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  • The J-Dizzle
    SBR MVP
    • 03-09-10
    • 1090

    #281
    Then we agree. I could play Cards up to -4, same with Vikings. Vikings perhaps won't score 40 points but they can limit Kansas who need to reroute their offense towards passing with Smith. Vikings should focus on eliminating Kelce, and they should be fine. They still scored 20 points on the leagues best defense. This could end 27-14.
    Comment
    • 2daBank
      SBR Aristocracy
      • 01-26-09
      • 88966

      #282
      Originally posted by The J-Dizzle
      Then we agree. I could play Cards up to -4, same with Vikings. Vikings perhaps won't score 40 points but they can limit Kansas who need to reroute their offense towards passing with Smith. Vikings should focus on eliminating Kelce, and they should be fine. They still scored 20 points on the leagues best defense. This could end 27-14.
      i didnt have chance to see kc gm but was curious who that west kid is and why was he getting the carries over kniles davis? this isnt the 1st time charles has been out under reid and they dont have to change anything, davis did a great job of replacing him before. dont get me wrong charles is pretty special but i really dont think he worth even a fg considering they have a very competent backup that could start for a lot of teams. the offense wont change any but that said id still like minny in a world where charles didnt get hurt.
      Comment
      • 2daBank
        SBR Aristocracy
        • 01-26-09
        • 88966

        #283
        week 6

        atl/aints un 51 -105 (1.5x).. i know i hate the thu night cash grab shit fest and truthfully rather not play it but ive been passing and decided weeks ago i would only play if i really liked a play, i really like this play and think thu night actually plays into helping our cause here. 1st and foremost i think it incredibly obvious that julio is not close to healthy and in fact got a lot worse in that dal game where he was a monster, since that game he has been incredibly avg. i was willing to look past the hou game as game flow and situation didnt really dictate falcons needing him to be the beast he is, however this past week against a crappy skins secondary he was virtually non existent for a large portion of the gm, if i recall correctly most his yards came on atl's go ahead score late in the game when they had to have him. imo atl would be better served sitting him this week for several reasons, 1st off they can most likely win this game without him, secondly if there ever a time they could afford a loss it now vs a aints team that no threat whatsoever, combine those things with the fact they be far better served trying to get him right now than still having him hobbled later in the year. obviously i dont know they will sit him, i just think it conceivable. more importantly i guess is even if he plays there no way we can expect him to be any better than he was sunday on a short week.

        the reasons that all makes sense and i like this play regardless of what julio does are simple enough. as ive been mentioning since beginning of the year i love the falcons coach and not only are his fingerprints all over the improved defense but they are also a physical rushing offense that is second in the nfl in rushing attempts, have rushed for 156 per game the last 3, and 4.7 per during that span. not only has freeman emerged as one of the better backs in the league but coleman will be much closer to healthy this week as well which will only make this attack even stronger. i love what shanny has done with the offense and it has directly gone hand in hand with helping the improved d. this has went from a soft dome team into one of the more physical teams in the league who leads the league in time of possession. this game is tailor made for atl to dominate on the ground facing a weak saints defense that is bottom 5 in rushing yards against, yards per attempt, opponent attempts per game. bottom line as bad as saints pass d stinks their run d is equally as putrid and i believe falcons coach is the kind of guy that would love to stuff it down their throats to control and shorten the game on a short week they are forced to travel.

        i believe it incredibly reasonable to expect falcons to give us a heavy dose of the run game and clock control on thu night, the aints defense is horrible so obviously i think atl can score basically any way they so choose and they will get points no doubt. i think 27-30 a very reasonable expectation for the falcons here as i believe they will be up a decent amount and salting the game away will become a bigger concern than scoring by half way thru the 3rd qrtr.

        that leaves us to consider what the hapless saints can potentially score. lets start with the fact the last 5x these teams have played saints have posted scores of 14, 34, 17, 23, 13 all going under with the exception of the 37-34 shootout in atl last season. lets remember those unspectacular totals were posted with a much better aints offense that their current form and a much worse atl d who also didnt have the benefit of such a strong ball controlling run game. now lets look at what saints offense doing this season thus far posting totals of 17, 26 (with a ot td), 22, 19, and 19. i just cant see them getting more than 20 in this contest which is why i made this total in the 47 range with a lean to lower than higher and my high side at 50. lets call it 27-17 dirty birds..

        even more than thu nights i hate betting side and total in same game but it very hard to resist here.

        atl-3 -125 (1x)
        Comment
        • The J-Dizzle
          SBR MVP
          • 03-09-10
          • 1090

          #284
          Sure but Charles is so important inte the passing game aswell. They managed to lose 15 straight points when Charles went out. He's one of the best three RB's in the league IMO. I don't believe the backup will manage 5 yards/carry and be such a contributing factor in the passing game. But I can be wrong. Like u said, I would play Vikings before Charles was injured but it makes me like Vikings so much more.

          Do you dare to play under on TNF?
          Comment
          • 2daBank
            SBR Aristocracy
            • 01-26-09
            • 88966

            #285
            Originally posted by The J-Dizzle
            Sure but Charles is so important inte the passing game aswell. They managed to lose 15 straight points when Charles went out. He's one of the best three RB's in the league IMO. I don't believe the backup will manage 5 yards/carry and be such a contributing factor in the passing game. But I can be wrong. Like u said, I would play Vikings before Charles was injured but it makes me like Vikings so much more.

