-
Comment -
gonna have some time tonight so will try and have some thoughts and plays posted then. feel free to leave any thoughts/questions about gms and ill answer soon as im able.Comment -
My man Banker.
Tailed you on TEN/Colts Over and got the courage after your post to pull the trigger on ATL for 2x (my only 2 unit play of the year).
The three games I'm leaning at the moment:
Chicago +3 vs Oakland.
In my thread I talked a lot about how the public perception of these two teams are going in opposite direction and that usually means the max value in the spread. I'm not too concerned about the bears lost Allen and Bostic, as much as I am concerned that the team has quit this season. Otherwise I would love to fade Oakland on the road coming off another road win, going east coast. Is this a stay away? What if this line hits 3.5?
Tampa +3.5 (-120) vs Carolina
I really like dogs this week after back to back weeks where the public killed the books. With more money and confidence in their pockets, I think betting homedogs is where the values at this week but I'm not touching SF/GB. I can kinda see Tampa making this one a game, and Cam can't possibly keep winning every game as the only player on his offense can he?
Kansas City +4 vs Andy Dalton
Red Rifle come out hot last year 3-0 and then proceeded to play down to expectation. After KC got embarrassed on MNF, I'm thinking they can bounce back with a good game vs the Bungles. I think this line might go as high as 5, already trending towards +4.5.Comment -
in theory chi makes a lot of sense, problem is man are they terrible. No way would I have oak traveling east again for another early start and now favs, that said I just don't know I have the stomach to play on the Bears. I'll def look at the over but that would prob be only play I would consider there.
Def agree w Tampa and will most likely be a play for me. Cam does have the added bonus of a strong defense but I really like the idea of getting points against them as I think majority of their games will be played close.
It so hard going against cincy at home, they flat out win and cover spreads there and honestly the kc defense has been suspect as hell. If anything I think line short cause I'd make cincy -3 on a neutral field and I give them 3.5 for HF so to me it cincy or nothing even if I do agree kc will prob give better effort they just don't scare anyone outside the hashmarks w smith unable to threaten deep.Comment -
Gotta play Baltimore, no? I understand it's on the road but Baltimore went into Pitt last year in the playoffs and pulled out the W. Vick looked awful against the lambs and Flacco has the arm strength to tear up a questionable steelers secondary whereas foles and his weapons didnt. I also think you have to factor in Tucker vs Scobee, a top 5 kicker vs probably the worst starting kicker in the league. I see Ravens winning by at least a FGComment -
What does balty have on outside to tear up any secondary tho? They are a 50 year old and nothing else, I just can't bet on that. Honestly it a pass for me, I've always hated these thu night gms and think I'm gonna start passing unless I really see a edge and a terrible Ravens offense laying points doesn't feel strong to me.Comment -
week 4
bungals -4 (2x)..i cannot resist this team at home as they been covering machines for years. dalton thus far has played great and while i dont completely trust him he has been good at home and in the reg season throughout his career. lets be real even bad dalton is no worse than alex stinking smith and the cast cincy has around the ginger is second to nobody in the league. short and simple, i make cincy 3 points better on a neutral field and i give them 3.5 to 4 for HF as i think they have earned that so that is how i have weighted in the last several years. by my math that makes this line short as i have cincy in the -6.5 to -7 range and i think that what they win by here as the ginger continues what everyone been doing and chewing up this secondary. 27-20 bungals.Comment -
jags/colts ov 48 (1.5x).. they have a history of playing under here and that fine, supposedly trends supported a under in ten as well last week. i think colts offense will continue to improve as ty gets healthy and they get gore involved more, their problem is defense and i just dont see anything from them that leads me to believe jags cant score. whether jags scoring to be competitive or in garbage time it all the same to me,. i like luck and co to break 30 again here and have no problem trusting jags to give us 20+ against a colts d allowing 6 yards per play not exactly against offensive powerhouses..
lean to the over in chi as both defenses allow over 6 ypp, potential weather concerns (wind/rain) and fact i could see both teams rushing a ton have me hesitant.Comment -
not concerned with luck's shoulder problem?Comment -
Eagles bankerComment -
Oakland favored for the first time in 27 games which makes me want to lean towards Chicago at home but they are just straight up bad. I also like the Tampa play. Line opened up at 2.5 and moved to 3/3.5 with about 84% of money going to Carolina. Fade the public and take Famous Jameis for the W.Comment -
Man they teasing us with Cutler being back this week. If Cutler is back with Jeffry, I would take +3 all day with the Bears hosting Oakland. Debating betting this line early at +3 cause if he's confirmed and the line shifts there goes the value. If it hits 3.5 before the news then I'm in on it either way.
