CK's Carjacking the NCAA Threads Leans for Thursday 2/5/09

[Killer Chihuahua]

You know one thing I've noticed the last couple of nights? It seems like we get some kind of 2nd Half fever and start pissing money away in a "reactionary" way later in the night......especially if we've taken some losses on the day. (unless it's just me doing that)

Doesn't it just make more sense to just take your lumps for the day and move on and wait for tomorrow?

I think I could use more discipline with this.......make up your mind on your picks for the day and THAT's IT......you're done....then just live with your results.......thoughts?

Lemon,
I also like to catch teams in the second half who have star players and big men in foul trouble.....if you can catch this situation it can be very profitable by fading that team...You have to pick your spots

[solobass]

killer, i know what you mean. the experience here in this thread has been great because you can bounce ideas off of one another.

another nugget
lakers are 8-3 ATS in b2b games this year.

[nonsense48]

lemon, like last nite where early in the day i had no intention of playing nebraska and just capped the game real quick to try and make up for some losses in the day and look what happened...LOST but betting 2nd 1/2's and 3rd -4th Q are much different as you have a better feel for how the game is going thus far

[cocknocker]

assuming buying one point costs 20 cents (from -110 to -130), this is a clever strategy only if over time more than 20% of what would have lost without buying a point are won with buying a point. Siting an example is not useful at all and so is telling that you have learnt this for a long time.

I can see your point, but i can also see my point as well. I can't go back categorically and give you how many times buying a point or a hook has saved me, and it would be ridiculous to do so. But when it saved me just last night I think that speaks volumes about it's effectiveness by pointing out a very recent example of it working to the guy who inquired about it. But i am not hurting for money so I don't mind it one bit playing games at -130.

Tell me something, do you like to wager on baseball coolkaren? If so then the prospect of playing a basketball game at -130 to increase your chances of winning shouldn't bother you one bit. It is very rare to find baseball games at -110 when wagering. You get used to playing games at -150 or so in that sport. And yes it is very necessary for me to point out that I learned how to use a point and a hook a long time ago. It was my comment and i think that it's fair that i stand behind it. You do things your way and I'll do mine my way. And i won't comment on how you do things unless you ask me to. Notice how i didn't ask for you to comment on the way that I wager or the way that I chose to respond to someone asking me about it's effectiveness. I don't recall me asking for your numbers on what you feel would be clever if I did it the way that you propose. When you have the kind of money that i do from doing this thing of ours I deserve a little more respect than that. I'm not a penny pincher when it comes to playing against the number or getting on key numbers or under key numbers. I think I have a pretty good idea of what i am doing by now....

Thank you for your input, but I choose to continue doing things my way.

[haserfauld]

The funny thing is I had one of the best days I've had yet last night, after having lost quite a bit. I went in big (big for me at least) on VCU half and game (6 units total), and lost it. I then went 10-1 on NBA picks (pretty much 1U each, ended up about +3 units). If only I had picked a different time to start playing the special plays . Regardless, I've been following CK for quite some time and I'm definitely up thanks to his picks. Keep it up!

[schaapattack]

dex i didnt post the play until the line movement to -9.5..and i knew it was about a 90 percent ck play because thats what he said on his post

[nonsense48]

i'm feeling better and better about my bos-5' as the day goes on and if it goes up a little more i'm gonna pound l.a. for a nice middle

[jaymac82980]

somebody want to explain to me why I shouldnt take the over for the pacific game? besides the fact that it looks too good to be true.

[schaapattack]

sorry my error. this is the same clown that flamed me on my san diego st. pick the other night giving all kinds of great "insight" about how unlv would cash and san diego st. won straight up. i think he used caps then too.

not sure why you are starting the name calling sir..not needed...all i did was give my opinion on the Laker game. Never said i was locking in a play...i just personally never lay 7 against the lakers...just my opinion...i hope your celtics bets win....but it might be a no play again.....and I was on UNLV last week...are you right 100% of time time? i dont think so

[solobass]

i'm feeling better and better about my bos-5' as the day goes on

i am definitely in the minority here and if boston cashes be sure to pile it on over here. i get a little squeamish going up against so many of you here.

[nonsense48]

DEX, did you lock in on bos yet? if so, at what line?

[Dexter]

somebody want to explain to me why I shouldnt take the over for the pacific game? besides the fact that it looks too good to be true.

why does it look to good to be true? uc riverside plays to the under 75% of the time. what caught your eye?

[djpremier36]

Anybody going to tease the game at BOS -3 and LAL +11?

Boston should win within the 4 to 10 range

[repski]

somebody want to explain to me why I shouldnt take the over for the pacific game? besides the fact that it looks too good to be true.

thanks for the 1st half over on GS last night...I was able to go to be after the first Q..

[schaapattack]

Hey dex in all due respect...im not going to sit here and tell you why i Like the lakers as a play..i never said i did...what i did say was if i played the game it would be the lakers soely because i will never lay 7 or more against the lakers.......Im not playing the game as of right now....its not a top play...there are better plays in my OPINION.

