Betterbizness' 2014 CFL Thoughts

[BetterBizness]

So what are the plays this weekend? Don't follow CFL but some of you are doing well and thought I might follow along.

Welcome to the Thread Vince... Should have some picks up soon...

For those in the US, the CFL will be broadcast on the NFL Net for BOTH games this Satruday...

[BetterBizness]

Is this the only CFL thread? If I had to I would probably go chalk with Calgary -3 and the Overs 52.5. Haven't paid enough attention to the CFL to feel to great about it though. Any opinions?

Welcome Itg... There are a few CFL threads, but I tend to to the biggest writeups, probably because I talk so much... Clearly writeups and Results don't always work together though...

Have a look at my logic though when the picks are up, and see if any coincide with with you think... Always best to take a pick you already like, and have it backed up with someone else who thinks the same way I find... Winner or loser... (Hopefully more winners though)

[BetterBizness]

Thursday, July 14, 6 PM MST
Calgary -3 @ Winnipeg O/U 52.5

Calgary 2011 Past Results (Most Recent First)
Cal 34@BC 32 - O52.5
Tor 23@Cal 21 – U52.5

Winnipeg Past Results (Most Recent First)
Tor 16@Win 22 - U52.5
Win 24@Ham 16 - U52.5

The lean from the public since this game opened up at Calgary -2.5, is that Calgary sorted out their offensive woes in the second half (+10 seconds of the first half) last week in BC. I have always believed in Calgary’s offense in that it’s incredibly dangerous when it works and wins me money, which is much of the time, but Is this Winnipeg Defense (And somewhat newfound Offense) something that will give the Stamps fits?

It’s worthwhile to note that Winnipeg was down, (and nearly out) in Game 1 vs Hamilton, but kept things close enough until a bad decision by Ham QB Glenn put the Bombers ahead… So a lucky break so to speak.. In Game 2, the lucky break came from the Schedule makers in giving the Bombers a treat in the ready to Squeeze Lemon-Led pathetic Toronto offense, that had RB Boyd gain just 14 yards… Worst I’ve seen Toronto play since I ever cared about watching the Argos the past couple of seasons.

No Question Winnipeg’s Defensive line are a bunch of rushing and sacking machines, but now with this 2-0 record, adjustments will be made by smart coaches. Calgary’s Coach Hufnagle is as good as they come in fixing problems, and I believe that he ship will be righted this week, and all will be right in the CFL when Calgary continues their offensive assault on the Bombers, who really shouldn’t be 2-0 by any stretch of the imagination. I know this is the type of game that gives teams confidence, and should Winnipeg win, I will clearly think differently, but again, I like the 3 point spread Calgary has, and I think the Winnipeg Defense is “due” for an average game, and much of that reasoning is because I think their Offense will be held at bay by the Calgary Defense, keeping their D on the field longer.

Last years head to head Calgary won both games, (W5@Cal) Cal 23-20, (W19@Win) Cal 35-32.

I would be weary that Winnipeg plays Calgary “tough”, and taking Calgary at -3.5 isn’t the best option if it gets there, but as long as 3 is sitting out there, I would make this a reasonable play, and if you are taking Calgary however, I think that a correlated parlay maybe in order, as I believe if the Stamps offense is in full gear, that the game will find its way over the 52.5, however if you like Winnipeg, and they win, I would say it’s more likely for the game to keep under. This game will just be a modest wager as I don’t see an incredible edge, but enough to say:

2x Cal -3
1x Parlay Cal -3 + Over 52.5

[Bluedragon]

bruv

[jolmscheid]

GL BB!

[BetterBizness]

Friday, July 15, 5:30 MST
Toronto @ Montreal -10.5 O/U 53

Toronto Past Results (Most Recent First)
Tor 16@Win 22 - U53
Tor 23@Cal 21 – U53

Montreal 2011 Past Results (Most Recent First)
Mon 39@Sask 25 - O53
BC 26@Mon 30 - O53

This is a game that has “public” all over it… The perception is seen very clearly in that Montreal opened this game at -9.5, and is now 10.5 in many places. This is exactly what happens when the team that comes off a blowout 2nd Win mustering up nearly 500 yards, meets a team that looks like they could barely move the ball last week, and are playing at home yet.

One thing that stands out though is that I look at teams overall abilities, and similar to Calgary’s offense playing terrible for much of the season, and will hopefully level out playing better, Montreals Offense has had 3 Great Halves of football to start the season, and facing a tough Argo Defense, won’t all of a sudden fall off the planet, but hopefully will level off enough to not win by 10.5.

