LTA's NBA Plays

[Kalibongo]

I love those actions!

[ClausensHands]

hmm, at home theyve beaten los angeles lakers, chicago, and orlando...and the hawks twice if it counts.

they've lost at home to miami, san antonio, los angeles clippers, and dallas. seems like theyre about .500 at home vs contenders.

not disagreeing with any of LTAs plays ever, as I'm in no position to, just the bolded.

and whatever on semantics, obviously every team 'loves to take down heavyweights in their own house'. i was responding to whether or not they do.

Well I do count the Hawks, even though I hate them. All of those games they lost were close except for the Heat game. Anyways, yeah maybe my statement was over-zealous. Trying to get pumped for the game and subsequent duckets

[Catchn_Picks]

Philly hanging in the second quarter but getting killed on the glass especially on the offensive end. Gotta change this.

[chief42]

If it wasn't for the Thunder shooting themselves in the foot with turnovers, Sixers would be in trouble. Imagine how good OKC would/should be if they could minimize that.

[mikea33]

LTA, any late leans? Potential Plays?

[JM92]

Not even the refs are helping. Durant shoved that kid in the face. Lately is temper seems to be changing a little bit. Don't know if for the better or not, to be honest.

And don't get me wrng here, I love Durant even wrote a piece 'bout him for college. That should've been a Technical, at least, on him.

[mikea33]

LTA........great topic here.....dont need to allorborate on it, but feel free to.



Is trying to middling by playing 2H plays worth it long term or just greed???

Here is my example.

I have Kent St. -2
Score at halftime is 41-27 kent st.
ohio is -3 at half.

I palyed kent st for 330 to win 300........and played ohio 2H 220 to win 200.

Thoughts?

[BubbleTeaJelly]

i believe that betting in that manner is -EV longterm

[eastern2]

i believe that betting in that manner is -EV longterm

Agree w/this

[mikea33]

Can you guys explain to me what that means???

[Catchn_Picks]

Come on Philly...stop the collapse.

[Dexter]

nm......

[fitguy67]

Mikeaa,

it means that if you (or more practically a team of cloned you's...so you could cover the NBA or NCAA slate with enough attention to look as keenly as necessary to execute such a strategy for a year)...or alternately think of just you following this strategy for dozens of seasons

anyhow, you get the idea...thousands of bets...all you at your best and doing your best to be clever and profit were to do this, to the best of your ability, consistently for a long period...

the result would be (drumroll please)...

negative...expected value "EV"=-ve

...sure you'd have nice runs but there'd be downturns with the latter overwhelming the former...

why?

probably because the books know intermission-bettors (and live-bettors even worse) are action junkies who don't mind paying a bit to "get into" whatever they want to get into...the fact that you don't have much time to "shop" and evaluate before you "pull the trigger" means you can't be as savvy...you won't have hours to carefully weigh the inherent probabilities in your view and contrast them to the probabilites inherent in the odds on offer (just NOT ENOUGH TIME...to find the same sort of value as, say LTA here who agonizes over a half point here or not wanting to pay a little extra juice there)...see my last post to see the huge effect that seemingly small differences in the line that you bite at makes over the haul

time-rushed trigger-pulling just can't do as well as methodical value-analysis and careful shopping to lock it in

when you're rushed between periods or during a game with the line moving your desire to "get in" takes precedence over savvy shopping...if you don't like the price 6 hours before a game, you can turn your nose up at it and know you have a good chance to get it later...but between quarters or halfs or periods your fear of "being left out" and failing to capitalize on your good idea forces "compromises"...and the negative effects of these compromises accumulate over the long haul (just as sure as death and taxes)...eg. that half-point extra that you couldn't get or the -115 you had to pay instead of the -110 you were after...over the haul it pulls your "expected value" inevitably below zero

[Catchn_Picks]

Huge 3 by Iggy!

[WalkingLuckCharm]

Wow finally a bucket for sixes lol

[mikea33]

Thanks buddy

I doubled up my profit for 500 in that kent game!!!! feels very good, kind of like an action reverse hit LOL.

[CLITcommander44]

Wow worst fuckinggg loss holy crap

[Catchn_Picks]

Horrible, heartbreaking loss.

[Dave88]

Brutal.
Let's go Bulls!

[absolutkaos]

lazy f'n box out...brutal

[Hw101]

Philly wow is al I can say

[RL75]

After Iguodala made the 3 with less than 5 seconds left the odds of losing that bet +3.5 had to be less than 5%. Especially considering Philly didn't have any timeouts left and Durant going to the line. Unbelievable.

[WalkingLuckCharm]

Hahaha what a funny way to lose $100 lolol

[dlunc3]

philly up 84-77 then lose 92-88... how is that even possible

[Catchn_Picks]

After Iguodala made the 3 with less than 5 seconds left the odds of losing that bet +3.5 had to be less than 5%. Especially considering Philly didn't have any timeouts left and Durant going to the line. Unbelievable.

I say you are spot on. Of 100 same situations at home, less than 5 end up covering the 3.5 spot.

Miraculous cover by OKC, imo.

However, PHILLY IS NOT READY FOR PRIME TIME. They beat weaker teams with good d and lose at home to good teams. If they are going to win one round in the playoffs they have got to get better.

[JM92]

Didn't even see the last play. Worst game for me to see, ever. And it wasn't really about the money in the end. How many rimouts and pump fakes can one team get? Just shoot the ******* ball. What the heck was this.

[IllyPhilly[DOC]]

That was so bad by the 6ers. Westbrook was a off rebounding monster, and a point a point guard. That last rebound was the worst!

[jas19illini]

Fuckin Philly man. Wtf. Figures that they'd lose by a half pt after lta mentioned not buying the half pt tonight. That's just shitty luck.

[wguan2]

it happens. moving on to the next. even getting the cover with that 3.5 with iggy drilling that 3 and thunder missing like 4/5 free throws would've been lucky win on our side. it was a close game the entire game. lets hope this chicago game cashes. bol

[Speedy88]

Philly is such a piece of sh*t. Everytime I bet on them they absolutely roll over and die in the end.

[WalkingLuckCharm]

Welcome dlunc, to the nba

[alamo]

Philly scored 3pts in the final 5m 30s. Unfcking real meltdown.

[JM92]

it happens. moving on to the next. even getting the cover with that 3.5 with iggy drilling that 3 and thunder missing like 4/5 free throws would've been lucky win on our side. it was a close game the entire game. lets hope this chicago game cashes. bol

Did you see the game? The Thunder shot around their average from the foul line in the game. Sixers actually a little better than average. Not even the refs helped and this shouldn't have been a close game. As proven, the Sixers are a terrible match up for the Thunder.

Anyway, BOl for the next one everybody, let's get these!

[WalkingLuckCharm]

Eh good luck guys I'm on the spurs

[blacklabpit]

Miraculous cover by OKC, imo.

That was so damn entertaining lol....i had a big position and a parlay at OKC -3.5, and I pushed an earlier bet at OKC -4, now all i need for the parlay to pay is Pistons -6 vs Bobcats