Cheme82's CBB plays for November

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  • jolmscheid
    Restricted User
    • 02-20-10
    • 3256

    #1121
    Sweet...RebateWager just moved their line to -9 for the heat and I got in on the Heat for -5.5...Hopefully a good thing!
    Comment
    • impper
      SBR Sharp
      • 11-11-10
      • 490

      #1122
      Heat -5.5 should have some value as the Warriors are only -107 at +9 right now
      Comment
      • chilidog
        SBR Posting Legend
        • 04-05-09
        • 10305

        #1123
        those plays all look good to me
        Comment
        • pokerwhiz90
          SBR MVP
          • 10-02-10
          • 2618

          #1124
          i put 4 units on each, lets hope for another 60% day
          Comment
          • chilidog
            SBR Posting Legend
            • 04-05-09
            • 10305

            #1125
            Originally posted by pokerwhiz90
            i put 4 units on each, lets hope for another 60% day
            Flatbetting works as well; you just miss out on extra money by not betting in relation to the edge that you have per play.
            Comment
            • impper
              SBR Sharp
              • 11-11-10
              • 490

              #1126
              78% of the public is on Denver and yet the line moves from -2.5 to -2

              Looks like Toronto could be a good play. I'll watch what it does throughout the day
              Comment
              • btd
                SBR Sharp
                • 08-18-08
                • 455

                #1127
                Congrats on a great nite, will follow and maybe tail some picks
                Comment
                • pokerwhiz90
                  SBR MVP
                  • 10-02-10
                  • 2618

                  #1128
                  is toronto playing at home? the books always play rlm on toronto's lines when a superstar is visiting because they like to go out and party supposedly
                  Comment
                  • pokerwhiz90
                    SBR MVP
                    • 10-02-10
                    • 2618

                    #1129
                    Originally posted by chilidog
                    Flatbetting works as well; you just miss out on extra money by not betting in relation to the edge that you have per play.
                    i wish i knew the edge
                    Comment
                    • chilidog
                      SBR Posting Legend
                      • 04-05-09
                      • 10305

                      #1130
                      Originally posted by pokerwhiz90

                      i wish i knew the edge
                      Easy enough to determine with the calculator. While we might get similar plays, our edges will rarely ever be the same.

                      Take the plays, look up the line/spread at pinny and at your book, and plug that data into the calculator, and it'll tell you your edge, or if you don't have one at all.
                      Comment
                      • pokerwhiz90
                        SBR MVP
                        • 10-02-10
                        • 2618

                        #1131
                        yeah i know all the steps but whenever i look at the results, my edges never get larger than 1.5%... and ive gone through hundreds
                        Comment
                        • chilidog
                          SBR Posting Legend
                          • 04-05-09
                          • 10305

                          #1132
                          An edge is an edge. If the calc shows an edge of 1.5%, you'd bet 3.1 units on it, using impper's formula. 1+ (edge * 1.41). Recalculate your unit amount daily. I use 0.5% of my bankroll to determine what my unit amount will be for the day.
                          Comment
                          • slimpickins
                            SBR Wise Guy
                            • 08-12-10
                            • 891

                            #1133
                            Guys trying for the first time to figure this out.
                            Seems simple enough with the calc and the lines from Pinny vs. my lines but I don't seem to ever get a positive edge to show.

                            Would someone mind posting an example of a line that shows a positive edge (pinny line vs. their line, spread etc...)
                            Does not have to be a current one or even an true line I just want to make sure I am doing everything properly.
                            Many thanks, will toss some points for anyone willing to assist.
                            Comment
                            • impper
                              SBR Sharp
                              • 11-11-10
                              • 490

                              #1134
                              Originally posted by slimpickins
                              Guys trying for the first time to figure this out.
                              Seems simple enough with the calc and the lines from Pinny vs. my lines but I don't seem to ever get a positive edge to show.

                              Would someone mind posting an example of a line that shows a positive edge (pinny line vs. their line, spread etc...)
                              Does not have to be a current one or even an true line I just want to make sure I am doing everything properly.
                              Many thanks, will toss some points for anyone willing to assist.
                              Pinny shows Golden state +9 -108, Miami -9 -102

                              So assuming your book has -110 and 9 on both sides

                              Go to the half point calculator, choose nba, enter 9 in the spread box, -102 in the fav box, and -108 in the dog box. Now hit calculate.