Another big factor in this perception is the beating that the Argo’s took in last years Eastern Finals, losing 48-17 in Montreal. Overall last year The Als Head to Head was, (W5@Mon) Mon 41-10, (W7@Tor) Tor 37-22, (W18@Tor) Mon 37-30), (W19@Mon) Tor 30-4, (East Finals) Mon 48-17. The last 2 games as I recall late in the season meant very little in the big picture, but clearly concerning is the fact that the last 2 games in Montreal were blowouts. Another huge public perception built into these 10 points.

I have to think that Toronto will rebound from their last performance and stay competitive in this game. Also aside from LOOKING like bums, Toronto actually had the ball to win the game on the last possession last game, while picking up 280 yards of offense. I also think that that even if they aren’t, the Toronto Defense will at least stop Montreal once or twice a half and keep the score to within 30. Another game to bet modest on unless I see any other reasons tomorrow.

2x Toronto +10.5
2x Tor/Mon Under 53

[Sniperpicks]

I had the PEGS last 2 games, was posting in the arena thread here at sbr, i wil ltake them again tonight and +3

[Scully]

Bol this weekend in the CFL BB.

[BetterBizness]

Saturday, July 16, 2 PM MST
Saskatchewan @ Hamilton -2 O/U 51.5

Saskatchewan 2011 Past Results (Most Recent First)
Mon 39@Sask 25 - O51.5
Edm 42@Sask 28 – O51.5

Hamilton 2011 Past Results (Most Recent First)
Ham 10@Edm 28 - U51.5
Win 24@Ham 16 - U51.5

Two 0-2 teams, that really had big projections to start the season meet in Hamiton’s Ivor Wynn Stadium, where typically offenses go to die… Something about this dump of a stadium that typically causes teams to sign an extra punter to the roster because a field position (i.e boring) game is usually in the work and Kickers are the MVPs.

2 very good Offenses have lit up the Riders at home, and thus the question lies, Is Hamilton going to be the third? Hamilton had all sorts of expectations going into the season behind QB Gleen, WR Bruce III, and RB Cobourne, but much adu about nothing so far. With respect, Hamilton got caught in a rain storm in Edmonton last week, and were in complete control at home to Winnipeg the week before. Excuses aside, if Hamilton doesn’t figure things out quick, no matter how good you think you are, the more you lose, the more you think of yourself as a loser. One of these 2 teams is going 0-3 after this game (Thanks captain obvious).

Last year, The Head to Head was Saskatchewan 2-0, (W5@Sask) Sask 37-24, (W13@Ham) Sask 32-25, both playing overs. The game in Hamilton actually saw both offenses combine for over 1000 yards. In fact, the past 2 seasons in Hamilton, saw Ham RB Cobb torch the Rider defense for 166, and 159 yards respectfully. Now they have Former Al’s RB Cobourne. This could be dangerous.

I’m really iffy on the pace of this game, as I don’t think much of Overs played in Hamilton, but I do think that the Rider Defense will continue to get torched, and I think offering the 2 points to Hamilton is very nice of the oddsmakers. This game started on Ham -2.5 so the public is clearly backing the Riders, here, which is really strange considering there is nothing that shows any reason that they “should” turn around here. I anything the line should be right where it started. Nevertheless, clearly I see the “real “adjustment that will be made is in the Hamilton Offense which is clearly underperforming to their potential, rather then the Rider Defense which is plain bad.

I think this game is worthy of a strong play on Hamilton. The pace I’m unconvinced on yet though, but I’ll lean on the under.

4x Hamilton -2
1x Ham/Sask Under 51.5

[BetterBizness]

I had the PEGS last 2 games, was posting in the arena thread here at sbr, i wil ltake them again tonight and +3

Nice to see you here...

So... so you got lucky The bumbers pulled out a couple of flukey games, and you came here to my thread to... Brag?

I'd say BOL, but I'm on the other side, sooo.. (awkward pause like Seeing my ex at a movie theater with her new boyfriend) ...

yaa...hmm...

[Sniperpicks]

it had nothing to do with luck, the luck is when you just wager blindly on something.

week 1 was just noticing how many tight games they played in 2010 and that laying +8.5 was the best play on the game

week 2 was just taking a home team to simply win

tonight i am just playing the team thats been good to me and is at home and is a dog

[BetterBizness]

it had nothing to do with luck, the luck is when you just wager blindly on something.

week 1 was just noticing how many tight games they played in 2010 and that laying +8.5 was the best play on the game

week 2 was just taking a home team to simply win

tonight i am just playing the team thats been good to me and is at home and is a dog

Fair enough... They win tonight, I'll clearly have to reevaluate my thinking of this team.

