LTA's NBA Plays

[wguan2]

Did you see the game? The Thunder shot around their average from the foul line in the game. Sixers actually a little better than average. Not even the refs helped and this shouldn't have been a close game. As proven, the Sixers are a terrible match up for the Thunder. Anyway, BOl for the next one everybody, let's get these!

I watched the first half, missed the third, but watched the 4th. I'm not making any statements about the game as a whole. I'm just saying, at the end of the game, with the way philly was missing shots, thunder should've covered the game by 5-6 on free throws alone. aside from the shots missed/made outside of the 1 minute mark, i'm just talking about crunch time with harden missing both, kd missing 1 of 2, and then kd missing 1 of 2 again. the last one being the thing that helped thunder cover as we all know.

I'm just trying to help put this in perspective. In my opinion, this loss was by no means a bad beat. A backdoor cover last second 3 pointer would be a bad beat, but I don't think this one was to be honest.

BOL JM and everyone else on tonight.

[dlunc3]

realy, you think a team should cover 4 when down 84-77 with a few minutes left needing to go on a 15-3 run to end the game?? if you expect that on your bets, I need to start tailing you

[SilverTongueFox]

Thunder went to the line 34 times (76ers only 12 times) on Philly's home floor. Clearly didn't get any help from the refs. Plus 76ers wete out rebounded 56 to 39. That's the difference in a win/loss.

[Catchn_Picks]

realy, you think a team should cover 4 when down 84-77 with a few minutes left needing to go on a 15-3 run to end the game?? if you expect that on your bets, I need to start tailing you

[fitguy67]

Mikeaa,

BTW, what i wrote applies most intensely to intra-game betting under stress (when you're trying bail out of a bad situation your in due to what happened to your bets in place)...but capping for 2nd halves as a separate investment opportunity is an artform in itself and there are a few that have developed it to LTA-like quality...Eaglesphan, for example has a brilliant record at these sorts of bets, so I wouldn't lump that into my "books taking advantage of degenerate action-junkies" reasoning. Difference is the level of evaluation characteristically applied before the bet applied.

In your case you've got the opposite sort of "stress" (not generated by fear by your game position going bad...but a bit of what you call "greed" setting in when your position seems locked)...hmmmm...

as long as you're putting the 2nd half wager on with your "head" and NOT your stomach...AND...here's the catch...if you're willing to turn down something less than what you'd decided to look for when you hit the line window...then it doesn't have to be -eV for you...keep good records and let us know how this pans out for you over the haul

[alamo]

The 76rs missed 10 of their 11 final shots and scored 3 pts inside the final 5mins. The Thunder uncharacteristcally missed 5 of their final 10 free throws which kept leaving the sixers in it. We nearly got there but in the end I put this one on the sixers meltdown.

[NicAtNight]

Kobe?? Any word?

First thought is to hit the under. Any thoughts I missed on here? Tough loss on 6ers. Glad I missed that one. Would be livid hah

[Soulrefreshing]

Kobe cLeared per espn during bulls game

[wguan2]

realy, you think a team should cover 4 when down 84-77 with a few minutes left needing to go on a 15-3 run to end the game?? if you expect that on your bets, I need to start tailing you

I'm not seeing how you're taking offense to what I'm saying but I'll humor you. Did you somehow just decide to take the peak of the lead and then decide that that peak should continue for the rest of the game? This is the NBA. It's made of runs. Everyone knows that. By no means am I saying Philly played well, they obviously didn't. They scored 4 points in the last 5 minutes, 3 of those points coming from the 3 iggy made with 4 seconds left.

However, if you look at the play by play, right after Philly scored 2 to go up 84-77 with 5:32 left, Thunder immediately answers back with a 2, and then missed shot by Philly, and then a 3 by the Thunder. 84-82 with 4:45 left. So from that point on, Thunder played the better ball on both sides by far.

I lost the play as well, but I'm sane enough to understand that this play wasn't a bad beat. It was just a play on a team that just seems to not be able to get it done when it counts. It is what it is. Good luck on this Chicago game.

[mikea33]

I like Wolves +6.5. Lakers defense is good but the PG play should really work to Wolves advatange IMO

[wguan2]

I like Wolves +6.5. Lakers defense is good but the PG play should really work to Wolves advatange IMO

kevin love is out

[Catchn_Picks]

Derrick Rose...you are a beast!

[Les_Nuts]

I'm not seeing how you're taking offense to what I'm saying but I'll humor you. Did you somehow just decide to take the peak of the lead and then decide that that peak should continue for the rest of the game? This is the NBA. It's made of runs. Everyone knows that. By no means am I saying Philly played well, they obviously didn't. They scored 4 points in the last 5 minutes, 3 of those points coming from the 3 iggy made with 4 seconds left.

However, if you look at the play by play, right after Philly scored 2 to go up 84-77 with 5:32 left, Thunder immediately answers back with a 2, and then missed shot by Philly, and then a 3 by the Thunder. 84-82 with 4:45 left. So from that point on, Thunder played the better ball on both sides by far.

I lost the play as well, but I'm sane enough to understand that this play wasn't a bad beat. It was just a play on a team that just seems to not be able to get it done when it counts. It is what it is. Good luck on this Chicago game.

Completely agree with this, with the FTs OKC missed in the last minute we should have been down 5/6 before the play that led to Iggy's 3 (taking into account Harden and Durant are both usually very good FT shooters) and so I do not see this loss as a bad beat. Sure it hurt that if Durant would have nailed the last FT we would have most likely covered

[mikea33]

Yeah guys wguan2 is right. Tough breaks but im sure anyone who has played past middle school understands basketball is a game of runs

[Love The Action]

I'm not seeing how you're taking offense to what I'm saying but I'll humor you. Did you somehow just decide to take the peak of the lead and then decide that that peak should continue for the rest of the game? This is the NBA. It's made of runs. Everyone knows that. By no means am I saying Philly played well, they obviously didn't. They scored 4 points in the last 5 minutes, 3 of those points coming from the 3 iggy made with 4 seconds left.