As for tonight Bank, Baltimore is the play. I've watched Vick for close to 15 years now, and it doesn't matter how many weapons the Steelers have if he can't stretch the field. Dude misses open guys, throws horrible picks, and takes the worst sacks. And that was when he was still playing two years ago.
You did talk me out of KC tho. Stay away game for me now.Comment -
I go to a Packers bar every weekend (my buddy is from WI and I don't have a home team) and it never amazes me how much packer fans enjoy the singing "The Bears still suck song".Comment -
i just cant lay points in this series and damn sure not when ravens worse than ever. didnt pit beat these guys with that one clown last time ben was hurt? forget his name, black dude who used to play for jags? vick better than him. i just cant do it. to me it the dog or nothing but im just staying away so hope im wrong..Comment -
i agree with bears but just dont think i can pull trigger and have my money on that hack from nd. really like the over but i saw a good chance of wind and rain, combine that with fact i think both teams will be able to run and ill probably pass unless weather forecast improves.. all that said and despite fact i been kinda high on oak and like what they doing i just dont feel they should be favs in this spot so i do think bears the right play.
hopefully im right and save you some money with that one (not to mention make some of my own
) . i just dont know how cincy isnt several points better on neutral? most weeks im wondering if their overall talent is enough to compensate for having the lessor qb, in this case dalton actually better than alex smith so i have no problem saying cincy is at least 3 points better and i have no 2nd thoughts about how ive adjusted bungals home field the last few years as it has proven to be the right call imo.
Comment -
Heh 2daBank! I'm new to this thread and I must say your analysis are REALLY interresting! I love reading them!
What are your though on the early NYJ/MIA match? I was leaning toward NYJ...Comment -
thanks for the kind words and welcome to the thread. far as that goofy london game goes i really dont like getting involved cause i think it hard enough capping this shit w/o having to worry about the numerous outside factors that come with them playing across the pond.
strictly from a matchup perspective im pretty stubborn and still think phins the better team so i have a hard time saying they not the play at plus money. im actually tempted to play them despite my dislike of the venue. my thing is this defense was pretty damn good last year, their biggest weakness was i thought you could pound the rock on them, one would think that fat fukker they brought in for all that money would rectify that. obviously that hasnt been the case thus far but i still feel it a little early to just assume they will not be good. i was on jets the 1st 2 weeks so didnt surprise me they started well, that said it still ryan fitzpatrick under center and he still sucks! dude been a turnover machine his whole career and i doubt that has magically changed at this point. why has phins defense been so bad? i really dont know but im not ready to say this who they are when they added one of the best defensive tackles in the game to a unit i really liked last season. i just dont buy they all a sudden cannot generate pressure. maybe im being stubborn but bottom line is i think fish better so much like tonight where i couldnt lay points with balty when i know pit is the better team i feel much the same here, there just no way do i feel jets should be favs just like i didnt feel they should have been last week. i love good defensive teams with strong run games but i love them when they dogs, laying any number with that kind of team in this day and age is not wise imo.Comment -
so glad i didnt touch this thu night shitfest. you guys on ravens outta send thank you cards to the kicker and to tomlin. lolComment -
id be so pissed if i played pit, not gonna lie i threw a little on bs tease and about lost that needing the over 38 cause that damn kicker so im glad balty tied it. i feel for anyone who bet pit tho, they were the right side and basically lead throughout. shit coaching and a terrible kicker cost the right side the win..typical thu night. pretty good chance i continue not playing them as i think they a joke really.Comment -
Ugly shit gm honestly but you are right bout thurdays Bank they always play out a bit extra weird and seem to go with script of some kind lol. Flacco 2 bonehead turnovers, passing up easy fg, by Balty made it uglier. All in all I sloppy gm with no flow but Ravens moved ball at will too many times and shot themselves to say better team didn't win. Pitt never got ground gm established or any kind of offensive rhythem, defense looked horrible most drives and "escaped". Not pretty gm to watch but close enough anyone with "vested" interest could not turn off. Win for network more than anyone as usual lol
Comment -
Well I was wrong about Vick, he looked better than expected, which is to say no turnovers is small miracle. Def felt like I was on the wrong side of the game, but these road favorites have been covering short lines all year in prime time. Something's gotta give eventually, but I'm riding the chalk until it does.Comment -
minny+7 (2x).. try not to have more than one side and/or total a week with a 2x play but what can i say i like this a lot and jumped on cincy early in the week with 2x. id be lying if i didnt say i lose more than i dont going against pizza boy, i do as he or this year more accurately his defense beat me like a rented mule time and again! that said lets be clear here donks are not that good, the defense yes is very good but peyton and the offense are avg at best. ill say it 1000x that kubiacs scheme and peyton dont mesh, they have made some concessions but ultimately they have not been scoring all that much and they have faced 3 woeful opponents who before yesterday were a combined 1-8 and who's defenses been getting torched on a reg basis.
