LTA's NBA Plays

[Speedy88]

Rip and Rose playing real good

Rip will be the X-Factor for the Bulls this postseason.

[blaze4g]

mikea33 i think celtics will also make a deep run but people will laugh at us when we say that, just gotta wait and see.

[convick]

Celtics can definitely beat Chicago. They arent making it past Miami though..

[Les_Nuts]

Rip will be the X-Factor for the Bulls this postseason.

I hope so, still can't see us beating the Heat. I have Celtics at 80/1 which I took before the ASB and I am going to do Heat to win the East right after this game at -110. I think that covers both teams that have a chance at winning the conference along with the Bulls.

[Speedy88]

I hope so, still can't see us beating the Heat. I have Celtics at 80/1 which I took before the ASB and I am going to do Heat to win the East right after this game at -110. I think that covers both teams that have a chance at winning the conference along with the Bulls.

I don't see it either. Once LBJ guards Rose the Bulls will struggle to score.

[demarco2]

Bulls over hits with 3:30 left in the game. Hopefully some more scoring to setup a big under next game like LTA suggested being possible.

[absolutkaos]

great start to the playoffs LTA! ca$h it!

[Les_Nuts]

Good read LTA, I had Bulls TT over 91.5 so even more of a breeze than the game total. Really liking the under in OKC, grabbed it at 193.5, down to 192.5. I think Dallas has a genuine chance of getting a win there

[bleedtoledo]

Sorry nuts, looks like your boy is out for rest of playoffs

[Les_Nuts]

Jinx city from me! Why was he in the game ffs

[jas19illini]

Sorry nuts, looks like your boy is out for rest of playoffs

Who???

[dlunc3]

ughh.. thats ugly... bad coaching decision.. no need to be in there.. sucks though bc its just a freak accident

[bmur714]

Who???

Derrick Rose has been taken to a local hospital for an MRI on his left knee.
Rose planted wrong and immediately crumpled to the court in serious pain, and he needed help getting into the Bulls' locker room. This is an absolutely wrenching injury for Chicago, though we'll continue to hope for the best until test results are known. If Rose is forced to miss any games, the Bulls are accustomed to playing with C.J. Watson and backup John Lucas.

Source: Dan Woike on Twitter Apr 28 - 3:56 PM

[meader99]

Do you not remember the Heat Celtics series last year, after the heat won the 2nd round series they acted like they were world champions???? Thats for a reason....Because both Wade and Lebron have not beaten the Celtics throughout there whole career. And the Celtics were not even healthy, in the least bit.

I am 100% thinking with my heart...but no one knows the Celtics better than me and from a basketball standpoint I really think there going to make a deep run.

Yeah, I remember it. The Heat got over the hump of not being able to beat the Celtics. Not much different than when MJ's Bulls had to get by the Pistons. The Celtics are a good team and are capable of beating the Bulls and Heat, BUT it's highly unlikely. The main point was that you can't be serious that the Bulls and Heat are "praying" that they don't see the Celtics, suggesting that the 2 best teams in the East actually fear the Celtics.

[BeardedTaco]

Chicago	<center> G </center>	Derrick Rose	ACL	OUT	39	21.8	3.4	7.9	0.9	0.7
is out for the season.

[mikea33]

Celtics heat eastern final seems like its going to happen

[meader99]

Celtics heat eastern final seems like its going to happen

Wow, the Celtics already beat the Hawks???

[Sport_Fish]

Wow, the Celtics already beat the Hawks???

Hawks could do Heat a big favour here by knocking out Celtics.

[mikea33]

Yeah, I remember it. The Heat got over the hump of not being able to beat the Celtics. Not much different than when MJ's Bulls had to get by the Pistons. The Celtics are a good team and are capable of beating the Bulls and Heat, BUT it's highly unlikely. The main point was that you can't be serious that the Bulls and Heat are "praying" that they don't see the Celtics, suggesting that the 2 best teams in the East actually fear the Celtics.

Did the Bulls and Heat win there series yet?

Just a prediction.
Sorry I dont see the Horford and Pachulia-less Hawks beating the Celtics........There 2 of the Hawks best rebounders, and thats the only concern of the Celtics I have.....

[Les_Nuts]

Celtics heat eastern final seems like its going to happen

Hawks series will be struggle and we can still easily beat you w/out Rose. Yes Boston/Hawks will have a better chance but its not like we turn into some below average team without him. Also, we still have to get by Philly lol

[mikea33]

Yes you still have to get my philly and we need to get by the hawks. but i dont see either losing.

But, in a 7 game series idk if the Bulls are even close to an elite team without Rose.

[mikea33]

who said something about the under in thudner game? I am looking to see if LTA plays it, but jeez thunder at home with the crowd rocking i can see them running n gunning

[alamo]

Sorry for Rose. Not a bulls fan but noone likes to see what happened that kid last night. I hope he can recover fully in time from that injury.

[Love The Action]

Sorry for Rose. Not a bulls fan but noone likes to see what happened that kid last night. I hope he can recover fully in time from that injury.