            Do you dare to play under on TNF?
            yep under thu night.. im not 100% sure i am right on this but i wanna say last time charles missed significant time davis in fact did avg really close to 5ypc. im not saying charles a bum i know he incredibly talented, i just dont think there any rbs worth more than a point or 2 tops, hell even if ap went down they have a very good backup as well and i dont think min be significantly worse. proof in that statement is you know minny at least -3 even if charles playing so clearly books think along the same lines with rbs value to a game no matter the talent level we talking about..
            Comment
            • Time is Money
              SBR MVP
              • 12-03-07
              • 2255

              #286
              Originally posted by 2daBank
              yep under thu night.. im not 100% sure i am right on this but i wanna say last time charles missed significant time davis in fact did avg really close to 5ypc. im not saying charles a bum i know he incredibly talented, i just dont think there any rbs worth more than a point or 2 tops, hell even if ap went down they have a very good backup as well and i dont think min be significantly worse. proof in that statement is you know minny at least -3 even if charles playing so clearly books think along the same lines with rbs value to a game no matter the talent level we talking about..
              Agree, don't think Murray being declared out at the last minute against the Jets a few weeks ago moved the line at all. Running backs are a dime a dozen, Bell is a monster but we all saw Deangelo Williams eat when he was out. OLine is everything, we saw that last night with Rivers have zero time in the pocket and Gordon struggling to find anywhere to run (fukkin fumble at midfield didnt help though thats for sure)
              Comment
              • The J-Dizzle
                SBR MVP
                • 03-09-10
                • 1090

                #287
                Perhaps they won't miss him in the running game, even though I have a hard time believing a backup will recquire the same amount of attention.. But I think they will miss him more in the passing game as he oftens lines up as a reciever or running HB routes. Without him Minnesota can put an extra defender on Kelce instead.
                Charles is a big playmaker and a huge leader, it's a great loss.

                Same thing with Bell being out. DeAngelo was great but Bell adds an extra dimension in their passing game aswell. Why else would you take out a RB who made 3 TDs in two games in favor for Bell. Great playmakers in the open field and great leaders.
                Comment
                • The J-Dizzle
                  SBR MVP
                  • 03-09-10
                  • 1090

                  #288
                  Cards-3. Jump on it bank?
                  Comment
                  • Cross44
                    SBR High Roller
                    • 10-29-12
                    • 102

                    #289
                    Originally posted by 2daBank
                    yep under thu night.. im not 100% sure i am right on this but i wanna say last time charles missed significant time davis in fact did avg really close to 5ypc. im not saying charles a bum i know he incredibly talented, i just dont think there any rbs worth more than a point or 2 tops, hell even if ap went down they have a very good backup as well and i dont think min be significantly worse. proof in that statement is you know minny at least -3 even if charles playing so clearly books think along the same lines with rbs value to a game no matter the talent level we talking about..
                    I think Jamaal Charles well worth more than the .5 points he was given in Vegas. That's disrespectful imo, this dude is not only a generational talent, but also the focal points of this Chiefs offense. Sometimes I think you can lose a "star" skill player and have it not effect much (see Jordy Nelson) but in the case of non QB players whose offense runs through them such as Dez and Jamaal Charles, I disagree with Vegas. I lean Vikes but don't want to play them with the spread as I think KC D is still legit. Will look to parlay the ML.
                    Comment
                    • 2daBank
                      SBR Aristocracy
                      • 01-26-09
                      • 88966

                      #290
                      you guys do realize that reid churns out backs that put up numbers and impact games like no tomorrow right, this movie has played out before and there simply wasnt a noticeable drop off when charles was out. wish i could find a way to see kc record under reid when charles in fact doesnt play as id bet it is not much different. anyway im inclined to agree with vegas that he isnt worth a full point cause that west kid and kniles davis will produce very similar numbers imo..

                      cross you gotta be joking with kc defense? they been wretched this season. they stack up ok with minny cause the run d been solid but the pass d atrocious. i suspect teddy b and mike wallace have big games this week (long as wallace healthy, saw he was on injury report so gotta keep a eye on that).
                      Comment
                      • Cross44
                        SBR High Roller
                        • 10-29-12
                        • 102

                        #291
                        Originally posted by 2daBank
                        you guys do realize that reid churns out backs that put up numbers and impact games like no tomorrow right, this movie has played out before and there simply wasnt a noticeable drop off when charles was out. wish i could find a way to see kc record under reid when charles in fact doesnt play as id bet it is not much different. anyway im inclined to agree with vegas that he isnt worth a full point cause that west kid and kniles davis will produce very similar numbers imo..

                        cross you gotta be joking with kc defense? they been wretched this season. they stack up ok with minny cause the run d been solid but the pass d atrocious. i suspect teddy b and mike wallace have big games this week (long as wallace healthy, saw he was on injury report so gotta keep a eye on that).
                        You've talk've me outta some Chiefs losses already this season, so I hear ya.

                        But I think Charles worlds above Davis or this new kid West. Not sure about W/L stats, but in terms of production there's a clear gap: http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/eye-on-...charles-and-me

                        In terms of the KC defense, not saying they're good but I think you gotta consider they blew out Houston and let Mallet get a bunch of garbage yards, and then played Rodgers at home and Dalton at home. I think they're the average defense that played in the DEN/CHI games. If I'm laying points against the Chiefs, I'm worried about that pass rush for Teddy more than KC putting up points without Charles.
                        Comment
                        • 2daBank
                          SBR Aristocracy
                          • 01-26-09
                          • 88966

                          #292
                          Originally posted by Cross44
                          You've talk've me outta some Chiefs losses already this season, so I hear ya.

