of game that Lou Williams and Terrence Ross will combine for 45 points.

GL tonight everyone.

Why not take the Raptors TT over then?

[flying lotus]

Good to see you back D2D. You said double up, that mean you are on it for $300?

I see it at 197.5 now

[fitguy67]

tonight's "sweating with the betting" program

mkt	type	play	risk	target	start-time	size	price
b	t	cha/tor,o 200.5	154.5	150	1935	1.5	-103
b	t	cha/tor,o 199	154.5	150	1935	1.5	-103
b	t	mia/por,u 197	153	150	2235	1.5	-102
h	s	stl	310	200	2005	2	-155
h	t	dal/nas,u 5.5	165	150	2005	1.5	-110
h	s	win	119	100	2105	1	-119
h	t	win/arz,o 5	140	100	2105	1	-140
h	s	col	202.5	150	2105	1.5	-135
h	t	ott/col,u 5.5	165	150	2105	1.5	-110
h	s	fla	100	150	2205	1.5	150

note: I've added the second play on the cha/tor, over (which continued to "sweeten the terms" of the proposition for over-backers...i hit it at 197.5, -105 at 19:04, about 90minutes after D posted the "double up" on it...so o199,-105 seems fair for the record)
__________________

D, i'm going to assume that anybody following this thread will be "staying tuned"...so any non-live (ie. all pre-game/pre-period )plays that you post a time-stamped ticket for will get included in this thread record...

as for live plays...you can post them and you (or a designated "someone"--but not me) can track them...but they will not be part of this officical thread record...as they tend to open a contentious "can of worms" as, particularly later in the game, the prices swing so wildly as to make the concept of "tailing" them meaningless

live plays you want to report you hit...are entirely "off the record" that i'm carefully keeping here..if someone wants to try and follow along, they (as you) are "on their own"...go ahead, set up a separate tally of how they fare, but as a side-tally...not to be included in the offidial recor...

the thread record i keep will be for 100% undeniably do-able (non-live) plays posted before the window for that play closes at 5d...pre-game/pre-period/pre-OT/pre-shootout all ok..."in-play" is not...
_____________

i do this to keep you from having to deal with silly squabbles over the do-ability of live plays you post that win (somehow, nobody ever whined about the ones that lost!)

...non-live plays posted shortly after execution and before "window closing" times are crystal-clear useful to the tail-gater...the same can not be said with any degree of reliability for live plays, even the ones read just a few mnutes after someone posted their time-stamped ticket

________________

you are certainly free to post'em.tho' if so inclined..and if you do, i may even follow them...but including them on a season-long thread like this is a major-league headache that just ain't worth it...and i've decided to keep this record 100% accurate/defensible from allegations of "padding"

[gregmav1]

Unless I'm mistaken it seems you're counting LA/LAC twice, you counted it last night and are putting it in today's wagers.

[Dollars2Donuts]

Good to see you back D2D. You said double up, that mean you are on it for $300?

I see it at 197.5 now

currently driving on the highway. Hit it again.

[fitguy67]

Unless I'm mistaken it seems you're counting LA/LAC twice, you counted it last night and are putting it in today's wagers.

nah...u just caught the bottom row of the prev day, that i always copy to the post, then edit to replace with the column headings...should have only been visible for a while, er maybe longer today cuz i got carried away writing under the table 'bout how i wasn't gonna let disputable live plays muck up the record-keeping in this thread

[ridersonthestorm]

All they need is "do the Orlando" and score dozens of points in the last minute.

Nevermind, there is always tomorrow.

[dalogester]

Raptors fuckinf suck

[NYSportsGuy210]

I like your Avalanche bet and think Miami loses but by less than nine points tonight.

[ridersonthestorm]

Raptors fuckinf suck

Toronto Craptors

[madeinchin4]

Toronto Craptors

Hoping for OT