Originally Posted by 2daBank 
week 4
bungals -4 (2x)..i cannot resist this team at home as they been covering machines for years. dalton thus far has played great and while i dont completely trust him he has been good at home and in the reg season throughout his career. lets be real even bad dalton is no worse than alex stinking smith and the cast cincy has around the ginger is second to nobody in the league. short and simple, i make cincy 3 points better on a neutral field and i give them 3.5 to 4 for HF as i think they have earned that so that is how i have weighted in the last several years. by my math that makes this line short as i have cincy in the -6.5 to -7 range and i think that what they win by here as the ginger continues what everyone been doing and chewing up this secondary. 27-20 bungals.
jags/colts ov 48 (1.5x).. they have a history of playing under here and that fine, supposedly trends supported a under in ten as well last week. i think colts offense will continue to improve as ty gets healthy and they get gore involved more, their problem is defense and i just dont see anything from them that leads me to believe jags cant score. whether jags scoring to be competitive or in garbage time it all the same to me,. i like luck and co to break 30 again here and have no problem trusting jags to give us 20+ against a colts d allowing 6 yards per play not exactly against offensive powerhouses..
lean to the over in chi as both defenses allow over 6 ypp, potential weather concerns (wind/rain) and fact i could see both teams rushing a ton have me hesitant.
make no mistake minny will be the best team donks have faced to date and i dont think it debatable. while im 1st to admit the donks d is very good consider they much better teeing off on passing games than they are stopping a physical run gm as their strengths are getting to the passer and running sideline to sideline. look past the defense gaudy yards per rush numbers and realize they have faced a balty team who new oc just discovered they had a run gm yesterday (and they were still out rushed by them), a det team who's play calling consist of having their bum qb taking shotgun snaps and throwing more than anyone, making them basically a sitting duck for this d to tee off. then there was kc who rushed for over 5 ypc and for the most part controlled that thu night gm and that was with the least feared qb in the league under center so we know donks were every bit in full blown stop the run mode in that gm as they possibly can be. that fact alone should make anyone saying "all they have to do is key on ap" worry, 1st off we have seen a team everyone knows is gonna run in fact run all over them, 2nd while teddy b hasnt looked great i still believe he a more dangerous and less mistake prone passer than alex smith who terrible and of course turned it over several times as did charles in a gm kc wins if they played clean. minny is a better coached, qb'ed, and more physical team than kc who physically controlled den.
i strongly believe min is exactly the kind of offense donks dont wanna see and it been proven you can run on them even if they expecting it. kc has great backs no doubt but does anyone think ap isnt better and more physical than charles? this donks d was built to play for the old peyton who went up several scores on everyone and they were forced to pass. the new peyton and this offense truth is they couldnt get out to big leads on any of the 3 teams (with combined 1 win coming into this weekend) they have played thus far and minny plays more sound d and makes less mistakes than them all. i think vikings give a overrated donks team everything they want and in all honesty like them to pull the upset, that said i made this line more like 3.5-4 so ill happily take the 7 with a team i feel is donks toughest match up to date.Comment -
phins ml +105 (1x).. i really have no explanation for this one as i admit it mostly just gut and hesitant at that considering how terrible i believe the coaching staff is (doesnt help i respect jets new coaching as much as i dislike mia). i just cant get off my feelings of what this defense is capable of and should be, maybe it foolish and im being too stubborn on a team that hasnt really cost me anything (other than my fantasies teams where i drafted this d, lol). maybe the trip to london what they need, fish certainly one of the few teams it doesnt really screw giving away a home gm since they suck at home anyways. other than being wrong bout fish d along with most the world i do feel ive had the jets pretty well pegged betting them the 1st 2 and leaning philly last week. bottom line if your defense ever gonna get right playing a bum like fitzpatrick is the time. we saw fitzmagic at its best last week when the run gm wasnt there to help, ivory might be back but he banged up and not the kind of guy that performs when hurt imo. really like the spot for this d to get right against a beat up team w a turnover prone qb, maybe they dont and continue to suck but i think the talent is there to give them a shot at plus money before i bury them. Originally Posted by 2daBank
week 4
bungals -4 (2x)..i cannot resist this team at home as they been covering machines for years. dalton thus far has played great and while i dont completely trust him he has been good at home and in the reg season throughout his career. lets be real even bad dalton is no worse than alex stinking smith and the cast cincy has around the ginger is second to nobody in the league. short and simple, i make cincy 3 points better on a neutral field and i give them 3.5 to 4 for HF as i think they have earned that so that is how i have weighted in the last several years. by my math that makes this line short as i have cincy in the -6.5 to -7 range and i think that what they win by here as the ginger continues what everyone been doing and chewing up this secondary. 27-20 bungals.
