Betterbizness' 2014 CFL Thoughts

[SpreadSniper]

just curious WHAT it was about the Ticats that had you feeling that confident to make such a large play on a winless team? I mean I know the Riders haven't been too shit hot, but to unload on a team who had only scored 26 points through its first 2 games, you musta had a good reason for the confidence.

Good job on the play!

[BetterBizness]

just curious WHAT it was about the Ticats that had you feeling that confident to make such a large play on a winless team? I mean I know the Riders haven't been too shit hot, but to unload on a team who had only scored 26 points through its first 2 games, you musta had a good reason for the confidence.

Good job on the play!

My opinion was that the offense was waiting for a shitty Defense team to go rank on... I believed that in the first 2 games they played the best/2nd best Defense in the league in Winnipeg ... and the second game they played a top half Defense in Edmonton (We see now), but on top of that it was a road game in a storm... I felt good at this play in not even having to give 3 points on top of it all.

In my writeup I said Ivor Wynn is where offenses go to die, and sure enough, the right offense absolutely played horrendous, while again not stopping anyone... worked out this time...

Then again to remind myself at how my intuition sucks, I also thought BC would score more than 16 points and lost big... Wow was that a donkeycall... 3 games in I'm still not sure of Edmonton... They look incredible, but knowing what we know now 3 games later, they beat a Shitty Rider team (Allbeit in Regina), and played a really good game in the rain.. But I also personally cap those weather games more or less with a lower weight, similar to horses which I used to bet... toss out the race in the rain because it's not a true indicator as to a teams ability, or the opponents lack of ability in shitty conditions... And now we see BC is pretty much terrible, with a sketchy Defense, and a bad offense with bad recievers, and no running game as per their sketchy offense line.

Not that you asked, but so far, I see Montreal the clear cream of the crop with three dominating wins (BC came close due to Montreal's one bad half of football in 3 games) ... and really, I think Edmonton and Winnipeg are all a very distant second-third in no particular order. Maybe edge to Winnipeg with their D...Maybe Edge to Edmonton with their O? Calgary fourth on pure potential and still being 2-1.

I would then say in my power ratings Hamilton, Toronto, BC, and Saskatchewan would in order be my own power rankings....

[SpreadSniper]

thank you for the reply and must say, I appreciate and agree with most of what is said.... i like picking others brains on topics as such... its like looking at the "Where's Waldo" book for hours, cant fukkin find Waldo, then some guy walks by and sees him right away.

[BetterBizness]

thank you for the reply and must say, I appreciate and agree with most of what is said.... i like picking others brains on topics as such... its like looking at the "Where's Waldo" book for hours, cant fukkin find Waldo, then some guy walks by and sees him right away.

I totally agree Sniper... This is the most CFL talk in who knows when in this forum... at least a dozen threads are created during the weekend about this stuff... Hel I even have over 2,000 views so far (Mild brag)... for a League that has just 8 teams! Fact is many of the people talking here and asking questions, and putting things out really know what's going on, and that makes everyone see things a little clearer... at least through the first 3 weeks...

[vec]

I totally agree Sniper... This is the most CFL talk in who knows when in this forum... at least a dozen threads are created during the weekend about this stuff... Hel I even have over 2,000 views so far (Mild brag)... for a League that has just 8 teams! Fact is many of the people talking here and asking questions, and putting things out really know what's going on, and that makes everyone see things a little clearer... at least through the first 3 weeks...

This CFL talk is what lead me to this forum. Keep up the great analysis!

[BetterBizness]

This CFL talk is what lead me to this forum. Keep up the great analysis!

Thanks Vec... Nice to have you around... Welcome!

[SpreadSniper]

Hey guy.... just wondering about your opinions on the HAM @ BC game this week.... I like BC, but the hurting HAM laid on SSK has me wondering.... opened BC -3, to -3.5 at some shops... I think it holds there unless something is amiss on the injury front.

What ya think?

