Sweet...RebateWager just moved their line to -9 for the heat and I got in on the Heat for -5.5...Hopefully a good thing!
Cheme82's CBB plays for November
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jolmscheidRestricted User
- 02-20-10
- 3256
#1121Comment -
impperSBR Sharp
- 11-11-10
- 490
#1122Heat -5.5 should have some value as the Warriors are only -107 at +9 right nowComment -
chilidogSBR Posting Legend
- 04-05-09
- 10305
#1123those plays all look good to meComment -
pokerwhiz90SBR MVP
- 10-02-10
- 2618
#1124i put 4 units on each, lets hope for another 60% dayComment -
impperSBR Sharp
- 11-11-10
- 490
#112678% of the public is on Denver and yet the line moves from -2.5 to -2
Looks like Toronto could be a good play. I'll watch what it does throughout the dayComment -
btdSBR Sharp
- 08-18-08
- 455
#1127Congrats on a great nite, will follow and maybe tail some picksComment -
pokerwhiz90SBR MVP
- 10-02-10
- 2618
#1128is toronto playing at home? the books always play rlm on toronto's lines when a superstar is visiting because they like to go out and party supposedlyComment -
chilidogSBR Posting Legend
- 04-05-09
- 10305
#1130Easy enough to determine with the calculator. While we might get similar plays, our edges will rarely ever be the same.
Take the plays, look up the line/spread at pinny and at your book, and plug that data into the calculator, and it'll tell you your edge, or if you don't have one at all.Comment -
pokerwhiz90SBR MVP
- 10-02-10
- 2618
#1131yeah i know all the steps but whenever i look at the results, my edges never get larger than 1.5%... and ive gone through hundredsComment -
chilidogSBR Posting Legend
- 04-05-09
- 10305
#1132An edge is an edge. If the calc shows an edge of 1.5%, you'd bet 3.1 units on it, using impper's formula. 1+ (edge * 1.41). Recalculate your unit amount daily. I use 0.5% of my bankroll to determine what my unit amount will be for the day.Comment -
slimpickinsSBR Wise Guy
- 08-12-10
- 891
#1133Guys trying for the first time to figure this out.
Seems simple enough with the calc and the lines from Pinny vs. my lines but I don't seem to ever get a positive edge to show.
Would someone mind posting an example of a line that shows a positive edge (pinny line vs. their line, spread etc...)
Does not have to be a current one or even an true line I just want to make sure I am doing everything properly.
Many thanks, will toss some points for anyone willing to assist.Comment -
impperSBR Sharp
- 11-11-10
- 490
#1134Guys trying for the first time to figure this out.
Seems simple enough with the calc and the lines from Pinny vs. my lines but I don't seem to ever get a positive edge to show.
Would someone mind posting an example of a line that shows a positive edge (pinny line vs. their line, spread etc...)
Does not have to be a current one or even an true line I just want to make sure I am doing everything properly.
Many thanks, will toss some points for anyone willing to assist.
So assuming your book has -110 and 9 on both sides
Go to the half point calculator, choose nba, enter 9 in the spread box, -102 in the fav box, and -108 in the dog box. Now hit calculate.
Now you want to scroll down to +12 on the dog side. The number it shows it -184.2
Replace -184.2 with -170 (the price at which you are getting this line)
Calculator spits out an edge of 0.51%Comment -
slimpickinsSBR Wise Guy
- 08-12-10
- 891
#1135Also, on a related note
Comparing SBRodds it looks like Pinny is siding with TOR on that NBA game.
My line is still +2.5 -110 which seems better than Pinny at +2 -108 right now
Does this mean it is an auto bet for me? I tried those lines into the calc and was still showing negative edge with and without buying points?Comment -
impperSBR Sharp
- 11-11-10
- 490
#1136Yes that is pretty much an auto-bet; you have also got RLM in your favor. Big unit play for me at +2.5. If you're entering it correctly you should get an edge of 2.23% at +5.5. The edge is relatively smaller because 3 and 4 are not particularly high value numbers in NBA, but there is also RLM to considerComment -
slimpickinsSBR Wise Guy
- 08-12-10
- 891
#1137impper ; thank you very much
I was doing almost everything right but putting the -170 at the top which made the edge -.55
I realize now that I put the number at the bottom and that game me .51 as you said
So .51 = 1.7191 units based on 1+ edge x 1.41?Comment -
chilidogSBR Posting Legend
- 04-05-09
- 10305
#1138Correct, but personally, I stick with plays that have a minimum edge of 0.75% or higher. Cheme posted that his minimum was 1%. An edge is an edge, though, even if it's just 0.01%. It's up to you what you want to play.Comment -
slimpickinsSBR Wise Guy
- 08-12-10
- 891
#1139Thanks Chili
I am going to run my NBA at 5 PM EST then, I think you mentioned this time has worked best for NBA for you at least.