                          But I think Charles worlds above Davis or this new kid West. Not sure about W/L stats, but in terms of production there's a clear gap: http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/eye-on-...charles-and-me

                          In terms of the KC defense, not saying they're good but I think you gotta consider they blew out Houston and let Mallet get a bunch of garbage yards, and then played Rodgers at home and Dalton at home. I think they're the average defense that played in the DEN/CHI games. If I'm laying points against the Chiefs, I'm worried about that pass rush for Teddy more than KC putting up points without Charles.
                          im gonna get into the numbers and stuff 2marro, off top of my head I'd say sure kc can get after the qb but their secondary is trash and very susceptible to big plays when the rush doesn't get there. Wallace had a really nice gm against donks elite pass d so think he has no problems torching kc, along same lines I think teddy b after starting slow getting into the swing of things. We know the run game gonna be there, minny just a solid well balanced offense. Chiefs biggest issue is no matter how well they get after the opposing qb theirs the one under the most pressure, that oline playing abysmal football and has smith hearing footsteps. Vikings defense is gonna shut this team down and probably set up a couple short fields. Minny will have no problem scoring 23-24 and that be more than enough IMO.
                          Comment
                          • WWCD
                            SBR MVP
                            • 11-22-13
                            • 1957

                            #293
                            Why people keep thinking about taking KC against anyone is beyond me. With Charles now out, anyone who bets on them must be insane. They have won ONE game. Against the Texans!
                            Comment
                            • The J-Dizzle
                              SBR MVP
                              • 03-09-10
                              • 1090

                              #294
                              I've already locked in Cardinals. Leaning hard against Falcons and Vikings.

                              WWCD sure their only win is against Texans but after that they had Broncos, Packers, Bengals. And they should have beaten that Broncos team. But their D hasn't been the same since last year. And Charles is the great playmaker on that offense.
                              Comment
                              • The J-Dizzle
                                SBR MVP
                                • 03-09-10
                                • 1090

                                #295
                                What's your take on Patriots? Bellichick should be able to exploit this badly playing Colts defense. Pats have won with an average of 29 points against Luck. And Luck hasn't impressed at all, if he's healthy to begin with. I like Patriots, but not sure whether to play them ATS, ML in a teaser with GB, or both.. Can Colts get away with a win in this one with their and pats current form?
                                Comment
                                • 2daBank
                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                  • 01-26-09
                                  • 88966

                                  #296
                                  Originally posted by The J-Dizzle
                                  What's your take on Patriots? Bellichick should be able to exploit this badly playing Colts defense. Pats have won with an average of 29 points against Luck. And Luck hasn't impressed at all, if he's healthy to begin with. I like Patriots, but not sure whether to play them ATS, ML in a teaser with GB, or both.. Can Colts get away with a win in this one with their and pats current form?
                                  pats prob win and cover easy i guess, beats me. if ya havnt noticed im allergic to those easy looking plays, every now and again ill play one (like zona last week) but it usually not on spreads that high cause im also kinda allergic to laying a lot of points. lol.. im really uneasy even considering teams that keep covering week after week cause it really rare in the nfl for books to allow that very long before over adjusting the spread.

                                  far as game goes i think that luck being out a few weeks actually will help indy as they established a little identity that didnt involve forcing him to sit back and do everything. i fully expect him to be back to more what we used to seeing and will have the help of a offense that a little more balanced. pats defense nothing special, sure they shut down the weeden led cowboys but i saw a stat that weeden only throws to one side of the field, hoodie can gameplan against that despite his personal. wont be as easy against luck and his weapons. of course brady and co prob look to run this bitch up after colts played snitch on the whole deflate gate bs. i havnt even looked at total yet but im thinking they probably cant make it high enough (im guessing 56).
                                  Comment
                                  • 2daBank
                                    SBR Aristocracy
                                    • 01-26-09
                                    • 88966

                                    #297
                                    Originally posted by 2daBank
                                    week 6

                                    atl/aints un 51 -105 (1.5x).. i know i hate the thu night cash grab shit fest and truthfully rather not play it but ive been passing and decided weeks ago i would only play if i really liked a play, i really like this play and think thu night actually plays into helping our cause here. 1st and foremost i think it incredibly obvious that julio is not close to healthy and in fact got a lot worse in that dal game where he was a monster, since that game he has been incredibly avg. i was willing to look past the hou game as game flow and situation didnt really dictate falcons needing him to be the beast he is, however this past week against a crappy skins secondary he was virtually non existent for a large portion of the gm, if i recall correctly most his yards came on atl's go ahead score late in the game when they had to have him. imo atl would be better served sitting him this week for several reasons, 1st off they can most likely win this game without him, secondly if there ever a time they could afford a loss it now vs a aints team that no threat whatsoever, combine those things with the fact they be far better served trying to get him right now than still having him hobbled later in the year. obviously i dont know they will sit him, i just think it conceivable. more importantly i guess is even if he plays there no way we can expect him to be any better than he was sunday on a short week.

