LTA's NBA Plays

Roto97 · 03-14-12, 09:27 PM

Originally posted by Donkeys2012

The bulls are 7-3 without rose and usually play faster when he is not in.

Well, I do believe Miami is one of the better defensive teams. They are ranked 6th in def rating.

Originally posted by mikea33

You need to cap a little more....Bulls much faster face w/o rose.

Faster pace sometimes might not translate to baskets, if Miami gets stops.

I am a Bulls fan, and I have Heat +4. Looks like the 2nd team is killing the Heat.

SlickRick1382 · 03-14-12, 09:28 PM

The 2nd team is flat out outplaying Miami.

Disgusting to watch. Bosh is playing horrible and soft on the boards.

Love The Action · 03-14-12, 09:31 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 3/14/2012

Play #1

Sixers/Pacers under (185) 1x (Locked)

No time for an in-depth writeup, but we have two jump shooting teams against two very good spot up defenses on the perimeter. Both teams in the bottom third of PACE and possessions per game. I dont expect a shootout, especially with indy on a b2b, 3 in 4 and the starters averaging only 22 minutes last night which should leave some extra defensive energy for this high intensity game which could be a possible playoff matchup. I have this game set at 181 giving us 4 points of value. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Jazz/Suns over (198.5) 1x (Locked)

I have this game set at 202 and I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

jayson311 · 03-14-12, 09:33 PM

Line jumped a full point as I entered it

bmur714 · 03-14-12, 09:35 PM

At 200... Sheesh

fitguy67 · 03-14-12, 09:45 PM

Easiest thing to do is pop on a thread 4minutes or so before tip and very brazenly declare the opposite play...when the games's over if you were "right" (even a stopped watch is right twice a day) you can crow...
if you lose...noone even remembers your knee-jerk contrarian announcement...particularly on a busy thread like this one that fills up three pages over the course of a game

the knuckleheads around sbr can't comprehend that long-term gains in this come from finding "value" consistently over the long-haul...not in "finding winners" to crow about at any odds

if this guy really wants to help out his forum bros (and not just attract knuckleheads with the idea that he's privy to locks) he'll start a thread and man up to an entire season's worth of locks based on such intelligence

WVU9494 · 03-14-12, 10:27 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

I tolt to tail....you can't start tailing someone mid-season and/or pick and choose which plays you bet. If you are going to tail someone -- which I do not recommend -- you need to tail every single play from start to finish. Otherwise, you play losers and miss winners and it just doesn't work out the way you would like.

Regardless, I'm worried about my own bankroll not yours and if you are playing 15 point and 10 point teasers then you have been a long time losing -ev player well before you started following me.
Hope it turns around for you. Good luck.

Since beginning of football season I am up over $8000 just on teasers. Hitting at over 85%. I can tell you are knowledgable but you undervalue teasers.

CheeseHead · 03-14-12, 10:36 PM

I missed the play...anyone think it's worth making a 2nd half bet or do you think the scoring will slow down now? Looks like they are shooting 50% from the field and still are just barely on pace. Just wondering if anyone is watching and if maybe I should get in on a 2nd half over or just let it go that I missed this play. Like LTA said, you should try and follow every play if you're going to tail someone....it's tough though to keep refreshing the forum and I tend to miss plays every now and then.

CheeseHead · 03-14-12, 10:37 PM

Over/under for 2nd half is 101

mikea33 · 03-14-12, 10:37 PM

if the numers are similar or better I would. both teams are lazy and i think this should hit. or atleast i hope....

dymd3z · 03-14-12, 10:42 PM

I like the over myself...

mikea33 · 03-14-12, 10:43 PM

There saying take it then lol

mikea33 · 03-14-12, 10:44 PM

Close game, fast paced teams defense will be at a minimal and late close games always have fouls

CheeseHead · 03-14-12, 10:45 PM

Any of you guys actually watching the game or just box score watching? I haven't seen any of the game so not sure what kind of pace they're going at. Not sure if they can keep up the 50% shooting in the 2nd half though..

dymd3z · 03-14-12, 10:46 PM

not watching. been flipping between Heat and Clipps game....

mikea33 · 03-14-12, 10:47 PM

2 teams have high scoring 2H stats

XGamer · 03-14-12, 11:02 PM

Recently, most games are over now. Today there is only nj/tor goes under, others are all over. I guess this short season is really push every team work hard to get into playoff. Just one little option about rest of season.

pacocn · 03-14-12, 11:05 PM

Originally posted by WVU9494

Since beginning of football season I am up over $8000 just on teasers. Hitting at over 85%. I can tell you are knowledgable but you undervalue teasers.

