LTA's NBA Plays

[alamo]

Durants three prayer at the end of the 1st qtr seemed to change everything. 2nd qtr Thunder have come out and barely missed a shot.

[Pick'nParlays]

hell yes

took some props on ellis and curry over the points

also took first half tt over 51 (gsw)

after the warriors collapse in memphis.... i will sit out a full game bet. i feel they should catch okc sleeping but there 4th quarter play is atrocious.

[Dave88]

phew... what a half.

[chief42]

what book do people like for live betting?

[Catchn_Picks]

2nd half line GS +1...provides no additional value.

We got one real shot in the 2nd half. If OKC is getting worn down it will show here. A big 2nd quarter and a lot of effort. They could show fatigue somewhere in the 2nd half. I'm happy GS is still hanging around after that OKC onslaught of made baskets.

[Catchn_Picks]

Wow...Ellis and Curry heating up...OKC missing shots now.

Beautiful 3rd quarter.

[pacocn]

Fasten your seat belts guys, this is
going to be a wild ride

[YouHave2outs]

what book do people like for live betting?

i have sportsbook.com and 5dimes.com and when i'm honestly all about it i can find arbitrage at least once on a weekend

[chief42]

i have sportsbook.com and 5dimes.com and when i'm honestly all about it i can find arbitrage at least once on a weekend

thank you good to know

[pacocn]

My only hope is that Lta is sleeping peacefully,
and dreaming of Montae Ellis hitting a 3 at the
buzzer.

[chief42]

[pacocn]

Defense, need a Curry steal

[CheeseHead]

Had it. Blew it... onto the next one

[pacocn]

Congrats Thunder backers, hats off
to Okc the motivation level was high.
Entertaining game.

[Dtown13]

Love the play, I can see Thunder conceding early after any big runs by golden state

So much for that theory.

[Pick'nParlays]

warriors in the 4th quarter... call me a homer. thats my team but they cant figure it out in the 4th... memphis now this
[/quote]

[Speedy88]

Next time LTA, looking forward to your plays tomorrow. Big card to choose from, you typically do really well when you have a lot of options to choose from.

[Dave88]

Unbelievable (again!) Parlayed GSW +2.5 with the over.
How long 'til Baseball season???

[m11chen]

We got one real shot in the 2nd half. If OKC is getting worn down it will show here. A big 2nd quarter and a lot of effort. They could show fatigue somewhere in the 2nd half. I'm happy GS is still hanging around after that OKC onslaught of made baskets.

I don't think OKC ever gets worn down. These guys are all horses. Ibaka and Westbrook are just purely ridiculous athletes. Durant is so skinny and long, he's like one of those Ethiopian marathoners that can go and go and go forever. And Harden plays the game at half speed, never seems to exert any effort what-so-ever, but somehow gets wherever he wants.

The rest/fatigue angle is useless when capping OKC.

[JM92]

Although I got lucky on the spread, no doubt, it's undeniable what I said and what Michen said: the fatigue angle with OKC is Bogus. at least for now, maybe it will change later down the season specially closer to the playoffs.

[Redscot]

btw, the same friend wants to know what it means if it burns when he pisses...

. Good to see you around fitguy. Haven't seen you since baseball season, hope all is well

[Redscot]

I don't think OKC ever gets worn down. These guys are all horses. Ibaka and Westbrook are just purely ridiculous athletes. Durant is so skinny and long, he's like one of those Ethiopian marathoners that can go and go and go forever. And Harden plays the game at half speed, never seems to exert any effort what-so-ever, but somehow gets wherever he wants.

The rest/fatigue angle is useless when capping OKC.

.

Glad to see this thread back in a positive direction. Looking forward to your plays today LTA.

