SSK's NFL Thread

[Full Time Hobo]

Well that's mainly because my bankroll is bigger now

Congrats.

That endnote on the bottom of your posted picks...

Is that similar to last week... your not as confident in these picks so if you dont end up positive you wont be surprised? .... and place a confident bet in one of the night games to make up for it?

[dugdogg]

your analysts....hilarious... this is such a great thread

[dwang0725]

Entertainment at its finest!

[ssk13809]

Congrats.

That endnote on the bottom of your posted picks...

Is that similar to last week... your not as confident in these picks so if you dont end up positive you wont be surprised? .... and place a confident bet in one of the night games to make up for it?

Not quite.

1st of all, its not that I am not confident or am confident. Its more my analysts projections aren't that high or are high. Last week, they were low, and that's why I said I was not confident. Thursday my analysts projected high returns, and that's why I was confident on the picks.

This week's analyst projections are not like last week. They are higher. But at the sametime, they are not Thanksgiving level either. Somewhere in the middle. So take that how you want.



But in the end, these are just projections. We know sometimes things don't work out to projections. Nonetheless, my analysts are usually right. You'll notice that trend. Noticed it last week, and noticed it this Thursday. I hope they aren't fully right this week.

[ssk13809]

GL man, I've followed your thread a bit and had a look. Not questioning any of your plays, just curious why you like the Redskins so much? Got em on your teaser and they were your first posted pick so must have been something about them and I'm just curious. Thanks

Vikkings are a bad team this year. New coaches in their 1st game usually make the team even worse. And add to the fact that the Vikkings are an EVEN worse road team (even last year they were a lot worse on the road, this year is no different). Really many things lined up against the Vikkings. Also, Redskins at 5-5 still alive for playoffs.

Like I said, many things going for the Redskins here.

[ssk13809]

how can anyone pick the panthers right now? I'm all ears about how they could cover SSK. I think clevland rolls.

1st of all calm down, it's not like I have a straight ATS bet for the Panthers. So I'm not that confident on them.

But in 2 words, Jake Delhomme.

[D3 Mighty Ducks]

Redskins -2.5 was a terrible line you got. Moneyline for Washington is now at +103.

I'm on the Panthers ATS aswell but taking them to win SU is non-sense.

Rams don't stand a chance in Denver. Orton (yes, Kyle fuking Orton) will pick apart that Rams D at home.

GL buddy.

[ssk13809]

Redskins -2.5 was a terrible line you got. Moneyline for Washington is now at +103.

I'm on the Panthers ATS aswell but taking them to win SU is non-sense.

Rams don't stand a chance in Denver. Orton (yes, Kyle fuking Orton) will pick apart that Rams D at home.

GL buddy.

Yeah I know. Should've waited. But oh well a win usually results in 3 or more points.

It's a value play. You're acting like it's CAR @ BAL. No it's not. It's against a team with Jake as the starting QB. I'll take the +400 odds there.

Yeah let's see Orton pick apart the Rams with pressure in his face.

[ScottLocke]

Redskins -2.5 was a terrible line you got. Moneyline for Washington is now at +103. I'm on the Panthers ATS aswell but taking them to win SU is non-sense. Rams don't stand a chance in Denver. Orton (yes, Kyle fuking Orton) will pick apart that Rams D at home. GL buddy.

You are aware the Rams have a pretty good defense?

[D3 Mighty Ducks]

If James Hall can put push pressure on Orton early it could be a completely different game. J.Hall is coming off his worth performance of the year against the Falcons and if he doesn't get it going there won't be much of a pass rush. Thats just my opinion.

[ScottLocke]

Atlanta also has pretty good pass protection, Denver, does not.

[D3 Mighty Ducks]

You are aware the Rams have a pretty good defense?

Yes, I am aware. Their rush defense is much stronger then their pass defense. Not just by looking at stats but the way they give up 1st down, I've watched a couple of Rams games this year. Denver won't be looking to rush much knowing that, just my opinion.

I'm on Denver -3.5 already so I guess I'm being a little bias. Good luck however

[D3 Mighty Ducks]

Also, if this turns out into a shootout like Denver chooses to play airing it out down after down I think the edge would have to go to the Broncos.

If it a low scoring physical smash mouth type game, the edge goes to Rams. We'll see early what type of game these 2 teams are planning on playing. I do think Denver will try to go more down field then dump off passes and rushing plays.

[ScottLocke]

Yes, I am aware. Their rush defense is much stronger then their pass defense. Not just by looking at stats but the way they give up 1st down, I've watched a couple of Rams games this year. Denver won't be looking to rush much knowing that, just my opinion.

I'm on Denver -3.5 already so I guess I'm being a little bias. Good luck however

Yeah their pass defense is hard to figure out, they held Philip Rivers to his worst game of the season yet they let Troy Smith throw for 350 yards on them.

[ScottLocke]

Also, if this turns out into a shootout like Denver chooses to play airing it out down after down I think the edge would have to go to the Broncos.

If it a low scoring physical smash mouth type game, the edge goes to Rams. We'll see early what type of game these 2 teams are planning on playing. I do think Denver will try to go more down field then dump off passes and rushing plays.

Yeah I just think this is a really bad spot for the Broncos, usually when teams get embarrassed on MNF it carries over into the next week, especially when a team pretty much has nothing to play for.

[Full Time Hobo]

Rams somehow run the ball better on the road then they do at home.... I dont see Denver running the ball much just because they are a pass happy offense. If it is a shootout youre right Denver should come away with this.. 3.5 spread seems small to me but i expect the Rams to hold their own here... they still have a shot at taking their division so they should show up to play

[D3 Mighty Ducks]

Yeah their pass defense is hard to figure out, they held Philip Rivers to his worst game of the season yet they let Troy Smith throw for 350 yards on them.

