LTA's NBA Plays

[Catchn_Picks]

[QUOTE=Love The Action;14157675]I might.

Just waiting to see if I can get -6.5 again....this was a post from earlier:


If I had to guess, you're gonna get your wish LTA...5D, Pinny and Matchbook all heavily juicing up Botston +7...a sign that -6.5 is about to break, imo.

[lucky cat]

Nope...but everyone's Irish on St. Patty's day

Good luck,LTA. I'm Chinese but today I'm Irish like you,LTA.

[Speedy88]

To be honest LTA, I think the line is more likely to go to -7.5 than -6.5. Books know Celts don't stand much of a chance.

[wguan2]

mcgee is not playing tonight.

[mikea33]

Be careful with Celts game guys.

[Love The Action]

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 3/17/2012

Play #1

Pacers (-4) 1x (Locked)

No time for a writeup now as the lines are moving, but will try to give you my thoughts later. Most of the market is at -4.5 but Legends is hanging -4 so I am jumping on it now. After last night's embarrassment, I expect the Pacers to play inspired basketball and Barbosa should add some more scoring off the bench which was not available last night. The Pacers have already sold out for this game and I expect a great atmosphere from the Indy fans. I have this game set at -5 and I am rolling with the Pacers for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Spurs/Mavericks under (197.5) 1x (Locked)

The Spurs are coming off two huge scoring, great shooting performances, but playing against a struggling Dallas team that must win with defense. With the Spurs on a b2b and their core playing heavy minutes against OKC last night, I expect a slower PACE and lock-down defense by the Mavs. I have this game set at 193 and was looking to get 197. As soon as I saw 197.5, I had to jump on it. I will try to get a full writeup posted later. I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Bobcats (+2) 1x (Locked)

This is a great situational play with value. Toronto is coming off an emotional OT win over Memphis where their starters all saw over 40 minutes. Even though Toronto has revenge, I don't see them motivated for this one. On the other side, Charlotte is always desperate for a win and will be playing at home after resting in their own beds for a night. While Toronto has an advantage statistically on both offense and defense, the disparity is not that far and Charlotte should not be getting 2 points. I have this game set at PK giving us a full FG of value. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the Bobcats for 1x.

Play #4

76'ers (+5) 1x (Locked)

These teams are statistically too close for the Sixers to be getting 5-6 points when Rose will not play. If Rose does play, I may buy out but KC Johnson the Bulls beat writer who historically pretty accurate in these types of things says Rose is most likely out. Both teams are on b2b, although Philly had to travel. Nevertheless, the Bulls cannot continue to cover big spreads against upper echelon teams without Rose. I have this game set more around +3 with Rose out, so I am rolling with the Sixers for 1x. Good luck.

Play #5

Jazz (-8) 1x (Locked)

I'm a bit late to the party with this one as I should have paid the -120 for -7 earlier this morning, but I had not fully capped the game yet and I don't make any play without going through my full process. However, I don't think the spread should matter in this game. Utah has significant advantages in the paint and should end up running away with this game. This is especially true when you consider the situational advantage of Utah as GS is playing on a 3 in 4/b2b in the thin air. When you consider the depth of Utah, Utah's statistical advantage in multiple advanced offensive and defensive categories, the Warrior's thin bench, Utah's revenge angle and the effect of fatigue on the Warriors, I think this is a must-play and I am rolling with the Jazz for 1x. Good luck.

Play #6

76'ers/Bulls under (185.5) 1x (Locked)

I got burned getting greedy with this one waiting for the key total number of 187. However, it never materialized and the steam hit dropping it from 186.5. Regardless, I still love the under in this spot in this matchup. After last night's disaster against Portland, both Thibs and Noah were furious about the Bulls defensive effort. I suspect that the Bulls bounce-back with a strong defensive effort. Generally, I would also look to back the Bulls in a spot like this. However, with Rose out, this sets up perfectly for a game under/Philly cover. In the previous two matchups, my model showed value in a total at the 181 range. We split those first two games as they were on pace to hit the under a few weeks ago, but a 59 point fourth quarter blew our under by 5 points. I don't see that happening this time, plus we are getting an extra 4 points of value. I have this game set at 179.5 giving us over 5 full points of value. The refs are generally favorable to the under, these are two of the best defensive teams according to the advanced stats and both rank in the bottom 10 in PACE. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #7

Knicks/Pacers under (200) 1x (Locked)