Checking out the Hawks/Pacers game atm. Atlanta has lost 3 straight at home and hasn't played a game of 90 + pace since San Antonio 7 games ago. Surprisingly their defense hasn't suffered much(stats wise at least) with the loss of Horford (giving up only 90.6 since he went down.) In their first meeting they played at a brisk 97 pace and put up only 180 despite a combined .450 ish shooting percentage. Seems like this should be a game where Atlanta needs to make a stand, and stop the bleeding against a potential playoff rival. These usually play out as a grind/physical style game. Would like to hear your thoughts after you look at this one bro

[Love The Action]

.

Glad to see this thread back in a positive direction. Looking forward to your plays today LTA.

Checking out the Hawks/Pacers game atm. Atlanta has lost 3 straight at home and hasn't played a game of 90 + pace since San Antonio 7 games ago. Surprisingly their defense hasn't suffered much(stats wise at least) with the loss of Horford (giving up only 90.6 since he went down.) In their first meeting they played at a brisk 97 pace and put up only 180 despite a combined .450 ish shooting percentage. Seems like this should be a game where Atlanta needs to make a stand, and stop the bleeding against a potential playoff rival. These usually play out as a grind/physical style game. Would like to hear your thoughts after you look at this one bro

As you said, they played at a 97 PACE, but still went under the 183 total set for that game because of unusually poor shooting. Consequently, the oddsmakers should have adjusted the total downwards for those game. However, this game opened at 184.5 and got hit by immediate over money. Hmmm...

[Love The Action]

I don't think OKC ever gets worn down. These guys are all horses. Ibaka and Westbrook are just purely ridiculous athletes. Durant is so skinny and long, he's like one of those Ethiopian marathoners that can go and go and go forever. And Harden plays the game at half speed, never seems to exert any effort what-so-ever, but somehow gets wherever he wants.

The rest/fatigue angle is useless when capping OKC.

Hmmmm, considering okc was 2-5 ATS in b2b games before last nights last second cover/push depending on your number, I would argue you are incorrect and simply overreacting to one game in which GS blew it as opposed to an easy win by okc. You talk as if this was a blowout win by okc. However they barely got out of GS with a win by the skin of their teeth. Plus based on the numbers, you would be severely in the red if you backed okc in fatigue spots. Take the emotion out of it, look at the stats rationally, and you will see that your comment is not really accurate.

Good luck buddy

[Love The Action]

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 2/7/2012 Recap

0 - 1 = -1x

NBA 2011-2012 Season

63 - 52 = +11.35x

Onto Wednesday, good luck.

[JM92]

But LTA, regardless the winner... look at that score! OKC scored 119 points, they shot 52%, had 15 TOs (average for them, actually below if you take into consideration the pace I think), 95%ft, 42% 3s... they did suck at defense, I'll give that one up. Still, hard for me to see them as fatigue. Anyone notested how a "fatigued" Westbrook, 6'3 guy, blocked Batum with his head almost at rim height @ portland? If that was D-Rose or Durant (or westbrook before the Playoffs), that would've been one of the plays of the year already.

Still, I can't think that, come March, they will be starting to show some signs of wear down as all the teams, or at least, try to "slow it down", with the playoffs in mind. I honestly think Thunder's best shot at making it to the finals is literaly runnin' out the opposing teams in the West. conference.

[JM92]

Oh, and Good Luck for tonight. Gotta college exam now, then family snack, then birthday dinner, probably won't be able to look at the games till its almost midnight. Will be waitin' on your plays

[Redscot]

As you said, they played at a 97 PACE, but still went under the 183 total set for that game because of unusually poor shooting. Consequently, the oddsmakers should have adjusted the total downwards for those game. However, this game opened at 184.5 and got hit by immediate over money. Hmmm...

Yeah, I misread Atlanta's shooting % in the first game, so my combined shooting % was inaccurate in my first post, although they did go 11 of 27 from 3 combined. I see in that first game they had James Capers, Tony Brothers, Kevin Cutler as the ref's, where do they stand o/u wise? Thanks for the input bro .

