Cheme82's CBB plays for November

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  • chilidog
    SBR Posting Legend
    • 04-05-09
    • 10305

    #1156
    Originally posted by Gtownguy487
    Wyoming +6 or Warriors +15

    Which would be the better bet??
    I've had Wyoming +6 all day long, but I haven't ran the NBA yet, so I dunno what I'll have. Give me about 30 more minutes, then I'll post what I'm going with.

    Originally posted by impper
    Of course we know that for a teaser to win both games have to hit. At .725, the chance of both games to hit is .524, and all other outcomes are .476. Buying past 3 and 7 gives the games (according to the calculator, at least) somewhere in the realm of .745-.760. If we assume that on average the chance is .75, the chance for our teaser to hit is .563
    Gotcha now. The whole reason why cheme did so well in nfl/cfb with the calculator is because he was able to buy 1/2 points so cheap, as well as do CPs. While I have reduced juice with my locals, I can't buy 1/2 points for the same price as I do in hoops, and I can't do CPs. Anyway, it worked so well for him because he was able to push past the 3 and 7, for a pretty cheap. So, if we can somehow replicate that, even by taking 6 point teasers, then that's a very good thing.
    Comment
    • impper
      SBR Sharp
      • 11-11-10
      • 490

      #1157
      Originally posted by Gtownguy487
      I lost my ass yesterday on Boston and Colts.. ABout 1 grand to be exact.

      I have 150 left and i need your wisdom Chili...

      Will u tell me what you would do if you were me?
      If I were you, I'd practice better BR management!
      Comment
      • impper
        SBR Sharp
        • 11-11-10
        • 490

        #1158
        Gotcha now. The whole reason why cheme did so well in nfl/cfb with the calculator is because he was able to buy 1/2 points so cheap, as well as do CPs. While I have reduced juice with my locals, I can't buy 1/2 points for the same price as I do in hoops, and I can't do CPs. Anyway, it worked so well for him because he was able to push past the 3 and 7, for a pretty cheap. So, if we can somehow replicate that, even by taking 6 point teasers, then that's a very good thing.
        Yes. Betus KILLS you if you buy points in the nfl, but their 6 pt teaser rates are very reasonable. I have to imagine if you kill them they'll just stop allowing teasers, but who knows.
        Comment
        • jpot34
          SBR MVP
          • 04-24-07
          • 1391

          #1159
          Originally posted by Gtownguy487
          I lost my ass yesterday on Boston and Colts.. ABout 1 grand to be exact.

          I have 150 left and i need your wisdom Chili...

          Will u tell me what you would do if you were me?




          Reduce your bet size, and follow these guys to the T.
          Comment
          • impper
            SBR Sharp
            • 11-11-10
            • 490

            #1160
            Also there's another wrinkle in that Pinnacle still offers leans on the games, so it's possible (perhaps) that you could also get an edge by teasing past 7 and 10. This one is a lot more tenuous though, it might also be that you also need to get a better line than pinnacle is offering
            Comment
            • chilidog
              SBR Posting Legend
              • 04-05-09
              • 10305

              #1161
              Originally posted by Gtownguy487
              I lost my ass yesterday on Boston and Colts.. ABout 1 grand to be exact.

              I have 150 left and i need your wisdom Chili...

              Will u tell me what you would do if you were me?
              Hmmm. Wait a little bit, and I'll post my NBA plays. I'm not guarantee that they'll win or anything, because we all having losing days. I put the unit amounts after the pick. Assuming you can buy the 3 points, play the picks, and cross your fingers. I don't know yet how many plays there will be. Set $5 as your unit amount, and play them 'to risk'. With 11 games on the board, there should be anywhere from 6-9 plays, with the average bet ranging from 2.5 - 3 units.

