CK's Carjacking the NCAA Threads Leans for Thursday 2/5/09

[repski]

Ah yes, I will be back later to update the thread with write ups. Here's what i have on deck for tomorrow:

Michigan-2 (buying a point to get on key number)AVG
St. Mary's -17.5 (buying a hook to get under the key number)AVG
St. Mary's-10 1st half (Secret Play)BIG
Davidson-12 1st half (Secret Play)BIG

I dropped St. John's from the card after further research showed me that they are not a good money team on the road. NO PLAY


Updated record for CK's Final Week on the NCAA threads 10-6

CK,
I have St. Mary's @ -9.5 now....if it slips below 9.5 is it still a secret play?? I know VCU wasn't a SP until it went to 9.5 last night..thx

[oBaMa_MaNiA]

Solid bit of advice there solobass. I won't hold ya liable, I see the maths side of things.

Lets go the secret plays today and beat the books!

[flavo-ice]

Mills is out for the season (I think broken hand or wrist)...There season is going to go down hill...They were up by 7 against Gonzaga near half-time until Mills got injured and ended up losing by 7...then lost by nearly 20 to Portland.

Mills is out for at least 4 weeks. He just had surgery on his wrist.

I know St. Mary's 1h is a system play, however I am looking hard at San Francisco +18 for the game. That is a huge number to cover, and St. Mary's is just not the same without Mills. He was a huge part of their offensive production, not just scoring, but also running the offense, not to mention their leader. St. Mary's has only played 1 game since Mills went out during the Gonzaga game, and I suspect St. Mary's will continue to struggle offensively as they learn to play together with a new lineup. They should still win, but covering 18 is alot to ask. I can imagine if they get a comfortable lead it would be an opportune time for the coach to screw around with different rotations on the floor to see what does and doesn't work.

Note-Prior to Mills injury, the same 5 had started every game this year. This is a big change for them in my opinion.

[solobass]

also i think we can glean some info on the magic regarding jameer nelson's loss. yes, it was against the clips but a 26-10 assist to turnover ratio in the first game (least amount of preparation) is a good indicator and with hedo handling the ball a little more his vision/height will help the half court offense to replace what they might lose in the transiton game. what i am interested in is how their average possessions a game does in the next week or so.

[solobass]

Mills is out for at least 4 weeks. He just had surgery on his wrist.

I know St. Mary's 1h is a system play, however I am looking hard at San Francisco +18 for the game. That is a huge number to cover, and St. Mary's is just not the same without Mills. He was a huge part of their offensive production, not just scoring, but also running the offense, not to mention their leader. St. Mary's has only played 1 game since Mills went out during the Gonzaga game, and I suspect St. Mary's will continue to struggle offensively as they learn to play together with a new lineup. They should still win, but covering 18 is alot to ask. I can imagine if they get a comfortable lead it would be an opportune time for the coach to screw around with different rotations on the floor to see what does and doesn't work.

Note-Prior to Mills injury, the same 5 had started every game this year. This is a big change for them in my opinion.

decent insight but san francisco is #210 rpi and their only SU win in the last 5 weeks has been against loyola marymount (#319 rpi) so they are definitely in the blowout laydown category. i will be on st. mary's and by my estimation they will be a secret play 4 more times this season which gives you opportunity to get it back in case of a loss.

[flavo-ice]

gonzaga-10 looks like a nice little gift so get it before the line travels up up up as i think it will as gonz handles port by DD's on a regular basis and i see no reason for it to change here

I would suggest taking a deeper look at Portland. The pilots are for real and will give Gonzaga a game. They don't have the same raw talent as the zags, but they play well as a team. Portland is legit this year.

In addition, the zags are playing Memphis on Saturday in a big televised matchup, which is important for the tourney as well as their one chance for national recognition, so they could easily not be 100% focused on Portland here.

[flavo-ice]

decent insight but san francisco is #210 rpi and their only SU win in the last 5 weeks has been against loyola marymount (#319 rpi) so they are definitely in the blowout laydown category. i will be on st. mary's and by my estimation they will be a secret play 4 more times this season which gives you opportunity to get it back in case of a loss.

I'm not talking about them winning, I'm talking about them covering. I recognize the RPI's. San Francisco is 1-6 in conference this year and of those 6 losses, all were by 18 or less except a 34 point loss at Gonzaga.

They have also played St. Mary's(@ USF) this season(with mills) and only lost by 12. Should be no intimidation/laydown factor here.