[Love The Action]

But LTA, regardless the winner... look at that score! OKC scored 119 points, they shot 52%, had 15 TOs (average for them, actually below if you take into consideration the pace I think), 95%ft, 42% 3s... they did suck at defense, I'll give that one up. Still, hard for me to see them as fatigue. Anyone notested how a "fatigued" Westbrook, 6'3 guy, blocked Batum with his head almost at rim height @ portland? If that was D-Rose or Durant (or westbrook before the Playoffs), that would've been one of the plays of the year already.

Still, I can't think that, come March, they will be starting to show some signs of wear down as all the teams, or at least, try to "slow it down", with the playoffs in mind. I honestly think Thunder's best shot at making it to the finals is literaly runnin' out the opposing teams in the West. conference.

Every game is different and GS played right into their hands last night. Regardless, how can you say fatigue does not affect them when their ats record in fatigue spots say otherwise? If you blindly backed okc in fatigue spots you would be in the red, while if you blindly faded them in fatigue spots you would be profitable in the black. My point is that you shouldnt let one game cloud your judgment. Keep the big picture in front of you. Okc is not a team that generally covers in fatigue spots....at least so far this season. If GS won by one point, would that comment have even been made? I just think that comment was more out of frustration than based in reality. No big deal, but so far this season, okc has a losing ats record in fatigue spots.

[Redscot]

LTA, are you keeping an eye on Coaches that are doing a good job spreading out the minutes. Perhaps sacrificing a little in the now in order to be healthy and better rested (added benefit of developing the bench) when it comes to the playoffs. We've seen a slew of injuries lately, may be mostly coincidence, but the bodies ability to recover without significant rest can sometimes turn a nagging injury into a debilitating one. I would think the coaches that are going full throttle atm, may see an adverse affect come April/May etc.

[Catchn_Picks]

I don't think OKC ever gets worn down. These guys are all horses. Ibaka and Westbrook are just purely ridiculous athletes. Durant is so skinny and long, he's like one of those Ethiopian marathoners that can go and go and go forever. And Harden plays the game at half speed, never seems to exert any effort what-so-ever, but somehow gets wherever he wants.

The rest/fatigue angle is useless when capping OKC.

Completely agree M11. OKC is emerging as one of the elite teams in the league this year. They are younger and have been able to withstand this brutal schedule this year better than most.

Ultra impressed with their effort tonight in a game that should have run them out of the house. GS played well. Ellis went off. OKC had so many answers.

Books took a beating on the game as the over line steam was very big throughout the day and never stopped. Most figured the tired legs would show up on the Defense end of the court and they would have been right.

IMO, right play (especially after the over steam made that play impossible) but wrong results.

Catch

[m11chen]

Every game is different and GS played right into their hands last night. Regardless, how can you say fatigue does not affect them when their ats record in fatigue spots say otherwise? If you blindly backed okc in fatigue spots you would be in the red, while if you blindly faded them in fatigue spots you would be profitable in the black. My point is that you shouldnt let one game cloud your judgment. Keep the big picture in front of you. Okc is not a team that generally covers in fatigue spots....at least so far this season. If GS won by one point, would that comment have even been made? I just think that comment was more out of frustration than based in reality. No big deal, but so far this season, okc has a losing ats record in fatigue spots.

I think the 2-5 ATS is a bit misleading. It's still a relatively small sample size. And look at the teams they've faced on b2b:

Wolves 2nd game of season - spread must have been large this game as Wolves were vastly undervalued
Dallas - good team
Portland - good team, bad matchup as Crash Wallace is one of the few dudes that can kind of check KD
Houston - like wolves, spread must have been large early in the season, while Houston was undervalued
NO - bad team, Thunder won by 10 on the road
Spurs - everyone gets destroyed @ SA
GS - just covered, and this was after a ridiculous OT game vs Portland