This was the number I was waiting for, so I am going to jump on it now because I don't think it gets to 201 and I expect sharp money to drive it back down to the 198 range. I expect a Pacers win predicated on defense so just like in the Sixers/Bulls game, I think we have correlated plays here. Despite the recent defensive slump, the Knicks remain top ten in DEFF. When you look at the Pacers superior defensive ranking, I think they look to keep the pace slow and win a defensive battle. Now that Woodson has taken the helm, we can expect more emphasis on defense and isolation sets. Just like the Spurs, the Knicks have shot at or near 50% from the field and from behind the arc in their last two games. Because they are going against a motivated and statistically superior Pacers defense, I expect those numbers to regress down to their season averages. It's just too hard in the NBA with fatigue and defensive adjustments, to continue to shoot at such an abnormally high rate more than a couple games in a row. These teams are a combined 10-16 O/U on no rest such as tonight and both average around 190 points in such spots. In addition, as someone dmitean alluded to earlier, in the NBA you need to consider the "zig-zag" effect in these home/away b2b matchups. Generally, you will see teams play the opposite in such b2b spots. This is especially true in the playoffs and I recommend everyone familiarize themselves by reading up on the "zig-zag" NBA trend. In addition to these factors, the refs are also highly favorable to the under and my model shows value in this game (which is why I leaned to the under yesterday). The refs are Blair, Kirkland and Phillips, all of whom are having huge "under" seasons so far. I generally look to the refs lifetiem o/u records and average foul stats, but in this case we have all 3 refs having disparate under seasons and there's no reason not to ride that trend. In addition, my model has this matchup set at 196.5 which provides us with almost 4 points of value at 200. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #8

Nuggets (-7) 1x (Locked)

I would have felt much better at -6, but based on the recent move at Pinny where they started juicing the Nuggz I felt I had to lock this one now. There's really no value at -7, but this is a situational must-play. The Celtics have horrible ATS record on b2b, especially when that game is on the road. The Nuggets will run the Celtics ragged in the thin air and I expect Denver to win this one by double digits. I am rolling with the Nuggets for 1x. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 3/17/2012

Play #1

Pacers (-4) 1x (Locked)

No time for a writeup now as the lines are moving, but will try to give you my thoughts later. Most of the market is at -4.5 but Legends is hanging -4 so I am jumping on it now. After last night's embarrassment, I expect the Pacers to play inspired basketball and Barbosa should add some more scoring off the bench which was not available last night. The Pacers have already sold out for this game and I expect a great atmosphere from the Indy fans. I have this game set at -5 and I am rolling with the Pacers for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Spurs/Mavericks under (197.5) 1x (Locked)

The Spurs are coming off two huge scoring, great shooting performances, but playing against a struggling Dallas team that must win with defense. With the Spurs on a b2b and their core playing heavy minutes against OKC last night, I expect a slower PACE and lock-down defense by the Mavs. I have this game set at 193 and was looking to get 197. As soon as I saw 197.5, I had to jump on it. I will try to get a full writeup posted later. I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Bobcats (+2) 1x (Locked)

This is a great situational play with value. Toronto is coming off an emotional OT win over Memphis where their starters all saw over 40 minutes. Even though Toronto has revenge, I don't see them motivated for this one. On the other side, Charlotte is always desperate for a win and will be playing at home after resting in their own beds for a night. While Toronto has an advantage statistically on both offense and defense, the disparity is not that far and Charlotte should not be getting 2 points. I have this game set at PK giving us a full FG of value. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the Bobcats for 1x.

Play #4

76'ers (+5) 1x (Locked)

These teams are statistically too close for the Sixers to be getting 5-6 points when Rose will not play. If Rose does play, I may buy out but KC Johnson the Bulls beat writer who historically pretty accurate in these types of things says Rose is most likely out. Both teams are on b2b, although Philly had to travel. Nevertheless, the Bulls cannot continue to cover big spreads against upper echelon teams without Rose. I have this game set more around +3 with Rose out, so I am rolling with the Sixers for 1x. Good luck.

Play #5

Jazz (-8) 1x (Locked)

I'm a bit late to the party with this one as I should have paid the -120 for -7 earlier this morning, but I had not fully capped the game yet and I don't make any play without going through my full process. However, I don't think the spread should matter in this game. Utah has significant advantages in the paint and should end up running away with this game. This is especially true when you consider the situational advantage of Utah as GS is playing on a 3 in 4/b2b in the thin air. When you consider the depth of Utah, Utah's statistical advantage in multiple advanced offensive and defensive categories, the Warrior's thin bench, Utah's revenge angle and the effect of fatigue on the Warriors, I think this is a must-play and I am rolling with the Jazz for 1x. Good luck.

Play #6

76'ers/Bulls under (185.5) 1x (Locked)

I got burned getting greedy with this one waiting for the key total number of 187. However, it never materialized and the steam hit dropping it from 186.5. Regardless, I still love the under in this spot in this matchup. After last night's disaster against Portland, both Thibs and Noah were furious about the Bulls defensive effort. I suspect that the Bulls bounce-back with a strong defensive effort. Generally, I would also look to back the Bulls in a spot like this. However, with Rose out, this sets up perfectly for a game under/Philly cover. In the previous two matchups, my model showed value in a total at the 181 range. We split those first two games as they were on pace to hit the under a few weeks ago, but a 59 point fourth quarter blew our under by 5 points. I don't see that happening this time, plus we are getting an extra 4 points of value. I have this game set at 179.5 giving us over 5 full points of value. The refs are generally favorable to the under, these are two of the best defensive teams according to the advanced stats and both rank in the bottom 10 in PACE. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #7

Knicks/Pacers under (200) 1x (Locked)

