CK's Carjacking the NCAA Threads Leans for Thursday 2/5/09

[FrenchConnection]

What do you think about Citadel +5 @ App St?

The Citadel has a good 10-5-1 ATS and are 6-0-1 away.
They covered all their spreads between +1 to +6 except 1.
They are 3-0 ATS away in the SoCon.
They didn't cover the last 2 (where they were favorites) and they never not covered 3 in a row since the beginning of the season.

App St covered the last one but covered 2 in a row only once this season.
They are 2-4 ATS home in the Conference.

Bad trend: App St won the last 17!!!!!

But The Citadel is definitively not the same team as we used to know the past years. 4 freshmen returns from last year and are improving and their senior who was red shirted last year is back to leading them.

The Citadel ranks 2nd in the conf' in scoring defense and FT % and they ranks 1st in rebounding defense so I think they are able to keep the game close.

[MindGames]

I really like the Pacers/76'ers under 216. The last two meetings haven't gone over 200 and the 76'ers are only giving up 96 ppg. Just some food for thought. GL with the Davidson 1h tonight.. im definitely on it! Also, no play on the Lakers game tonight.. Kobe wants this one BAD!

College Picks:

Rhode Island -3
Samford -3.5
Wright State -7 1H (WS won by 16 last meeting, and Val is terrible on the road (1-8)) I look for them to get off to a hot start.

[Ludovike]

ludovike
well I use pinnacle, great book with great lines

thx peterpan, I will give a try for sure

[cocknocker]

I can't believe that there is this much talk about one game, but it is the sexy game of the evening. All that i have to say is what I have laways said this year, "Thou shalt not wager against the Celtics and their referees in a big game."

[cocknocker]

LemonDropper,

Out of those I like the Pacers+5.5 only just so you'll know Butler and Xavier are the wrong calls. I don't really like the total on the Lakers/Celtics game at all.

[TheLemonDropKid]

LemonDropper,

Out of those I like the Pacers+5.5 only just so you'll know Butler and Xavier are the wrong calls. I don't really like the total on the Lakers/Celtics game at all.

Thank you sir......and so it will be....

[shoebox]

CK how many years have you done cfb and cbb sp?
has the record been this silly long term?

had to throw in the light its kinda fun............

[cheesehead004]

What do you guys think is going to happen to the Lakers-Celtics line as it gets closer to tip off? Is it gonna keep going up?

[cocknocker]

I have been doing it for four years now shoebox. What happened was I started doing it in football by tracking the results of games with no moneylines. Then i also noticed that the 1st halves had no moneyline assigned to them too. I tracked it for 3 weeks and then I was sold. It was just second nature when i started seeing those types of lines in basketball too. And yes, it has always been this lights out since i have been doing them. When I first started out doing them with football it seemed like Boise and Appalachian State always had one when they were at home. I just simply started putting dimes on it at the time, and then it sort of took on a life all it's own. Oklahoma was just killin' it this yearin 1st halves. I caught one when they played Washington this year that i placed 4 dimes on because I saw it coming like a Jedi

[cocknocker]

Cheezie,

thou shalt not wager against the Celtics and their referees

[shoebox]

Nice CK I think you gave us enough info to feed the family all season if need b.

"Give a man a fish and you feed him for a day. Teach a man to fish and you feed him for a lifetime."
Thanks Guru

[ANDYW15]

I reckon I am not the only one when I say I will be glad when this thread ventures back to the NBA forum lol. I seemed to be making more money when the Mafioso was based there. Playing more than the usual NCAA BB has been a lottery for me (aside from CK Secret Plays) and after reading the other threads on the NCAA forum I become convinced a bet on one team or another is a good thing when I should not be placing it lol.

[mb19]

I took davidson 1h -13

[Dexter]

Boston -7 (Thanks Dex..a lil nervous w/the fade comments on Bos)
.

what fade comments?

[Dexter]

What do you guys think is going to happen to the Lakers-Celtics line as it gets closer to tip off? Is it gonna keep going up?

i would be shocked if it went up any more...

[cocknocker]

We'll be home on Monday, ANDYW15. But I am gonna need the help of all as I actually haven't been following the NBA too much, rather just stepping in when i see absurdities like last night when I found that players like the Suns against the Warriors. The NBA is a step up in the level of wagering.

[TheLemonDropKid]

what fade comments?

I forget who it was.......but somebody on this thread was fading that Boston pick......seemed pretty hell-bent on the Lakers getting 7. Their confidence made me nervous......i think it might have been the all caps or something.....

[wangichu]

-celtics (big)
______________

-pacers
________________

-jazz (big ~ pending deron williams)
_________________

back on track and ready to take the book's lunch money. Since i have the flu and am having a hard time sitting in front of the computer for anything longer than a little research and punching tickets, i will take advantage of the fact that my man dex laid it out for me. I have the exact same card as him, so if anyone is actually following my picks (which has been pretty good the last week), i would advise them to peep dex's write ups, there's not much more to add anyways. I'm even playing them like him in terms of money numbers. Alright, i'm laying down again, so good luck mafia.

