LTA's NBA Plays

[Dmil]

LTA

I respect you wanting to spend more time with your family, but why don't you just come on once a day & post whatever picks you made? I am sure it would only take a matter of 2-3 min, come on & say here are my picks good luck.

Your reputation is as solid as anyone's on this site, and I don't think anyone would care if you never made write ups. Your picks would be as good as gold to most & it would only take like 2 minutes of your time to post them.

Anyway, just food for thought as I am the type that I would never "retire", as that is a long time & I can tell you do enjoy this. Regardless, best of luck in whatever you finally decide, as you are one of the best cappers here.

Agreed

[apurvaas]

Agreed

me 2

[Love The Action]

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 4/9/2012

Play #1

Thunder/Bucks over (210) 1x (Locked)

I have this game set at 213 giving us three points of value and I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Looks like we beat the closer by 2.5 points making this as +EV as it gets. Now let's cash! Card is final. Good luck.

[mikea33]

Thanks LTA.

I know your thinking of leaving......but can we atleast get hot one more time for christ's sake !! I'm feeling a good week.

[JM92]

I beat all my four closers tonight even though I wasn't able to get as many plays as wanted. Played washignton, these over along with you LTA, the Jazz (even though only got them at -1) and also the Warriors. Now lets see what happens. 12-2 in the last 14 beating the closer, including your plays, and I'm 6 units down. Curious thing is I actually won the Memphis/Miami under that did not beat the closer. Just immense bad luck, hope to turn it around just as I hope we turn things around here to.

Good luck buddy

[Love The Action]

I beat all my four closers tonight even though I wasn't able to get as many plays as wanted. Played washignton, these over along with you LTA, the Jazz (even though only got them at -1) and also the Warriors. Now lets see what happens. 12-2 in the last 14 beating the closer, including your plays, and I'm 6 units down. Curious thing is I actually won the Memphis/Miami under that did not beat the closer. Just immense bad luck, hope to turn it around just as I hope we turn things around here to.
Good luck buddy

You are 12-2 in your last 14 and six units down?

I hate to say it but if that's true then it's not bad luck, that's poor money management my friend. Did you go HUGE on one of those or what? Anyway, doesn't matter, just keep making +EV plays by beating the closer at 80% or better over 1,000 plays +, you will be a profitable investor. Good luck.

[mikea33]

You are 12-2 in your last 14 and six units down?

I hate to say it but if that's true then it's not bad luck, that's poor money management my friend. Did you go HUGE on one of those or what? Anyway, doesn't matter, just keep making +EV plays by beating the closer at 80% or better over 1,000 plays +, you will be a profitable investor. Good luck.

He saying he beat the closer 12-2 and there not hitting, which will come around eventually. +ev plays are +ev for a reason and they'll hit. Just keep the faith JM92.

LTA sent you a PM, hope you get around to reading it!

[Love The Action]

He saying he beat the closer 12-2 and there not hitting, which will come around eventually. +ev plays are +ev for a reason and they'll hit. Just keep the faith JM92.

LTA sent you a PM, hope you get around to reading it!

Well he said that he is "12-2 in his last 14 beating the closer....and down 6 units." That means he won 12 of 14 games, but lost 6 units.

[Les_Nuts]

Well he said that he is "12-2 in his last 14 beating the closer....and down 6 units." That means he won 12 of 14 games, but lost 6 units.

Must have just phrased it wrong, I'm sure he isn't stupid enough to do a 20 unit play or something, doesn't seem like that guy anyway.

[mikea33]

He is saying say he locked it up at 200 the closing line was 203......that happened 12 out of 14 times but hes been losing. Just like all of us, the bad variance/+ev plays are taking a hit lately. Will sure bounce back

[Love The Action]

Must have just phrased it wrong, I'm sure he isn't stupid enough to do a 20 unit play or something, doesn't seem like that guy anyway.

That's what I was thinking it too....just phrased it wrong.

[JM92]

Must have just phrased it wrong, I'm sure he isn't stupid enough to do a 20 unit play or something, doesn't seem like that guy anyway.

Exactly this. I'm sorry, even though my english is, overall really good, I tend to misspell somethings specially late at night. To be honest, I even do these in Portuguese so...

I went 4-10 on those plays LTA, therefor 6 units down more or less.

Just like Mikea said, it's happening to me basically what's happening to you. I always play the same unit, 2% of my bankroll that I update regularly with all the money I have in 3 different books, so fortunately I can still get back to a green April before the playoffs. But just kills me to know I made some bad plays throughout March, heck, even you didn't beat the closer those many times if I'm not mistaken, and still managed 2 units gain. Now I've been making supposedly excellent plays and can't seem to "buy a bucket". Just gotta be patient and grind it out. Lot's of season left, lot's of years left to live hopefully!

