CK's Carjacking the NCAA Threads Leans for Thursday 2/5/09

[FrenchConnection]

Hi all, newbie from France!!

I read CK's thread for 2 weeks now (since I am sticked on my chair after a knee surgery) and learned a lot with you... so I decide to create an account just to thank CK and all the mafia

I hope my English is not too bad and that I can give my modest contribution here.
Please let me know if there is something you don't understant (because I don't want that the language becomes a barrier)

That's beeing said, what do you think about RI -2.5 @ Charlotte??
Charlotte is not a good home team and they don't cover a spread in the last 10 games. The only 'good win" at home is maybe UMass by five and I think RI is better than UMass??

Thanks again...

[solobass]

Dex/Solo - exactly my point, my verbage was meant in that form - fade Vandy (not the capper that made the pick)

one more caveat - if you say Alert, Alert, Alert or LOCK and that capper comes back with MAD hostility and aggression when anyone posses a question or counter that play - then it is time to FADE their thread - no need to be hostile and aggressive when we all have one common goal - MAKE MONEY!

amen to that and i know exactly what one you are talking about!

[twitch66]

-celtics (big)
______________

-pacers

That was a great pick last night Dexter! Mucho Gracias! .

I got:
Indiana Pacers +6 (bought 1/2 point)
Boston Celtics -7

Keep up the good work.

[Dexter]

hey schaapattack - yesterday i guess you didnt see my post. you seemed to know that va comm was a secret play, before ck went ahead with the - how did you know that it was def a secret play?

[Dexter]

That was a great pick last night Dexter! Mucho Gracias! .

I got:
Indiana Pacers +6 (bought 1/2 point)
Boston Celtics -7

Keep up the good work.

nice - btw, you look hot smoking that bong! haha

[Killer Chihuahua]

Hey Solo,
What did you cap that penn State game too. I see it opened Mich -3 and moved to -4.5. close to 50/50 people on the game......just wondering what you see. Ml for michigan is a little low too at-200

[nonsense48]

CK, thanks brother. see how paying attention can pay off.

[Dexter]

god damn - st marys doesnt tip until 11:30 eastern...

[solobass]

right now 53% of NBA ATS money is on the lakers/celtics game. goes to show you the public likes to lay money down on the sexy matchups, and it might make better water cooler conversation to say you picked the winner of that game instead of pacers/sixers, but they all pay if you pick a winna! i expect the line to go up another .5 pt before tip off too, once the east coast office stiffs get out and lay their money on the celts.

[coolkaren]

Mr. Dunlop,

The spread for Villanova was 3 yesterday. I bought the line up to 4. Villanova won by 3. I cashed the ticket. Who did the money get thrown away to? It's just my style. I learned how to manipulate lines with a single hook or one point a long time ago.

assuming buying one point costs 20 cents (from -110 to -130), this is a clever strategy only if over time more than 20% of what would have lost without buying a point are won with buying a point. Siting an example is not useful at all and so is telling that you have learnt this for a long time.

[twitch66]

I spread myself to thin last night picked too many teams... so I had a list of several games i liked and looked to see which of the guru's here followed any those. and those were the ones i played.
CK's liked Michigan also...
Nonsense likes Gonzaga...
well, nobody else liked Xavier but me. they are due to come out of their slump...

Gonzaga -10
Xavier -8
Michigan -4

[Dexter]

take a look at what this kid same wrote in another new thread:

"I love how much credit people are giving Diogee, what like I did nothing. W/e"

is this kid on something? lol

[shoebox]

take a look at what this kid same wrote in another new thread:

"I love how much credit people are giving Diogee, what like I did nothing. W/e"

is this kid on something? lol

ego-maniac thats how I see it
hes gone cold and does not know how to handle a cold run.
plus hes getting whooped in his own touney

[twitch66]

nice - btw, you look hot smoking that bong! haha

Yeah... She was a hightimes girl of the month. I thought she looked hot too.
but i am going to have to change the avatar... I am getting to many PM's asking if thats really me and will i come over and party
I have to tell them that i'll party... but know that i'm a fat old stoner dude.

