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Max, I'm on Pittsburgh -6 decent, but not heavy. Just wondering why you think they are the play? I don't see the Jets/Sanchez getting more than 10 points in the game ...
I also saw Jaworski liked them straight. I find that very interesting (and to be honest, weird). Betting on Sanchez right now is like betting against Brady. It elicits one question: "Really?"Comment -
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great job bud
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You are fairly well. Keep it up MaxLockComment -
Jets-Steelers Analysis
It's pretty evident that the Jets have been playing awful the last two weeks and some may even argue that they haven't played well all season, squeaking out last minute victories over inferior opponents. Its been more evident that Sanchez has struggled immensely the last couple weeks. Earlier in the season Sanchez was limiting his turnovers, the running game was performing at a high level, and the receivers were making clutch receptions. Now all seems to be gone. Well at least for the past 2/3 games. First of you'd have to eliminate the Monday night game. For purposes of handicapping I don't believe any team is as good as they looked in one game nor are they a bad as they looked in one game. So here's the recap in last week's game vs the Dolphins. The defense actually played very well, or maybe it was just Chad Hennes inneptness. Henne went 5 for 18, 55 yards, and 5 sacks. The problem with the Jets defense throughout the year is they have a difficult time bringing pressure to the QB, without blitzing. A good QB with a good offensive line will torch the Jets, even with NY's two top corners. No question that is why Brady looked so great Monday Night. He had ample time in the pocket, because of great protection. So the question is will Big Ben have similiar success? I'd say no with confidence. Looking at the Steelers past 3 games, they've struggled offensviley themselves. If it wasn't for the defense bailing them out they could have lost 2 out of the last 3, possibly even all three. Starting with last week vs Cincy: Big Ben played fairly well as he was 21-33 for 258, but he was sacked 4 times and had 0 Tds. More importantly the offense only scored 6 points against an average Cincy defense. Now two weeks ago vs the Ravens. Roethlisburger went 22-38 for 253, I TD, 1 INT, 3 sacks. More importantly the offense only scored 10 points aginst an average/good Ravens defense. I think anyone who has watched plenty of Ravens games this year sees that the Ravens D are not who they use to be. Now three weeks ago vs the Bills. Big Ben goes 20-33 for 246, 0 TDs, 5 sacks, and once again 16 points in regulation, plus the three making them winners in OT.
So here's the question: Is Roethlisburger struggling? No, hes doing quite fine. It's the Steelers offensive line. They are a huge liability. Since the Pitt-Cincy game Monday Night several weeks ago the Steelers have taken a couple huge hits on the offensive line. They just can't seem to pass protect well enough coupled with the fact that Roethlisburger likes to hold on to the ball and extend plays has led to 13 sacks in the past 3 games against teams who's defense is average. Now the bigger question. Well what about Sanchez and his struggles? I can't sit here and say he'll play well vs Pitt. But here's what can possibly help the Jets. The Pittsburgh pass defense ranks 23rd in the league. It's just been reported that safety Troy Palumalu is unlikely to play this game. That would be a huge diservice to the Pitt D, as they have struggled over the years whenever he's out of the lineup. TE Heath Miller will probably also miss this game because of concussion related symptoms. On defense the Jets match up well vs the Steelers. They continue to be very good against the run, ranking 3rd. While the Jets corners of Revis and Cromartie will cover Ward and Wallace.
I also like the fact that Jet WR Santonio Holmes is going to play his former team. You can expect 110% from him. I see this being a tight game with the Jets even possibly winning this game straight up. There's a huge public overraction about the Jets horrendous play the last couple weeks. But they aren't as bad as they've played. They still have one of the better running combos, one of the best special team return games, and one of the better defenses. As i pointed out early, I think Pittsburgh offensive line will be the ones that fail the Steelers. Take the JETS +6 (get it at 6 before the line drops)Comment -
MAXLock NFL week 15 Slate:
odds of sportsbook.com as of 10:00 am unless otherwise noted:
Thursday:
1) San Diego -8.5 over San Fran-Win (documented in thread)
Sunday:
2) NY Jets +6 over Pittsburgh
3) Cleveland +1.5 over Cincinatti
4) NY Giants -3 over Philadelphia
5) Arizona +3 over Carolina (if you have this line at +2.5 buy the .5 to make it 3)
6) St. Louis +1 over Kansas City
7) *I do have a play on SNF- Packers-Patriots. (Don't assume its the Pats)Comment -
Solid card. I had SD as one of my legs in a few cross sports parlays. Hit them all. I also like Clev and NYJ this week. What do you think of NO over Balt? Seems like easy pickings at NO +1, no? Balt off of a short week OT game and NO clicking on all cylinders offensively scoring 30+ in their last 5 games. Thoughts?