This was the number I was waiting for, so I am going to jump on it now because I don't think it gets to 201 and I expect sharp money to drive it back down to the 198 range. I expect a Pacers win predicated on defense so just like in the Sixers/Bulls game, I think we have correlated plays here. Despite the recent defensive slump, the Knicks remain top ten in DEFF. When you look at the Pacers superior defensive ranking, I think they look to keep the pace slow and win a defensive battle. Now that Woodson has taken the helm, we can expect more emphasis on defense and isolation sets. Just like the Spurs, the Knicks have shot at or near 50% from the field and from behind the arc in their last two games. Because they are going against a motivated and statistically superior Pacers defense, I expect those numbers to regress down to their season averages. It's just too hard in the NBA with fatigue and defensive adjustments, to continue to shoot at such an abnormally high rate more than a couple games in a row. These teams are a combined 10-16 O/U on no rest such as tonight and both average around 190 points in such spots. In addition, as someone dmitean alluded to earlier, in the NBA you need to consider the "zig-zag" effect in these home/away b2b matchups. Generally, you will see teams play the opposite in such b2b spots. This is especially true in the playoffs and I recommend everyone familiarize themselves by reading up on the "zig-zag" NBA trend. In addition to these factors, the refs are also highly favorable to the under and my model shows value in this game (which is why I leaned to the under yesterday). The refs are Blair, Kirkland and Phillips, all of whom are having huge "under" seasons so far. I generally look to the refs lifetiem o/u records and average foul stats, but in this case we have all 3 refs having disparate under seasons and there's no reason not to ride that trend. In addition, my model has this matchup set at 196.5 which provides us with almost 4 points of value at 200. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #8

Nuggets (-7) 1x (Locked)

I would have felt much better at -6, but based on the recent move at Pinny where they started juicing the Nuggz I felt I had to lock this one now. There's really no value at -7, but this is a situational must-play. The Celtics have horrible ATS record on b2b, especially when that game is on the road. The Nuggets will run the Celtics ragged in the thin air and I expect Denver to win this one by double digits. I am rolling with the Nuggets for 1x. Good luck.

Card is final at the above 8 plays. I am heading out with the wife to a party. I may add to the stake of a few plays, but still undecided about that. For now, I will keep them all 1x. Good luck with the biggest card of the year so far.

[Catchn_Picks]

Thanks LTA for all the lab work. Have a nice dinner...we'll just be home holding down the farm while you are away, sweating out the most plays of the BB year.

Geez...remind me not to ask for more plays from you in the future.

BOL

[meader99]

Card is final at the above 8 plays. I am heading out with the wife to a party. I may add to the stake of a few plays, but still undecided about that. For now, I will keep them all 1x. Good luck with the biggest card of the year so far.

Have a fine dinner sir, and be sure to wash it all down with a couple of adult beverages of your choice.

[mikea33]

Best of luck tonight LTA and the gang! I hate that your on the Nuggets as I just cant get myself to play em

[remypom]

Hope u and ur wife have a blast while we will route for our picks at home

[bmur714]

Just got a notification... Rose is out tonight

[mikea33]

holy shiat indy comes out firin!!

[eastern2]

Wow indy/nyk can't miss

[Fang]

I need them to slow down the pace.

[hangtime]

[lato89]

i see complete fail tonight

[CLITcommander44]

Frikken great start to the night

[Fang]

Still to early to tell.

[eastern2]

Still to early to tell.

[eastern2]

On pace for 64 free throws

[CLITcommander44]

Man these bobcats cant hit a shot

[CLITcommander44]

0-2 already

[r1kkie]

Can people please stop with these posts, they do not contribute to this thread...

[TC Woods]

After the last time I bet on the Bobcats, I told myself I would NEVER do that again....

I did it again today....

[mikea33]

this might not end well

[ultrasouth]

Never knew matches finished after the 1st quarter

[Speedy88]

As horrible as the Bobcats are, lets not forget who they are playing. Craptors can still blow this game, still half a game left to be played.

[Overbettor]

These games are far from being decided boys not to mention we have four games remaining. Relax

[balu000]

Bobcats back on track, philly game looks ok so far (couldn't have wished for a better q1), but knicks is really killing us tonight. Hoping for a cooler in the shooting%.

Anyways, no need to worry.

[SlickRick1382]

People overreact way too early

Bobcats went into the half down 10 and are now up 9.

Knicks / Pacers went into the half at a pace of 4.63 points per minute (5.67 - 1Q) but if you notice it has slowed down considerably - 3.58 2Q and 3.33 thus far halfway through the 3rd at the 6:03 mark

we can still stay under 200

Some of you people need to not watch the games and just come back after the game is over because you can't handle it during the game.

Then we have the other games doing well with the 76ers killing the Bulls and having a great slow pace. so even if we miss both the Knicks / Pacers Total and Pacers -4 we still have 6 other games and three of them are looking real good right now.

[Catchn_Picks]

Stunning third quarter for Charlotte.

[SlickRick1382]

After the last time I bet on the Bobcats, I told myself I would NEVER do that again....

I did it again today....

I guess it's better to be lucky than good huh?

[TC Woods]

I guess it's better to be lucky than good huh?

That's a fact.... I go out for an hour, a miracle occurs... so far

[SlickRick1382]

You need to go out more often and not watch the games. Just come in for the results