jags/colts ov 48 (1.5x).. they have a history of playing under here and that fine, supposedly trends supported a under in ten as well last week. i think colts offense will continue to improve as ty gets healthy and they get gore involved more, their problem is defense and i just dont see anything from them that leads me to believe jags cant score. whether jags scoring to be competitive or in garbage time it all the same to me,. i like luck and co to break 30 again here and have no problem trusting jags to give us 20+ against a colts d allowing 6 yards per play not exactly against offensive powerhouses..
minny+7 (2x).. try not to have more than one side and/or total a week with a 2x play but what can i say i like this a lot and jumped on cincy early in the week with 2x. id be lying if i didnt say i lose more than i dont going against pizza boy, i do as he or this year more accurately his defense beat me like a rented mule time and again! that said lets be clear here donks are not that good, the defense yes is very good but peyton and the offense are avg at best. ill say it 1000x that kubiacs scheme and peyton dont mesh, they have made some concessions but ultimately they have not been scoring all that much and they have faced 3 woeful opponents who before yesterday were a combined 1-8 and who's defenses been getting torched on a reg basis.
make no mistake minny will be the best team donks have faced to date and i dont think it debatable. while im 1st to admit the donks d is very good consider they much better teeing off on passing games than they are stopping a physical run gm as their strengths are getting to the passer and running sideline to sideline. look past the defense gaudy yards per rush numbers and realize they have faced a balty team who new oc just discovered they had a run gm yesterday (and they were still out rushed by them), a det team who's play calling consist of having their bum qb taking shotgun snaps and throwing more than anyone, making them basically a sitting duck for this d to tee off. then there was kc who rushed for over 5 ypc and for the most part controlled that thu night gm and that was with the least feared qb in the league under center so we know donks were every bit in full blown stop the run mode in that gm as they possibly can be. that fact alone should make anyone saying "all they have to do is key on ap" worry, 1st off we have seen a team everyone knows is gonna run in fact run all over them, 2nd while teddy b hasnt looked great i still believe he a more dangerous and less mistake prone passer than alex smith who terrible and of course turned it over several times as did charles in a gm kc wins if they played clean. minny is a better coached, qb'ed, and more physical team than kc who physically controlled den.
i strongly believe min is exactly the kind of offense donks dont wanna see and it been proven you can run on them even if they expecting it. kc has great backs no doubt but does anyone think ap isnt better and more physical than charles? this donks d was built to play for the old peyton who went up several scores on everyone and they were forced to pass. the new peyton and this offense truth is they couldnt get out to big leads on any of the 3 teams (with combined 1 win coming into this weekend) they have played thus far and minny plays more sound d and makes less mistakes than them all. i think vikings give a overrated donks team everything they want and in all honesty like them to pull the upset, that said i made this line more like 3.5-4 so ill happily take the 7 with a team i feel is donks toughest match up to date.Comment -
sf +7.5 (1.5x).. ive talked about this gm several places this morning so kinda out of energy. really comes down to a couple things, 1st and foremost what kap has done to this gb defense over the years, pack basically the reason he the franchise qb, i think he will see this team and put last weeks disaster out of his head in a hurry as him and hyde should abuse pack on the ground. gb is banged up and simply not the same force on the road and they coming into sf to face a team that been embarrassed b2b weeks. nobody is as good or bad as everyone thinks in this league and i strongly believe sf while looking miserable are much closer to middle of the pack than bottom feeders. more than a td at candlestick with a niner team that has more than enough incentive to show some pride this week. i think they will as kap and the run game go toe to toe with gb in what i think a fairly high scoring affair (lean over as well), lets call it 28-27 gb.Comment -
Love SF, a FG wins it
Comment