Good luck with your picks this week.Comment -
New York Giants
Spread -3 (EVEN)
$200
Arizona Cardinals
Spread +3 (-130)
$260
My book hasn't put the Ram's-Cheifs line up yet.Comment -
I really cant recommend betting either side. Baltimore is one of those teams that plays much better at home. This year they are 5-1 @ home with the only lose coming at the hands of the Steelers. Baltimore on average gives up 16.8 points per game at home. While, Drew Brees and the Saints offense should at least put up 20 points, its not really the Saints offense I'm worried about. What concerns me is the Saints defense on the road in a game where the temperature will be in the 30s. The last two times the Saints have been on the road they gave up 30 points to the Bengals and 27 to the Cowboys. New Orleans, although they have been winning on the road, does not play up to their abilities the way they do at home, while Baltimore plays much better at home. Baltimore should have success moving the ball offensively if they find a good balance between Rice and the passing game. Baltimore will be up for the challenge knowing they are facing the cream of the crop from the NFC. New Orleans may be looking ahead to next week as they are set to face Atlanta in a key divisional game next Monday. Although that wont matter if New Orleans does not win this one here, so in the Saints defense they need to win this game to keep pace with Atlanta for the division. In my opinion I can't bet this game, it really could go either way. If I had to take a side I would side with the Ravens 27-24. BOL in whatever you choose.Comment -
Max your write ups are amazing they have so much insight and research in them.Comment -
Congrats on the recent picks Maxlock. What are your thoughts about the Redskins / Cowboys game? The Skins look to be in shambles as Shanahan is benching McNabb for Grossman. The team is reportedly furious with the decision and I see a team that has no motivation to play. In fact, I see that they have a motivation to NOT play hard to get rid of their coach. On the other side, I see a Dallas team that is coming around and playing decent. Kitna, while not exceptional, seems to becoming more efficient as he's played. The players seem to be behind Coach Garret, and there's always a motivation from Jerry Jones to finish the season respectfully. This being said... how do you think they match up? I'm thinking of taking Dallas -7.Comment -
On paper the Cowboys should do very good against Washington this week. I think you'll see a heavy dose of running from Tashard Choice and Felix Jones. Dallas has one of the strongest combinations in the running game. I would not be surprised to see similar results to what the Giants did to the Redskins a couple of weeks ago. Washington ranks 28th against the run and 29th against the pass. Washington with Rex Grossman under center will rely on the Ryan Torrain and their running game. Dallas is average in that department ranking 17th.
As far as the reports out there that the team is divided over the Mccnab benching, I do believe that this will have a negative impact on Washingtons motivation. Shanahan just benched a respected veteran QB who has battled for the team throughout the season. Mcnabb is hardly the only problem for this team. Coupled with that fact that I don't think you can't trust Grossman. Dallas may seek out some revenge from earlier in the season when the Redskins beat them. All in all these are two teams finishing off the season in complete different directions. Although this is not one of my plays for this week, I can't see why you wouldn't take Dallas -7 in this game.Comment -
gahhh... i'm struggling with this Eagles / Giants pick. Can't wait to hear your write up. :-)Comment -
I won't have a write up for this game. I usually do 1 write up per week for my games. I did that with the Jets game, and also did two smaller write ups on games that I didn't have a play on but nonetheless..As for the Giants -3 pick, I don't have any doubt about them beating phily this week. It took me a while to get all the facts and such on this game. Bank it.Comment -
Thanks for your opinions.. I appreciate it.
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Wonderful writeups max. Very very detailed.Comment -
Max, your thoughts on Seattle +7 in a must win situation at home. Atlanta is such a square and obvious play. 85% currently on Atl. and no line movement whatsoever of the opening number of 6. Doesn't add up, can you say trap?