[Dexter]

Not bad 3 out of 48 games...good luck with that...THATS 17% OF THE TIME...LIKE I SAID...BETTER BUY A FEW POINTS BECAUSE YOUR ON THE WRONG SIDE OF THAT GAME

wow - look at this guy all confident and sure of a play. bold letters and all.

i never saw you speak with such conviction. elaborate as to why you like the lakers so much - are you a fan?

what % of your bankroll are you laying on the lakers?

[JGILL50]

god damn - st marys doesnt tip until 11:30 eastern...

dex i like that with a key player missing. gonna give me a chance to play it or not pending the other outcomes. i with everyone else its a little scary but in we trust

[twitch66]

i love having a small amount of $ on a parlay (they rarely cash)... they are such a rush and ck's looks nice but he's going against xavier which i have already laid money on... so i will do one with:

pacers +6
celtics -7
gonzaga -10

[solobass]

wow - look at this guy all confident and sure of a play. bold letters and all.

i never saw you speak with such conviction. elaborate as to why you like the lakers so much - are you a fan?

what % of your bankroll are you laying on the lakers?

sorry my error. this is the same clown that flamed me on my san diego st. pick the other night giving all kinds of great "insight" about how unlv would cash and san diego st. won straight up. i think he used caps then too.

why do i like the lakers, well i responded to one of dex's posts the other day and i had this capped at a 3 pt boston win. the public is so used to just laying money on boston like they are an ATM machine and with 11 wins in a row they have to lose sometime. i might be right, i might be wrong we will see.

also i am a fan, but not of the lakers. i am a fan of making more in 3 days sitting in my home office than i did in a months worth of work in the biotech sector. that is why i am a professional gambler.

[JGILL50]

ego-maniac thats how I see it
hes gone cold and does not know how to handle a cold run.
plus hes getting whooped in his own touney

taken big fav after big fav will catch up with you. almost every game this guy played was with the public not smart and it caught up to him. i agree the way he handled it was childish but then again i hate seeing anybody in that kind of situation

[solobass]

Not bad 3 out of 48 games...good luck with that...THATS 17% OF THE TIME...LIKE I SAID...BETTER BUY A FEW POINTS BECAUSE YOUR ON THE WRONG SIDE OF THAT GAME

and i have never bought points. i see where it could be advantageous at times but is not my thing.

[Killer Chihuahua]

Hey Solo,
What did you cap that penn State game too. I see it opened Mich -3 and moved to -4.5. close to 50/50 people on the game......just wondering what you see. Ml for michigan is a little low too at-200

[solobass]

Hey Solo,
What did you cap that penn State game too. I see it opened Mich -3 and moved to -4.5. close to 50/50 people on the game......just wondering what you see. Ml for michigan is a little low too at-200

check out my reply in this thread to CK a few pages back. i live in big ten country (part-time, yay gambling/traveling money) and michigan has no low post presence worth anything and the wolverines offense relies too much on the 3 pointer, of which penn st. defends pretty well. i would not be surprised if penn st. won straight up but my initial cap was michigan -1. i got in when the line went to +4.5 for penn st. as the difference between my projection and the line was big enough for me to get in.

[TheLemonDropKid]

You know one thing I've noticed the last couple of nights? It seems like we get some kind of 2nd Half fever and start pissing money away in a "reactionary" way later in the night......especially if we've taken some losses on the day. (unless it's just me doing that)

Doesn't it just make more sense to just take your lumps for the day and move on and wait for tomorrow?

I think I could use more discipline with this.......make up your mind on your picks for the day and THAT's IT......you're done....then just live with your results.......thoughts?