Everyone is shocked here in Chi-town....tough news to be sure.

[Love The Action]

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season

135 - 122 = +3.65x

NBA 2011-2012 Playoffs 4/28/2012 Recap

1 - 0 = +1x

NBA 2011-2012 Playoffs

1 - 0 = +1x

NBA 2011-2012 Season

136 - 122 = +4.65x

Good luck on Sunday.

[Love The Action]

NBA 2011-2012 Playoffs 4/28/2012 & 4/29/2012

Play #1

Celtics/Hawks under (179) 1.5x (Locked)

Even though I look to back overs in the first game of the playoff series, I am going to be chasing the under in this series because we are getting solid value. I have this game set at 175 giving us four points of value at 179 and this one might tick back up to 180 before dropping down for a closing number that I expect to be around 177. This series is all about the half-court game, slow pace and defense. It will be an intense series as these teams know each other well and I expect it to be a very physical series. This is a solid value play and I am rolling with the under for 1.5x. Good luck.

Play #2

76'ers/Bulls over (174) 1x (Locked)

This sets up perfectly for a big play on the under later in the series, but in this first game the books are daring us to take the over by giving us nice value. Well, I'm never one to pass up value and I like the over in this game. I have the total set just under 176.5 giving us almost a full three points of value. One thing you will learn this playoffs is that money is to be made on big plays on the under (I will have some 5x'ers I am sure), however, the under is rarely the right play in the first game of the playoff series before the intensity and pressure really inflates (except for a celts/hawks matchup lol). In this game, even though the two teams are defensive specialists, they can also both hit 90 points with ease, especially when you consider the Bulls improved offense overall with more dependable shot makers then last year's playoffs and Philly's improved offense in the last ten or so games of the regular season. Bottom line is this play provides us with a nice value play with relatively neutral refs and if it hits will give us more value on a game 2 under play with a nice zig zag possibility. The playoffs are all about the zig zag theory and you will see me employing that consistently through the championship. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Jazz/Spurs over (206) 1x (Locked)

Pinny is juicing the under at 207 between -113 and -115 causing my local to drop to 206. I have this game at 209.5 so I am pulling the trigger at 206. You may want to wait as most outlets may drop to that number soon, but as long as you get this play under the key number of 207 you should be fine (I would also play 206.5 which is the most widely available number at the moment). Even though the Spurs have improved their defense, I think Utah can break 100 on them by feeding Jefferson down low and swarming the paint. Regardless, Utah will not be able to stop the Spurs' balanced attached that can kill you from the inside and the outside. I would not be surprised to see that Spurs make it over the 210 mark. Most people may assume the Spurs have trouble scoring in day games because they are older, however, the Spurs are actually 4-0 in favor of the over in day games this season. Dick Bavetta is one of the refs today along with Fraher and McCutchen. Whenever Bavetta refs you have to consider the over because of his penchant for crazy calls and Fraher was a huge over guy until this season. I think we get an average or above average amount of call today. I have this game set at 209.5 giving us over three points of value and I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

NBA 2011-2012 Playoffs 4/28/2012 & 4/29/2012

Play #1

Celtics/Hawks under (179) 1.5x (Locked)

Even though I look to back overs in the first game of the playoff series, I am going to be chasing the under in this series because we are getting solid value. I have this game set at 175 giving us four points of value at 179 and this one might tick back up to 180 before dropping down for a closing number that I expect to be around 177. This series is all about the half-court game, slow pace and defense. It will be an intense series as these teams know each other well and I expect it to be a very physical series. This is a solid value play and I am rolling with the under for 1.5x. Good luck.

Play #2

76'ers/Bulls over (174) 1x (Locked)

This sets up perfectly for a big play on the under later in the series, but in this first game the books are daring us to take the over by giving us nice value. Well, I'm never one to pass up value and I like the over in this game. I have the total set just under 176.5 giving us almost a full three points of value. One thing you will learn this playoffs is that money is to be made on big plays on the under (I will have some 5x'ers I am sure), however, the under is rarely the right play in the first game of the playoff series before the intensity and pressure really inflates (except for a celts/hawks matchup lol). In this game, even though the two teams are defensive specialists, they can also both hit 90 points with ease, especially when you consider the Bulls improved offense overall with more dependable shot makers then last year's playoffs and Philly's improved offense in the last ten or so games of the regular season. Bottom line is this play provides us with a nice value play with relatively neutral refs and if it hits will give us more value on a game 2 under play with a nice zig zag possibility. The playoffs are all about the zig zag theory and you will see me employing that consistently through the championship. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Jazz/Spurs over (206) 1x (Locked)

