LTA's NBA Plays

[meader99]

OK buddy. You go follow Henry Hill long term and see where that gets you.

Based on that comment, I see that you have no idea what you are talking about. You should do a search about Henry Hill before you put all your BR on one of his plays. Don't say I didn't warn you.

Good luck with your future endeavors.

A little losing streak will just get rid of the get rich quick boys. They saw LTA doing well and instead of following money management principles and watching unit size releases, they thought they could blindly throw undisciplined wagers around. These guys now want to jump up and down over a handful of losses, when in reality had they used proper money management they'd still have money left for the hot streak due to come. Now, you don't even have to ask them to exit stage left........they have no money left........

[aussieH]

Are you for real mate

[aussieH]

That was directed to that Simeon guy with the crap comments

[mikea33]

Are you even serious with this question

Wow.....do you really think im worried because of 4 bad days? Welcome to the harsh reality of sports investing. Guess what? Cold streaks happen to everybody. It has nothing to do with a "system" because im not a system guy. Its called "variance" and we have just been on the losing side of some very close games where we just miss cashing by a few points. You might want to google "variance." As far as +ev plays, you can't get any more +ev than last nights plays as we beat the closer by three points and it closed on the exact number my model predicted (ie 214). I cant control denvers ice cold shooting in the 2h alk we can control as the investor is making +ev plays and +ev has nothing to do with the result of the game, its all about staying ahead of the market and I continue to do that on a daily basis. The wins will eventually come around sooner or later.

I suggest you read some books about sports investing because you really come off as an inexperienced investor. Ive been spoiling everyone that followed over the last month as we never had more than a 1.1x losing night. Well variance caught up to me. Obviously, that was not going to last forever and I have been expecting a cold streak. Here it is...you just have to ride it, keep making solid plays and soon variance will turn back in yourr favor. So, to answer your question, no I am not worried in the least. This is nothing more than the natural peaks and valleys of a long season. GL.

LTA, was not insulting you at all it seems you took it that way. I meant that more in the sense of the NBA that it may be more diffucult to pick winners. I understand variance, and bad beats etc I was more concerned with the NBA. Seems you took offense to that, my fault
For wording it weirdly.

BOL dude.

[absolutkaos]

I'm off for work....good luck today gentlemen. And leave the negative comments alone. The cure for all that is winning and the best part of a losing streak is the winning streak that follows. Let's start that winning streak today. Good luck.

LTA, even with the losses piling up right now, based on your history i know we're still going to come out ahead of the game at the end of the season....looking forward to the rest of this season, and the start of MLB grind, that one is going to be fun....keep up the great work...

Cheers, AK

[TC Woods]

I can't believe I just wasted about 3 minutes reading all of that dribble from the negative folks attacking LTA. Geeech, get a clue. Why take the time to sling shit? Just leave the thread, move onto to somewhere else to obtain advise.

LTA and the regular crew... let's get this today.

[MrXYZ]

I have a lot of respect for LTA but no matter how good a capper is, it's my money on the line when I hit the submit button at my sportsbook. I pretty much realise that doing this for living is a pipe dream but I enjoy this hobby. Putting in the time to do my work & then comparing it to guys like LTA so see how they arrived a their decisions is kinda fun and a great way to learn.

Tail anyone at your own peril. If your idea of research is going into this forum & checking who's on what play, then you deserve no sympathy for losing money. It's just ridiculous to expect money for nothing.

[absolutkaos]

Heat at -3.5 against Philly have got to rebound from this slump....two big losses Orlando & Chicago, and a couple nights off to stew about the losses will make them ready tonight...any one else thinking the Heat are due for a win tonight?

[Creepingdoom]

Much respect to LTA, it's not his fault if you can't survive a cold streak.

[TheLandlord]

I am thinking the Heat are due as well. 76ers deserve respect at home and getting Hawes back helps but I think the Heat want to get back on track against a solid eastern conference opponent.

