LTA's NBA Plays

**remypom** · 03-15-12, 09:58 PM

70 pt quarter?

**fitguy67** · 03-15-12, 10:02 PM

the solution to trying to announce game results constantly...Vagisil

**Donkeys2012** · 03-15-12, 10:03 PM

Originally posted by remypom

70 pt quarter?

Denver 3rd Q killed us. We needed them to keep it close.

**fitguy67** · 03-15-12, 10:07 PM

an "over" isn't likely in this situation...but far far stranger things have happened...wait for the goddam game to finish...debbie-downer/chicken-little updates do no good whatever...get a hobby and put a smaller % on the play if it helps you keep your pants on

**Donkeys2012** · 03-15-12, 10:10 PM

Originally posted by fitguy67

an "over" isn't likely in this situation...but far far stranger things have happened...wait for the goddam game to finish...debbie-downer/chicken-little updates do no good whatever...get a hobby and put a smaller % on the play if it helps you keep your pants on

Your hobby must be living in lala land and posting stupid azz comments.

**Crofta** · 03-15-12, 10:14 PM

Worst part of this is not only do we do our $$$ today, but looking at Denvers offensive output, next game we will jump into the under and they will rack up 120 pts and burn us again.

**jimmy007oc** · 03-15-12, 10:18 PM

Losing Nene is huge. They can't get inside thebasket

**Roto97** · 03-15-12, 10:24 PM

Originally posted by jimmy007oc

Losing Nene is huge. They can't get inside thebasket

yea, looks like it. Highest rebound on team is 8 by Lawson and Harrington.

**mikea33** · 03-15-12, 11:13 PM

LTA are you at all concerned with the recent slide, Or just some bad beats? I dont mean that in an insult to your capping but it seems NBA has changed completly and I pray your system is still +ev even with all the bullcrap lately NBA games. It seems hard to cap with new trends in the shortned year, etc.

**Aussiepunter1** · 03-15-12, 11:20 PM

Can't win all the time I guess.. LTA what do you think about NY vs Pacers tomorrow? I'm leaning towards unders @ -199.5

**ronnieseah** · 03-15-12, 11:23 PM

fitguy67,

before you criticize other about their posting, look through this thread and see your own postings first.
what i see are posts shining up to lta ass, or announcing whether you got on a play or not.
all these arent helpful also.

Originally posted by fitguy67

I'm on the LTA express flight #U199, due to arrive in Chicago about 22:30.

Shhh... here's the captain over the p.a. system....

"blablabla..............Once the flight is underway, we ask everyone to please behave in a mature fashion until landing...if tempted to have a premature ejaculation about the "certain" result of the flight (either "crowing" or "crying")...the captain directs your attention to the tube of Vagisil at the back of the seat in front of you....blablabla".

Originally posted by fitguy67

i'm pissed about losing the close one NOW, after it's really DONE...and starting to hate how every game is 46 minutes of basketball that takes about 90 minutes...followed by 2 minutes of contrived pussy-fouling/free-throw carnival-gaming that takes damn near 45 minutes (the coaches are to blame...it's not worth the effort if you're down more than 2 possessions per minute remaining...and it really screws up the entertainment value for the fans...turning end of the game into a goddam agonizing ordeal...and that's for those without a bet on it)

Originally posted by fitguy67

the last time i read something you recommended (pinny's page on "beating the closer") it woke me up to the importance of really line-shopping for bets...rather than just "putting bets on"

i've just bookmarked and skimmed these and will dive in soon

thanks for trying to teach us some valuable fishing skills along the way...in addition to the 12-15 fish you throw at us each week...all for an amazingly affordable price...

Originally posted by fitguy67

LTA isn't Heisenberg (known for "the uncertainty principle")...more like The Amazing Kreskin (knower of all things) when deciding to lock (& thankfully post) plays the night before...

after LTA hops on the boat starts sailing away...and usually in the predicted direction...meaning we can expect a ton of "is it ok to take it at _____?" questions all day today

i missed the two boats...and unless they come back round to pick up more passengers at/near the quoted prices...i'll just have to miss one or both of them...i consider it an opportunity to cultivate discipline (and to lock in a new "chek thread for night-before picks before powering down" habit)

Originally posted by fitguy67

plenty of time guyz n gals...games ebb n flow, often dramatically...if your nerves are on such a hairtrigger i suggest you bet a smaller % of your bank on each play(in stock and currency trading...it's called sizing your bets to your "sleeping point")