                              Now you want to scroll down to +12 on the dog side. The number it shows it -184.2

                              Replace -184.2 with -170 (the price at which you are getting this line)

                              Calculator spits out an edge of 0.51%
                              Comment
                              • slimpickins
                                SBR Wise Guy
                                • 08-12-10
                                • 891

                                #1135
                                Also, on a related note
                                Comparing SBRodds it looks like Pinny is siding with TOR on that NBA game.
                                My line is still +2.5 -110 which seems better than Pinny at +2 -108 right now
                                Does this mean it is an auto bet for me? I tried those lines into the calc and was still showing negative edge with and without buying points?
                                Comment
                                • impper
                                  SBR Sharp
                                  • 11-11-10
                                  • 490

                                  #1136
                                  Yes that is pretty much an auto-bet; you have also got RLM in your favor. Big unit play for me at +2.5. If you're entering it correctly you should get an edge of 2.23% at +5.5. The edge is relatively smaller because 3 and 4 are not particularly high value numbers in NBA, but there is also RLM to consider
                                  Comment
                                  • slimpickins
                                    SBR Wise Guy
                                    • 08-12-10
                                    • 891

                                    #1137
                                    impper ; thank you very much
                                    I was doing almost everything right but putting the -170 at the top which made the edge -.55
                                    I realize now that I put the number at the bottom and that game me .51 as you said

                                    So .51 = 1.7191 units based on 1+ edge x 1.41?
                                    Comment
                                    • chilidog
                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                      • 04-05-09
                                      • 10305

                                      #1138
                                      Originally posted by slimpickins
                                      impper ; thank you very much
                                      I was doing almost everything right but putting the -170 at the top which made the edge -.55
                                      I realize now that I put the number at the bottom and that game me .51 as you said

                                      So .51 = 1.7191 units based on 1+ edge x 1.41?
                                      Correct, but personally, I stick with plays that have a minimum edge of 0.75% or higher. Cheme posted that his minimum was 1%. An edge is an edge, though, even if it's just 0.01%. It's up to you what you want to play.
                                      Comment
                                      • slimpickins
                                        SBR Wise Guy
                                        • 08-12-10
                                        • 891

                                        #1139
                                        Thanks Chili
                                        I am going to run my NBA at 5 PM EST then, I think you mentioned this time has worked best for NBA for you at least.
                                        I will report back with what I get.


                                        BTW: my book finally did move TOR to +2 but I am going to play it anyway and see if this RLM play pans out.
                                        Comment
                                        • chilidog
                                          SBR Posting Legend
                                          • 04-05-09
                                          • 10305

                                          #1140
                                          I do 5pm CST, so that'd be 6pm EST for you. I like to wait around an hour or so before gametime, but 2 hours before is fine as well. I did them about 2 hours before gametime last night, and still had a perfect night.
                                          Comment
                                          • ghost xx
                                            SBR High Roller
                                            • 08-26-10
                                            • 170

                                            #1141
                                            Chilidog, I am new here and the picks I have listened to have almost wiped out my bankroll.
                                            Who should I trust?
                                            Comment
                                            • chilidog
                                              SBR Posting Legend
                                              • 04-05-09
                                              • 10305

                                              #1142
                                              How have they wiped out your bankroll?? Are you buying the 3 points to get the same spreads that we're posting?
                                              Comment
                                              • impper
                                                SBR Sharp
                                                • 11-11-10
                                                • 490

                                                #1143
                                                Hey chili, i've been playing with very simple angles using the half point calculator and I think I might be on to something:

                                                football 6 point teasers! Teasing 2 football games 6 points gives you -110, for a required win rate of 52.4%. So what does the win rate on our individual games need to be? 72.5%! So we need to get better than -265 on any particular game to break even, and in essence we are paying -265 for each individual game (this is where I'm shaky, correct me if I'm wrong?)

                                                Now l go to the half point calculator and enter a theoretical game of -8.5 -105, + 8.5 -105. Scroll all the way down to the fav at -2.5 and the calculator is saying the price is -344! Replace that with -265 and there's an edge of 4%. The win rate the calculator gives us is 75.72%, FAR in excess of our required 72.5% break-even win rate.