[BetterBizness]

I'm still have do some research on this game, but the one thing that sticks out is last years game that BC was Way in control, but Printers had like 3 fumbles and Hamilton came out of no where to win... Similar teams since late in the season, but Hamilton seems to have got better, and BC worse... My early gut says that it's hard to Bet BC right now until they show us something, and covering 3 sounds absurd at this point... but clearly I'll have to read into it a little more...

[xraygord]

I heard at work today that Pierce will be starting for the Bombers this week. I haven't heard anything official though.

[SpreadSniper]

I heard at work today that Pierce will be starting for the Bombers this week. I haven't heard anything official though.

He'll play... he's a pussy if he doesn't... bruised thigh, pfffft.

[memo99]

hey Bizz,just found your thread how bout those 3-0 Eskies

[BetterBizness]

hey Bizz,just found your thread how bout those 3-0 Eskies

Hey Memo.. Nice to see you over here...

How bout em eh? Hard to imagine... Reed is a motivating coach, along with some (finally) good calls from Crandall as the O-Coordinator... I was sick of watching Swing Pass left, Swing Pass Right for the past 5 years...

[BetterBizness]

Should have the plays up in the next couple of hours... Early Lean is defintely Hamilton though for me...

[BetterBizness]

Week 4

Friday, July 22, 8 PM MST
Hamilton @ BC -3 O/U 49.5

Hamilton 2011 Past Results (Most Recent First)
Ham 10@Edm 28 – U49.5
Win 24@Ham 16 – U49.5
Sask 3@Ham 33 – U49.5

BC 2011 Past Results (Most Recent First)
Cal 34@BC 32 – O49.5
BC 26@Mon 30 – O49.5
BC 17@Edm 33 – O49.5

Head to Head
2010 Tied 1-1 – (W12@BC) Ham 35-31, (W19@Ham) BC 23-21

Hamilton, coming off their first win of the season without their Star WR Bruce III, goes into BC, a place where they literally lost 11 of 12 from 1997-2008. But the franchise wasn’t exactly much to talk about either over that time period. Last year, Hamilton was actually losing by almost 2 TD’s after 3 Q’s, when 5 BC turnovers in the forth gifted Hamilton the win.

My biggest problem with the idea that I’ve read many times this week, is that BC is “Desperate”… I’m really not sure what that has to do with anything if they are just plain “BAD”… After all sorts of hype with QB Lulay being the Franchise this year, they have got off to an AWFUL start, and to top it off, the Receiving core is atrocious. I’ve watched BC every game this year, and by no means does this make me a BC Lion Expert, but its pretty obvious that without catching the ball, it’s hard to get first downs. (TSN Needs to sign me up with lines like this.) …

To top off the disarray in Vancouver, the Offensive line is SO beat up, that OL Kelly Bates, who retired this off-season to help coach, was just resigned to be a player-coach while their O Line recuperates.

On the other end of things, Hamilton was my biggest play of the year last week, lets not overhype the fact that they had 361 yards, and nearly 9 more minutes in Time of possession over the downrolling Riders… But basically, it’s what I expected out of Hamilton from the beginning. The funny thing is we still haven’t seen anything close to the best out of Hamilton. RB Cobourne still hasn’t had 100 yard game, and WR Bruce III was out last week during the explosive win. Look out!

I recognize that BC is “Due” to play well… someday… I’m just not sure if that day will come tonight, and as 3 point Favorites yet? I just see this as a gift against a surging Hamilton team. I would say that the total is starting to reflect the pace of the Hamilton Defense, but if their offense gets going, I really believe that a remake of last years 35-31 type game could pace itself. Although I have a hard time believing that BC will muster up 31. 17 seems about right.

5x Hamilton +3
2x Ham ML +160
1x Ham/BC Over 49.5

[memo99]

this game should be decided by 3 points or less just not sure which way Ham is the better team but BC is winless and at home good luck BB

[BetterBizness]

Wow... There is some Clear Public backing on BC after it just moved to -3.5 ... I believe in LIne movement, but I can't buy into it...

[Bluedragon]

this game should be decided by 3 points or less just not sure which way Ham is the better team but BC is winless and at home good luck BB

PROLINE tie lol

[Dharmonize]

On Hamilton too, gl BB and everyone!

