LTA's NBA Plays

[suicidekings]

Good luck in the playoffs, LTA. I like the Spurs total, and I'm considering the Nuggets as well, for the series. The Lakers are extremely vulnerable when their bench is on the floor, and the Nuggets are going to challenge them.

[Love The Action]

Should have waited....I could have gotten 205.5 on that Spurs over. Not worried about the line movement, that's pretty common for playoff game with a big total like this, especially when these teams just played and they didn't get over 190.

[Love The Action]

Good luck in the playoffs, LTA. I like the Spurs total, and I'm considering the Nuggets as well, for the series. The Lakers are extremely vulnerable when their bench is on the floor, and the Nuggets are going to challenge them.

Thanks SK. Same to you buddy.

Yes, I think that is a wise play on the Nuggz series. I missed out on the best price, so I may pass or make an action wager with hedge possibilities. I would not be surprised to see the Nuggz win this first game which will get you a nice price on the Lakers down the line if need be.

[Jsosh]

I have Spurs Jazz O205.5 1dime
Nuggets +4.5 2dimes. Lets cash this

[G-manFan]

Damn Jazz, once again bites us in the ass......

[Jsosh]

that one pissed me off. After the first half looked like we were gona blow the over out the water.

[ph0208]

Denver will really struggle in this series with their lack of a true big man

[H1Cypher]

Denver will really struggle in this series with their lack of a true big man

You say this after it is clear what the advantages are and Game 1 is well under way. You're the man buddy. Real men stand up before the game is over, little girl.

I took the Lakers pregame in my own thread not defending anyone, I just wonder if the rest of your 28 posts are this insightful smarty pants .

[Les_Nuts]

I wonder if the tennis/life coach will make an appearance tonight. Books are currently offering +140 on a post if the nuggets fail to cover

[Jsosh]

the goes 3 fuckin dimes if the nuggets lose also. Anyone have any tips for the clippers game

[suicidekings]

I don't see how Chris Paul doesn't score more than 20 tonight. It's in his nature to try to take command of the game in tough matchups, especially when his bigs are being challenged inside. I think CP3 takes a lot of shots and makes a lot of trips to the FT line tonight, and barring injury, he should clear 20 points.

I took it earlier today at Over 20 (-117) and then again as the under got juiced at O20 (+116).

[Speedy88]

I don't see how Chris Paul doesn't score more than 20 tonight. It's in his nature to try to take command of the game in tough matchups, especially when his bigs are being challenged inside. I think CP3 takes a lot of shots and makes a lot of trips to the FT line tonight, and barring injury, he should clear 20 points.

I took it earlier today at Over 20 (-117) and then again as the under got juiced at O20 (+116).

I've been looking at that same prop. Only thing I'm worried about is his injured groin. Hate to play an OVER prop on a guy who is banged up.

[wguan2]

what do you guys think of this boston atlanta series? i really think boston takes this series easily and not to mention boston wins this first game.

[SlickRick1382]

I agree. I don't usually like laying chalk but but a sizable bet on the Celtics to win the series at -220. Just don't see how they don't win this series, rather easily ...

[hawley]

I don't see how Chris Paul doesn't score more than 20 tonight. It's in his nature to try to take command of the game in tough matchups, especially when his bigs are being challenged inside. I think CP3 takes a lot of shots and makes a lot of trips to the FT line tonight, and barring injury, he should clear 20 points.

I took it earlier today at Over 20 (-117) and then again as the under got juiced at O20 (+116).

You would have to think Paul is guaranteed to score 6 points minimum down the stretch be it closing the game with FTs or scoring in a close contest.

[Love The Action]

NBA 2011-2012 Playoffs 4/28/2012 & 4/29/2012

Play #1

Celtics/Hawks under (179) 3x (Locked)

Even though I look to back overs in the first game of the playoff series, I am going to be chasing the under in this series because we are getting solid value. I have this game set at 175 giving us four points of value at 179 and this one might tick back up to 180 before dropping down for a closing number that I expect to be around 177. This series is all about the half-court game, slow pace and defense. It will be an intense series as these teams know each other well and I expect it to be a very physical series. This is a solid value play and I am rolling with the under for 3x. Good luck.