[Love The Action]

Exactly this. I'm sorry, even though my english is, overall really good, I tend to misspell somethings specially late at night. To be honest, I even do these in Portuguese so...

I went 4-10 on those plays LTA, therefor 6 units down more or less.

Just like Mikea said, it's happening to me basically what's happening to you. I always play the same unit, 2% of my bankroll that I update regularly with all the money I have in 3 different books, so fortunately I can still get back to a green April before the playoffs. But just kills me to know I made some bad plays throughout March, heck, even you didn't beat the closer those many times if I'm not mistaken, and still managed 2 units gain. Now I've been making supposedly excellent plays and can't seem to "buy a bucket". Just gotta be patient and grind it out. Lot's of season left, lot's of years left to live hopefully!

I got burned a few times, but still beat the closer over 75% in March and almost 80% on the season. Hang in there bud, the goal of sports investing is to ride out the bad times and be able to keep your head above water with your bankroll intact so when things turn around you will be able to get aggressive and hit a few big paydays. GL

[mikea33]

Sweeeeeeeet ending to the half. Westbrook is crazy good at getting up the floor in a matter of seconds and hitting. Thought it was a foul too, what a play!

LOL. I wouldnt be surprised to see a 2H line of over 110. If its less i may pound it. This game should be at 130 if the Bucks his anything in the 1st quarter

[CheeseHead]

Sweeeeeeeet ending to the half. Westbrook is crazy good at getting up the floor in a matter of seconds and hitting. Thought it was a foul too, what a play!

LOL. I wouldnt be surprised to see a 2H line of over 110. If its less i may pound it. This game should be at 130 if the Bucks his anything in the 1st quarter

Just a warning...the game will probably slow down quite a bit more in the 4th quarter

[JM92]

Patience is no doubt one of the best things I've learned around here.

And what an end to that quarter, we were starting to get really off pace and, all of a sudden, boom goes dynamite! 12 points in the last minute

[jas19illini]

Is it really only 8-6 after the first quarter of the spurs game or is my score app messing up??? Lol

[JM92]

I am loving the Knicks at + 9 tommorow. Last game proved me what I thought: Carmelo is on fire right now and with that, the Knicks have two things that work perfect against the Bulls: a great defense, even if not as great as the Bulls, and a guy that can just get buckets one-on-one all game long. Deng looked exhausted on that one and I would not be surprised if that happened again. And I'm not questioning the effort from the Bulls at all... but the Knicks just need these games much more.

[mikea33]

This bets toast.
Milwaukee isnt even playing Jennings and Ellis. What the ****.

[CheeseHead]

This is a typical 2nd half from the Bucks. I am running really bad right between NBA and start of baseball season...was able to make a lot more money last basketball season, this is rough.

[mikea33]

What a horrible stretch in the fourth quarter. was over pace with 8 left and they didnt score for minutes.

[alamo]

Thanks for the play LTA. Another night where we beat the closer but variance goes against us. There's a hot run coming. I say it starts tomorrow

[Love The Action]

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season Recap 4/9/2012

0 - 1 = -1.1x

NBA 2011-2012 Season

126 - 114 = +5.65x

[shimeon40]

Was a big ask to keep scoring 52 a quarter okc/mil..just one slow down in a quarter and your stuffed..exactly what happend...just saying,not knocking..just risky as trying to bump over 210 points in any game.

[Love The Action]

Not much on the board today. Keep your eyes out for confirmation on the new rose injury. If he plays, the bulls have value at -8. Hmmm....

[CaptainNemo89]

Was a big ask to keep scoring 52 a quarter okc/mil..just one slow down in a quarter and your stuffed..exactly what happend...just saying,not knocking..just risky as trying to bump over 210 points in any game.

using that logic, we should just bet the under on every total of 210 and above, and we would make a killing.... but i dont think it works that way buddy

[JM92]

Not much on the board today. Keep your eyes out for confirmation on the new rose injury. If he plays, the bulls have value at -8. Hmmm....

Will be glad to read some thoughts on that. I'm already on the Knicks + 9 and I think they can even take it SU (yep). It would be a first going against you.

Here's my thoughts in case you missed it and care:

I am loving the Knicks at + 9 tommorow. Last game proved me what I thought: Carmelo is on fire right now and with that, the Knicks have two things that work perfect against the Bulls: a great defense, even if not as great as the Bulls, and a guy that can just get buckets one-on-one all game long. Deng looked exhausted on that one and I would not be surprised if that happened again. And I'm not questioning the effort from the Bulls at all... but the Knicks just need these games much more.