[The Oddsbreaker]

Go ahead and give kobie +7 and you will pay for it after its over....very dumb to give lakers that many...show me 1 game this year the lost by 8 or more!

Schaap, the last time the this Lakers squad faced this Celtics squad in Boston they got run off the court by 39 in the biggest game of their lives. Yeah, that was eight months ago but the players are just about the same. No Bynum = no interior toughness. Revenge factor in play + the Celts will play relentless team D on Kobe. Not to mention, the Lakers are playing their 3rd game in 4 days on the other side of the country. Nothing is a lock so the Celts may not cover but I believe the Celts are the play here

[schaapattack]

Gl to all the celtics backers though..i never hope players lose i just dont like the play on boston.

[Dexter]

DEX, did you lock in on bos yet? if so, at what line?

yeah, 7

[repski]

Everyones all over the Bos/LA game I LOVE Indiana getting 5 and over against the Sixers...and I'm a Sixers fan...

[Dexter]

Gl to all the celtics backers though..i never hope players lose i just dont like the play on boston.

no worries - the way you posted, i just thought you were making a play on la....which would be great - we need some la money to push this line down!

[haserfauld]

Anybody going to tease the game at BOS -3 and LAL +11?

Boston should win within the 4 to 10 range

I'm looking at a 6-point teaser for surity:

bos -1
lal +13

comes out to -150. Possibly a hedge (not a fan of hedging) on the lakers ML at +250. Something like 5U to win 3.33U on the teaser, and 2U to win 5U on the moneyline. Unless boston wins by >13 there's no loss. Unless it ends bos -1, that could suck.

[jaymac82980]

riverside is 4-4 o/u ats in conference play. pacific is 5-3 o/u ats. right now the o/u is 116. each team's average floats around 60 pts, a little more for pacific, a little less for riverside. however, where riverside is averaging 59 points per game, they should score slightly more due to the fact that pacific D averages giving up 62. I'm not saying blow out, but I can see this one going to around 125-130. especially if it is close.

[jaymac82980]

tease the celts with the pacers. boston -3/indy +9.5.

[schaapattack]

lol Dex...sorry wont help you with the spread

[schaapattack]

Im sure i will hear about it tonight when Boston wins by 40..Be easy on me

[haserfauld]

tease the celts with the pacers. boston -3/indy +9.5.

My book has indy +6, I like that many points. I quit teasing a while ago because i felt like i was throwing away money, this one looks decent.

[esz04]

I parlayed Boston ML with the Davidson SP for the 1st Half. Just seemed like a nice way to add some value to the Special Play. I do believe the Celtics will cover, but Kobe is always capable of keeping it close. Just don't see the Celts losing this one.

[Dexter]

riverside is 4-4 o/u ats in conference play. pacific is 5-3 o/u ats. right now the o/u is 116. each team's average floats around 60 pts, a little more for pacific, a little less for riverside. however, where riverside is averaging 59 points per game, they should score slightly more due to the fact that pacific D averages giving up 62. I'm not saying blow out, but I can see this one going to around 125-130. especially if it is close.

ok - so all 4 of their overs have come in conf play..i hear ya now

[jaymac82980]

I don't know dex, it's a late game, so I'll be potsy - and sit on it- lame.. Anyways, I'll probably hit it up later, depends on how my games go. I got a lot of games locked in, so hopefully I win the early ones.

[repski]

I like 3 hockey plays...wish hockeytown was around....Wash ML/over and Nash/Ana under...

[jaymac82980]

holy cow, warriors +9.5 tomorrow. I think I may be teasing that with the over fellas.

[jaymac82980]

alright guys, I'm peacin' out. be back late night.

good luck

[repski]

I parlayed Boston ML with the Davidson SP for the 1st Half. Just seemed like a nice way to add some value to the Special Play. I do believe the Celtics will cover, but Kobe is always capable of keeping it close. Just don't see the Celts losing this one.

you cant soil the SP...by parlaying it...lol

[ANDYW15]

Haven't got to time to give a full breakdown today but my picks for what its worth are

jaZZ -3
Pacers +6 (bought the .5 afer being stung by the cavs -5.5 line yesterday)
Davidson -12.5 CK Secret Play of course
Puck Play - Kings/Caps over 5.5

Also parlayed the above as I feel real strong about my picks and obviously CK Secret Play ATS stats speak for themselves.

edit - I would have taken the green machine if I got them when I should have at -5, now it's -7 and a no play for now. I am still confident on the -7 but I have tied up my money in the other plays as I am more confident in these.

[TheLemonDropKid]

Okay.....this is what I have so far and I'm looking for some guidance from you guys with the final 2.

Davidson -12 1H (Obvious, thanks CK)
Boston -7 (Thanks Dex..a lil nervous w/the fade comments on Bos)
Michigan - 4.5 (Thanks CK...a lil nervous w/fade comments here 2)

Those are locked in.


Need help with choosing 2 out of these:

Lakers/Celts UNDER 206
Pacers +5.5
Butler -11
Xavier -9

Or any other suggestions for the final 2.