Originally posted by fitguy67

the solution to trying to announce game results constantly...Vagisil

Originally posted by fitguy67

an "over" isn't likely in this situation...but far far stranger things have happened...wait for the goddam game to finish...debbie-downer/chicken-little updates do no good whatever...get a hobby and put a smaller % on the play if it helps you keep your pants on

**fitguy67** · 03-15-12, 11:57 PM

hmmmm...i'm honored...(i damn near nominated it

)

...maybe you should work on compiling your own "contributions" into a similar "collected works" format...

seriously tho', i do stand behind the basic common sense of my posts, which is...let the games play out before prematurely bitchnmoaning/celebrating about the "certainty" of the result...no mean-spirited intentions at all...

in the end, we're all here for the same thing...LTA's advice on how to grow our escarole patch

**H1Cypher** · 03-16-12, 01:01 AM

Originally posted by mikea33

LTA are you at all concerned with the recent slide, Or just some bad beats? I dont mean that in an insult to your capping but it seems NBA has changed completly and I pray your system is still +ev even with all the bullcrap lately NBA games. It seems hard to cap with new trends in the shortned year, etc.

Are you kidding me? What he is going through isn't a slide it is variance. His 'system' of capping as you call it I doubt is in trouble because of a couple of losses.

**Chili_Powder** · 03-16-12, 02:02 AM

Even good cappers go through tough streaks, the important thing is to work on your own thought process constantly to develop your own skills. It's not difficult to read a well written write-up by a a capper with a winning record and to think that you've doubled your ability. The wisdom dispensed about bankroll management and discipline ect, ect is great, but anyone with any experience has heard the exact same thing a thousand times. This guy may or may not be around posting his plays next season, so spend your time developing your owns skills rather than adding inconsequential posts (an example of an inconsequential post would be this one, as well as 80 % of the others).

**shimeon40** · 03-16-12, 02:26 AM

LTA is badly out of form..gutsy guy for post his picks..but just not getting them at all right lately.

**dmitean** · 03-16-12, 04:33 AM

Originally posted by shimeon40

LTA is badly out of form..gutsy guy for post his picks..but just not getting them at all right lately.

You can't say that. Even looking at best NBA teams (Miami, Chicago and so on) - sometimes have losing streaks and of course even the best cappers go through that as well.
The most important thing is to continue to believe in yourself and change nothing.

**blumpkin** · 03-16-12, 05:35 AM

A slide? whats the sample size a couple of days? Some of you guys are brutal. The nba is a long grind and you cant win every game. LTA is the man and will continue to produce in the long run.

**Love The Action** · 03-16-12, 06:18 AM

Originally posted by mikea33

LTA are you at all concerned with the recent slide, Or just some bad beats? I dont mean that in an insult to your capping but it seems NBA has changed completly and I pray your system is still +ev even with all the bullcrap lately NBA games. It seems hard to cap with new trends in the shortned year, etc.

Are you even serious with this question

Wow.....do you really think im worried because of 4 bad days? Welcome to the harsh reality of sports investing. Guess what? Cold streaks happen to everybody. It has nothing to do with a "system" because im not a system guy. Its called "variance" and we have just been on the losing side of some very close games where we just miss cashing by a few points. You might want to google "variance." As far as +ev plays, you can't get any more +ev than last nights plays as we beat the closer by three points and it closed on the exact number my model predicted (ie 214). I cant control denvers ice cold shooting in the 2h alk we can control as the investor is making +ev plays and +ev has nothing to do with the result of the game, its all about staying ahead of the market and I continue to do that on a daily basis. The wins will eventually come around sooner or later.

I suggest you read some books about sports investing because you really come off as an inexperienced investor. Ive been spoiling everyone that followed over the last month as we never had more than a 1.1x losing night. Well variance caught up to me. Obviously, that was not going to last forever and I have been expecting a cold streak. Here it is...you just have to ride it, keep making solid plays and soon variance will turn back in yourr favor. So, to answer your question, no I am not worried in the least. This is nothing more than the natural peaks and valleys of a long season. GL.

**Love The Action** · 03-16-12, 06:32 AM

Originally posted by shimeon40

LTA is badly out of form..gutsy guy for post his picks..but just not getting them at all right lately.