              Personally, that's what I would do, but that's me. I'm comfortable with my level of risk, and mine might be different than yours. That being said, please don't blame me if we happen to have a losing night. It does happen - even though yesterday we had a 20+ unit day.
              Comment
              • impper
                SBR Sharp
                • 11-11-10
                • 490

                #1162
                Okay, and now this is going to sound silly, but there are also edges to be had by buying past 3, 7, and 10 with 8 point teaser. I imagine that any teaser combo where you can cross key numbers while keeping the teaser as low as possible is ideal. So a number like 2, 2.5, 7.5, 8, 10.5, etc. is ideal. Basically go for 3 and 7, but there is also an edge at 10.5. The key is to cross 3
                Comment
                • Gtownguy487
                  SBR Wise Guy
                  • 02-21-08
                  • 539

                  #1163
                  I wont blame u, at this point im all ears... if im on 146.62 what should my unit size be? I got on tilt yesterday after losing a grand and put $300 on 1H Boston -3 and $300 Boston to win game -3, $300 on Colts $100 on Georgetown ML...and I also made a bet this morning on $250 Lakers -1.
                  Comment
                  • chilidog
                    SBR Posting Legend
                    • 04-05-09
                    • 10305

                    #1164
                    Originally posted by impper

                    If I were you, I'd practice better BR management!
                    Heh, those were my thoughts exactly. There's no way I'd put $500 each on a game (with no mathematical edge backing up the play), unless my bankroll was quite large.

                    Originally posted by impper

                    Yes. Betus KILLS you if you buy points in the nfl, but their 6 pt teaser rates are very reasonable. I have to imagine if you kill them they'll just stop allowing teasers, but who knows.
                    I haven't really heard of books not allowing teasers. I suppose that anything is possible, but parlays and teasers are pretty much known as sucker bets. Maybe we're just really lucky suckers?

                    Originally posted by jpot34

                    Reduce your bet size, and follow these guys to the T.


                    At least on the part about reducing your bet size. It always makes me nervous when people just blindly tail me. That's why I quit posting my plays at one point, then another poster told me via PM that we're all adults here, and I'm not holding a gun to anybody's head, and we should all accept the possibility of a losing day. So there ya go, tail at your own risk. I had a 4 day losing streak last week, followed by a massive winning streak. I hope to continue that winning streak tonight, now that I've got the times locked down to do the math, as well as what lines/spreads to pay attention to.

                    Originally posted by impper
                    Also there's another wrinkle in that Pinnacle still offers leans on the games, so it's possible (perhaps) that you could also get an edge by teasing past 7 and 10. This one is a lot more tenuous though, it might also be that you also need to get a better line than pinnacle is offering
                    The main issue that I have with playing teasers with this is that we don't know the best way to pair up the games. We both know that a 4% game will lose just as easily as a 2% game will. True, it doesn't happen as often, but it still happens. That's the part that concerns me.
                    Comment
                    • phillybadboy
                      SBR Hall of Famer
                      • 12-11-09
                      • 9383

                      #1165
                      Originally posted by jolmscheid
                      HEY chili and imp I only was on philly and butler last nite which both won...but how come you guys had way more plays? You still only doing the -108+ lobby leans?
                      what are lobby leans?
                      Comment
                      • impper
                        SBR Sharp
                        • 11-11-10
                        • 490

                        #1166
                        Your unit size should be somewhere in the range of $1.5. Most plays using my formula end up being 2.5-3.5 units
                        Comment
                        • impper
                          SBR Sharp
                          • 11-11-10
                          • 490

                          #1167
                          The main issue that I have with playing teasers with this is that we don't know the best way to pair up the games. We both know that a 4% game will lose just as easily as a 2% game will. True, it doesn't happen as often, but it still happens. That's the part that concerns me.
                          I'd say go with 2-team teasers and round robin the games. There shouldn't be more than 4-5 games using this method anyway.
                          Comment
                          • chilidog
                            SBR Posting Legend
                            • 04-05-09
                            • 10305

                            #1168
                            Originally posted by impper
                            Okay, and now this is going to sound silly, but there are also edges to be had by buying past 3, 7, and 10 with 8 point teaser. I imagine that any teaser combo where you can cross key numbers while keeping the teaser as low as possible is ideal. So a number like 2, 2.5, 7.5, 8, 10.5, etc. is ideal. Basically go for 3 and 7, but there is also an edge at 10.5. The key is to cross 3
                            Of course, I completely agree on that, but I mentioned in my last post my thoughts on teasers. I don't know how to group them.