Play #2

76'ers/Bulls over (174) 1x (Locked)

This sets up perfectly for a big play on the under later in the series, but in this first game the books are daring us to take the over by giving us nice value. Well, I'm never one to pass up value and I like the over in this game. I have the total set just under 176.5 giving us almost a full three points of value. One thing you will learn this playoffs is that money is to be made on big plays on the under (I will have some 5x'ers I am sure), however, the under is rarely the right play in the first game of the playoff series before the intensity and pressure really inflates (except for a celts/hawks matchup lol). In this game, even though the two teams are defensive specialists, they can also both hit 90 points with ease, especially when you consider the Bulls improved offense overall with more dependable shot makers then last year's playoffs and Philly's improved offense in the last ten or so games of the regular season. Bottom line is this play provides us with a nice value play with relatively neutral refs and if it hits will give us more value on a game 2 under play with a nice zig zag possibility. The playoffs are all about the zig zag theory and you will see me employing that consistently through the championship. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Jazz/Spurs over (206) 1x (Locked)

Pinny is juicing the under at 207 between -113 and -115 causing my local to drop to 206. I have this game at 209.5 so I am pulling the trigger at 206. You may want to wait as most outlets may drop to that number soon, but as long as you get this play under the key number of 207 you should be fine (I would also play 206.5 which is the most widely available number at the moment). Even though the Spurs have improved their defense, I think Utah can break 100 on them by feeding Jefferson down low and swarming the paint. Regardless, Utah will not be able to stop the Spurs' balanced attached that can kill you from the inside and the outside. I would not be surprised to see that Spurs make it over the 210 mark. Most people may assume the Spurs have trouble scoring in day games because they are older, however, the Spurs are actually 4-0 in favor of the over in day games this season. Dick Bavetta is one of the refs today along with Fraher and McCutchen. Whenever Bavetta refs you have to consider the over because of his penchant for crazy calls and Fraher was a huge over guy until this season. I think we get an average or above average amount of call today. I have this game set at 209.5 giving us over three points of value and I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #4

Nuggets (+5) 1x (Locked)

I was contemplating just betting the ML at +175 or more, but I'll take the points. I think Denver has a great chance to take this series and I think this is a very close game today which could be decided on the last shot. Without Artest, LA does not have the "enforcer" on defense which is so important against a fast-paced, offensive-minded team like Denver. Plus, without Artest, LA does not have the body guard for Kobe on the court. Yes, Denver should be able to dominate down low with Gasol and Bynum. However, the Lakers are just not a team that blows teams out at home and I certainly don't think they will do that today with Denver. All four of the games between these two teams were decided by 6 points or less except when Denver won by 9 at home. In this case, I think we are getting 2 points of value because I have this game set at +3 with my model considering these teams very equal. None of the officials are particularly favorable to the home teams and I just see the Lakers to be on the decline. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the Nuggets for 1x. Good luck.

Added 1.5x to Play #1 for total of 3x. Correct units denoted above.

The refs favor the under and the total has never made it back to the opener despite the majority of all bets on the over. I expect Boston and Atlanta to battle it out in a low scoring game so I am going to step out and roll with the under for 3x. Good luck.

[No coincidences]

Wow. Good luck LTA.

[demarco2]

Added 1.5x to Play #1 for total of 3x. Correct units denoted above.

The refs favor the under and the total has never made it back to the opener despite the majority of all bets on the over. I expect Boston and Atlanta to battle it out in a low scoring game so I am going to step out and roll with the under for 3x. Good luck.

BOL! I'm on it for 3x as well.

[Les_Nuts]

I don't see how Chris Paul doesn't score more than 20 tonight. It's in his nature to try to take command of the game in tough matchups, especially when his bigs are being challenged inside. I think CP3 takes a lot of shots and makes a lot of trips to the FT line tonight, and barring injury, he should clear 20 points.

I took it earlier today at Over 20 (-117) and then again as the under got juiced at O20 (+116).

I heard he will play limited minutes tonight, most likely under 30. This is not at all confirmed so don't take my word for it, just letting you know

[SlickRick1382]

LTA if you're on. Do you ever attempt middling?

Half ends at 84 with us needing 95 points to reach the 179 mark.