[BetterBizness]

Saturday, July 16, 5 PM MST
BC @ Edmonton -2.5 O/U 54.5

BC 2011 Past Results (Most Recent First)
Cal 34@BC 32 - O54.5
BC 26@Mon 30 - O54.5

Edmonton 2011 Past Results (Most Recent First)
Ham 10@Edm 28 - U54.5
Edm 42@Sask 28 - O54.5

Ugh… You know my history. Can’t bet against the Esks… Just like my ability to stay away from Skydiving/Bungee Jumping all this time. Just can’t do it…

The line hasn’t moved, and clearly the Linesmakers are telling us they want us to take Edmonton here. AND I’m incredibly tempted to do as they tell me despite the fact that 2 games don’t make a season. But there is a clear turnaround for the franchise, which I figure would happen with all the new changes, but, it’s clearly started sooner than later.

Last years Head to Head was Edmonton 2-1, (W1@Edm) BC 25-10, (W5@Edm) Edm 28-25, (W16@BC) Edm 31-28… The last game in BC was a lot of the similar type of personal, and motivation that could carry over to the game this Saturday. I definitely see a closer type game here with a shootout style of game in fact. Last week QB Lulay absolutely Stunk going 17-39-279, while the week before he was 26-45-366. A lot of the poor numbers are because of all the drops his receiving core couldn’t handle, including all-star WR Simon who dropped the game tying 2 pointer.

I’m leaning against overthinking this game, and going to think that the pace will be high, the drops will be minimal, and the new and improved Esks prevail by a FG.

2x Edm -2.5
2x Edm/BC Over

[xraygord]

Best of luck.

Pinny has the OVER in the CAL WIN game at 52 now.

[BetterBizness]

Best of luck.

Pinny has the OVER in the CAL WIN game at 52 now.

I see steam moving the wrong way in that one... Ah well...

[xraygord]

I'm still on the OVER for half a unit.

[Mike Huntertz]

Windy in the Peg.
I like the over if it drops off.

[BetterBizness]

Wind has no effect on these shitty offenses... Look like a lock under...

[BetterBizness]

TD called back... 3 Missed FG's, 2 blocked... wow... still 18 points...

[BetterBizness]

They just said there were 3 blocked FG's in all 2010, and none in 2009.. 2 in this game... ok... bad timing on the over...

[BetterBizness]

Wow Burris can't hit a ******* swimming pool... not looking good...

[BetterBizness]

Small upside, Backup QB Elliot is in... If Calgary is to come back, it's with the backup in...

[Sniperpicks]

yes , no BUCK at QB has me clock watching

tick-tick-tick-tick-tick

tonight i will be LUCKY to hold on and win this

[BetterBizness]

yes , no BUCK at QB has me clock watching

tick-tick-tick-tick-tick

tonight i will be LUCKY to hold on and win this

Yes .. you will be lucky... go start your own thread now...

[Sniperpicks]

time to get off the PEGS train i think

[BetterBizness]

Wow... Stinky... down 4.4 units... Had small wager to cover 2nd half, and needed Win K Palardy to blow the last kick, which he thankfully did... still... shitty way to start the week...

[EmceeDusty]

Not much you can do that game should have went over by 15 points if morons knew how to kick and coaches knew how to coach.

[BetterBizness]

time to get off the PEGS train i think

Why you get all smart and talk shit because you won a game? Seriously, be an asshole and stay out of the thread...

You want to talk football, talk football...

The entire year depends on Pierce... Elliot is not good enough yet... he's had like 2 starts, and did nothing with them last year... Defense will only get you so far if you're on the field for 40 minutes... To his credit he made a few good passes down the stretch...

Doesn't matter what you think anyhow, that game wasn't won (Covered) by winnipeg... it was blown by Calgary .. I still don't think much of the Winnipeg Offense, but I question Calgary's... Next week @ home to Edmonton I will question anything bigger then 3... I believe it will be closer to 6-6.5 anyhow.... I think This Shitty offense of Calgary may be ripe to bet against...

I don't hate Winnipeg playing good Defense at all, in fact I cheer for the city to do well, they've had so little over the years... They just haven't produced enough in 3 games to tell me they are worth anything... Although Unders sure play nicely for that team thus far... Next week they are in Toronto, and that could be a 7-6 final...