OKC is getting a lot of short spreads lately, on the road, in fatigue spots, and I think there's probably some value there when OKC is a small fav... depending on the opponent ofc. I wouldn't bet them vs a solid team like Portland (even tho they won), but against a GSW defense that lets more guys score than Joan Collins... I'll roll the dice

Obviously, I would never blindly back OKC in fatigue spots, but I don't think fatigue affects them as much as other teams. These guys pass the eyeball test, which although unscientific I feel still counts for something. Whenever I think fatigue with OKC, I just remember that triple OT game in vs Memphis in playoffs when everyone else is gassed, doing the whole bent over - hands on hip routine, while Westbrook is still going full speed flying everywhere with Durant striding past people like a giraffe on caffeine. OKC wins by 10 in 3OT. This was like their signature "we-dont-get-tired" game, but there have been others.

Much respect to your capping LTA, but I don't think the people here are overreacting to 1 game.

[m11chen]

The other thing I consider is that OKC is such a great FT shooting team, with KD , Westy, and Harden, that as a small fav, in a tight game like last night if they're up by a little, they'll get a bunch of free points to pad the spread at the end just from fouls.

Even their big guys like Ibaka can hit their freebies at a decent clip. I think this is also worth considering.

[pacocn]

I don't think OKC ever gets worn down. These guys are all horses. Ibaka and Westbrook are just purely ridiculous athletes. Durant is so skinny and long, he's like one of those Ethiopian marathoners that can go and go and go forever. And Harden plays the game at half speed, never seems to exert any effort what-so-ever, but somehow gets wherever he wants. The rest/fatigue angle is useless when capping OKC.

The purpose of this thread is to share these type of comments pre-tip. However, it is good info. for future considerations. If Warriors grab a couple of rebounds late, most notably the Durant miss late in the game, we would all be giving these this morning.

[Love The Action]

I think the 2-5 ATS is a bit misleading. It's still a relatively small sample size. And look at the teams they've faced on b2b:

Wolves 2nd game of season - spread must have been large this game as Wolves were vastly undervalued
Dallas - good team
Portland - good team, bad matchup as Crash Wallace is one of the few dudes that can kind of check KD
Houston - like wolves, spread must have been large early in the season, while Houston was undervalued
NO - bad team, Thunder won by 10 on the road
Spurs - everyone gets destroyed @ SA
GS - just covered, and this was after a ridiculous OT game vs Portland

OKC is getting a lot of short spreads lately, on the road, in fatigue spots, and I think there's probably some value there when OKC is a small fav... depending on the opponent ofc. I wouldn't bet them vs a solid team like Portland (even tho they won), but against a GSW defense that lets more guys score than Joan Collins... I'll roll the dice

Obviously, I would never blindly back OKC in fatigue spots, but I don't think fatigue affects them as much as other teams. These guys pass the eyeball test, which although unscientific I feel still counts for something. Whenever I think fatigue with OKC, I just remember that triple OT game in vs Memphis in playoffs when everyone else is gassed, doing the whole bent over - hands on hip routine, while Westbrook is still going full speed flying everywhere with Durant striding past people like a giraffe on caffeine. OKC wins by 10 in 3OT. This was like their signature "we-dont-get-tired" game, but there have been others.

Much respect to your capping LTA, but I don't think the people here are overreacting to 1 game.

You are correct that the seven game sample size is not statistically significant. I also understand that just like the bulls, okc plays hard 100% and like to smash people. They are a young, hungry and energetic team.

However, I cant understand how you can say there is value in okc in fatigue games when they have been unsuccessful in such games regardless of the sample size. Those two are polar opposites.

Again, I just doubt we would even be having this conversation if okc lost by 1 instead of winning by 3. Im not saying that okc is or is not affected by fatigue in fact, however, the numbers so far say they are human just like every other team. Regardless of success last night, that is a great sutuational spot to fade the fatigued team, assuming the number makes sense.

Good conversation.....thanks!