Yeah whatever buddy....4 tough days.....if I were making bad plays that were losing to the market and getting beat by the closer, that would be one thing. However, other than the heat and mavs play where I paid -120, every play that has lost over the last 4 days was a +ev play that either beat the closer or was otherwise equal thereto as the best number available. So I am not at all "out of form", just simply going through a bad run of variance.

You are another guy that apparently has never heard the term "variance." You should look it up...everyone goes on cold streaks. Its inevitable as the sun coming up, you just need to know how to handle it properly. This does not concern me in the slightest.

**Love The Action** · 03-16-12, 06:34 AM

Originally posted by dmitean

You can't say that. Even looking at best NBA teams (Miami, Chicago and so on) - sometimes have losing streaks and of course even the best cappers go through that as well.
The most important thing is to continue to believe in yourself and change nothing.

Exactly.

**Love The Action** · 03-16-12, 06:34 AM

Originally posted by H1Cypher

Are you kidding me? What he is going through isn't a slide it is variance. His 'system' of capping as you call it I doubt is in trouble because of a couple of losses.

Originally posted by blumpkin

A slide? whats the sample size a couple of days? Some of you guys are brutal. The nba is a long grind and you cant win every game. LTA is the man and will continue to produce in the long run.

Two more guys who "get it."

**shimeon40** · 03-16-12, 06:48 AM

LTA...I didn't mean to hurt your ego..as you have a large band of followers..every gambler has "variance"..it's called picking a loser..what a load of poppy rooster..variance...it's a 50/50 call..these aren't horse races..you will not admit you are in bad form..which tells me your delusional ..now pick a winner or you are no better than other coat tuggers,urgers and clowns tipping here..your the master..start delivering some magic

and load it LTA..i'm calling u out on your next tip

**Love The Action** · 03-16-12, 06:59 AM

Originally posted by Chili_Powder

Even good cappers go through tough streaks, the important thing is to work on your own thought process constantly to develop your own skills. It's not difficult to read a well written write-up by a a capper with a winning record and to think that you've doubled your ability. The wisdom dispensed about bankroll management and discipline ect, ect is great, but anyone with any experience has heard the exact same thing a thousand times. This guy may or may not be around posting his plays next season, so spend your time developing your owns skills rather than adding inconsequential posts (an example of an inconsequential post would be this one, as well as 80 % of the others).

This is a great post and is essentially what I have said since day 1 of coming on SBR over a year ago. Since coming on SBR I have done nothing but provide you guys profit....over +90x in profit from last year in the NBA playoffs (about +40x under my current unit scale), another +40x of profit from MLB, +6x in NCAAF, +1x in NFL and over +12x in profit this NBA season currently. Despite providing SBR nothing but profit in the last year, you go through a bad 4 days and have to talk guys off the ledge. That just proves to me that people have been lazily tailing my plays instead of learning from my writeups and commentary as I have suggested.

Since coming on SBR, I have told everyone to learn from me just like I try to learn from others. If you've made money from my plays, then that's great. However, I provided you with over a year's worth of advice and knowledge on sports investing. That is the value of my threads, not the winning plays. It's about learning and constantly getting better at your craft. I will not be on SBR forever. I have a family, a career and a million other things going on my life. As soon as my son gets to be 1 and 2 years old, I will be spending more and more time with him and less and less time with the degenerates on SBR. I recommend that people learn from me now rather than just be lazy and tail plays.

It's very difficult, if not impossible, to be a successful long term "tailer." YOU NEED TO LEARN TO MAKE YOU OWN PLAYS if you are going to do this long term as a successful investment. I suggest you guys heed Chili's advice and start developing your own capping proccess. Use my thread and other solid threads on here as a learning tool. If you are just blindly tailing, you are missing the true value of my threads.

