NFL season thread

[kevindakota00]

Recap.

Pats -10 8U

Colts -9 6U

Giants -3.5 4U

Falcons -10 2U

panthers +14 12U

seahawks -10 2U

Titans +4 7U

Eagles -3 5U

Cards +3 9U

Packers -10 6U

Bengals +3 1U

i am liking a side in mondays game, i will release it later. congrats to anyone that faded me last week. first losing week this season. Now that we got that out of the way, this will be a great week guys. Your money rides with these winners.

[kevindakota00]

finaly got our key number

Chiefs +7 1U

[kevindakota00]

well, it was a rocky day, anyway after the smoke cleared we are still up 10.1 units after vig. this brings our season total up to 72.95 units. congrats to whoever followed me today. i have some very early plays to jump on right away! week 10 looks great.

[kevindakota00]

week 10

saints -14 8U

dolphins -9 7U

[Dexter]

very nice kevin.

[trix]

hey kev good week...curious on ur MNF play..i'm leaning at broncos +3

[kevindakota00]

It feels great to get back on track with a good sized winning week. thankfully we pushed on the pats, hopefully you all got them at -10 before it moved to -10.5.

steelers -3 5U @ +110

[krumbz72001]

I'm glad to see ur on pittsburg I have been debating this play all day but I was leaning pittsburgh so this makes up my mind. Go pittsburgh

[kevindakota00]

a very tempting proposition in this game is to bet the steelers for the first half. Denver is a great second half team, where pit has struggled this year.

[kevindakota00]

ok guys, this play deserves to be unloaded on and that is what we are doing. unless i see RLM happening here we will sit on this play and take ML for a BIG play. The eagles will destroy the chargers next week and S.D. is actually favored. We should get like +130 - +150 odds.

[Danskeren]

You're killing the Football season!
Keep it up!
..

Glad to see you are with me on the Steelers today.

Good luck.

[kevindakota00]

ok, we are all dedicated to beating the books.

I will start giving my 2cents here and there. sorry pedro i have not been helping as much as i said i would.

Advice #1. Do not put too much weight of your decision on what the team has most recently accomplished on the field, the lines are driven by what the PUBLIC remembers(the public only has a 1 week memory span). for an example... The eagles should be favored in this game next week. The chargers won and the eagles lost. hence the chargers are favored. Lets pretend the eagled blew out dallas and the chargers got blown out by the giants. The eagles would be favored by a td in this game right?. the main aspect you should take out of the game is the mental edge the team may be motivated by or crippled by.

[kevindakota00]

the broncos will hopefully lose big today. They will bounce back next week against this reeling redskin squad. Plus they will have their RT back next week which is huge in Orton's game. With a broncos loss we should get denver at like -6 next week, that should be an easy cover.

[sibelius]

ok guys, this play deserves to be unloaded on and that is what we are doing. unless i see RLM happening here we will sit on this play and take ML for a BIG play. The eagles will destroy the chargers next week and S.D. is actually favored. We should get like +130 - +150 odds.

What unit stake for the eagles?

[kevindakota00]

it will be big, we are gonna wait till late and get a more favorable line. maybe 1 unit maybe 12. probably the latter.

[kevindakota00]

well after winning 5.5 units on the steelers game that brings our week total to a semi-monster 15.6 units of profit. so far this season we are now up 76.45 units. That makes us 3.5 units shy of what we lost on our only losing week this season.

[kevindakota00]

steelers recap.

Advice #2.

We went against RLM here. i preached earlier that it is ok to go against rlm, but dont make a habbit of it. This was a great spot for the steelers, -3 was silly, rlm is the only thing that kept this from being a larger play. the broncos are now falling apart, through the rest of the season we will be against them often.

[kevindakota00]

Ravens -10.5 6U

I can NOT advise laying your hard earned money on the ***** browns. Balt was in a bad position last week against cincy and lost like i said they would, this monday, on live t.v. they will be focused and this game will get ugly early as the browns might be facing a shutout.