[Love The Action]

Will be glad to read some thoughts on that. I'm already on the Knicks + 9 and I think they can even take it SU (yep). It would be a first going against you.

Here's my thoughts in case you missed it and care:

I think we'll just have to disagree on this one. I wonder why the books opened at 9 without an adjustment in favor of the knicks after defeating the bulls and with a possible rose injury. I mean, the books knew the money would pour in on the knicks even if they opened up at 8 or 8.5. Instead, they willingly dangled that 9 out at the open for everyone to jump on and the majority of money has followed suit with almost 70% of all bets on ny. Hmmmm.... Based on the last game, I would say the bulls have more room for improvement than the knicks. I dont think melo will hit 4 of 5 three pointers with a guy in his face in chicago like he did in ny. Only time will tell, but I have a feeling ny struggles tonight. Good luck.

[JM92]

But you will think that Rose will hit them like he did in NY against Shumpert, which will almost certainly harrass him all game long once again? I'll take my chances with the Knicks on this one mate. And I did not went on the Knicks until I saw some line movement in their favor at Pinny. As soon as they dropped the Knicks + 9 fom - 102 to -108 I knew I had to get + 9 at my local while I could. Hope you get - 7.5 and game ends up as an eight point win for the Bulls!

Btw, gotta be Philly, right?

[RAVENSFAN]

I think we'll just have to disagree on this one. I wonder why the books opened at 9 without an adjustment in favor of the knicks after defeating the bulls and with a possible rose injury. I mean, the books knew the money would pour in on the knicks even if they opened up at 8 or 8.5. Instead, they willingly dangled that 9 out at the open for everyone to jump on and the majority of money has followed suit with almost 70% of all bets on ny. Hmmmm.... Based on the last game, I would say the bulls have more room for improvement than the knicks. I dont think melo will hit 4 of 5 three pointers with a guy in his face in chicago like he did in ny. Only time will tell, but I have a feeling ny struggles tonight. Good luck.

BOOM! Exactly my thoughts LTA! I could lose huge but I decided to tease 2 Units last night CHI -4 and OVER 179.5. That's at Pinny on a 5pt Side/7pt Total and the Over has went up 2pts since then. Good luck but I think CHI is the right side as well.

[apurvaas]

Derrick Rose has been downgraded to doubtful for tonight's game against the Knicks. from sportsinsights

[JM92]

another two closers beat probably today. went 2-1 last night only lost the over. let's see what happens tonight.

I played the Sixers btw

[Love The Action]

But you will think that Rose will hit them like he did in NY against Shumpert, which will almost certainly harrass him all game long once again? I'll take my chances with the Knicks on this one mate. And I did not went on the Knicks until I saw some line movement in their favor at Pinny. As soon as they dropped the Knicks + 9 fom - 102 to -108 I knew I had to get + 9 at my local while I could. Hope you get - 7.5 and game ends up as an eight point win for the Bulls!

Btw, gotta be Philly, right?

The line move to 7.5 is because of rose probably sitting. Kc johnson just tweeted that paxon said they "aren't going to risk anything with rose" so I think rose sits. No play for me so good luck. However, as far as the comment about rose in the last game, yes, I think it would be more likely to see rose shoot 8-26 overall and 4-8 from beyond the arc for 29 points than to see melo go 16-31 and 4-5 from beyond the arc for 43 points against a bulls defense that will keying on him. That was a great performance by melo and a soso performance by rose. We shall see. Good luck dude.

[JM92]

The thing is, I feel like those 4-22 from two point range, plus the turnovers, were no fluke. That kid shumpert is the real deal. I was able to get -115 at a local at + 9 with the line already 7, 7.5 in some other bookies so I jumped on it again, makin' it a two unit play. Just seemed to much value not to burn the lazy ass trader who did not update the line in time!

[meader99]

The line move to 7.5 is because of rose probably sitting. Kc johnson just tweeted that paxon said they "aren't going to risk anything with rose" so I think rose sits. No play for me so good luck. However, as far as the comment about rose in the last game, yes, I think it would be more likely to see rose shoot 8-26 overall and 4-8 from beyond the arc for 29 points than to see melo go 16-31 and 4-5 from beyond the arc for 43 points against a bulls defense that will keying on him. That was a great performance by melo and a soso performance by rose. We shall see. Good luck dude.

The line when the Bulls hosted the Celtics last week was -7 and that was without Rose as well..... I read a lot of folks in this forum thought the Celts were free money that night.