Open up a teaser thread and chart your plays.

mikea33 · 03-14-12, 11:06 PM

Just day to day variety XGAMER IMO

Love The Action · 03-14-12, 11:10 PM

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 3/15/2012

Play #1

Thunder/Nuggets over (211) 1.5x (Locked)

I may up the stake in this one down the road for a 2x play, but for now I am going to leave it at 1.5x. I suspect this total will move up and down a bit before settling at 212 or more but I could just as easily see this one jump to 212 overnight without ever having the chance to see this number again. Consequently, I am going to jump on this one now at a number with which I am comfortable. We have two of the top 5 offenses in the league in multiple advanced statistical categories including but not limited to PACE, OEFF, EFG%, TS%, FG% at the Rim, FT/FGA, possessions per game, points in the paint, fast break points per game, fast break efficiency, etc. Defensively, Denver has really regressed after what started out as a solid defensive year while OKC remains a decent defensive squad. However, because of the fast pace at which both teams play, we will naturally see higher scoring games when they face each other from the extra FG attempts. Earlier in the year, these teams played to a regulation total of 222 (with OT final total was 242). Even though Durant went for 51 and Westbrook 40, it wasn't like either team shot lights out. They shot good -- both at 48% -- but they really struggled from 3 point land hitting a mere 15 of 48 shots from behind the arc. Moreover, they scored all of those points despite only a 91.5 average pace and only a combined 46 free throw attempts (which includes OT). I expect this game to have a fast pace and provide even more free throw attempts considering both Gallinari and Nene will play in this game which was not the case in the previous game and these teams are #1 and #2 in FT/FGA. I have this game set at 214.5 giving us over 3 points of value. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the over for 1.5x. Good luck.

Donkeys2012 · 03-14-12, 11:19 PM

Whew..got lucky in the Miami game. Went with my gut and didn't unload on Miami ML. Instead took over 189 and got Miami +5.5 in live betting.

Thanks for the over lean LTA that made my decesion to play it for sure.

mikea33 · 03-14-12, 11:19 PM

LTA love u buddy. I think the cold streaks over and starting to get the MOJO back!
wOOHOOooo!
shagggyyyyy baby YAAAAAAA!

XGamer · 03-14-12, 11:21 PM

Originally posted by mikea33

Just day to day variety XGAMER IMO

Yes, I understand. The first half season has too much under games, so I might think the second half will favor to the over a little bit more. No matter what, I will still follow the best capper, LTA.

CheeseHead · 03-14-12, 11:48 PM

Jumped on the 2nd half over and luckily it still came through...I'll take a 1-1 night. Thanks LTA

Love The Action · 03-14-12, 11:53 PM

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season Recap 3/14/2012

1 - 1 = -0.1x

NBA 2011-2012 Season

102 - 86 = +14.85x

Back to the grind....Good luck.

Love The Action · 03-14-12, 11:56 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 3/15/2012

Play #1

Thunder/Nuggets over (211) 1.5x (Locked)

I may up the stake in this one down the road for a 2x play, but for now I am going to leave it at 1.5x. I suspect this total will move up and down a bit before settling at 212 or more but I could just as easily see this one jump to 212 overnight without ever having the chance to see this number again. Consequently, I am going to jump on this one now at a number with which I am comfortable. We have two of the top 5 offenses in the league in multiple advanced statistical categories including but not limited to PACE, OEFF, EFG%, TS%, FG% at the Rim, FT/FGA, possessions per game, points in the paint, fast break points per game, fast break efficiency, etc. Defensively, Denver has really regressed after what started out as a solid defensive year while OKC remains a decent defensive squad. However, because of the fast pace at which both teams play, we will naturally see higher scoring games when they face each other from the extra FG attempts. Earlier in the year, these teams played to a regulation total of 222 (with OT final total was 242). Even though Durant went for 51 and Westbrook 40, it wasn't like either team shot lights out. They shot good -- both at 48% -- but they really struggled from 3 point land hitting a mere 15 of 48 shots from behind the arc. Moreover, they scored all of those points despite only a 91.5 average pace and only a combined 46 free throw attempts (which includes OT). I expect this game to have a fast pace and provide even more free throw attempts considering both Gallinari and Nene will play in this game which was not the case in the previous game and these teams are #1 and #2 in FT/FGA. I have this game set at 214.5 giving us over 3 points of value. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the over for 1.5x. Good luck.