I will report back with what I get.
BTW: my book finally did move TOR to +2 but I am going to play it anyway and see if this RLM play pans out.Comment -
chilidogSBR Posting Legend
- 04-05-09
- 10305
#1140I do 5pm CST, so that'd be 6pm EST for you. I like to wait around an hour or so before gametime, but 2 hours before is fine as well. I did them about 2 hours before gametime last night, and still had a perfect night.Comment -
ghost xxSBR High Roller
- 08-26-10
- 170
#1141Chilidog, I am new here and the picks I have listened to have almost wiped out my bankroll.
Who should I trust?Comment -
chilidogSBR Posting Legend
- 04-05-09
- 10305
#1142How have they wiped out your bankroll?? Are you buying the 3 points to get the same spreads that we're posting?Comment -
impperSBR Sharp
- 11-11-10
- 490
#1143Hey chili, i've been playing with very simple angles using the half point calculator and I think I might be on to something:
football 6 point teasers! Teasing 2 football games 6 points gives you -110, for a required win rate of 52.4%. So what does the win rate on our individual games need to be? 72.5%! So we need to get better than -265 on any particular game to break even, and in essence we are paying -265 for each individual game (this is where I'm shaky, correct me if I'm wrong?)
Now l go to the half point calculator and enter a theoretical game of -8.5 -105, + 8.5 -105. Scroll all the way down to the fav at -2.5 and the calculator is saying the price is -344! Replace that with -265 and there's an edge of 4%. The win rate the calculator gives us is 75.72%, FAR in excess of our required 72.5% break-even win rate.
This is just speculation at this point, but it's something to think about hey?Comment -
ghost xxSBR High Roller
- 08-26-10
- 170
#1144I do buy the points to match the spreads.
Maybe I'm following the wrong guys.
I think I am only going to stay with you, Jessica, and SweetJonesComment -
impperSBR Sharp
- 11-11-10
- 490
#1145To be clear, this works because we're crossing 3 and 7 at a much cheaper price than they normally allow us to via point-buyingComment -
ghost xxSBR High Roller
- 08-26-10
- 170
#1146Can you explain to me?Comment -
chilidogSBR Posting Legend
- 04-05-09
- 10305
#1147Hey chili, i've been playing with very simple angles using the half point calculator and I think I might be on to something:
football 6 point teasers! Teasing 2 football games 6 points gives you -110, for a required win rate of 52.4%. So what does the win rate on our individual games need to be? 72.5%! So we need to get better than -265 on any particular game to break even, and in essence we are paying -265 for each individual game (this is where I'm shaky, correct me if I'm wrong?)
Now l go to the half point calculator and enter a theoretical game of -8.5 -105, + 8.5 -105. Scroll all the way down to the fav at -2.5 and the calculator is saying the price is -344! Replace that with -265 and there's an edge of 4%. The win rate the calculator gives us is 75.72%, FAR in excess of our required 72.5% break-even win rate.
This is just speculation at this point, but it's something to think about hey?Comment -
ghost xxSBR High Roller
- 08-26-10
- 170
#1148Chili and Impper, will you have plays for tonight?Comment -
chilidogSBR Posting Legend
- 04-05-09
- 10305
#1149Yup, but I'm waiting another 30 minutes to do the math. There's 11 NBA games on the board, so I'm sure I'll have plenty of plays. I already have my CBB plays locked in from earlier today. I'm on siena and wyoming in CBB.Comment -
ghost xxSBR High Roller
- 08-26-10
- 170
#1150Thank you Chili!!
siena and wyoming ML?Comment -
impperSBR Sharp
- 11-11-10
- 490
-
Gtownguy487SBR Wise Guy
- 02-21-08
- 539
#1152Wyoming +6 or Warriors +15
Which would be the better bet??Comment -
impperSBR Sharp
- 11-11-10
- 490
#1153Of course we know that for a teaser to win both games have to hit. At .725, the chance of both games to hit is .524, and all other outcomes are .476. Buying past 3 and 7 gives the games (according to the calculator, at least) somewhere in the realm of .745-.760. If we assume that on average the chance is .75, the chance for our teaser to hit is .563Comment -
Gtownguy487SBR Wise Guy
- 02-21-08
- 539
#1155I lost my ass yesterday on Boston and Colts.. ABout 1 grand to be exact.
I have 150 left and i need your wisdom Chili...
Will u tell me what you would do if you were me?Comment
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