LTA's NBA Plays

[dlunc3]

Assuming you all mean ok city?

yea, okc thunder

[JM92]

As I said before, im on the thunder. and I like the under.

[SoxSide Irish]

[Mooks]

LTA quick question are you done with this thread? If so I enjoyed your write ups!! Hate to see you leave because these idiots

[SlickRick1382]

@Donnie

Isn't there some RLM on the Thunder / Warriors game?

Could of sworn I noticed it but didn't play anything yet since I just got back in the office and was kind of busy

[dlunc3]

LTA quick question are you done with this thread? If so I enjoyed your write ups!! Hate to see you leave because these idiots

he'll be back.. probably just busy tonight..

he doesnt let those idiots get to him

[Love The Action]

LTA, thoughts on this?

http://forum.sbrforum.com/players-ta...-one-team.html

This is not a good idea. I do not recommend this strategy.

You should play no more than 3% of your BR on each standard play. If you really like a play and feel you have a large edge, you can go up to as much as 5% of your BR on that play. The best way to build a BR with minimal risk is follow a conservative money management scheme. There are a million articles on line about the different methods. Just google "sports betting money management" and start your research. GL

[SlickRick1382]

LTA quick question are you done with this thread? If so I enjoyed your write ups!! Hate to see you leave because these idiots

LTA won't quit because of that. He either has no play or is busy with his family and work and that's why he didn't post.

He's not one of the little emo kids running around here that will quit when people talk bad about him in his thread. He's a grown man and grown men don't care or need to validate themselves to anyone else. He'll be back on tomorrow if he doesn't post today ...

[Love The Action]

LTA how do you go about getting the best lines? Grabbing a line before it moves three points like last night takes some skill. Any insight?

I use my model to (1) project a final result and (2) predict where the market will go independent of public perception. You need to stay ahead of the market by projecting a fair line independent of public perception and know what number you are looking for. Once you see that number, you have to jump on it and trust that your projections will result in the line movement going in your favor.

This is a great topic. Let's discuss later tonight after I post my lone play on the late game. Please remind me. Thanks.

[Love The Action]

I find this thread fascinating, in a good practical nuts-n-bolts educational way...an ongoing discussion of the "fundamental & technical analysis" issues of the data streams generated by betting lines. In the money-line market it's quite straightforward, but for Totals and Spreads with fairly fixed -110-ish odds things are a bit harder to conceptualize (kind of like how "time zone" conversions can drive you nuts...never quite sure whether to add or subract).

What helps me to keep "line talk" in the Totals market is to think of the "Under" market as the market for "Ceilings"...and the "Over" as the market for "Floors". Think: "under the ceiling"/"over the floor". Given fixed odds at say -110, increasing support for the Under side weighs down on the ceiling as motivated "buyers" must accept worse deals (the discomfort of a lower ceiling) if they want to get into their under play ...Conversely, increasing support on the Over side pushes up on the floor number as motivated buyers must accept worse deals (and the discomfort of a higher floor) if they want to get into a position.

As for the spreads, you can employ the same sort of "comfort" logic to the deficits or surpluses involved. If support for the favorite increases, buyers are willing to accept more discomfort (a larger deficit that must be overcome)...if support for the dog increases we have those buyers having to accept less comfort (a smaller cushion) in order to get into their desired position.

Hope this analogy helps someone else to follow the intriguing "back and forth" about line moves.

[Love The Action]

hey lta what do you think about boston -14? The line looks like it might move in their favor. But Boston has been playing good recently offensively and defensively. While the Cats have been terrible especially on the road. Pierce is also 9 points away from passing Bird in the Celtics all-time scoring list, which should bring in an excited crowd even against the cats.

Sorry bud...I had a crazy day at work. I liked the under in this game, but didn't play it because once it dropped below 177. I did not like Boston tonight. Hope you cash if you play it

[mikea33]

lets post that play

[SlickRick1382]

This is not a good idea. I do not recommend this strategy. You should play no more than 3% of your BR on each standard play. If you really like a play and feel you have a large edge, you can go up to as much as 5% of your BR on that play. The best way to build a BR with minimal risk is follow a conservative money management scheme. There are a million articles on line about the different methods. Just google "sports betting money management" and start your research. GL

Speak of the devil.

To build on this for Kalibongo...

If you go ML then that's going to get SUPER expensive when you're trying that system on a team like the Heat who is heavily favored most of the time.

If you're trying this on ATS then it can still cripple your bankroll. It's possible to lose 7 in a row ATS as several teams have done so including the Heat last year.

If you're trying this at 1 unit bet and then every subsequent bet is to recoup losses and win one unit. After your 6th loss you're basically betting 64 units to recoup 63 lost units and make one unit back. If you start with a 100 unit bankroll at this point you wouldn't even have enough to cover this bet and need to reload an additional 27 units just to make this one bet. What happens if they lose? You would need to load an additional 128 units.

That's just a bad system and horrible idea. I don't recommend chasing, never profitable over the long term. The only chase type systems I've ever done have to do with NHL and even then it's just a 3 game chase. If they lose all three you cut your losses most of the time and move on to the next team that fits a SPECIFIC criteria that has been shown to be profitable over a long period of time.

Best of luck in whatever you choose

[Love The Action]

IMHO....

This thread is hotter than hell but it's a lot harder to follow LTA in NBA. I usually get his play after the Pinny line he got has moved.

Basically, unless I want to sit here all day and blindly wait for LTA to post his play.... I maybe better off thinking for myself for once... NFL has a whole week of movement where as NBA is totally different.