Here's a quote from George Karl about Gallinari and Denver's offense for the game against OKC:

"It's trying to get more actions by playing before the defense gets set, running the court, maybe getting some offensive boards and get confidence from easy opportunities."

That supports our belief in a lightning fast pace tomorrow

pacocn · 03-15-12, 12:00 AM

Lta, nice call on phx/jazz over

keep up the good work

italianbandit · 03-15-12, 12:49 AM

Originally posted by WVU9494

Since beginning of football season I am up over $8000 just on teasers. Hitting at over 85%. I can tell you are knowledgable but you undervalue teasers.

Mr.WVU9494,

With all due respect, your short term gain is not something you should brag about, it truly shows your lack of experience in the field. I would recommend that when entering a thread such as this, you would be better served by asking more questions.
I can tell you that after being on the other side of the counter for many years that books make a large portion of their profits from teasers and "exotic bets". Spend some time researching the math. Its like saying 2+2 =5. If you are not a math person (I am not) then take my brooklyn word for it. There was never anyone that I've seen win long-term at betting teasers.

Warmly,
IB

ronnieseah · 03-15-12, 12:05 PM

This joker is a bookie wetdream.

Originally posted by italianbandit

Mr.WVU9494,

With all due respect, your short term gain is not something you should brag about, it truly shows your lack of experience in the field. I would recommend that when entering a thread such as this, you would be better served by asking more questions.
I can tell you that after being on the other side of the counter for many years that books make a large portion of their profits from teasers and "exotic bets". Spend some time researching the math. Its like saying 2+2 =5. If you are not a math person (I am not) then take my brooklyn word for it. There was never anyone that I've seen win long-term at betting teasers.

Warmly,
IB

dmitean · 03-15-12, 01:48 PM

Thebo is back for the Thunder today and he is a big factor on defense. With that news, I wouldn't touch the Over.
But, I will watch the game and will be rooting for you (and Thunder)!

Love The Action · 03-15-12, 02:00 PM

Originally posted by dmitean

Thebo is back for the Thunder today and he is a big factor on defense. With that news, I wouldn't touch the Over.
But, I will watch the game and will be rooting for you (and Thunder)!

First game back....he will play 20 minutes or less. According to Brooks, they will "slowly integrate him into the rotation." With denver playing at the fastest pace in the league, I dont expect him to play too much and harden's minutes will not be affected at all. I dont think this hurts the over nearly as much as you intimate, although I would obviously prefer that he was sitting like they said he would last night.

JM92 · 03-15-12, 02:26 PM

Even if he plays, Thabo loves to go out on the break with the rest of the bunch. He runs way more than Daequan Cook, I can assure you that.

Now that we got Thabo back and with the Mavs playing like they're playing, I would say we have the best in the West

Brooklyn Dick · 03-15-12, 02:42 PM

Nene Hilario C Denver has been traded to Wash.

Love The Action · 03-15-12, 03:24 PM

Originally posted by Brooklyn Dick

Nene Hilario C Denver has been traded to Wash.

Yep, that will hurt our points inthe paint production from denver, but will also force them to go small with no koustas which should lead to an ultra fast pace and easier scores for okc in the paint.

bmur714 · 03-15-12, 04:06 PM

My local just moved to 214

No one expected Nene to get traded but your right it will affect our points down low but will also help OKC get some easy points in the paint.. Glad I got it at 211 and let's get this one tonight guys.

Either way trade or no trade LTA was spot on with this line movement