[Sniperpicks]

the WIND was crippling the passes and kicks , did you check the weather before the game ?

[BetterBizness]

Not much you can do that game should have went over by 15 points if morons knew how to kick and coaches knew how to coach.

well 6 of them were erased due to the 2 of 5 blocked FG's in the past 3 years... oh and the TD taken back because of an iffy hold...

[BetterBizness]

the WIND was crippling the passes and kicks , did you check the weather before the game ?

The Eskimos scored 28 points in a fn storm? Clearly you've never played football if you think 15mph is "Crippling"

Of course wind plays a factor... But is it going to stop people from scoring?? Did you bet the Under when New England was in Chicago in the middle of a snow storm? They only scored 50 that day no?

So much for weather....

Fk man quit trying to think you're better than everyone... Burris missed Rambo on a 10 yard flip pass... 24km (15 mph) winds isn't blocking kicks and taking holding calls... RB Reynolds had 40 yards? That's wind??

[Sniperpicks]

the ball was wobbling all over the place, you got Stevie Wonder vision or what? it went UNDER due to BUCK being hurt and Calgary offense not being effective vs the Pegs D

I did a weather check and saw the wind and left the total alone

if BUCK stays and plays then Calgary loses by double digits and its still an UNDER

you lost , i won, it happens, the reverse will occur some time. quit crying

[BetterBizness]

the ball was wobbling all over the place, you got Stevie Wonder vision or what? it went UNDER due to BUCK being hurt and Calgary offense not being effective vs the Pegs D

I did a weather check and saw the wind and left the total alone

if BUCK stays and plays then Calgary loses by double digits and its still an UNDER

you lost , i won, it happens, the reverse will occur some time. quit crying

I"m not crying so much as you are gloating asshole... like i said, keep it to football or fuk off...

Oh boy... 9 of 16, and you think Pierce was the difference.... they were up 11-7 at half... anyhow, I made on the second half, the last thing I'm doing is crying... That over was doomed from the 1-0 first quarter...

[Sniperpicks]

yer aweful sensative if you think i am gloating , i got lucky tonight , Pegs stink without Buck, even WITH him at qb the O the basic, vanilla, etc. the Pegs +3.5 was the better play , if BUCK stayed at QB it would of been a easy win by 10+

I wont play them next week, not even if he returns

[BetterBizness]

Friday, July 15, 5:30 MST
Toronto @ Montreal -10.5 O/U 53

Toronto Past Results (Most Recent First)
Tor 16@Win 22 - U53
Tor 23@Cal 21 – U53

Montreal 2011 Past Results (Most Recent First)
Mon 39@Sask 25 - O53
BC 26@Mon 30 - O53

This is a game that has “public” all over it… The perception is seen very clearly in that Montreal opened this game at -9.5, and is now 10.5 in many places. This is exactly what happens when the team that comes off a blowout 2nd Win mustering up nearly 500 yards, meets a team that looks like they could barely move the ball last week, and are playing at home yet.

One thing that stands out though is that I look at teams overall abilities, and similar to Calgary’s offense playing terrible for much of the season, and will hopefully level out playing better, Montreals Offense has had 3 Great Halves of football to start the season, and facing a tough Argo Defense, won’t all of a sudden fall off the planet, but hopefully will level off enough to not win by 10.5.

Another big factor in this perception is the beating that the Argo’s took in last years Eastern Finals, losing 48-17 in Montreal. Overall last year The Als Head to Head was, (W5@Mon) Mon 41-10, (W7@Tor) Tor 37-22, (W18@Tor) Mon 37-30), (W19@Mon) Tor 30-4, (East Finals) Mon 48-17. The last 2 games as I recall late in the season meant very little in the big picture, but clearly concerning is the fact that the last 2 games in Montreal were blowouts. Another huge public perception built into these 10 points.

I have to think that Toronto will rebound from their last performance and stay competitive in this game. Also aside from LOOKING like bums, Toronto actually had the ball to win the game on the last possession last game, while picking up 280 yards of offense. I also think that that even if they aren’t, the Toronto Defense will at least stop Montreal once or twice a half and keep the score to within 30. Another game to bet modest on unless I see any other reasons tomorrow.

2x Toronto +10.5
2x Tor/Mon Under 53

Almost forgot to Add QB Cavillo is shooting for the all time TD record tonight, which inevitably he'll get... hoping the earlier the better to get all the hoopla out of the way quick...

Helping out Toronto's cause at least slightly is Mon WR Richardson on the Injured list...