LTA's NBA Plays

[dmitean]

Nice work LTA with the Under! Was on it myself.
I'm not sure I will be on anything tonight, but I do agree with the Over in Miami.
Pacers on the other hand, very tough choice. Usually I will always take the home team in Game 2 after losing Game 1, but I feel that this series was priced wrong to begin with and that Magic got a good chance against the Pacers, much better than the odds imply.
Indiana very young team with hardly any playoff experience and Orlando played really well in Indiana this season. The last think I expect in this series is for the home court to be the deciding factor.
9 points is a lot to lay in such spot, though Pacers will probably win this one and can cover as well of course. Magic are 3 - 0 SU in Indiana this season and they won the first game of the series without getting to the line (and that probably won't change), but also without shooting too great from three point line.

I'm not playing Orlando here for sure, so wish you luck, but it's a very tough bet in my eyes.

3 units on such a low total as it is in Chicago, you got balls my friend! I think there is a good chance you're right, but I just can't take Under in such low totals, because one bad quarter can destroy the bet easily.

Good luck on your plays!

[Intwoition]

He's pointing a gun at you in his avatar, of course his cacahuetes hang very low.

[JM92]

Still kiling myself over here for not having taken the Clippers and also the Mavs who are my two dog picks for the first round. Unfortunately and basically no time to handicap these games over the weekend but I did tail all your plays. I also like the over and the Pacers here even though I still questioning their mental toughness a little bit.

Also took the Heat on the spread again.

[SlickRick1382]

Still kiling myself over here for not having taken the Clippers and also the Mavs who are my two dog picks for the first round. Unfortunately and basically no time to handicap these games over the weekend but I did tail all your plays. I also like the over and the Pacers here even though I still questioning their mental toughness a little bit.

Also took the Heat on the spread again.

If you would of taken the Clippers then you would of gotten lucky. They had no business winning or covering... =p

[JM92]

It does not matter friend. They did win, and they did cover and it happened because of why I think they will be a sleeper and they will beat Memphis in 6 games and If it wasn't for their coach I would think they might just sneak up on everyone and at least get to the conference finals. They have cp3 and then they have a whole bunch of guys who can get you back into the game in a hurry. If there's one thing I really really learned from last year is that three point shooters and guys that can put the ball in the basket at every time are as valuable as everything else. God I miss watching Peja and the 2010/2011 Mavs.

[Les_Nuts]

Chandler is playing FYI, he was pathetic last game though. If Knicks put up 85 we should have a good shot at this

[JM92]

Im on the Heat as well. I believe this will end around th 110-80s. The Knicks, at least apparently, have no chance. Great capping Lta.

[SlickRick1382]

Im on the Heat as well. I believe this will end around th 110-80s. The Knicks, at least apparently, have no chance. Great capping Lta.

You think so?

The loss of Iman Shumpart (not 100% on spelling) is going to hurt them immensly, especially on the defensive end as he did a decent job on Wade most of the time but I think you're selling the Heat short.

There is no chance they lose by 30 and they won't even lose by 20. I would almost even be willing to take them at +10 tonight

Edit: Edited last sentence

[TC Woods]

[bigjah15]

I'm liking teaser of over 181 n heat -5.5

[NaccAttack]

Nice hit buddy!

[walv89]

good call on the knicks over!!!

[ses_d]

nice hit LTA

[Arty]

Nice hits on Pacers/Heat Over dude!

[ses_d]

[dlunc3]

[G-manFan]

Congrats on the with hoops tonight.......

[dshaffe4]

Preciate it LTA!!!

[bmur714]

Thank you for the plays LTA


On to tomorrow...

[Love The Action]

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season

135 - 122 = +3.65x

NBA 2011-2012 Playoffs 4/30/2012 Recap

2 - 0 =+2x

NBA 2011-2012 Playoffs

4 - 2 = +3.8x

NBA 2011-2012 Season

139 - 124 = +7.45x

Good luck on Tuesday.

[Pivotpoint]

Nice work LTA. Always enjoy your write-ups. Bulls Under on Tuesday, looks attractive. Rose was just a brutal loss for Bulls and fans. Feel horrible for the kid, but glad to hear he was at the Berto center today. Less confident now on how they will fare through-out the playoffs , but feel they will come out and play "Lock Down" defense on Tuesday. GL going forward in Playoffs.

[meader99]

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season

135 - 122 = +3.65x

NBA 2011-2012 Playoffs 4/30/2012 Recap

2 - 0 =+2x

NBA 2011-2012 Playoffs

4 - 2 = +3.8x

NBA 2011-2012 Season

139 - 124 = +7.45x

Good luck on Tuesday.

Fantastic job, sir.

[ronnieseah]

Without rose, bull will still win the ring.

[r1kkie]

Keep up the good work LTA!