I'm still looking at it but I think the main point I was trying to convey is that Mills is out and St. Mary's just isn't the same team without him. How much of a difference/impact he makes is yet to be seen but the initial results don't look good for the gaels.

[solobass]

I'm not talking about them winning, I'm talking about them covering. I recognize the RPI's. San Francisco is 1-6 in conference this year and of those 6 losses, all were by 18 or less except a 34 point loss at Gonzaga.

They have also played St. Mary's(@ USF) this season(with mills) and only lost by 12. Should be no intimidation/laydown factor here.

I'm still looking at it but I think the main point I was trying to convey is that Mills is out and St. Mary's just isn't the same team without him. How much of a difference/impact he makes is yet to be seen but the initial results don't look good for the gaels.

you might be right. it is not a good argument for me to make because i am usually hammering on lineup stability and its effects on capping.

[oBaMa_MaNiA]

Flavo-ice, that game against San Fran. St Mary's won the first half by 13 and Mills had 19 for the game.

Either way, it's a CK system bet. Let's see how it goes!

[flavo-ice]

Speaking of lineup stability, what I find particularly interesting is that St. Mary's gave up 84 points in their loss to Portland. In conference, they have given up 62, 54, 53, 46, 42, and 69(Gonzaga) on their way to a 5-1 record, 5-2 now with Portland loss.

This would indicate to me that Mills had a huge impact on their defense and not only is the loss impacting their ability on the offensive end of the court, but also on their scoring defense. That is a 25 point differential on scoring defense.

[cocknocker]

repski,

I see a 1st half line of -10 still on Greek,and 18 for the game, although some books have taken it down to 17.5. I am thinking of dropping the game spread for St. mary's and just rolling with the half. The less wagers the better, right? I am going to take off the game play and just roll with Michigan because I already played it and the Secret Plays. I was gonna wait on the St. Mary's and see what would happen with the number but with 50/50% on the game the line appears to be going down-

NO PLAY St. Mary's-18

[flavo-ice]

Flavo-ice, that game against San Fran. St Mary's won the first half by 13 and Mills had 19 for the game.

Either way, it's a CK system bet. Let's see how it goes!

If you read my posts, you will see I'm not talking about the 1h system play. I'm not fighting the system. It is what it is.

This discussion is about the game result.

[cocknocker]

Michigan however, is a beautifully crafted pick, and the line movement is in my favor. Penn State just beat Michigan State last game and the Wolverines are working with double digit revenge. I played it at 2 when the line was three. The line has since jumped to 4 with only 36% of bettors on their side. I think that this play along with the 2 Secret Plays will be just fine for the evening. I am beefed up the size of this play last night and went with a dime

[peterpan19]

only 1st quarter play for me today:
Jazz -1
lets get em

[oBaMa_MaNiA]

I wasn't saying anything against you. Just pointing out the 1H spread is close and Mills does have a big impact on the St Mary's team.

[Dexter]

2/6-

so many juicy, but conflicting angles in the hawks/bobcat game tomorrow. the bobcats have double revenge and the fact that they own atl at home (4-0 su/ats winning by 13ppg) working in their favor - but i just cant play a team first home off a 4 game west coast trip. no play

[cocknocker]

I'm sold flav-o-ice,

St. Mary's didn't cut it only because of the line movement with 50% of bettors on their side. And everyone please. I don't have a problem with someone playing the opposite of me. And my post last night wasn't a slight against the group. All that I'm saying is that if the appropriate criteria is there for a Secret Play, I'm playing it, regardless of any type of information or injury. I wasn't and I'm not mad at anyone having reservations about this wager. Hell a couple of times I had to take an outrageous 21 point line for the first half this year with TCU and Oklahoma in college football because it fit the criteria. Of course they covered. But as I said I have a lot of discipline when making these wagers. Same amount everytime, and down the line.

[CP Thrizzle]

Hey CK,

I've yet to play Michigan, and the line is already up to -4.5... If I buy a point to get them at -3.5, think it's still a good play?

[flavo-ice]

I wasn't saying anything against you. Just pointing out the 1H spread is close and Mills does have a big impact on the St Mary's team.

That is an understatement. Former Australian Olympic b-ball team member.

[TheLemonDropKid]

To be honest, gentlemen, I have no idea about the road record and all of that other bullbleep. And to be honest, I'm not going to look it up now or ever either. I have been rocking them for so many years that I stopped caring about those kind of things a long time ago. I never cared about where the game was played or any other circumstances. And I am playing these two today with the same exact wreckless abandon for $1500.00 apiece that I do ever time one comes up. Multiply 53 units times $1500.00 and you will see why I am not about to start looking up a thing, homies. And guess what? It's all on a seperate book so I see every penny. Shake off that loss gentlemen. I gave you a jewel that you can use for a lifetime. Can't trip off the imprfections when it's priceless.