                                    the reasons that all makes sense and i like this play regardless of what julio does are simple enough. as ive been mentioning since beginning of the year i love the falcons coach and not only are his fingerprints all over the improved defense but they are also a physical rushing offense that is second in the nfl in rushing attempts, have rushed for 156 per game the last 3, and 4.7 per during that span. not only has freeman emerged as one of the better backs in the league but coleman will be much closer to healthy this week as well which will only make this attack even stronger. i love what shanny has done with the offense and it has directly gone hand in hand with helping the improved d. this has went from a soft dome team into one of the more physical teams in the league who leads the league in time of possession. this game is tailor made for atl to dominate on the ground facing a weak saints defense that is bottom 5 in rushing yards against, yards per attempt, opponent attempts per game. bottom line as bad as saints pass d stinks their run d is equally as putrid and i believe falcons coach is the kind of guy that would love to stuff it down their throats to control and shorten the game on a short week they are forced to travel.

                                    i believe it incredibly reasonable to expect falcons to give us a heavy dose of the run game and clock control on thu night, the aints defense is horrible so obviously i think atl can score basically any way they so choose and they will get points no doubt. i think 27-30 a very reasonable expectation for the falcons here as i believe they will be up a decent amount and salting the game away will become a bigger concern than scoring by half way thru the 3rd qrtr.

                                    that leaves us to consider what the hapless saints can potentially score. lets start with the fact the last 5x these teams have played saints have posted scores of 14, 34, 17, 23, 13 all going under with the exception of the 37-34 shootout in atl last season. lets remember those unspectacular totals were posted with a much better aints offense that their current form and a much worse atl d who also didnt have the benefit of such a strong ball controlling run game. now lets look at what saints offense doing this season thus far posting totals of 17, 26 (with a ot td), 22, 19, and 19. i just cant see them getting more than 20 in this contest which is why i made this total in the 47 range with a lean to lower than higher and my high side at 50. lets call it 27-17 dirty birds..

                                    even more than thu nights i hate betting side and total in same game but it very hard to resist here.

                                    atl-3 -125 (1x)
                                    pats/colts ov 55 (2x).. they cant make this total high enough imo. i said 56 above but that was just a guess where it was set, if im saying what i think these teams combine to score at the end of the night im going significantly higher. dont think either team has any problem cracking 30, my best guess is around 68-72 when the clock hits zero.. we know pats gonna score and continue to score here, after taking out the off season on everyone in their path they finally get the team that snitched them out. what you think they gonna do? they coming to prove a point and that point gets proven by brady throwing 5 tds.

                                    i dont expect for this to be the ass kicking many are calling for tho and here is why. i fully expect luck to play and i expect him to be the luck we all used to not the one from the 1st couple weeks. i actually think that luck's absence the last few weeks was really good for this team as they were forced to establish a offensive identity that wasnt having luck sit back and get killed with everything on his shoulders, this helps in several ways, obviously the fact they figured out they can in fact run the ball a little will help keep him protected and open up the play action shots down field, the other is i think it was good for him to see that his team can actually win games where he isnt doing everything (or anything at all in this case, lol). not only has gore became involved last week they got andre johnson going as well and all a sudden i think this offense is one all world qb away from looking like many envisioned when they were making these off season moves.

                                    neither defense is equipped to deal with these offenses. ratings gonna be insane. this has all the makings of everything the nfl wants and it gonna be a video game! luck has seen enough of hoodies defenses at this point and now he seeing it with more weapons at his disposal while the elite players from last years pats unit are gone. that all im gonna say, get ready cause even my old school defense liking ass is kinda excited for this one as i have a feeling it gonna be epic fun as colts unexpectedly give pats everything they can handle and this thing won by whoever has the ball last. 38-34 somebody (i think pats but i also feel like we ripe for a few absolute burials that kills ats, teasers, ml paralys, everything, it coming just dunno if it here)..
                                    Comment
                                    • SmittyZ28
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 09-04-12
                                      • 1469

                                      #298
                                      Originally posted by 2daBank
                                      pats/colts ov 55 (2x).. they cant make this total high enough imo. i said 56 above but that was just a guess where it was set, if im saying what i think these teams combine to score at the end of the night im going significantly higher. dont think either team has any problem cracking 30, my best guess is around 68-72 when the clock hits zero.. we know pats gonna score and continue to score here, after taking out the off season on everyone in their path they finally get the team that snitched them out. what you think they gonna do? they coming to prove a point and that point gets proven by brady throwing 5 tds.

                                      i dont expect for this to be the ass kicking many are calling for tho and here is why. i fully expect luck to play and i expect him to be the luck we all used to not the one from the 1st couple weeks. i actually think that luck's absence the last few weeks was really good for this team as they were forced to establish a offensive identity that wasnt having luck sit back and get killed with everything on his shoulders, this helps in several ways, obviously the fact they figured out they can in fact run the ball a little will help keep him protected and open up the play action shots down field, the other is i think it was good for him to see that his team can actually win games where he isnt doing everything (or anything at all in this case, lol). not only has gore became involved last week they got andre johnson going as well and all a sudden i think this offense is one all world qb away from looking like many envisioned when they were making these off season moves.