Absolutely LOVE your Jets pick and think Cleveland with McCoy coming back and Mangini fighting for his job have much to play for, whereas Cincy is just playing out the string.Comment -
Max...sportsbook.com has StLouis/KC as a pick em. I'm guessing you'd go with StLouis?Comment -
Thanks max!Comment -
This game does have trap written all over it. From what I saw this line opened up at -6, but many books now have Seattle +7 -120. But for reliable line movement you'd have to look at Pinnacle's odds and they still have it 6. Pinnacle is one of the sharpest books out there who take in the most amount of $ per game. Last I saw 81% of the money was on Atlanta. I'd be weary betting a team thats getting the majority of the money with no line movement. Seattle is a much different team at home, the same could be said for Atlanta playing on the road. So for purposes of handicapping I'll focus on Seattles home performances and Atlantas road performances. Seattle at home: avgerages 23.6 points per game on offense and allow 22.1 points against. Now I think its important to take into account Charlie Whitehurst starting one of those games against the Giants where the got beat 41-7. So if you take away that game the stats shift dramatically. Seattle on offense @ home scores 26.8... Seattle on defense @ home allows 18.4. Very respecatable differential in numbers. Bottom line is Seattle is a complete different team at home. Now onto Atlantas performance away. Points scored on average: 23.7. Points allowed on average: 18.7. So now all these numbers have to be given their proper weight in terms how this will relate to this game. (I'm not giving these totals to bet the over/under) The bottom line is Seattle is a different team at home, while Atlanta has a slight decline in road performance.
Seattle will have WR Mike Williams and WR Ben Obomanu back for this game, both did not play last week. Seattle should have success through the air as Atlanta ranks 24th against the pass. The challenge for Seattle will be stopping one of the most balanced offenses in the league, with Matt Ryan, Tony Gonzalez Roddy White, and Michael Turner Atlanta has a very good offensive line that allows them Matt Ryan time in the pocket. They rank 4th in the league in terms of sacks allowed. (#1 being sacked the least amount)
All in all, this is Atlantas third straight road game. I dont think they will be focused for the "crappy" Seahawks. Not only does this look like a trap game in terms of no line movement at Pinnacle, staying at 6 throughout the week with over 80% of the money on Atl. But also the Falcons may also be in looking ahead to their key divional game at home on MNF vs the Saints. Seattle is currently in a must win situation as they continue battling for the division.
Myself, I won't have a play on this game, but i would lean with Seattle. If you got this game at +7, i like your chances even more. BOl in whatever you choose.Comment -
Thanks for the very detailed and in depth response Max, much appreciated.
For what it's worth I went pretty small on Seattle, just threw them in on a little 3 teamer at +6. Like the Jets and Clev. plays much better.
We're definitely on the same thought process as far as it being a trap game, look ahead and lack of line movement. At the end of the day though, agree with you that there are better plays on the card then Seattle +6.
Edit: The Rams just went to -3 at Pinnacle and the Jet line has dipped to +5.5.Comment -
are you fukking crazy??
you're counting on Matt Flynn, a guy who posted a 60 qb rating vs the lions, to go into New England and play a semi close game with the Patriots???
you realize the packers have absolutely ZERO running game right now??
even if the Packers defense plays the game of their life, they will still lose this one like 20-3 or 17-0. Flynn is awful and the Packers offense is the worst in the league when rodgers is not playingComment -
Glad to see you on my boys Max. I think the Pack can keep this game close. I have a funny feeling Rodgers is going to play in this one, or is McCarthy just trying to get Pats coach to scheme for both Qb's after his "The door is open for Rodgers to play in this game" quote yesterday.
GB's offensive line was horrid last week and dare I say they were looking ahead to this game? Seems hard to believe with so much at stake for the Pack, but it's Detroit, third string Qb, etc... It happens some times and it bit them in the ass last week.
My concerns for this game with regards to the Pack is not on offense regardless of who starts, I think they can make some hay on the Pats corners in this one; see them going deep early and often with success, but rather the defense specifically up front. GB has some key injuries up front with starting end Cullen Jenkins and OLB Zombo out for this one. I see the Pats running away from Matthews and right at the backup LOLB. Also, Matthews has been slowed by a shin injury for the last month and it's affected his sack numbers. GB's back end seconday is very good but if Brady has all day.... Anyway, my .02, hope this play hits especially the $$ line.
Edit: Looks like Rodgers isn't playing, oh well...Last edited by Stevedore; 12-18-10, 02:20 PM.Comment