[PS3]

With Hawes back, he can contribute defensively very much. With all the pieces back together for the Sixers, I personally like under 189. Knowing that Sixers are only giving up 10.7 turnovers per game, Heat may not be able to capitalize in terms of points off TOs. Which they mostly do during games.


Whatcha think LTA? And line do you have for this game?

[dmitean]

I like Thunder, Orlando, Heat and the Lakers today. Orlando should be glad that Dwight saga is over and Nets really a mess right now. Didn't get Dwight, half of the roster missing. Heat off two losses should bounce back and they own Sixers lately. Minny been in many trade talks, but no trade. Off OT, Love injured again and Gasol should be all happy about him still being a Laker. I am worried about Fisher's trade and how players will respond.
Thunder off home loss (won in Denver in between) and against team that easily won them not too long ago? Easy call...

[TC Woods]

I like Thunder, Orlando, Heat and the Lakers today. Orlando should be glad that Dwight saga is over and Nets really a mess right now. Didn't get Dwight, half of the roster missing. Heat off two losses should bounce back and they own Sixers lately. Minny been in many trade talks, but no trade. Off OT, Love injured again and Gasol should be all happy about him still being a Laker. I am worried about Fisher's trade and how players will respond.
Thunder off home loss (won in Denver in between) and against team that easily won them not too long ago? Easy call...

How do you think the firing of the coach and the trades affect Portland? Playing in Chicago....

[dmitean]

How do you think the firing of the coach and the trades affect Portland? Playing in Chicago....

Portland are a mess. It was obvious that Nate couldn't manage a team with Felton and Crawford, so the moment they stayed, he just had to go. On the other hand, I can't imagine LA being thrilled about what happened and other guys as well.
They tried to dump almost the entire roster, traded Wallace for draft pick, released Oden - with Nate getting fired it just seems that Portland admitted that all the work they done in the last 5 - 6 years, building the team around Roy/ Oden/ LA under Nate's coaching, was a failure and they try to start from scratch. Not sure that it's what LA was hoping for and I'm not sure how safe Felton and Crawford feel coming to the summer.
3 - 4 games should gives us some answers I guess.
I don't think we will see Portland giving Knicks performance after D'Antoni's resignation, but it's hard to tell.
Besides betting, I think that Camby really doesn't have any luck with trades...

[fitguy67]

been following ( not tailing) lta for a while now and felt the need to chime in here. imagine a loaded coin where the probability of heads is 54%. if you toss this coin say 500 times it will come up heads very close to 54% of the tosses with a very high probability. however you could be sure that if you look at the results you will find some streaks of tails, maybe even 5 or 6 in a row at some points.
keep it up lta- our 54% coin (at least)

I'll just add that when you've got a weighted 54% coin (or a bucket of 54% black marbles from which to draw) at -110 (1.909decimal)...at those odds u'd need only 52.38095% winners to break even (1/1.909)

you've got a long-term +eV proposition...in fact your expected gain over time is exactly 3.1% [54/52.38095]...that's 3.1% on every dollar you bet...substantial return over a season...much better than any bank interest

LTA's long-term winning % on these -110 (ie. 52.38095% break-even) bets seems to be much closer to 55% than 54%, explaining why his yield is closer to 5% than 3%.

Only caveat is that there will inevitably be waves of heads/red-marbles that our bankroll must withstand, otherwise you've crashed before the inevitable winning waves kick in...hence the need to size your bets safely and consistently...

[hawley]

I'll just add that when you've got a weighted 54% coin (or a bucket of 54% black marbles from which to draw) at -110 (1.909decimal)...at those odds u'd need only 52.38095% winners to break even (1/1.909)

you've got a long-term +eV proposition...in fact your expected gain over time is exactly 3.1% [54/52.38095]...that's 3.1% on every dollar you bet...substantial return over a season...much better than any bank interest

LTA's long-term winning % on these -110 (ie. 52.38095% break-even) bets seems to much closer to 55% than 54%, explaining why his yield is closer to 5% than 3%.