                                      neither defense is equipped to deal with these offenses. ratings gonna be insane. this has all the makings of everything the nfl wants and it gonna be a video game! luck has seen enough of hoodies defenses at this point and now he seeing it with more weapons at his disposal while the elite players from last years pats unit are gone. that all im gonna say, get ready cause even my old school defense liking ass is kinda excited for this one as i have a feeling it gonna be epic fun as colts unexpectedly give pats everything they can handle and this thing won by whoever has the ball last. 38-34 somebody (i think pats but i also feel like we ripe for a few absolute burials that kills ats, teasers, ml paralys, everything, it coming just dunno if it here)..
                                      Only thing I question here man is we don't really know what this Patriot defense is yet. Held Steelers week 1 to 21 points which doesn't mean a whole lot, gave up 19 in the 4th quarter to buffalo week 2 and between Jax and Dallas only gave up 23 last two weeks, but thats also Dallas and Jax haha. Not sure how good or bad this D actually is yet, ranked 4th in the league right now. Lot of question marks with them. GL Brotha
                                      Comment
                                      • sharper2
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 03-30-10
                                        • 2724

                                        #299
                                        Originally posted by SmittyZ28
                                        Only thing I question here man is we don't really know what this Patriot defense is yet. Held Steelers week 1 to 21 points which doesn't mean a whole lot, gave up 19 in the 4th quarter to buffalo week 2 and between Jax and Dallas only gave up 23 last two weeks, but thats also Dallas and Jax haha. Not sure how good or bad this D actually is yet, ranked 4th in the league right now. Lot of question marks with them. GL Brotha
                                        I hear that. The defense coming into the season was my biggest question mark since Butler was going to be the top CB which is a significant drop off from Revis or even Browner. So far the secondary has exceeded expectations but I don't see how TY doesn't have success against this secondary and think Moncrief can give them trouble too. I fully expect the Colts to put up 24+ especially if Hightower doesn't play. The real question is how are the Pats gonna do without Solder protecting Brady's blindside
                                        Comment
                                        • 2daBank
                                          SBR Aristocracy
                                          • 01-26-09
                                          • 88966

                                          #300
                                          Originally posted by sharper2
                                          I hear that. The defense coming into the season was my biggest question mark since Butler was going to be the top CB which is a significant drop off from Revis or even Browner. So far the secondary has exceeded expectations but I don't see how TY doesn't have success against this secondary and think Moncrief can give them trouble too. I fully expect the Colts to put up 24+ especially if Hightower doesn't play. The real question is how are the Pats gonna do without Solder protecting Brady's blindside
                                          Chip with backs, 2 te sets, I'm sure they figure it out and let's be real colts d gonna get picked apart, hardy ain't walking in the door off suspension to wreak havoc like last week. That was the 1st week I was willing to talk about dal defense as upper tier because they were adding elite pass rusher and couple talented lbs. they got after Brady in a way colts could only dream of and pats still hung 30.
                                          Comment
                                          • unitedlad
                                            SBR Wise Guy
                                            • 01-10-12
                                            • 845

                                            #301
                                            Originally posted by 2daBank
                                            Chip with backs, 2 te sets, I'm sure they figure it out and let's be real colts d gonna get picked apart, hardy ain't walking in the door off suspension to wreak havoc like last week. That was the 1st week I was willing to talk about dal defense as upper tier because they were adding elite pass rusher and couple talented lbs. they got after Brady in a way colts could only dream of and pats still hung 30.
                                            If your think is that Brady is more than likely to tear up the Colts D then why not just go for the Pats TT over?
                                            Comment
                                            • 2daBank
                                              SBR Aristocracy
                                              • 01-26-09
                                              • 88966

                                              #302
                                              Originally posted by unitedlad
                                              If your think is that Brady is more than likely to tear up the Colts D then why not just go for the Pats TT over?
                                              as i said in write up i think colts are gonna score more than their fair share as well. im not opposed to either team total over as i think they both eclipse their numbers. im just not a fan of team totals, they usually -115 juice plus game flow and number of possessions has a lot to do with how i set my totals so even if one team comes up short i still feel possessions will be there the underdog could conceivably make up the points the fav fails to get me.. generally when i like overs (especially in college with bigger spreads or in this case with more than a td spread) it means i kinda like the dog to at the very least be very competitive.
                                              Comment
                                              • 2daBank
                                                SBR Aristocracy
                                                • 01-26-09
                                                • 88966

                                                #303
                                                Originally posted by SmittyZ28
                                                Only thing I question here man is we don't really know what this Patriot defense is yet. Held Steelers week 1 to 21 points which doesn't mean a whole lot, gave up 19 in the 4th quarter to buffalo week 2 and between Jax and Dallas only gave up 23 last two weeks, but thats also Dallas and Jax haha. Not sure how good or bad this D actually is yet, ranked 4th in the league right now. Lot of question marks with them. GL Brotha
                                                id never expect a hoodie defense to be terrible but bottom line is they lost a lot of talent in the secondary and colts have added some weapons, hoodie at his best taking away what you do best and he can do that with any number of different pieces. in colts case i think adding johnson and gore give them a lot of balance so hard to single out one thing/player to take away..

                                                before the dal game i saw something about weeden only throwing to one side of the field, that instantly got me off thinking bout boys (which i typically do when they in the dog role) and made me play the under. i mean if hoodie knows he only has to take away one side of the field you know that qb gonna struggle, lol.
                                                Comment
                                                • The J-Dizzle
                                                  SBR MVP
                                                  • 03-09-10
                                                  • 1090

                                                  #304
                                                  Bank what do you make out of the colts/pats total moving from 55 to 54 under the day? Whats up with that?
                                                  I do like the over in nearly every Colts game with Luck but I'm concerned with the movement.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • 2daBank
                                                    SBR Aristocracy
                                                    • 01-26-09
                                                    • 88966