However, if you look at the play by play, right after Philly scored 2 to go up 84-77 with 5:32 left, Thunder immediately answers back with a 2, and then missed shot by Philly, and then a 3 by the Thunder. 84-82 with 4:45 left. So from that point on, Thunder played the better ball on both sides by far.

I lost the play as well, but I'm sane enough to understand that this play wasn't a bad beat. It was just a play on a team that just seems to not be able to get it done when it counts. It is what it is. Good luck on this Chicago game.

If that's not a bad beat, what is? To me it's an inane argument, but I would strongly disagree with you if you don't consider that a "bad beat." What's the point in arguing about this though, we all lost so just chalk it up and move on. That's just the NBA and if OKC didn't cover, those on OKC would be saying they suffered the bad beat.

[mikea33]

LTA, among all of these comments IDK if you saw my post about playing 2H trying to middle. LMK what you think!

[wguan2]

If that's not a bad beat, what is? To me it's an inane argument, but I would strongly disagree with you if you don't consider that a "bad beat." What's the point in arguing about this though, we all lost so just chalk it up and move on. That's just the NBA and if OKC didn't cover, those on OKC would be saying they suffered the bad beat.

If you read the previous posts, I said the exact same thing you said. Let's hope Chicago keeps this going.

[Love The Action]

LTA........great topic here.....dont need to allorborate on it, but feel free to.



Is trying to middling by playing 2H plays worth it long term or just greed???

Here is my example.

I have Kent St. -2
Score at halftime is 41-27 kent st.
ohio is -3 at half.

I palyed kent st for 330 to win 300........and played ohio 2H 220 to win 200.

Thoughts?

It just depends on your perceived edge. Every situation is different. There's no right or wrong answer because some situations it might be +ev to shoot for the middle and others it might not. It's not something I would necessarily try to do every night, but under the right circumstances could be profitable for someone that has put a lot of work into such endeavors and has a reliable approach to 2h plays. I rarely play halves as it simply increases the amount of variance you face, but if you think you have the edge then you should exploit it. GL.

[SlickRick1382]

If that's not a bad beat, what is? To me it's an inane argument, but I would strongly disagree with you if you don't consider that a "bad beat." What's the point in arguing about this though, we all lost so just chalk it up and move on. That's just the NBA and if OKC didn't cover, those on OKC would be saying they suffered the bad beat.

Agreed.

Regardless of how bad the 76ers played at the end of the game it doesn't change that the score was 90-88 with 4 seconds left when Durant missed his 2nd free throw.

If Durant makes the free throw, unless the 76ers make a desperation 3 to force OT, we win
If Philly recovers the rebound on the FT like they're supposed to we win.

Chances that he neither coverts the FT and that they don't recover the rebound are pretty slim. Def a bad beat wguan2.

[wguan2]

Agreed.

Regardless of how bad the 76ers played at the end of the game it doesn't change that the score was 90-88 with 4 seconds left when Durant missed his 2nd free throw.

If Durant makes the free throw, unless the 76ers make a desperation 3 to force OT, we win
If Philly recovers the rebound on the FT like they're supposed to we win.

Chances that he neither coverts the FT and that they don't recover the rebound are pretty slim. Def a bad beat wguan2.

I agree that those chances are slim. But what are the chances that Durant misses both free throws and Iggy drains a 3 within the 10 seconds after the missed free throws though? All I was saying was that all the bad things that could've happened for both sides, did happen and it just so happened that the okc backers got the last laugh.

But like LTA said, moving on.

[Chili_Powder]

That was so damn entertaining lol....i had a big position and a parlay at OKC -3.5, and I pushed an earlier bet at OKC -4, now all i need for the parlay to pay is Pistons -6 vs Bobcats

troll alert, now scram

[bmur714]

cash it on the bulls!! thank you LTA

[pacocn]

Lta, nice call on the bulls

[Dave88]

Good Call LTA.

[mikea33]

thanks LTA!

[BluexBlue]

Thank you, LTA

[wguan2]

Nice! Keep grinding!

[smarotta09]

nice call on the bulls LTA, tail you almost everynight and i liked the bulls too so went alittle bigger

[TC Woods]

Who's the genius that changed the web page????

[doubleplay]

Who's the genius that changed the web page????

[snufflyjoe]

Thanks for the bulls pick lta

[Love The Action]

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 2/29/2012 Recap

1 - 1 = -0.1x

NBA 2011-2012 Season

86 - 70 = +16.65x

A disgusting loss with Philly destroyed what should have been a 2-0 day. Variance owes us another one now....onto to Thursday. GL.

[nocode1]

LTA love OKC tomorrow -1 thoughts?

I actually might take OKC -1.....clippers and Miami to win in a parlay

[NOREGRETS]

Sure... The Jazz pick last night to tear it up... One night we lay away... Let's try for a positive unit day boys. LTA, mix up those potions and give us some good ones. Heart breaker with Philly, happens though and goes the other way sometimes.

[Catchn_Picks]

Sure... The Jazz pick last night to tear it up... One night we lay away... Let's try for a positive unit day boys. LTA, mix up those potions and give us some good ones. Heart breaker with Philly, happens though and goes the other way sometimes.

Totally agree No Regrets...if you can't shake off the bad beats and go on...well, you are not a long timer in this game.