[Love The Action]

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 5/1/2012

Play #1

76'ers/Bulls under (176.5) 3x (Locked)

Without Rose, I put this total at 173.5 and I expect a lot of defensive adjustments by both teams. This should be a half court game predicated on defense. JLIII and Watson do not match up well with Philly's backcourt who I expect to frustrate Chicago's remaing point guards. I think the Bulls will really struggle scoring points in the 2h of the game and I expect a very low scoring 4th quarter. I am rolling with the under for 3x. Good luck.

Play #2

Celtics/Hawks over (172) 1x (Locked)

The books have made a classic overadjustment based on the last game going under and the loss of Rondo. This game should not be below the 175 that I have so I am rolling with the value on the over for 1x. Good luck.

[alamo]

Love both plays tonight LTA. Good luck to everyone who plays them.

[metsy]

Thanks for the info. Quick question, if I was able to get 172 1/2 slightly cheaper than 172, aren't I better off? Essentially the minimum total of the game to win would have to be, and can only be 173 with either of those bets. So whether I pick O172 or O172 1/2, 173 is the minimum. Sound right to you?

Play #2

Celtics/Hawks over (172) 1x (Locked)

The books have made a classic overadjustment based on the last game going under and the loss of Rondo. This game should not be below the 175 that I have so I am rolling with the value on the over for 1x. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

Thanks for the info. Quick question, if I was able to get 172 1/2 slightly cheaper than 172, aren't I better off? Essentially the minimum total of the game to win would have to be, and can only be 173 with either of those bets. So whether I pick O172 or O172 1/2, 173 is the minimum. Sound right to you?

No. Why risk losing on a final of 172 when you can push. 172.5 at -105 is not the same as 172 at -110. You can use a half point calculator to confirm exactly what that half point is worth, however, I would never risk getting "hooked" in the nba playoffs when the lines are razor sharp if I could avoid it. GL

[mbs4]

Thanks for the info. Quick question, if I was able to get 172 1/2 slightly cheaper than 172, aren't I better off? Essentially the minimum total of the game to win would have to be, and can only be 173 with either of those bets. So whether I pick O172 or O172 1/2, 173 is the minimum. Sound right to you?

http://www.sbrforum.com/betting-tools/half-point-calculator/

[metsy]

Forgot about the push. Break even is better than losing.

No. Why risk losing on a final of 172 when you can push. 172.5 at -105 is not the same as 172 at -110. You can use a half point calculator to confirm exactly what that half point is worth, however, I would never risk getting "hooked" in the nba playoffs when the lines are razor sharp if I could avoid it. GL

[dlunc3]

No. Why risk losing on a final of 172 when you can push. 172.5 at -105 is not the same as 172 at -110. You can use a half point calculator to confirm exactly what that half point is worth, however, I would never risk getting "hooked" in the nba playoffs when the lines are razor sharp if I could avoid it. GL

LTA, I value your opinion and have a quick question in regards to this topic if you get a free minute. Seems like you would take a +105 line on say under 7 on an mlb game, rather then paying -115 for under 7.5. At such a low total where runs are scarce, isnt that 1/2 run much more crucial then a 1/2 point the nba since there is approximately 25x more points scored? Just curious to see your thoughts if you have a free minute... huge day today for you-- best of of luck

[GetLaidGetPaid]

LTA what are your thoughts on the hawks covering?

[Dexter]

Nice. Already on under myself. Your totals guru in nba so I feel better now

[Love The Action]

LTA, I value your opinion and have a quick question in regards to this topic if you get a free minute. Seems like you would take a +105 line on say under 7 on an mlb game, rather then paying -115 for under 7.5. At such a low total where runs are scarce, isnt that 1/2 run much more crucial then a 1/2 point the nba since there is approximately 25x more points scored? Just curious to see your thoughts if you have a free minute... huge day today for you-- best of of luck

There is no one answer. Each situation has its own variables. It all depends on what my model projects and how much value remains with or without the half point. If I have a MLB total at 6 and I can get 7 at plus odds or 7.5 at -130 juice, I will probably take the plus odds. If its a big play, I might pay the juice. It all depends on all the factors that you use to make the play in the first place. In basketball, it's much less likely that it's worth paying -120 or more. For example, I bought the hook about 9 times this NBA season. However, I would not pay -120 on a regular basis because that's an easy way to go broke. At times, it is a worthwhile strategy but not all the time. Likewise, in baseball, sometimes you want the extra half run and sometimes you don't depending on the price. In general, I would stay away from any totals play in any sport that carries juice above -120 because that is unlikely to be a long term winning play. It's all about price and you want the best price whenever possible.

[dmitean]

Great work last night LTA! Good luck tonight!
Was sure you will be on Memphis tomorrow...