                                                    #305
                                                    Originally posted by The J-Dizzle
                                                    Bank what do you make out of the colts/pats total moving from 55 to 54 under the day? Whats up with that?
                                                    I do like the over in nearly every Colts game with Luck but I'm concerned with the movement.
                                                    not a whole lot, back when chip 1st arrived in philly and they were setting their totals in this range you always saw some money come in on the under. i just think there certain ppl that havnt adjusted with the times and will always look to play under on totals this high. throw in the fact it not a given that luck will play and makes sense there some money on the under. ill give ya im totally screwed if luck doesnt play but i fully expect him to.. i should have waited i guess but i felt i was better off playing cause way i looked at it i was perfectly happy with anything less than 56. bottom line with this game is i dont think they could have realistically set it where it belongs so doesnt really matter wtf they do with it, if i had to guess id say they thrilled with the under money they getting cause im sure they will take a ton of over money throughout the day sunday and i think it will tick back up. i think more times than not i get the better of totals against the closer but im certainly no line reader expert, lol.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • The J-Dizzle
                                                      SBR MVP
                                                      • 03-09-10
                                                      • 1090

                                                      #306
                                                      Yes I guess you're right. Not worried about Colts trying to control the clock, keeping Brady out of the game?
                                                      Like I said, I do like the over and Colts-Titans over were the easiest money this year.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • 2daBank
                                                        SBR Aristocracy
                                                        • 01-26-09
                                                        • 88966

                                                        #307
                                                        Originally posted by The J-Dizzle
                                                        Yes I guess you're right. Not worried about Colts trying to control the clock, keeping Brady out of the game?
                                                        Like I said, I do like the over and Colts-Titans over were the easiest money this year.
                                                        i suppose indy could try and play ball control but ultimately it not really their game and the defense isnt gonna hold up enough against the pats for that strategy to work real long, at some point luck is gonna be forced to match scores with brady.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • The J-Dizzle
                                                          SBR MVP
                                                          • 03-09-10
                                                          • 1090

                                                          #308
                                                          What's your take on Jets? I really like them, think they will cover that -6 spread.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • Twiz
                                                            SBR Sharp
                                                            • 10-22-13
                                                            • 442

                                                            #309
                                                            I played the under indy/pats w/ a lot of the same logic you played the over. Think we'll see real efficient offenses for sure...just don't think you can get to a total like 55 without some big plays. Colts know brady will shred them regardless so they play some bend don't break...let them check down to lewis/edelman...make pats run a few extra plays and try to punch a ball loose. Offensively I think Colts (if luck plays) can get it done too also but you gotta think "keeping brady off the field" angle has to play some kinda factor so they'll keep gore involved.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • 2daBank
                                                              SBR Aristocracy
                                                              • 01-26-09
                                                              • 88966

                                                              #310
                                                              Originally posted by The J-Dizzle
                                                              What's your take on Jets? I really like them, think they will cover that -6 spread.
                                                              i personally think they laying too many, dont really have any interest in skins either tho.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • 2daBank
                                                                SBR Aristocracy
                                                                • 01-26-09
                                                                • 88966

                                                                #311
                                                                Originally posted by Twiz
                                                                I played the under indy/pats w/ a lot of the same logic you played the over. Think we'll see real efficient offenses for sure...just don't think you can get to a total like 55 without some big plays. Colts know brady will shred them regardless so they play some bend don't break...let them check down to lewis/edelman...make pats run a few extra plays and try to punch a ball loose. Offensively I think Colts (if luck plays) can get it done too also but you gotta think "keeping brady off the field" angle has to play some kinda factor so they'll keep gore involved.
                                                                while i think there some merit to that my thing is you really dont expect both teams to put up 4 tds in a game like that? surely they both gonna have 8-9 possessions minimum. i almost think there no way pats dont score on half theirs, which in turn will force indy away from trying to play "keep away" at some point.. i have a really hard time envisioning this game not being played in the 30s but prime time been the death of me thus far so i could be wrong, lol..
                                                                Comment
                                                                • 2daBank
                                                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                                                  • 01-26-09
                                                                  • 88966

                                                                  #312
                                                                  Originally posted by 2daBank
                                                                  pats/colts ov 55 (2x).. they cant make this total high enough imo. i said 56 above but that was just a guess where it was set, if im saying what i think these teams combine to score at the end of the night im going significantly higher. dont think either team has any problem cracking 30, my best guess is around 68-72 when the clock hits zero.. we know pats gonna score and continue to score here, after taking out the off season on everyone in their path they finally get the team that snitched them out. what you think they gonna do? they coming to prove a point and that point gets proven by brady throwing 5 tds.

                                                                  i dont expect for this to be the ass kicking many are calling for tho and here is why. i fully expect luck to play and i expect him to be the luck we all used to not the one from the 1st couple weeks. i actually think that luck's absence the last few weeks was really good for this team as they were forced to establish a offensive identity that wasnt having luck sit back and get killed with everything on his shoulders, this helps in several ways, obviously the fact they figured out they can in fact run the ball a little will help keep him protected and open up the play action shots down field, the other is i think it was good for him to see that his team can actually win games where he isnt doing everything (or anything at all in this case, lol). not only has gore became involved last week they got andre johnson going as well and all a sudden i think this offense is one all world qb away from looking like many envisioned when they were making these off season moves.