                                                This is just speculation at this point, but it's something to think about hey?
                                                Comment
                                                • ghost xx
                                                  SBR High Roller
                                                  • 08-26-10
                                                  • 170

                                                  #1144
                                                  I do buy the points to match the spreads.
                                                  Maybe I'm following the wrong guys.
                                                  I think I am only going to stay with you, Jessica, and SweetJones
                                                  Comment
                                                  • impper
                                                    SBR Sharp
                                                    • 11-11-10
                                                    • 490

                                                    #1145
                                                    To be clear, this works because we're crossing 3 and 7 at a much cheaper price than they normally allow us to via point-buying
                                                    Comment
                                                    • ghost xx
                                                      SBR High Roller
                                                      • 08-26-10
                                                      • 170

                                                      #1146
                                                      Can you explain to me?
                                                      Comment
                                                      • chilidog
                                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                                        • 04-05-09
                                                        • 10305

                                                        #1147
                                                        Originally posted by impper
                                                        Hey chili, i've been playing with very simple angles using the half point calculator and I think I might be on to something:

                                                        football 6 point teasers! Teasing 2 football games 6 points gives you -110, for a required win rate of 52.4%. So what does the win rate on our individual games need to be? 72.5%! So we need to get better than -265 on any particular game to break even, and in essence we are paying -265 for each individual game (this is where I'm shaky, correct me if I'm wrong?)

                                                        Now l go to the half point calculator and enter a theoretical game of -8.5 -105, + 8.5 -105. Scroll all the way down to the fav at -2.5 and the calculator is saying the price is -344! Replace that with -265 and there's an edge of 4%. The win rate the calculator gives us is 75.72%, FAR in excess of our required 72.5% break-even win rate.

                                                        This is just speculation at this point, but it's something to think about hey?
                                                        wow - good find. How did you arrive at 72.5%, though? I get the -265 part. 265/265 = 72.6%.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • ghost xx
                                                          SBR High Roller
                                                          • 08-26-10
                                                          • 170

                                                          #1148
                                                          Chili and Impper, will you have plays for tonight?
                                                          Comment
                                                          • chilidog
                                                            SBR Posting Legend
                                                            • 04-05-09
                                                            • 10305

                                                            #1149
                                                            Yup, but I'm waiting another 30 minutes to do the math. There's 11 NBA games on the board, so I'm sure I'll have plenty of plays. I already have my CBB plays locked in from earlier today. I'm on siena and wyoming in CBB.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • ghost xx
                                                              SBR High Roller
                                                              • 08-26-10
                                                              • 170

                                                              #1150
                                                              Thank you Chili!!

                                                              siena and wyoming ML?
                                                              Comment
                                                              • impper
                                                                SBR Sharp
                                                                • 11-11-10
                                                                • 490

                                                                #1151
                                                                Originally posted by chilidog

                                                                wow - good find. How did you arrive at 72.5%, though? I get the -265 part. 265/265 = 72.6%.
                                                                at -110 the implied odds are .524. .524 * .524 = .275. 1 - .275 = .725. So .725 is the minimum each game has to hit at to reach our break even point.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • Gtownguy487
                                                                  SBR Wise Guy
                                                                  • 02-21-08
                                                                  • 539

                                                                  #1152
                                                                  Wyoming +6 or Warriors +15

                                                                  Which would be the better bet??
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • impper
                                                                    SBR Sharp
                                                                    • 11-11-10
                                                                    • 490

                                                                    #1153
                                                                    Of course we know that for a teaser to win both games have to hit. At .725, the chance of both games to hit is .524, and all other outcomes are .476. Buying past 3 and 7 gives the games (according to the calculator, at least) somewhere in the realm of .745-.760. If we assume that on average the chance is .75, the chance for our teaser to hit is .563
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • chilidog
                                                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                                                      • 04-05-09
                                                                      • 10305

                                                                      #1154
                                                                      Originally posted by ghost xx
                                                                      Thank you Chili!!

                                                                      siena and wyoming ML?
                                                                      Nah, I had Siena -2.5 and Wyoming +6 (with buying the 3 points), but this was earlier today, I dunno what the lines are at now.
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • Gtownguy487
                                                                        SBR Wise Guy
                                                                        • 02-21-08
                                                                        • 539

                                                                        #1155
                                                                        I lost my ass yesterday on Boston and Colts.. ABout 1 grand to be exact.

                                                                        I have 150 left and i need your wisdom Chili...

                                                                        Will u tell me what you would do if you were me?
                                                                        Comment
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