[BetterBizness]

5x ham 2h ml +165

[tension]

Wow why won't BC just lie down and die already! Lulay throw a pick six plz!

[tension]

LOL LULAY you suck and thank you very much!

[DennisGreen]

5x ham 2h ml +165

Lucky mother fcuker Looked like you were screwed once Hamilton missed that FG.

[AribaAriba]

horrible coaching by that bulldog bwano, why keep throwing the ball while u have a descent running game and time on the clock? u can win the game on a fieldgoal ASzSHOLE!

[BetterBizness]

Lucky mother fcuker Looked like you were screwed once Hamilton missed that FG.

Somehow I just knew Medlock would blow it when he lined up... But common sense kept telling me he's 9 for 9, and this is a 28 yarder...

I said in my Preview Colbourne would step up eventually... I would say this qualified...

[GoingGrey]

Hey Biz, thanks for the picks last night...Just wondering what are your thoughts on the Toronto team total of under 24.5 for tonight?

[Dharmonize]

Awesome hit with Hamilton and also the over! Great job, BB!

[SpreadSniper]

I'm still have do some research on this game, but the one thing that sticks out is last years game that BC was Way in control, but Printers had like 3 fumbles and Hamilton came out of no where to win... Similar teams since late in the season, but Hamilton seems to have got better, and BC worse... My early gut says that it's hard to Bet BC right now until they show us something, and covering 3 sounds absurd at this point... but clearly I'll have to read into it a little more...

good call bro.... saved me some bucks here...

[BetterBizness]

good call bro.... saved me some bucks here...

Every bet not made on the wrong side, is like winning as far as I"m concerned...

Should have the Winnipeg/Toronto Game up shortly...

[DennisGreen]

Somehow I just knew Medlock would blow it when he lined up... But common sense kept telling me he's 9 for 9, and this is a 28 yarder...

I said in my Preview Colbourne would step up eventually... I would say this qualified...

Yup you definitely deserved to win your bet. Cant believe he missed that close.

[BetterBizness]

Yup you definitely deserved to win your bet. Cant believe he missed that close.

In fairness... I thought I deserved to PUSH, being the ML was Hamilton by 3... As it turns out, I will gladly accept the Christmas gift from my man A.C going house on that last run...to slightly make up for the last 4000 sheity things that have cost my bets money over the past year being on the wrong side...

[BetterBizness]

Saturday, July 23, 2 PM MST
Winnipeg @ Toronto -3.5 O/U 45.5

Winnipeg Past Results (Most Recent First)
Win 24@Ham 16 - U45.5
Tor 16@Win 22 – U45.5
Cal 21@Win 20 – U45.5

Toronto Past Results (Most Recent First)
Tor 16@Win 22 – U45.5
Tor 23@Cal 21 – U45.5
Tor 17@Mon 40 – O45.5

Head to Head
2011 – Win 1-0 (W1@Win) Win 22-16
2010 – Toronto 3-0, (W2@Win) Tor 36-34, (W12@Tor) Tor 17-13, (W17@Win) Tor 27-8

Wow… Since I started this preview last night, the line has JUMPED a half point for the Argos, OFF the key number of 3, to 3.5, and the only question I have is.. Are they out of their fn minds?!?!

It’s taken me a while to respect this Winnipeg Defense, but I did some of my own research for Statistics because finding a good site with CFL Statistics is like finding Gold under a park bench… But I did some hand calculations on Team Defense, Total yards given up, and I got Winnipeg coming in at allowing 311 yards avg/game - Ranks 1st,( 319, 335, and 278 yards in their first 3 games) 14 yards ahead of the 2nd place Stampeders at 324, Montreal 329, Hamilton 356, Toronto 381, Edmonton 380, Sask 396, and BC 409.