                                                                  neither defense is equipped to deal with these offenses. ratings gonna be insane. this has all the makings of everything the nfl wants and it gonna be a video game! luck has seen enough of hoodies defenses at this point and now he seeing it with more weapons at his disposal while the elite players from last years pats unit are gone. that all im gonna say, get ready cause even my old school defense liking ass is kinda excited for this one as i have a feeling it gonna be epic fun as colts unexpectedly give pats everything they can handle and this thing won by whoever has the ball last. 38-34 somebody (i think pats but i also feel like we ripe for a few absolute burials that kills ats, teasers, ml paralys, everything, it coming just dunno if it here)..
                                                                  bills+3 (1.5x).. this the first time this year i will be against the bungals, clearly i like cincy but this a bad spot for them coming off the big comeback over sea last week and going on road to face a bills team that matches up well...you can run on this cincy d and teams been doing it to the tune of 4.8 ypc, we all know rex's team is gonna run the football. id have rather seen carlos williams back however shady will play and between him dixon and herron i dont think bills will have much problem churning out yards on the ground. im not as worried about ej after talking with a few guys i respect from the buffalo area that all say he has made a lot of progress since last time he was starting games, he should have watkins back and cincy is banged up in the secondary. this play really comes down to me thinking while improved dalton current form just isnt sustainable and buf a good place for a qb to lay a stinker. i think fat boys d will confuse him into a couple of mistakes and the offense will limit bungals chances by pounding the rock. i like bills to win outright but will take the 3 which is more points than bills got at home against the pats, i like the bungals and all but im not ready to say they should be laying more road wood than the pats.. . 23-20 bills.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • 2daBank
                                                                    SBR Aristocracy
                                                                    • 01-26-09
                                                                    • 88966

                                                                    #313
                                                                    Originally posted by 2daBank
                                                                    Originally Posted by 2daBank
                                                                    pats/colts ov 55 (2x).. they cant make this total high enough imo. i said 56 above but that was just a guess where it was set, if im saying what i think these teams combine to score at the end of the night im going significantly higher. dont think either team has any problem cracking 30, my best guess is around 68-72 when the clock hits zero.. we know pats gonna score and continue to score here, after taking out the off season on everyone in their path they finally get the team that snitched them out. what you think they gonna do? they coming to prove a point and that point gets proven by brady throwing 5 tds.

                                                                    i dont expect for this to be the ass kicking many are calling for tho and here is why. i fully expect luck to play and i expect him to be the luck we all used to not the one from the 1st couple weeks. i actually think that luck's absence the last few weeks was really good for this team as they were forced to establish a offensive identity that wasnt having luck sit back and get killed with everything on his shoulders, this helps in several ways, obviously the fact they figured out they can in fact run the ball a little will help keep him protected and open up the play action shots down field, the other is i think it was good for him to see that his team can actually win games where he isnt doing everything (or anything at all in this case, lol). not only has gore became involved last week they got andre johnson going as well and all a sudden i think this offense is one all world qb away from looking like many envisioned when they were making these off season moves.

                                                                    neither defense is equipped to deal with these offenses. ratings gonna be insane. this has all the makings of everything the nfl wants and it gonna be a video game! luck has seen enough of hoodies defenses at this point and now he seeing it with more weapons at his disposal while the elite players from last years pats unit are gone. that all im gonna say, get ready cause even my old school defense liking ass is kinda excited for this one as i have a feeling it gonna be epic fun as colts unexpectedly give pats everything they can handle and this thing won by whoever has the ball last. 38-34 somebody (i think pats but i also feel like we ripe for a few absolute burials that kills ats, teasers, ml paralys, everything, it coming just dunno if it here)..


                                                                    bills+3 (1.5x).. this the first time this year i will be against the bungals, clearly i like cincy but this a bad spot for them coming off the big comeback over sea last week and going on road to face a bills team that matches up well...you can run on this cincy d and teams been doing it to the tune of 4.8 ypc, we all know rex's team is gonna run the football. id have rather seen carlos williams back however shady will play and between him dixon and herron i dont think bills will have much problem churning out yards on the ground. im not as worried about ej after talking with a few guys i respect from the buffalo area that all say he has made a lot of progress since last time he was starting games, he should have watkins back and cincy is banged up in the secondary. this play really comes down to me thinking while improved dalton current form just isnt sustainable and buf a good place for a qb to lay a stinker. i think fat boys d will confuse him into a couple of mistakes and the offense will limit bungals chances by pounding the rock. i like bills to win outright but will take the 3 which is more points than bills got at home against the pats, i like the bungals and all but im not ready to say they should be laying more road wood than the pats.. . 23-20 bills.
                                                                    minny -3 (-125) (1x).. i just cant leave the hook on this game even tho i dont think it will come into play, for 15 bucks extra on my $100 bet i just dont see the point in risking losing by it. that said once again i feel vikings being sold short by the books as this number several points low imo. forgetting about charles for a minute i already had minny as 2-3 points better than kc on a neutral field so i have a real hard time understanding why they only laying 3.5 at home? do they not have the standard 3 point home field adv? imo we still benefiting from that week 1 monday night ass kicking min got at the hands of the shitbag 49ers, ever since that game i been playing minny on what i felt were short home lines and getting too many points on the road and they been covering them all.

