LTA's NBA Plays

[Love The Action]

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 4/11/2012

Play #1

Hawks/Celtics under (179) 1x (Locked)

I have to wonder if this won't go back up tomorrow at some point, but I think the better choice is to ensure this number rather than risk it going down below 179. We cashed the last under in this series last month with a final score of 155. That gives us about 20 points of wiggle room. Granted, both teams shot around 39% in that game and 33%-37% from three, so it's possible this one eeks over into the 182 range if they drastically improve those numbers. However, Boston is coming off a high scoring game against the Heat with a letdown possible. They shot 60% against the Heat and I would be surprised to see the repeat that performance b2b against two top ten defenses. Boston is 8-8 O/U in b2b games, but this game is against Atlanta who is like minded as to PACE and half court play. Boston has played a bit faster of late, but with the fatigue of playing their 4th game in 5 days I don't think they will be looking to run. Atlanta is coming off a rare 3 game break and are 1-2 O/U in this spot this season averaging around 185 points. In this game, I would not be surprised to see Atlanta come out a bit rusty after putting up three of their highest scoring games of the season against woeful competition such as the Bobcats twice. I have this game set at 177 so not a ton of value, but I think it's enough to play this for the reasons mentioned and I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

76'ers (-4) 1x (Locked)

Crazy day between work and early mlb, so im just posting this now. Most outlets have since moved to 4.5 and thats playable as well. You may want to wait and see if it drops back down though. Philly has every reason to win and toronto has every reason to lose for a better draft slot. I have this game set at -5.5 and I am rolling with philly for 1x. Good luck.

[jas19illini]

Not to mention Toronto might shut down Bargnani for the rest of the season, which would def help our play tonight.

[Love The Action]

Not to mention Toronto might shut down Bargnani for the rest of the season, which would def help our play tonight.

No "might" about it. He is already out according to SI and roto.

[jas19illini]

No "might" about it. He is already out according to SI and roto.

Even better.

[mikea33]

LTA.....atlanta hawks total shot up to 181..................that should be a cause of concern, but I really think I might lay it in and put 3x or so. I see these teams matchup all the times and its ussually a BATTLE playoff atmostphere game. This is the Hawks favorite game of the year, and a big game for the celtics. im going to the game tonight so I'll put in the good word to Doc to slow the pace

Let us know whay you think.....

[remypom]

180.5 is celtics game..

[mikea33]

Game is at 181 now on my local book.

I might pound it, at this number there is no reason not too.........crazy over money for no reason....dont know if its the sharps of the public.........but im assuming the public is overemphsizing the recent scoring surge of these teams........I dont think the pace was going above to push the total over.
Here are some stats I think you all will find interesting....

"

When Bradley and Garnett play together, Boston gives up 88.8 points per 100 possessions, allows 38.8 percent shooting and forces nearly one turnover for every assist. This is scary stuff, and it's not one of those small-minute flukes, either -- they've played 658 minutes together. You think that's impressive? How's this: When Rondo and Bradley play together, opponents average 82.2 points per 100 possessions. That's nearly 20 points below the league average.

Over the last 15 games, Boston has allowed 92.9 points per 100 possessions, about 8.5 points per 100 possessions better than the league average. Over the last 10 games? That number is down to 89.1, a ridiculous 12.5 points per 100 possessions below the league's overall average."

[musictoscience]

I feel a little better seeing you're on 76ers. Went on them too, glad you're back giving us some nice views over the games. Good luck LTA.

[fitguy67]

i stumbled across this gem of a thread recently...about BTCL (beating the closing line)...lotsa good "back and forth" on BTCL (from a few years ago in the ThinkTank, but the discussion/debate is not dated in the least)...thot it might be appreciated over here as well

http://forum.sbrforum.com/handicapper-think-tank/716057-misunderstanding-beating-closing-line.html

[meader99]

Whats going on in Boston? My book took the game off the board at 6pm. Who's out???

[meader99]

Pietrus is back and Ray Ray is out?