[kevindakota00]

49ers -3 4U

[kevindakota00]

broncos -4 5U

[Smogs]

steelers recap.

the broncos are now falling apart, through the rest of the season we will be against them often.

broncos -4 5U

I'm a little confused here Kev, isn't this a bad play if the broncos are to be faded this season? I know how bad the redskins are but it's amazing how a loss of confidence and bad breaks can destroy a teams ability to win

[Smogs]

Just noticed the line went from a -4.5 open to -3.5 with - according to http://sportsinsights.com/affiliatec...sport_id=1&A=7 - a 87% majority on denver. Looks dodgy to say the least

[kevindakota00]

the broncos will hopefully lose big today. They will bounce back next week against this reeling redskin squad. Plus they will have their RT back next week which is huge in Orton's game. With a broncos loss we should get denver at like -6 next week, that should be an easy cover.

im sorry im giving mixed signals, i'm thinking a few weeks ahead. This is what i see happening here. Josh mcdaniels get his team fired up for this game against an inferior squad (redskins). They will be fired up after b2b losses. Now they play a team totaly in shambles and we get a decent line because denver just lost b2b. I "believe" denver will bounce back this week (any team looks good against washington) and will get smoked the next week by sandiego (HUGE game).

And about the RLM, you can't base it too strong right now considering how few bets are out there right now. Closer to game time there will be like 10x as many wagers placed on this game. could go the other way still

[kevindakota00]

falcons -1.5 7U

[GGPLAYER]

steelers recap.

Advice #2.

We went against RLM here. i preached earlier that it is ok to go against rlm, but dont make a habbit of it. This was a great spot for the steelers, -3 was silly, rlm is the only thing that kept this from being a larger play. the broncos are now falling apart, through the rest of the season we will be against them often.

Good call here. I'll admit I stuck with the Donkey's and the RLM was a big factor. For the most part it has been pretty much on. Last week Tenn and Car were both big RLM games. Many games are showing signs of RLM this week: StL, Was, Pit and Clev.

[kevindakota00]

titans -6.5 5U

[kevindakota00]

advice #3

I preached and preached to you guys earlier on about bankroll management. Doesn't matter if you have $100 bankroll or a mill. you guys can NOT weigh to much on 1 event. I suggest your largest pick of your life be 10% of your starting bankroll. If you follow my unit size accordingly, 1 units should equal around 1%. as you have seen we end up around 50-60 units weekly. So say you lose 50% of your wagers on 1 week, you only lose 1/4 of your bankroll. this way you survive to win it back. Look at what we did, 2 weeks ago we lost for the first week this season, we survived, since we still far exceed our begining bankroll we kept the same unit size, the following week we were able to regain most of the lost money.

The key in this bussiness is money management, win the marathon, not the sprint. You ALWAYS end up losing if you chase. That 100 dimes fellow, "unload on your top picks" long story short, he unloaded and is no longer with us.

[kevindakota00]

we got our key number

Cards -8.5 6U

[kevindakota00]

jaguars +7 3U

[kevindakota00]

seems like an awfull square play to me, but the packers o-line is so bad i have to fade them.

Cowboys -2.5 4U

[kevindakota00]

chiefs ML +110 2U

[Parligod]

Nice picks this week Kev, I'm on almost all of them also.
Any additional thoughts on Jags +7, Falcons -1.5 and Cards -9 (its bumped to 9 now)? Cards worry me sometimes in consistency, 1-3 at home, 4-0 on the road. They torched Seattle on the road I expect a similar result, but the Panthers game left a bad taste in my mouth (I still picked them over Bears last week though). Thanks again for your insight.
-Parli

[kevindakota00]

cardinals

i understand parli that the cards are 1-3 at home. But also understand seattle is 0-3 on the road. The cardinals attack the qb, and seattle is terrible at protecting hasselbeck. on the other side of the ball, wisenhunt figured out that running the ball will effectively help his offense, what a concept. The should be able to produce against seattle's weak stop unit. Plus last meeting warner only got sacked twice and torched seattle's secondary 32 completions in 41 attempts! for 276 yards. I expect similiar results. To add to this arizona's secondary has been "decent" lately and minus that carolina whooping the have been solid against the run. I expect seattle to be in many 3rd and long situations this game and hasselbeck to be knocked around. After arizona's loss, the should be looking to rebound here, and what better way to blow out an inferior team.

[DarkNite]

broncos -4 5U

Congrats on win (SF).
I like a lot DEN, I think this line will move a lot more on Sunday, I think it will go up to -7.

[kevindakota00]

with the 49er's win that brings our unit total to 80.05 units of profit this season. We are right back to were we were before our only losing weekend this season. This week i'm liking a lot more the more i study.