                                                                    from a x's and o's standpoint this game pretty simple. since zimmer has arrived the vikings pass d has been a improving unit, they will get after smith and force some bad decisions against a terrible kc oline, i dont expect kc to convert many 3rd downs as smith will be on his ass most the day. this where no charles does come into play, captain checkdown missing the best check down back in the league is gonna struggle. offensively this a great game for teddy b to have a nice day, off a bye week and facing a miserable kc secondary. i like wallace to pick up where he left off vs the donks and shred this defense (really cheap in dfs this week, he in a ton of my lineups as is the minny d). kc rush defense has been solid but ap is ap and will do what he does. vikings control this game wire to wire and teddy b makes all the plays to keep drives moving that smith will not. 24-17 vikings.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • 2daBank
                                                                      SBR Aristocracy
                                                                      • 01-26-09
                                                                      • 88966

                                                                      #314
                                                                      Originally posted by 2daBank
                                                                      Originally Posted by 2daBank
                                                                      pats/colts ov 55 (2x).. they cant make this total high enough imo. i said 56 above but that was just a guess where it was set, if im saying what i think these teams combine to score at the end of the night im going significantly higher. dont think either team has any problem cracking 30, my best guess is around 68-72 when the clock hits zero.. we know pats gonna score and continue to score here, after taking out the off season on everyone in their path they finally get the team that snitched them out. what you think they gonna do? they coming to prove a point and that point gets proven by brady throwing 5 tds.

                                                                      i dont expect for this to be the ass kicking many are calling for tho and here is why. i fully expect luck to play and i expect him to be the luck we all used to not the one from the 1st couple weeks. i actually think that luck's absence the last few weeks was really good for this team as they were forced to establish a offensive identity that wasnt having luck sit back and get killed with everything on his shoulders, this helps in several ways, obviously the fact they figured out they can in fact run the ball a little will help keep him protected and open up the play action shots down field, the other is i think it was good for him to see that his team can actually win games where he isnt doing everything (or anything at all in this case, lol). not only has gore became involved last week they got andre johnson going as well and all a sudden i think this offense is one all world qb away from looking like many envisioned when they were making these off season moves.

                                                                      neither defense is equipped to deal with these offenses. ratings gonna be insane. this has all the makings of everything the nfl wants and it gonna be a video game! luck has seen enough of hoodies defenses at this point and now he seeing it with more weapons at his disposal while the elite players from last years pats unit are gone. that all im gonna say, get ready cause even my old school defense liking ass is kinda excited for this one as i have a feeling it gonna be epic fun as colts unexpectedly give pats everything they can handle and this thing won by whoever has the ball last. 38-34 somebody (i think pats but i also feel like we ripe for a few absolute burials that kills ats, teasers, ml paralys, everything, it coming just dunno if it here)..


                                                                      bills+3 (1.5x).. this the first time this year i will be against the bungals, clearly i like cincy but this a bad spot for them coming off the big comeback over sea last week and going on road to face a bills team that matches up well...you can run on this cincy d and teams been doing it to the tune of 4.8 ypc, we all know rex's team is gonna run the football. id have rather seen carlos williams back however shady will play and between him dixon and herron i dont think bills will have much problem churning out yards on the ground. im not as worried about ej after talking with a few guys i respect from the buffalo area that all say he has made a lot of progress since last time he was starting games, he should have watkins back and cincy is banged up in the secondary. this play really comes down to me thinking while improved dalton current form just isnt sustainable and buf a good place for a qb to lay a stinker. i think fat boys d will confuse him into a couple of mistakes and the offense will limit bungals chances by pounding the rock. i like bills to win outright but will take the 3 which is more points than bills got at home against the pats, i like the bungals and all but im not ready to say they should be laying more road wood than the pats.. . 23-20 bills.


                                                                      minny -3 (-125) (1x).. i just cant leave the hook on this game even tho i dont think it will come into play, for 15 bucks extra on my $100 bet i just dont see the point in risking losing by it. that said once again i feel vikings being sold short by the books as this number several points low imo. forgetting about charles for a minute i already had minny as 2-3 points better than kc on a neutral field so i have a real hard time understanding why they only laying 3.5 at home? do they not have the standard 3 point home field adv? imo we still benefiting from that week 1 monday night ass kicking min got at the hands of the shitbag 49ers, ever since that game i been playing minny on what i felt were short home lines and getting too many points on the road and they been covering them all.

                                                                      from a x's and o's standpoint this game pretty simple. since zimmer has arrived the vikings pass d has been a improving unit, they will get after smith and force some bad decisions against a terrible kc oline, i dont expect kc to convert many 3rd downs as smith will be on his ass most the day. this where no charles does come into play, captain checkdown missing the best check down back in the league is gonna struggle. offensively this a great game for teddy b to have a nice day, off a bye week and facing a miserable kc secondary. i like wallace to pick up where he left off vs the donks and shred this defense (really cheap in dfs this week, he in a ton of my lineups as is the minny d). kc rush defense has been solid but ap is ap and will do what he does. vikings control this game wire to wire and teddy b makes all the plays to keep drives moving that smith will not. 24-17 vikings.
                                                                      hou/jags ov 43 (1x).. jags overs are starting to become a bit of a theme for me and i think for good reason as this offense continues to grow together. most likely no yeldon this week but robinson should be back and while he isnt the type of back yeldon is he is explosive. another week for thomas in the offense i think will continue to improve the jags red zone efficiency and i love the 2nd year wrs robinson and hurns...hou has thrown more passes than any team in the league and while i think that starts to change as foster gets back into the flow of things it certainly doesnt hurt here as the defense continues to be awful and forces the offense to air it out to hopkins. both defenses are beyond suspect at this point and dont think either team has any problems reaching 20 and beyond.. i was eyeing this total all week, my biggest concern is some fairly strong wind being forecast which is the only reason this just a 1x play. latest forecast shows less than 20mph tho so im willing to take a shot as i made this 46-47..
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • red12sox
                                                                        SBR MVP
                                                                        • 11-28-14
                                                                        • 1034

                                                                        #315
                                                                        Really like that jags over and minny. Good luck boss.
                                                                        Comment
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