Is there an SBR app? Or some way I can get a heads up when LTA posts his play? I hate checking multiple times. Especially when I have lost by a half point 3 times already this NBA season.

I always recommend you guys make your own plays. I don't want to be "followed." I want to post my plays with writeups so we can talk about them and everyone can get better. I like to hear your guys' input as much as you want to hear mine.

Whatever people think about me or my intentions for posting here, the truth is that I like to discuss sports investing and I want to get better at this business. I thought SBR was a good place for that. That is the sole reason I post here.

I really don't want to waste my time with twitter. If I was a tout and wanted to build up a client list, I would post on twitter and every other forum out there. However, for the most part, I like the people on SBR and would rather just post my plays here. Sorry bud, I wish there was an easier way to get my plays. But I'm a busy guy and can't be posting my plays 5 different ways. Moreover, however, I think you should just use my writeups to set your own plays. Just use me as a reference....I don't want you or anyone else to blindly tail me. Good luck buddy.

[Love The Action]

If u have a smartphone go to thred tools nd subscribe to thread with instant email notification. Take care and gl.

Thanks for trying to help out Tony....good luck to you as well

[Love The Action]

This is all I posted bro, I don't go to other threads to fan flames, I have better things to do, just want you to know.

Good luck today .

Sorry buddy, but my comments about not going into other threads had absolutely nothing to do with you and was not intended for you. Not sure where you got that idea, but I always appreciate your and everyone else's support. GL

[Pick'nParlays]

thanks LTA bol to you too

I always recommend you guys make your own plays. I don't want to be "followed." I want to post my plays with writeups so we can talk about them and everyone can get better. I like to hear your guys' input as much as you want to hear mine.

Whatever people think about me or my intentions for posting here, the truth is that I like to discuss sports investing and I want to get better at this business. I thought SBR was a good place for that. That is the sole reason I post here.

I really don't want to waste my time with twitter. If I was a tout and wanted to build up a client list, I would post on twitter and every other forum out there. However, for the most part, I like the people on SBR and would rather just post my plays here. Sorry bud, I wish there was an easier way to get my plays. But I'm a busy guy and can't be posting my plays 5 different ways. Moreover, however, I think you should just use my writeups to set your own plays. Just use me as a reference....I don't want you or anyone else to blindly tail me. Good luck buddy.

[Pick'nParlays]

GSW and the under.....?

[Love The Action]

Definitely would be a nice feature for SBR to add...just something where you could get a notification when a certain poster makes any post. Wish LTA had a Twitter at least, I know a lot of guys do that so that's easy to get instant notifications on...but for free you gotta take what you can get I suppose

As I said above, I like doing SBR because I can post writeups. However, I barely have time to post here and I really don't have time to post my plays in a bunch of different locations. Hopefully, SBR can solve this problem for everyone and allow you to get notifications only when I post in the thread. Perhaps send a mod a PM and ask....GL buddy

[Love The Action]

exactly, i mean we are getting great picks that are hitting over 50% for free.... how can we really ask LTA to do more? if it was simply a forum feature that LTA could turn on in the thread he owns, or that users could select "notifiy me when thread owner posts" that would be HUGE.... lookin forward to tonights picks.... GL all

[Love The Action]

Have something in the works that I hope helps our community. Got a little delayed since it's tax season for me and I got backed up quick but I should be rolling it out soon I hope

[Love The Action]

No plays today?

Coming up in a few minutes...just responding to old posts now.

[Love The Action]

Lets get back to basketball who else like the Warriors tonight
at home. Okc overtime last night, late into Oak town, and Warriors
rested.

[Love The Action]

Should we report a missing person??

Just a crazy day at work

[mikea33]

Is warriors the play?

[Love The Action]

The total for GSW game is at 208... seems a little high. Liked the over at 204 when it opened but now the under looks like could be good value.

I agree....slightly hight at 208 or above. I would not play the under tonight though. Bad refs for that, plus the pace should be fast. GL

[Love The Action]

LTA quick question are you done with this thread? If so I enjoyed your write ups!! Hate to see you leave because these idiots

No! Just busy at work today...GL

[Love The Action]

he'll be back.. probably just busy tonight..

he doesnt let those idiots get to him

Exactly

[Love The Action]

LTA won't quit because of that. He either has no play or is busy with his family and work and that's why he didn't post.

He's not one of the little emo kids running around here that will quit when people talk bad about him in his thread. He's a grown man and grown men don't care or need to validate themselves to anyone else. He'll be back on tomorrow if he doesn't post today ...

Exactly x2

[Catchn_Picks]

Coming up in a few minutes...just responding to old posts now.

I just consulted with my crystal ball. It has a 100% accuracy. It now says...

"LTA will post a pick from the GS/OKC game tonight."

I hope It keeps up the perfect accuracy.

[Overbettor]

Lta, how long does it take you to cap a game and approximately how much time do you spend daily capping the whole board? With work and my new baby I just cant devote the amount of time needed to completely evaluate all the games day in and day out.

[TC Woods]

Line is going up on GS game

[pacocn]

Lta, please tell me you like the Warriors tonight

[YouHave2outs]

Line is going up on GS game

line hasn't changed at pinny in the last hour or so, unless i missed one and it went right back to +2 -106

[Catchn_Picks]

Lta, please tell me you like the Warriors tonight

I can at least be confident that it will not be the over in the GS game. LTA never takes a line over after a 4 point jump.

-EV, for sure.