Pinny is juicing the under at 207 between -113 and -115 causing my local to drop to 206. I have this game at 209.5 so I am pulling the trigger at 206. You may want to wait as most outlets may drop to that number soon, but as long as you get this play under the key number of 207 you should be fine (I would also play 206.5 which is the most widely available number at the moment). Even though the Spurs have improved their defense, I think Utah can break 100 on them by feeding Jefferson down low and swarming the paint. Regardless, Utah will not be able to stop the Spurs' balanced attached that can kill you from the inside and the outside. I would not be surprised to see that Spurs make it over the 210 mark. Most people may assume the Spurs have trouble scoring in day games because they are older, however, the Spurs are actually 4-0 in favor of the over in day games this season. Dick Bavetta is one of the refs today along with Fraher and McCutchen. Whenever Bavetta refs you have to consider the over because of his penchant for crazy calls and Fraher was a huge over guy until this season. I think we get an average or above average amount of call today. I have this game set at 209.5 giving us over three points of value and I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #4

Nuggets (+5) 1x (Locked)

I was contemplating just betting the ML at +175 or more, but I'll take the points. I think Denver has a great chance to take this series and I think this is a very close game today which could be decided on the last shot. Without Artest, LA does not have the "enforcer" on defense which is so important against a fast-paced, offensive-minded team like Denver. Plus, without Artest, LA does not have the body guard for Kobe on the court. Yes, Denver should be able to dominate down low with Gasol and Bynum. However, the Lakers are just not a team that blows teams out at home and I certainly don't think they will do that today with Denver. All four of the games between these two teams were decided by 6 points or less except when Denver won by 9 at home. In this case, I think we are getting 2 points of value because I have this game set at +3 with my model considering these teams very equal. None of the officials are particularly favorable to the home teams and I just see the Lakers to be on the decline. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the Nuggets for 1x. Good luck.

[remypom]

Celtics hawks jump up to 179.5

[TC Woods]

Line for the Boston game was at 178 since I first looked yesterday after you posted that play.

This morning I see 179 1/2...

You aware of anything that would have caused this move?

Thanks

[dmitean]

I agree with you on both totals today, but Lakers will win this one. Lakers lost both first games of the series last season and they remember that. This time they will come 100% focused and will win. 5 points of course can come in to play, but not even close to a value for me.
Lakers have home court, best three players on court, basketball IQ advantage, playoff experience advantage, height advantage, hunger advantage and that should be more than enough against the weakest team making the playoffs in the West...

[Love The Action]

Line for the Boston game was at 178 since I first looked yesterday after you posted that play.

This morning I see 179 1/2...

You aware of anything that would have caused this move?

Thanks

Just the natural ebb and flow of playoff money. Does not concern me at all.

[gtboy]

I agree with you on both totals today, but Lakers will win this one. Lakers lost both first games of the series last season and they remember that. This time they will come 100% focused and will win. 5 points of course can come in to play, but not even close to a value for me.
Lakers have home court, best three players on court, basketball IQ advantage, playoff experience advantageheight advantage, hunger advantage and that should be more than enough against the weakest team making the playoffs in the West...

lol, how u know that?

[Les_Nuts]

I like the Nuggets to win the series. If they can steal one of these two away games it gives them a good chance because Lakers will struggle in Denver, I just played the ML instead of the +5

[Love The Action]

I agree with you on both totals today, but Lakers will win this one. Lakers lost both first games of the series last season and they remember that. This time they will come 100% focused and will win. 5 points of course can come in to play, but not even close to a value for me.
Lakers have home court, best three players on court, basketball IQ advantage, playoff experience advantage, height advantage, hunger advantage and that should be more than enough against the weakest team making the playoffs in the West...

At least you are not wishy washy and like to take a side. However: (1) the Lakers are not a great home team like some other playoff-caliber teams; (2) just because LAL have the top three players, Denver has the next 10 best players and are deeper than Lakers; (3) basketball IQ comes from your coach and Karl is the better strategic coach in the playoffs than Brown; (4) the playoffs experience is not necessarily true when you consider only Kobe and Gasol are the only two players (maybe Bynum for one year) that have such experience on the current Laker team; (5) LAL does have the height, but Denver has the speed and quickness; and (6) to say that LAL is any more or less "hungry" than Denver is ridiculous comment (why would the Lakers "want it" more than Denver; motivation is equal here). GL

[dmitean]

Obviously Denver have the depth advantage and coach advantage, but I disagree about IQ coming from the coach. We all saw how many times Karl was frustrated with the way Carmelo executed the offense and many times it's hard for the best coach to make players simply do the simple, but right things and it takes right bunch of players for coach to really influence, otherwise, it can be bad.
As far as hungry, I feel and of course I could be wrong, that Kobe and Pau and Bynum waited a whole year to prove people wrong. Pau went MIA in the playoffs, Bynum finished it with an super ugly foul on Barea and Kobe, well people just started saying he is too old.
He went to Germany, he is healthy, rested and angry. Obviously that doesn't mean that Denver don't want to win, but I remember how amazingly well Pau played Boston since that loss in the Finals and how focused he came in to the playoffs the year after that and with all the respect to other players, I really don't know anyone that is driven more than Kobe in this league.

I took the Under 180 in Boston as well, but I'm worried about line movement. In the end of the season, almost each time I went against live movement, I lost. Hope it won't be the case today...