**Love The Action** · 03-16-12, 07:09 AM

Originally posted by shimeon40

LTA...I didn't mean to hurt your ego..as you have a large band of followers..every gambler has "variance"..it's called picking a loser..what a load of poppy rooster..variance...it's a 50/50 call..these aren't horse races..you will not admit you are in bad form..which tells me your delusional ..now pick a winner or you are no better than other coat tuggers,urgers and clowns tipping here..your the master..start delivering some magic

and load it LTA..i'm calling u out on your next tip

Don't worry buddy, nothing you can ever write will hurt my ego because I am humble. I know what to expect in this game. While I am confident, I never get cocky and always stay humble because I understand just how difficult it is to be successful in the long term. You can say what you want, but if you think a bad 4 days is "bad form" then that's just a matter of semantics. As long as I continue to make +EV plays, I know that I will win in the long term. So I would say your post is a load of "poppy rooster" and I suggest you read some books from Stanford Wong or any of the other great writers in this business. You should learn about the business before you spout nonsense like that because it's clear from your post that you don't understand that it's possible to have a good play that loses. I judge myself on wins and losses, but also on +EV plays. As long as I stay ahead of the market, beat the closer and make +EV plays, the wins will come back and I will peak. Again, grinding out profit is about peaks and valleys. You have to ride out the valleys and play aggressive during the peaks.

Thanks for the comments though...funny I've never seen you comment until this little 4 day rough patch. I wonder why....

**shimeon40** · 03-16-12, 07:11 AM

u called me and raised me LTA..i'm blindly following ..since about your last 6 picks.

**shimeon40** · 03-16-12, 07:14 AM

I'm starting to think vegas is tailing you last 4 days LTA..check for bugs and phone taps

**Love The Action** · 03-16-12, 07:18 AM

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season Recap 3/15/2012

0 - 1 = -1.65x

NBA 2011-2012 Season

102 - 87 = +13.25x

This is the true essence of grinding out profit over a long season. There will be bumps and we are experiencing them now. As I have stated since day 1, we will experience peaks and valleys. We peaked for the last month and did not have more than a -1.1x loss on any one night. Well, now we are suffering through some variance. This will weed out the true "investors" from the fools with no money management, no discipline and no experience. I will come through this rough patch of variance with my profit still safe and a hot streak on my side. Other people who make bail out plays, double up and play with no discipline, will lose their BR during a cold spell like this. Which one are you? Let's get back on the winning side tonight. Good luck.

**shimeon40** · 03-16-12, 07:20 AM

The gutsiest..best tip i've seen on here was by Henry Hill..Colorado colledge hoops..$3.20 ML..has a friend call chucky..awesome tip..up by 20 in 2nd quarter..ended up winning by 5.

**underal** · 03-16-12, 07:22 AM

been following ( not tailing) lta for a while now and felt the need to chime in here. imagine a loaded coin where the probability of heads is 54%. if you toss this coin say 500 times it will come up heads very close to 54% of the tosses with a very high probability. however you could be sure that if you look at the results you will find some streaks of tails, maybe even 5 or 6 in a row at some points.
keep it up lta- our 54% coin (at least)

**shimeon40** · 03-16-12, 07:25 AM

Your using some formula LTA..i think Henrys friend Chucky had some inside info..now thats the gambler i need to follow..but BOL LTA anyway.

**shimeon40** · 03-16-12, 07:28 AM

Dads very good to..i think he just has a gut feel about games..doesn't pull the trigger every day..dads a smart silver fox

**Love The Action** · 03-16-12, 07:30 AM

Originally posted by shimeon40

Your using some formula LTA..i think Henrys friend Chucky had some inside info..now thats the gambler i need to follow..but BOL LTA anyway.

OK buddy. You go follow Henry Hill long term and see where that gets you.

Based on that comment, I see that you have no idea what you are talking about. You should do a search about Henry Hill before you put all your BR on one of his plays. Don't say I didn't warn you.

Good luck with your future endeavors.

**Love The Action** · 03-16-12, 07:33 AM

Originally posted by underal

been following ( not tailing) lta for a while now and felt the need to chime in here. imagine a loaded coin where the probability of heads is 54%. if you toss this coin say 500 times it will come up heads very close to 54% of the tosses with a very high probability. however you could be sure that if you look at the results you will find some streaks of tails, maybe even 5 or 6 in a row at some points.
keep it up lta- our 54% coin (at least)

Logical post....good luck buddy.

**Love The Action** · 03-16-12, 07:41 AM

I'm off for work....good luck today gentlemen. And leave the negative comments alone. The cure for all that is winning and the best part of a losing streak is the winning streak that follows. Let's start that winning streak today. Good luck.

**shimeon40** · 03-16-12, 07:41 AM

Thats the key LTA..Henrys the first to admit he's a bum unless he consults with his friend Chucky..when henrys on a bad run he consults chucky ..i think chucky pitys the fool and cuts him on some vegas fix action to ensure henry has rent and food money.