Only caveat is that there will inevitably be waves of heads/red-marbles that our bankroll must withstand, otherwise you've crashed before the inevitable winning waves kick in...hence the need to size your bets safely and consistently...

man you post some crap in this thread

[una13ombr]

I'll just add that when you've got a weighted 54% coin (or a bucket of 54% black marbles from which to draw) at -110 (1.909decimal)...at those odds u'd need only 52.38095% winners to break even (1/1.909)

you've got a long-term +eV proposition...in fact your expected gain over time is exactly 3.1% [54/52.38095]...that's 3.1% on every dollar you bet...substantial return over a season...much better than any bank interest

LTA's long-term winning % on these -110 (ie. 52.38095% break-even) bets seems to be much closer to 55% than 54%, explaining why his yield is closer to 5% than 3%.

Only caveat is that there will inevitably be waves of heads/red-marbles that our bankroll must withstand, otherwise you've crashed before the inevitable winning waves kick in...hence the need to size your bets safely and consistently...

"All aboard.. now boarding the D-bag train.. I ride LTA's coat tails and act as if me and him are some kind of team"

dude...shut up please your making my dick hurt with your post day in and day out. Jus follow LTA's picks n shut up

all i hear is blah blah blah bullshit bullshit bullshit everytime you post

[apurvaas]

no disrespect to any other members but, guys.. Please GTFO! you are trashing the very nice thread. This is LTA's thread not yours you Fkers... If you have courage, create your own thread and post your useless feedback there and see how many people visit regularly and follow you!

Posting in game excitements, your inputs etc doesn't help anyone.
If you have any input which is RELEVANT to LTA's play, do jump in.. But posts like " 5 mins to go, 25 points needed" etc.. is just trashing the thread! grow up guys
I posted this 2nd time and I don't want to start a clash in here but it is difficult to go thru the pages and find appropriate comments.

No offense to any single poster!

[karajohn13]

no disrespect to any other members but, guys.. Please GTFO! you are trashing the very nice thread. This is LTA's thread not yours you Fkers... If you have courage, create your own thread and post your useless feedback there and see how many people visit regularly and follow you!

Posting in game excitements, your inputs etc doesn't help anyone.
If you have any input which is RELEVANT to LTA's play, do jump in.. But posts like " 5 mins to go, 25 points needed" etc.. is just trashing the thread! grow up guys
I posted this 2nd time and I don't want to start a clash in here but it is difficult to go thru the pages and find appropriate comments.

No offense to any single poster!

Exactly this!

[hawley]

Exactly this!

I find it quite ironic you make a two word post agreeing that people should stop filling this thread with crap, whilst filling it with crap at the same time

[karajohn13]

I find it quite ironic you make a two word post agreeing that people should stop filling this thread with crap, whilst filling it with crap at the same time

Ok, let me explain: this is LTA's thread, a serious man with an extremely professional effort here. To me, and as I can see to many people here, it is really annoying this place to be filled with, not only uselless, but many times offensive-against LTA- comments. So, we have to find a way to avoid this.
And BTW, in his post, fitguy67 tried to make a short analysis, you found it "crap" and you decided to post some "crap" to offend him. Cheers

[hawley]

Ok, let me explain: this is LTA's thread, a serious man with an extremely professional effort here. To me, and as I can see to many people here, it is really annoying this place to be filled with, not only uselless, but many times offensive-against LTA- comments. So, we have to find a way to avoid this.
And BTW, in his post, fitguy67 tried to make a short analysis, you found it "crap" and you decided to post some "crap" to offend him. Cheers

Sorry never fukkn heard of ya guy.

Since you made your original post I have no doubt this thread will clear of all crap posts from here on out

[PerfectGrape]

Back to hoops, anyone like the Boston under? I think Sac will adjust on D and not let another shoot team shoot over 50%. 196 seems too high for a game against Boston.

[dmitean]

Back to hoops, anyone like the Boston under? I think Sac will adjust on D and not let another shoot team shoot over 50%. 196 seems too high for a game against Boston.