                            Originally posted by Gtownguy487
                            I wont blame u, at this point im all ears... if im on 146.62 what should my unit size be? I got on tilt yesterday after losing a grand and put $300 on 1H Boston -3 and $300 Boston to win game -3, $300 on Colts $100 on Georgetown ML...and I also made a bet this morning on $250 Lakers -1.
                            Set your unit size at $5, and play the picks 'to risk'. If I have a pick at 2.5 units, then you'll risk $12.50 to win $7.35, assuming you're buying 3 points for -170. Do not play the picks straight up, you have to buy the 3 points to be at the spreads posted.

                            I'm gonna run the numbers now, brb
                            Comment
                            • impper
                              SBR Sharp
                              • 11-11-10
                              • 490

                              #1169
                              Also, according to the calculator this will NOT work in college football, as the games end on -3 so much less often (66% as much as in the nfl)
                              Comment
                              • chilidog
                                SBR Posting Legend
                                • 04-05-09
                                • 10305

                                #1170
                                Originally posted by impper
                                Your unit size should be somewhere in the range of $1.5. Most plays using my formula end up being 2.5-3.5 units
                                Yah, I normally go with 0.5% of bankroll as my unit size, but by doing that with his bankroll, that'd be like 75 cents a unit, and most books have a $5 minimum bet, so that's why I suggested $5 as the unit size. It's up to him what he wants to do.

                                Originally posted by impper

                                I'd say go with 2-team teasers and round robin the games. There shouldn't be more than 4-5 games using this method anyway.
                                Ahh, didn't think of round robins
                                Comment
                                • slimpickins
                                  SBR Wise Guy
                                  • 08-12-10
                                  • 891

                                  #1171
                                  this is what I just got in NBA
                                  Spurs -5 1.0 edge = 2.41 units
                                  Raptors +5 .5 edge = 1.71 units
                                  Trail Blazers +8.5 .34 edge = 1.49 units
                                  Warriors +12 .15 edge = 1.21 units

                                  Is that the same as you Chili?
                                  Comment
                                  • Romanov
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 10-08-10
                                    • 4137

                                    #1172
                                    I was hoping to see the pacers on your list for tonight. damn
                                    Comment
                                    • chilidog
                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                      • 04-05-09
                                      • 10305

                                      #1173
                                      NBA
                                      Washington +6 2.8u
                                      Chicago +5 2.6u
                                      San Antonio -5 4u
                                      Utah -3 2.4u (don't buy points on this one)
                                      Phoenix -2 3.9u
                                      Golden State +12 2.8u

                                      GL!
                                      Comment
                                      • Gtownguy487
                                        SBR Wise Guy
                                        • 02-21-08
                                        • 539

                                        #1174
                                        Is my Lakers bet pretty solid? I know theres no such thing as a Lock however wanted to get a few of your opinion since this thread is quite active
                                        Comment
                                        • impper
                                          SBR Sharp
                                          • 11-11-10
                                          • 490

                                          #1175
                                          Lakers at -1 have a nice edge. No telling how it'll play out though.
                                          Comment
                                          • Gtownguy487
                                            SBR Wise Guy
                                            • 02-21-08
                                            • 539

                                            #1176
                                            And your ncaab what were unit sizes on those?
                                            Comment
                                            • ghost xx
                                              SBR High Roller
                                              • 08-26-10
                                              • 170

                                              #1177
                                              Thanks Chili!

                                              Maybe you can help me turn it around.
                                              Comment
                                              • slimpickins
                                                SBR Wise Guy
                                                • 08-12-10
                                                • 891

                                                #1178
                                                chili, I assume I am doing something wrong since I ran the NBA games about the same time as you?
                                                our books lines shouldn't matter as I just plugged -170 in after moving 3 points?
                                                Comment
                                                • impper
                                                  SBR Sharp
                                                  • 11-11-10
                                                  • 490

                                                  #1179
                                                  Your books line does matter since you enter -170 at the line you're getting at your book. e.g.:

                                                  if pinny has +9

                                                  your book has +9

                                                  you enter the -170 at +12

                                                  if pinny has +9

                                                  your book has +9.5

                                                  you enter the -170 at +12.5
                                                  Comment
                                                  • Gtownguy487
                                                    SBR Wise Guy
                                                    • 02-21-08
                                                    • 539

                                                    #1180
                                                    Dec 10 07:05 PM EST - Basketball NBA - 802 Washington Wizards +6 buying 2½ points -160 for Game
                                                    14.00 USD 8.75 USD
                                                    Dec 10 08:05 PM EST - Basketball NBA - 812 Chicago Bulls +5 buying 2 points -150 for Game
                                                    13.00 USD 8.67 USD
                                                    Dec 10 08:35 PM EST - Basketball NBA - 816 San Antonio Spurs -5 buying 3 points -170 for Game
                                                    20.00 USD 11.76 USD
                                                    Dec 10 09:05 PM EST - Basketball NBA - 818 Utah Jazz -3 buying ½ points -120 for Game
                                                    12.00 USD 10.00 USD
                                                    Dec 10 09:05 PM EST - Basketball NBA - 820 Phoenix Suns -2 buying 3½ points -195 for Game
                                                    19.50 USD 10.00 USD
                                                    Dec 10 10:35 PM EST - Basketball NBA - 822 Golden State Warriors +12 buying 2 points -150 for Game
                                                    14.00 USD 9.33 USD
                                                    6 Straight(s) 92.50 USD 58.51 USD


                                                    Also do you feel comfortable still with ur ncaa picks and what are the units sizes?
                                                    Comment
                                                    • Romanov
                                                      SBR MVP
                                                      • 10-08-10
                                                      • 4137

                                                      #1181
                                                      Booked Chili's except for the Jazz, I tacked on a little extra cash onto the others instead of the Jazz

                                                      Lets do this!
                                                      Comment
                                                      • slimpickins
                                                        SBR Wise Guy
                                                        • 08-12-10
                                                        • 891

                                                        #1182
                                                        impper, I did do that but the lines at my book were all identical to pinny when I ran the numbers
                                                        a couple were different earlier in the day, but at this time they are all the same.
                                                        I just meant that they are all -110 / -110 and -170 if buying the 3 pts.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • slimpickins
                                                          SBR Wise Guy
                                                          • 08-12-10
                                                          • 891

                                                          #1183
                                                          I used SBRodds for the live pinny lines.
                                                          Is that what you guys do or do you go to pinnacle's site for more accurate/up to date lines?
                                                          Comment
                                                          • chilidog
                                                            SBR Posting Legend
                                                            • 04-05-09
                                                            • 10305

                                                            #1184
                                                            Originally posted by ghost xx
                                                            Thanks Chili!

                                                            Maybe you can help me turn it around.


                                                            I hope I can continue on this winning streak.


                                                            Originally posted by slimpickins
                                                            chili, I assume I am doing something wrong since I ran the NBA games about the same time as you?
                                                            our books lines shouldn't matter as I just plugged -170 in after moving 3 points?
                                                            Nah, you're doing it right. I buy 3 points for -165 with my locals, so I do the math at -165.

                                                            Originally posted by Gtownguy487
                                                            Dec 10 07:05 PM EST - Basketball NBA - 802 Washington Wizards +6 buying 2½ points -160 for Game
                                                            14.00 USD 8.75 USD
                                                            Dec 10 08:05 PM EST - Basketball NBA - 812 Chicago Bulls +5 buying 2 points -150 for Game
                                                            13.00 USD 8.67 USD
                                                            Dec 10 08:35 PM EST - Basketball NBA - 816 San Antonio Spurs -5 buying 3 points -170 for Game
                                                            20.00 USD 11.76 USD
                                                            Dec 10 09:05 PM EST - Basketball NBA - 818 Utah Jazz -3 buying ½ points -120 for Game
                                                            12.00 USD 10.00 USD
                                                            Dec 10 09:05 PM EST - Basketball NBA - 820 Phoenix Suns -2 buying 3½ points -195 for Game
                                                            19.50 USD 10.00 USD
                                                            Dec 10 10:35 PM EST - Basketball NBA - 822 Golden State Warriors +12 buying 2 points -150 for Game
                                                            14.00 USD 9.33 USD
                                                            6 Straight(s) 92.50 USD 58.51 USD

                                                            Also do you feel comfortable still with ur ncaa picks and what are the units sizes?
                                                            Yup, I feel good about the cbb picks. I have Siena -2.5 for 2.7 units, and Wyoming +6 for 2.5u.