I'm feelin' ya CK.......How quickly peeps forget the praise that they were showering you with when you were on an amazing hot streak. You hit a bump in the road and everybody falls off the bandwagon wanting to question your system. I'm hanging on to your neck like a little spider monkey my brutha....lol! It's gonna take a lot more than this to get me to question the secret play system.....I'll take that shizzle all the way to the bank baby. Keep your head up...and lets keep this thing rollin'.

[projock]

What book do most of you use for the CK secret plays. I have four open books that I have and I am wondering which do think is the best.

BOL luck tonight guys.

[Dexter]

just to be clear about double revenge. i like to see the team lose both road games at the other opponent, then you play them at home. if one team has won both games home and away, then there is no double revenge since the team that won clearly matches up well (having won on the road and home).

orlando tomorrow has already faced indy 3 times this year and beat them all 3 times (home and away) - so while this may look like triple revenge, its not since the magic clearly have the pacers number.

*dexter's double revenge - play the home team coming off of 2 road losses that season to the opposing team.

filter - the home team must be rested (no btb) and not coming off a 3+ game road trip on the other coast.

[Ludovike]

only 1st quarter play for me today:
Jazz -1
lets get em

peterpan
which books do you use? My main account is at bet365, they haven't offered the 1Q spreads so far. Give my regards to Dresden.

[oBaMa_MaNiA]

wow, Lakers game jumped a whole point to +7 in the last 30 minutes. Facincting.

[JGILL50]

Damn CK u beat me to it Michigan's line movement cannot be ignored lets cash it
Obama Celtics it is

[50lipa]

wow, Lakers game jumped a whole point to +7 in the last 30 minutes. Facincting.

Guess KG is playing huh.

[cs11787]

Hey Ck how high do you like Michigan up to? at 4.5 now.

[shoebox]

KG hates losing more than any other player in the NBA.....With that said he will be out for blood tonite...Revenge, yes but a pissed off Boston team=$$$$$...Lakers have a fallen tree, all they gotta worry about now is Gasol. This game is gonna be ugly for the lakers on offense. Boston wins this one with ease 10+ points

Booked
Boston -5.5
Under 204.5

[cocknocker]

I also made a small $25.00 parlay with

Jacksonville State-1
San Diego-5.5
Michigan-3.5 (hook bought)
Detroit U+11
Temple+8.5

[TheLemonDropKid]

where are you??...hope everything is well

lotsa pucks tonight...

I've been wondering the same thing the last couple of days.....maybe his on the NHL threads??? I'll have to go look for him.

[solobass]

Michigan however, is a beautifully crafted pick, and the line movement is in my favor. Penn State just beat Michigan State last game and the Wolverines are working with double digit revenge. I played it at 2 when the line was three. The line has since jumped to 4 with only 36% of bettors on their side. I think that this play along with the 2 Secret Plays will be just fine for the evening. I am beefed up the size of this play last night and went with a dime

man i hate going against you, but i would not trust michigan with my money right now. michigan is 2nd worst field goal % in the big ten, last in 3 ball %, penn. st defends the 3 well and the wolverine offense thrives on 3's. they have no inside game and need those j's to fall. penn st. did beat them at home by 15 a short time ago and that works in michigan's favor as it is hard to beat the same team twice in such a short timespan. conference play has been most unkind to michigan so far.

[cocknocker]

Michigan will not take any prisoners in this game, cs11787. I would at the least take a hook off of that line though and play it at 4. I have it at 2, so essentially they have to beat the Nittany Lions by 4 in order for me to cash too.

[Dexter]

booked plays-

celtics -7 (big)
pacers +5.5

[cocknocker]

solobass,

that's precisely why I am playing Michigan. The numbers don't seem to add up. The Nittany Lions are in a terrible position having just dispatched of the Spartans. I think that hey are doing the same thing that you are doing and looking at Michigan as a step down in class. Alwyas good to take a team when their stock is low, and not to take a team when their stock is high. With double digit loss revenge at play here, I say Michigan wins this one going away. Penn State is 0-5 straight AND ats in games in Michigan. The reasons you gave for taking Penn State in this game cannot refute that trend with revenge put in the mix and the big win by Penn State.

[Dexter]

wow, Lakers game jumped a whole point to +7 in the last 30 minutes. Facincting.

and 52% of the public is on the lakers - RLM in affect....