Boston has 75% Over percentage on the road in not B2B situation and Evans is probably out, so we will see higher pace from the Kings. Would consider an Over, but surely not an Under, though would gladly read other's opinions...

[Vasco]

First time poster, been following this thread for a while. LTA, love the analysis and all of the work you put in. For every unappreciative degenerate who comes in here to bitch and complain, there are other plenty of other people who respect what you do and are thankful for all the help. Let's ignore the haters and get back to meaningful NBA discussion so we can all make money together.

I'd love to hear some thoughts on the Bucks/Warriors total. I'm not sure what to make of it. Opened at 208 and immediately shot up to 209.5. Made it's way back down to 207.5 for a bit and just popped back up to 208.5. I originally loved the over in this one, with the way Milwaukee has been putting up the points (and giving them up) but I'd like to hear some other opinions on this one. Pacers line back up to +4.5 seems like a gift for those who have been cashing by betting against the Knicks recently. Despite the new coach, seems like a tough spot to back the Knicks. Thoughts?

[Creepingdoom]

First time poster, been following this thread for a while. LTA, love the analysis and all of the work you put in. For every unappreciative degenerate who comes in here to bitch and complain, there are other plenty of other people who respect what you do and are thankful for all the help. Let's ignore the haters and get back to meaningful NBA discussion so we can all make money together.

I'd love to hear some thoughts on the Bucks/Warriors total. I'm not sure what to make of it. Opened at 208 and immediately shot up to 209.5. Made it's way back down to 207.5 for a bit and just popped back up to 208.5. I originally loved the over in this one, with the way Milwaukee has been putting up the points (and giving them up) but I'd like to hear some other opinions on this one. Pacers line back up to +4.5 seems like a gift for those who have been cashing by betting against the Knicks recently. Despite the new coach, seems like a tough spot to back the Knicks. Thoughts?

I heard the Knicks will be going back to a normal offense with the intent of feeding the scorers (Mello and Stoudemire). I think this game can go either way.

[Vasco]

I heard the Knicks will be going back to a normal offense with the intent of feeding the scorers (Mello and Stoudemire). I think this game can go either way.

Valid point, under might be the better play in that spot. Maybe wait and see mode with the new offense.

[Dmil]

Come Out Come Out, Where ever U are !!!

[pacocn]

Lta, lets get a winning streak going, like you
have done so many times after small losing
streaks

[remypom]

No plays? Prob busy making bigger things happen!!!

[dshaffe4]

Y'all done pissed him off

[mikea33]

Or mabye theres just no plays he likes.... lol

[PistolPete13]

Y'all done pissed him off

No disrespect, but i dont think he gives a damn what most people think. He's a pretty intellectual gambler that takes the emotion out of sports investing as he calls it. Dont think he pays too much mind to what anonymous degenerates type on a thread. Prob out to dinner with the family on a friday or takin a breather to clear his head.

Just my guess. He'll be here when its time.
In the meantime i suppose we could all cap our own games.
Good luck to everyone.

[absolutkaos]

anyone else get on the Heat @ -3.5? they are looking good in the first half.

I'm thinking Portland might be a decent play at +9 against Chicago. classic "trap game" situation for Chicago coming off the big wins against the Knicks & Heat, and they could be looking forward to the Sixers game tomorrow. Rose is also a question mark for tonight....i think....has anyone heard otherwise??

[dlunc3]

anyone else get on the Heat @ -3.5? they are looking good in the first half.

I'm thinking Portland might be a decent play at +9 against Chicago. classic "trap game" situation for Chicago coming off the big wins against the Knicks & Heat, and they could be looking forward to the Sixers game tomorrow. Rose is also a question mark for tonight....i think....has anyone heard otherwise??

On both the plays with you... miami my biggest of the night--hopefully they dont let up. They are a tough matchup for philly.. Philly at least a minimal chance against anyone in the east but them this yr imo... just dont matchup at all with them (watch philly comeback and win this now haha).

On port as well... Rose is confirmed out for tonight..

BOL