                                                            Originally posted by Romanov
                                                            Booked Chili's except for the Jazz, I tacked on a little extra cash onto the others instead of the Jazz

                                                            Lets do this!
                                                            Utah had an edge in the calc just because the line is at -113, and I get it at -105.

                                                            Originally posted by slimpickins
                                                            impper, I did do that but the lines at my book were all identical to pinny when I ran the numbers
                                                            a couple were different earlier in the day, but at this time they are all the same.
                                                            I just meant that they are all -110 / -110 and -170 if buying the 3 pts.
                                                            What you'll find frustrating is that you could run the numbers 3 times in 3 hours and get different plays. Usually, those are excellent middle opportunities. I love it when both plays hit on the same game
                                                            Comment
                                                            • Gtownguy487
                                                              SBR Wise Guy
                                                              • 02-21-08
                                                              • 539

                                                              #1185
                                                              Dec 10 10:00 PM EST - Basketball NCAA - 827 Wyoming +6 buying 3 points -170 for Game
                                                              18.42 USD 10.84 USD
                                                              1 Straight(s) 18.42 USD 10.84 USD
                                                              Comment
                                                              • chilidog
                                                                SBR Posting Legend
                                                                • 04-05-09
                                                                • 10305

                                                                #1186
                                                                Originally posted by slimpickins
                                                                I used SBRodds for the live pinny lines.
                                                                Is that what you guys do or do you go to pinnacle's site for more accurate/up to date lines?
                                                                Yah, I use sbrodds as well, but because I use locals and get 3 points at -165, and I'm sure sometimes I have different spreads than you guys do, my plays will differ. I've been tracking something that should give us a perfect consensus on what the plays will be, and so far this week, it's been working out really well. I'm just posting the plays that I bet for now, I'll go into more detail on it later.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • chilidog
                                                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                                                  • 04-05-09
                                                                  • 10305

                                                                  #1187
                                                                  Originally posted by Gtownguy487
                                                                  Is my Lakers bet pretty solid? I know theres no such thing as a Lock however wanted to get a few of your opinion since this thread is quite active
                                                                  Chicago +5 has the edge, but who knows, it could lose, or both bets could win. Good luck either way!

                                                                  Originally posted by impper
                                                                  Lakers at -1 have a nice edge. No telling how it'll play out though.
                                                                  Yah, but your lucky ass has those weird lines at betus. My book has it at lakers -2, which made chicago +5 the play.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • chilidog
                                                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                                                    • 04-05-09
                                                                    • 10305

                                                                    #1188
                                                                    Originally posted by Gtownguy487
                                                                    Dec 10 10:00 PM EST - Basketball NCAA - 827 Wyoming +6 buying 3 points -170 for Game
                                                                    18.42 USD 10.84 USD
                                                                    1 Straight(s) 18.42 USD 10.84 USD
                                                                    GL on your plays tonight!!
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • slimpickins
                                                                      SBR Wise Guy
                                                                      • 08-12-10
                                                                      • 891

                                                                      #1189
                                                                      sounds good, thanks for explaining that Chili
                                                                      I am just playing Spurs and Warriors under this system since our games matched on those 2 even if the numbers didn't.
                                                                      Spurs to win 250 and Warriors 125
                                                                      We different on Port/PHX so I am not playing that one.

                                                                      I had already played TOR earlier in the day and have other bets in NBA already booked on
                                                                      MIN -3 and IND first half -3.5

                                                                      check back tomorrow or late night to see how it goes, thanks for holding my hand all.
                                                                      I hope I can contribute more to the thread moving forward
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • Gtownguy487
                                                                        SBR Wise Guy
                                                                        • 02-21-08
                                                                        • 539

                                                                        #1190
                                                                        Thanks a lot chili and thanks everyone else who has helped
                                                                        Comment
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