[wangichu]

I forget who it was.......but somebody on this thread was fading that Boston pick......seemed pretty hell-bent on the Lakers getting 7. Their confidence made me nervous......i think it might have been the all caps or something.....

nah, celtics dumped on the lakers by double digits twice last year and again, no bynum for this tilt. also, why else would the line jump from 5.5 to 7 with more money on the lakers? The books want to make sure they don't lose here. As much money as boston wins their backers, the books need to take every advantage of matches like this where they can win some of it back by getting everyone off the c's.

[Dexter]

back on track and ready to take the book's lunch money. Since i have the flu and am having a hard time sitting in front of the computer for anything longer than a little research and punching tickets, i will take advantage of the fact that my man dex laid it out for me. I have the exact same card as him, so if anyone is actually following my picks (which has been pretty good the last week), i would advise them to peep dex's write ups, there's not much more to add anyways. I'm even playing them like him in terms of money numbers. Alright, i'm laying down again, so good luck mafia.

love it when wangichu agrees with me - love it.

[Dexter]

We'll be home on Monday, ANDYW15. But I am gonna need the help of all as I actually haven't been following the NBA too much, rather just stepping in when i see absurdities like last night when I found that players like the Suns against the Warriors. The NBA is a step up in the level of wagering.

no no - i didnt notice anyone (except for that horrible capper shoebox go with phx.

[cocknocker]

Sorry about the illness, wang, get well soon....If it will help you any, those are the same leans I would have played today too if i were on the NBA channel

[nonsense48]

so i see nobody is with me on philly -5' at home. i know it's not a favroite game and philly doesn't usually handle indy but i'm just gonna go with my gut on this one as i've crunched the numbers and philly still comes out as an 8pt. fav therefore i have to go with and trust my capping abilities and see how it does.

[ANDYW15]

Good to see the majority of us are on the same NBA plays today... last time this happened I seem to remember us cleaning up.

[TheLemonDropKid]

nah, celtics dumped on the lakers by double digits twice last year and again, no bynum for this tilt. also, why else would the line jump from 5.5 to 7 with more money on the lakers? The books want to make sure they don't lose here. As much money as boston wins their backers, the books need to take every advantage of matches like this where they can win some of it back by getting everyone off the c's.

Cool....you guys have talked me down from my state of paranoia....you guys would have been great to have around the first time I got stoned and thought everybody in the grocery store was trying to arrest me for looking at them.

[shoebox]

no no - i didnt notice anyone (except for that horrible capper shoebox go with phx.

Ouch early lean easy there and then it flew away, fly fly fly far awayfrom my wallet

[OC]

Hey Dex did you catch the injury / surgery info on Brand? Probably a stupid question as you do your research but I'm not the sharpest tool in the shed.

[shoebox]

I might have to tail you guys on the pacers, jazz play. I have no problem being on the right side of dex, ck and wang. Sounds good can I add it for my plays for the tourney? or will sam bust me and kick me out?-haha

[50lipa]

Ouch early lean easy there and then it flew away, fly fly fly far awayfrom my wallet

A quick glimpse of your avatar shoebox, after that sentence, makes it almost PRICELESS.

[Dexter]

Hey Dex did you catch the injury / surgery info on Brand? Probably a stupid question as you do your research but I'm not the sharpest tool in the shed.

no i didnt....hes done! (wont make much of a diff with the play tonight...hes been a non factor not even logging 30 min since back)

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?id=3887072&campaign=rss&source=NBAHeadlines

bogut is done

http://my.journaltimes.com/post/woelfel-world-of-sports/bogut_s_back_injury_diagnosed.html

williams is a go!!

http://www.sltrib.com/jazz/ci_11636076?source=rss

[OC]

Glad I could add a little insight on the Brand injury Dex. Think it's the first time I've ever had any.

[nonsense48]

gonz-10 is the smallest spread gonz has given portland in quite sometime and gonz beat port about 3 wks.ago by 17pts. so for me gonz-10 is the obvious choice here unless i'm missing something. someone mentioned about gonz trying to get national recognition which seems odd since gonz has gone to the big dance year after year for too many years to count now and have done very well. i should think they have very good national recognition

[nonsense48]

brand is a non-issue as philly has enuff to fill his shoes at this point

[OC]

brand is a non-issue as philly has enuff to fill his shoes at this point

Think he wears like a size 17 shoe Nonsense.

Just thought the injury might be relevent for the game. Oh and I do like the Gonzo play myself. Unless the line jumps significantly, I'm on em.

[nonsense48]

brand has been injured on and off for sometime now and even when he has played it's been in a very limited role so i don't think he even matters anymore or at least not as much as when he was first injured. they've adjusted.