[mikea33]

Pietrus will help the under

[Dexter]

Play #2

76'ers (-4) 1x (Locked)

Crazy day between work and early mlb, so im just posting this now. Most outlets have since moved to 4.5 and thats playable as well. You may want to wait and see if it drops back down though. Philly has every reason to win and toronto has every reason to lose for a better draft slot. I have this game set at -5.5 and I am rolling with philly for 1x. Good luck.

did you know this was 4in5 for philly? i know you usually dont fade that situation, but nice call.

[Vasco]

Wow another easy win with the Sixers, never thought I'd see the day. Good call dude.

[Les_Nuts]

6ers are the anti jazz! And they have won us a fair few unders as well

[ses_d]

[Love The Action]

did you know this was 4in5 for philly? i know you usually dont fade that situation, but nice call.

Yes, but wasn't really worried about it because Philly is 9 or 10 deep with Collins generally distributing minutes evenly and they really needed this game while Toronto just might tank it from here on out. I didn't think fatigue would be a factor tonight.

You're right though, I generally like to fade the team with fatigue such as 4 in 5, but those plays have not been hitting for me since March so I have laid off that angle of late.

I don't know about you, but I can't wait for the regular season to get over with and start the playoffs. Last month has killed me and I gotta get myself on a roll. Good luck buddy

[JM92]

What was I thinking not playing the under. Also had a big lean on the Jazz and the Lakers but passed... damn. Spurs have Grizzlies tommorow I don't think they will get back to this one but the line movement scared me out of the Lakers.

Let's hope we get this Celtics under now and get a nice 2-0 night.

[SlickRick1382]

Yes, but wasn't really worried about it because Philly is 9 or 10 deep with Collins generally distributing minutes evenly and they really needed this game while Toronto just might tank it from here on out. I didn't think fatigue would be a factor tonight.

You're right though, I generally like to fade the team with fatigue such as 4 in 5, but those plays have not been hitting for me since March so I have laid off that angle of late.

I don't know about you, but I can't wait for the regular season to get over with and start the playoffs. Last month has killed me and I gotta get myself on a roll. Good luck buddy

76ers need every win possible from here on out to make the playoffs so it was a good cal despite the possible fatigue issue. You're right though, with the minutes they all play, fatigue shouldn't be an issue. This is also a very young team that should be able to handle it.

Looks like Hawes is really making a huge difference out there and it couldn't of come at a better time for the 76ers.

Can't wait to get into the playoffs and get that + money with you bud

Glad you're here for the time being.

[SlickRick1382]

What was I thinking not playing the under. Also had a big lean on the Jazz and the Lakers but passed... damn. Spurs have Grizzlies tommorow I don't think they will get back to this one but the line movement scared me out of the Lakers.

Let's hope we get this Celtics under now and get a nice 2-0 night.

So long as no OT we're looking pretty good. They need a to score 4.86 points per minute at this point to go over the posted total. The 2nd and 4th Quarters have been a blessing in this game ...

[SlickRick1382]

Hoping Celtics come out with a good play from the huddle and score. OT would just be a killer ....

[SlickRick1382]

Hoping Celtics come out with a good play from the huddle and score. OT would just be a killer ....

Horrible play from the Celtics. Waste the entire 24 seconds and that's the best shot you can get off?

[CheeseHead]

So long as no OT we're looking pretty good.

Did you really have to say that? Enough with this variance BS, when is it going to go OUR way??

[jas19illini]

god damn it

[CheeseHead]

god damn it

This....exactly this. God. Damn. It.

[ses_d]

oh comeeeeeee on. OT lets get this!

[SlickRick1382]

If nothing else the commentary for this game is hilarious. The calls have been really bad but the commentary over the bad calls have me cracking up.

Come on Celtics, hold on and win by 2!!!!

[SlickRick1382]

Did you really have to say that? Enough with this variance BS, when is it going to go OUR way??

Variance is on our side.

Game goes to OT and we still pull it out. What's not to love? 6 points scored in OT

[meader99]

Cash that under boyzzzzz!!!!!!!

[bmur714]

the horrible calls by the refs that always fuk us over....actually went in our favor... take it and run with this one boys

[bradnowell]

ill take it 6 points in ot and 2 winners

[ses_d]

cash out! excellent call LTA even with a OT against us.

[jas19illini]

[meader99]

Yeah, old Tommy Heinson was on the refs bad.

[ifiwaspresident]

I think it's safe to say you capped the ever loving shit out of this game.