Yeah that is something to take into consideration. Besides that San Fran game they've been pretty consistent.

Holding Matt Ryan to his average 250 yds passing.

Josh Freeman 212 yd passing.

Matt Moore 198 passing yards, 3 INT.

I've noticed they don't force a lot of INTs however. Moore throwing 3 INTs is pretty common for that square. They got Rivers to throw 1 INT in that game. When they played the Lions Shaun Hill threw for 227 yds and 3 TDs and no INTs. Just something to look at I know previous stats only mean so much but if the Rams can't force turnovers when the Broncos are on the field and allow Orton to drive and put up points this game will turn into a shootout. Like I said if its turns into a shootout I think the Rams will be in trouble matching scores with the Broncos.

[ScottLocke]

No doubt if its a shootout the Broncos hold the edge, I think the Rams can establish the run to control the tempo in this game though.

[D3 Mighty Ducks]

No doubt if its a shootout the Broncos hold the edge, I think the Rams can establish the run to control the tempo in this game though.

Yes, your right. We'll see early tomorrow what type of game plans both teams are going to establish. A lot of people over looking this game because of the GB/ATL, PHI/CHI, SD/IND all big games tomorrow but this game were talking about should be dandy to watch from a fan point of view

[The J-Dizzle]

Hey ssk, I like Atlanta under 24.5 points, your opinion on it? As you know Packers D has been rock solid last couple of weeks allowing ONLY 10 points last 3 weeks. Also, only one team has scored 24.5+ on Packers on the entire season (detroit, who scored 26 points, 6 weeks ago).

[ssk13809]

Hey ssk, I like Atlanta under 24.5 points, your opinion on it? As you know Packers D has been rock solid last couple of weeks allowing ONLY 10 points last 3 weeks. Also, only one team has scored 24.5+ on Packers on the entire season (detroit, who scored 26 points, 6 weeks ago).

Wouldn't bet on it. Atlanta also has been scoring well at home

[ssk13809]

Adding a bet

2 Team ML Parlay
Redskins ML +100
Ravens ML -335
Risk 6 to Win 9.6

[dugdogg]

can someone explain why the vikings line has moved from +3 to -2 this week?? what is going on?? did half the redskins get food poisoning today??

[Tree Rollins]

can someone explain why the vikings line has moved from +3 to -2 this week?? what is going on?? did half the redskins get food poisoning today??

The Vikings have a new coach.

[ssk13809]

can someone explain why the vikings line has moved from +3 to -2 this week?? what is going on?? did half the redskins get food poisoning today??

Well the public has never been that smart

[dugdogg]

Well the public has never been that smart

i apologize...i wasn't able to meet with my "line movement" team this week because of the holiday

[ssk13809]

i apologize...i wasn't able to meet with my "line movement" team this week because of the holiday

I don't have a team like this.


I hope you don't think all these teams I speak of are not real.

[ScottLocke]

Well the public has never been that smart

Except its the sharps on Minnesota moving the line, not the public.

[ssk13809]

Except its the sharps on Minnesota moving the line, not the public.

Which is why I couldn't get it as a LOCK by my lock team. Some of the sharps on my team didn't support it.

[ssk13809]

Adding some bets



Eagles -165
Risk 16.5 to Win 10

Eagles -3
Risk 5.5 to Win 5



Eagles will come through again

[ssk13809]

First WAS's game winning Kick Return was nullified because of penalties
And now CAR misses the game winning 42 yarder to win the game off an upset.


Today luck is on the opposite side. Had to happen sooner or later.

[Surtainly]

If you were confident enough to bet a +400 moneyline, how the hell don't you put a dime down on +10?

[The J-Dizzle]

Well this went well... I think you are like 1-5 ATS since I started tailing

[ssk13809]

Adding some bets



Eagles -165
Risk 16.5 to Win 10

Eagles -3
Risk 5.5 to Win 5



Eagles will come through again

My chase team let me down this week




And it did not feel good to be on teh opposite side of luck

[ssk13809]

Patriots -6.5
Risk 11 to Win 10 (Win)

Saints -3.5
Risk 11 to Win 10 (Loss)

3 Team ML Parlay
Patriots -290
Saints -200
Jets -450

Risk 5 to Win 7 (Win)

3 Team Teaser (6.5 points)
Patriots pk
Saints +3
Jets -2.5
Risk 10 to win 13 (Win)


ATS Parlay
Saints -3 (-120)
Jets -9

Risk 4 to win 9 (Win 3.6)


And a small teaser
Patriots -0.5
Jets -2.5

Risk 5.5 to Win 5 (Win)



Redskins -2.5
Risk 11 to Win 10 (Loss)




Seahawks +2
Risk 11 to Win 10 (Loss)


Panthers +400
Risk 4 to Win 16 (Loss)


Rams +170
Risk 8 to Win 13.6 (Win)


3 Team Teaser (6 points)
Redskins +5
Seahawks +8.5
Chargers +8.5
Risk 5.5 to win 10 (Loss)


2 Team Teaser (7 points)
Buccaneers +14.5
Rams +10.5
Risk 10 to Win 7.5 (Win)



Panthers +10
Bucs +9
Jaguars +7.5
Rams +4

Risk 3 to Win 31.7 (Win)


Redskins ML +100
Ravens ML -335
Risk 6 to Win 9.6 (Loss)


Eagles -165
Risk 16.5 to Win 10 (Loss)

Eagles -3
Risk 5.5 to Win 5 (Loss)




Overall Week 12 Result: +20.9 Units (+13%)


Obviously, excellent Thanksgiving, and because of a lot of bad luck, I lose 7 units for the weekend. Very disappointing, overall week was okay.

Moving on. A lot of people will be fired and a different approach for next week will be implemented.