2H O/U is listed at 88 or 88.5 depending on book. Leaves about 7 points to hit both. Would you ever under any circumstance middle or a portion of the bet? Just curious ...

[Love The Action]

Wow. Good luck LTA.

I am always very aggressive in the playoffs. Good luck to you as well.

[Love The Action]

LTA if you're on. Do you ever attempt middling?

Half ends at 84 with us needing 95 points to reach the 179 mark.

2H O/U is listed at 88 or 88.5 depending on book. Leaves about 7 points to hit both. Would you ever under any circumstance middle or a portion of the bet? Just curious ...

Never say never, but I generally just make my bet and roll with it. The more wagers you make the more variance you have to deal with.

[Love The Action]

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season

135 - 122 = +3.65x

NBA 2011-2012 Playoffs 4/29/2012 Recap

1 - 2 = +0.80x

NBA 2011-2012 Playoffs

2 - 2 = +1.8x

NBA 2011-2012 Season

137 - 124 = +5.45x

[SlickRick1382]

I didn't middle it as I felt the defensive intensity picked up and the game was slowing down. Let it ride, thankfully.

Didn't see you went 3 full units on it though, only had my 1.5 but i'll take the lovely and easy win. Could of went to OT and still covered this type of game.

Good luck for tomorrow bud ....

[No coincidences]

Nice hit LTA.

[alamo]

As solid as they come. Well done LTA and thanks for the 3x play.

[Dexter]

I am always very aggressive in the playoffs. Good luck to you as well.

tons of information in front of us - raise the stakes time.

great big hitter on the under....i had it for 2u.

[Love The Action]

Thank you gentlemen

[Love The Action]

NBA 2011-2012 Playoffs 4/30/2012

Play #1

Knicks/Heat over (184) 1x (Locked)

I have this game at 188 giving us four points of value on the over. The books overcompensated for the last game and underestimated the Knicks' ability to hit threes against what is a surprising poor three point defense. I am rolling with the value and riding the zig a taking the over for 1x. Good luck.

[Intwoition]

I don't post much, but I do enjoy LTA's write ups and I blindly follow 83.1415 % of them. Thx LTA.

[Love The Action]

NBA 2011-2012 Playoffs 4/30/2012

Play #1

Knicks/Heat over (184) 1x (Locked)

I have this game at 188 giving us four points of value on the over. The books overcompensated for the last game and underestimated the Knicks' ability to hit threes against what is a surprising poor three point defense. I am rolling with the value and riding the zig a taking the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Pacers (-9) 1x (Locked)

I would put this at -10.5 without Howard and without considering Indy's recent loss. Indy needs to show some pride and crush this Orlando team from the start of the game. They cannot allow this game to be close, so I am going to lay the points and roll with the Pacers for 1x. Good luck.

[Intwoition]

Eofing amazing. I would guess IP win by 17ish..oer... yeah I'm fun when I drinksz. My "official cap" puts this at -10.14159265. But that is approximate.

[Love The Action]

NBA 2011-2012 Playoffs 4/30/2012

Play #1

Knicks/Heat over (184) 1x (Locked)

I have this game at 188 giving us four points of value on the over. The books overcompensated for the last game and underestimated the Knicks' ability to hit threes against what is a surprising poor three point defense. I am rolling with the value and riding the zig a taking the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Pacers (-9) 1x (Locked)

I would put this at -10.5 without Howard and without considering Indy's recent loss. Indy needs to show some pride and crush this Orlando team from the start of the game. They cannot allow this game to be close, so I am going to lay the points and roll with the Pacers for 1x. Good luck.

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 5/1/2012

Play #1

76'ers/Bulls under (176.5) 3x (Locked)

Without Rose, I put this total at 173.5 and I expect a lot of defensive adjustments by both teams. This should be a half court game predicated on defense. JLIII and Watson do not match up well with Philly's backcourt who I expect to frustrate Chicago's remaing point guards. I think the Bulls will really struggle scoring points in the 2h of the game and I expect a very low scoring 4th quarter. I am rolling with the under for 3x. Good luck.

[remypom]

Ridiculous how Memphis scores 3 pts on 8:30 of time. They deserve to lose. 27 pt lead, what clowns..

[TC Woods]

All 3 are LOCKED!!!!

Thanks dude