With all that said, Winnipeg STILL ranks 70 yards per game ahead of Toronto, who is currently ranked 5th. And Toronto’s offense is well, still quite offensive… getting worse by the week if that’s even possible after losing RB Boyd, who even for the first 2 games was ineffective. Toronto’s ONLY chance to survive this season is with a running game to open up the play action, to buy time to throw the ball.. as It stands, Winnipeg’s Defense will look to continue to abide by the "If life gives you Lemons - make Lemon-ade"... Teeing off on QB Lemon who in their week 2 matchup, had SEVEN… let me say it again… SEVEN! Sacks (13 in three games)… and forced FIVE turnovers…

TSN (Toronto Sports Network ) seems to pump these Argo’s up, A LOT, as they are a VERY likeable team to broadcast… I bought into them last year before anyone knew they were any good… Now that they basically laid three eggs, despite getting a win, and I’m totally switching sides. I can’t back this team for any good reason at this point, similar to my feeling on the Lions last night. (Subject to change of course)

The big thing about Winnipeg is that they are getting things together offensively… but slowly… when you think about it though, who cares how slow it moves, as long as they move the sticks every so often to give the Defense a rest, because that’s what’s carrying them. They DARE the opposing offense to go deep, to run up the middle… anyhow… Pretty obvious that Toronto has it’s work cut out for them

The “obvious” choice is to think this game is going under 45.5, but I will make a small play that Winnipeg may in fact get some breaks offensively and open this game up a little bit. Mostly I just love the cushion on this play on the spread.. It’s 91 degrees F (33 C), but feels like 106 F(41C) with humidity, or way high into the 30+ C…I still say advantage Defense, but the number is just so small, that a couple of special teams breaks could put this number into the 40’s without THAT much effort…Just a small play nevertheless…

4x Winnipeg +3.5
1x Winnipeg ML +145
0.5x Win/Tor Over 45.5

[Sniperpicks]

who is at QB for the Pegs? If its BUCK and Pegs bring the D then this is a gold mine

[BetterBizness]

Saturday, July 23, 5 PM MST
Edmonton @ Calgary -3 O/U 55

Edmonton 2011 Past Results (Most Recent First)
Ham 10@Edm 28 - U55
Edm 42@Sask 28 - O55
BC 17@Edm 33 – U55

Calgary 2011 Past Results (Most Recent First)
Cal 34@BC 32 - O55
Tor 23@Cal 21 – U55
Cal 21@Win 20 – U55

Head to Head
2010 – Calgary 3-0, (W7@Cal) Cal 56-15, (W10@Cal) Cal 52-5, (W11@Edm) Cal 36-20

Look, it’s no secret I’m an Eskimo Fan, and I’ve taken a very “cautious” stance on letting my personal bias get in the way of my predictions this year. You would think that at 3-0 I would be JUMPING on that 3 points that Calgary is giving up today, but something just seems a little too fishy. Simply put, the Esks are due to fall on their ass at some point soon, and if you remember last year at all, Calgary outscored them 144-40… Personal changes, GM changes, Coaching Changes are all for the better, but you just can’t say that a team just a short year ago, who completely treated the Eskimos games like a High School practice, aren’t going to come out with at least a “little” confidence. It’s in that that I’m going to lay off betting the Esks here, and if I was betting against them, this would be a nice spot to do it.

Calgary’s offense is just starting to get revved up, and just as a fan of the CFL, and of the Esks, I believe the game will be very competitive, and of course I hope they get the win, but I think it’s a REALLY tough spot to get it. The fact that the public is ALL OVER the 4 points, and have thus far moved it to three also says that that 3-0 record is speaking volumes to the tough 2-1 record that Stamps have, and not very “pretty” wins I might add…Again, it’s a perfect spot for a let down, and Calgary is the perfect price on the perfect number.

On the other side, I believe that the pace will be high, and the ball will be tossed… I see both teams in the 30’s. Reasonable play on the over 55.
Thus just one total play

3x Edm/Cal O55

[BetterBizness]

who is at QB for the Pegs? If its BUCK and Pegs bring the D then this is a gold mine

Pierce gets the start... I'm convinced though that Even if Backup Elliot comes in, he has had enough practices now as the #2 to get the job done, particularly with RB Reid moving the ball...

[BetterBizness]

For our US friends, the Cal/Edm game is on the NFL Net, and Tomorrow, the Sask/Montreal game is there as well...