[shoebox]

I guess sam is back in i think

[repski]

check out my reply in this thread to CK a few pages back. i live in big ten country (part-time, yay gambling/traveling money) and michigan has no low post presence worth anything and the wolverines offense relies too much on the 3 pointer, of which penn st. defends pretty well. i would not be surprised if penn st. won straight up but my initial cap was michigan -1. i got in when the line went to +4.5 for penn st. as the difference between my projection and the line was big enough for me to get in.

solo,
when you do your handicapping...do you subtract points for BTB games??

[Dexter]

sorry my error. this is the same clown that flamed me on my san diego st. pick the other night giving all kinds of great "insight" about how unlv would cash and san diego st. won straight up. i think he used caps then too.

why do i like the lakers, well i responded to one of dex's posts the other day and i had this capped at a 3 pt boston win. the public is so used to just laying money on boston like they are an ATM machine and with 11 wins in a row they have to lose sometime. i might be right, i might be wrong we will see.

also i am a fan, but not of the lakers. i am a fan of making more in 3 days sitting in my home office than i did in a months worth of work in the biotech sector. that is why i am a professional gambler.

i have no problem with him being big on the lakers, but from a fellow regular poster here, i just would rather see something a little more concrete then "YOU GUYS ARE ON THE WRONG SIDE" i know schappattack can do better then that.

[shoebox]

Lakers were w/o Bynum last year in the playoffs, look what happened. Lakers beat boston w/ Bynum. Now Bynums out for a revenge game which makes this one even more sweet!!!!!!I would still of taken them w/Bynum. Now Bynum is out==$$

[solobass]

solo,
when you do your handicapping...do you subtract points for BTB games??

actually it is a sliding scale based on games played in the last 6 days with more current data weighted heavier like a b2b situation.

[peterpan19]

ludovike
well I use pinnacle, great book with great lines

[solobass]

Lakers were w/o Bynum last year in the playoffs, look what happened. Lakers beat boston w/ Bynum. Now Bynums out for a revenge game which makes this one even more sweet!!!!!!I would still of taken them w/Bynum. Now Bynum is out==$$

i see a lot of hedging on the celts moneyline 63% is on celts 37% on lakers. more money is coming in now on the celts spread as well in the last hour.

[nonsense48]

lemon, i usually roll with my initial picks but on occasion i may add a game here and there but not very often.

[Dexter]

You know one thing I've noticed the last couple of nights? It seems like we get some kind of 2nd Half fever and start pissing money away in a "reactionary" way later in the night......especially if we've taken some losses on the day. (unless it's just me doing that)

Doesn't it just make more sense to just take your lumps for the day and move on and wait for tomorrow?

I think I could use more discipline with this.......make up your mind on your picks for the day and THAT's IT......you're done....then just live with your results.......thoughts?

in most cases it does - but if you're watching the game and have a good feel for whats going on in the game, betting the 2nd half can make tons of sense. esp if you know the coaches well (who make good halftime adjustments) and other factors like playing the team who closed the first half well etc..

[Killer Chihuahua]

Thanks solo for your reply. I had penn at a pick but everyone seems to be on michigan. Plus with the line movement i just needed a little nudge to trust my own numbers....they seemed off but will trust your and my numbers and scoop up the extra points.

[repski]

You know one thing I've noticed the last couple of nights? It seems like we get some kind of 2nd Half fever and start pissing money away in a "reactionary" way later in the night......especially if we've taken some losses on the day. (unless it's just me doing that)

Doesn't it just make more sense to just take your lumps for the day and move on and wait for tomorrow?

I think I could use more discipline with this.......make up your mind on your picks for the day and THAT's IT......you're done....then just live with your results.......thoughts?

Lemon,
I believe many times after watching the first half...I get a better feel for a game.....made a lot of coin back last night getting Clem+5 2nd half.....but, I laid off pressing VCU because just visually VCU was not going to be -9 better in thesecond half.....I did get porked by Memphis late though....still pissed over that one..

[cs11787]

Ck, St Marys back up to 18. You gonna takem full game?