LTA's NBA Plays

ChicagoCover · 02-08-12, 10:06 AM

What's the plays

Love The Action · 02-08-12, 10:34 AM

Originally posted by Redscot

LTA, are you keeping an eye on Coaches that are doing a good job spreading out the minutes. Perhaps sacrificing a little in the now in order to be healthy and better rested (added benefit of developing the bench) when it comes to the playoffs. We've seen a slew of injuries lately, may be mostly coincidence, but the bodies ability to recover without significant rest can sometimes turn a nagging injury into a debilitating one. I would think the coaches that are going full throttle atm, may see an adverse affect come April/May etc.

Not so much coaches, but player minutes is something I weigh. Capping effort is pivotal in the nba.

fitguy67 · 02-08-12, 10:48 AM

Thanks for remembering me, Redscot...i tend to operate in stealth mode...and one of the reasons is that I really don't "get" forum-ware (didn't know how to quote till last night...don't know how to thank or send points etc. etc.)...my big frustration now is how to adjust the default time zone (sbr time stamps everything 13 hours ahead...i did post this question 2 days ago and still no response.)

Hey, since I'm thirteen hours ahead...guess i'll just tell you guys "what happened" on the games you're agonizing over.

absolutkaos · 02-08-12, 10:56 AM

Originally posted by fitguy67

Thanks for remembering me, Redscot...i tend to operate in stealth mode...and one of the reasons is that I really don't "get" forum-ware (didn't know how to quote till last night...don't know how to thank or send points etc. etc.)...my big frustration now is how to adjust the default time zone (sbr time stamps everything 13 hours ahead...i did post this question 2 days ago and still no response.)

Hey, since I'm thirteen hours ahead...guess i'll just tell you guys "what happened" on the games you're agonizing over.

user control panel > edit options > select your timezone (about 75% of the way down the page)

Love The Action · 02-08-12, 11:04 AM

Originally posted by ChicagoCover

What's the plays

You tell me CC....what do you like?

I have some leans, but nothing concrete yet. Im heading into work now and will have a busy day, so I am just going to wait and see if the market can create a little more value on my leans. GL

rjohnso4 · 02-08-12, 11:08 AM

I'm really liking Bulls -9 and Heat -4. Two great teams playing two below average teams screams cover to me. What do you all think?

dshaffe4 · 02-08-12, 11:10 AM

I like the Spurs tonight ATS and with a little sprinkle on the moneyline. Big RLM so far.

Hunner24 · 02-08-12, 11:10 AM

Been reading threads since baseball season, but this is my first post. Just trying to learn more about capping and making good "investment" bets instead of shooting from the hip.

LTA,

Just wondering what you think about this Magic/Heat game. I like the U191 thats currently up. That is the exact average of the 4 meetings between this teams last year, but as we know this is a much different season. Although the Heat play at a high PACE (and the Magic aren't at the bottom on the pack either), both teams are also good defensive teams for the most part, and top 10 defensive rebounding teams, cutting down on second shot chances. I think this defensive aspect is very important, seeing as how Orlando in particular has REALLY struggled in the last month against top 12 DEF EFF teams to the tune of averaging 82 points in those 8 games. Miami has been pretty decent against these same top 12 teams, although they only have a sample size of 3 games in the last month since Wade has returned. They are averaging 98.333, however, they are only giving up 87 in these games with all 3 staying under the 191 total currently available for the game. Lastly, with Miami playing their 3rd in 4 days and the second of a b2b, I think Orlando's defensive abilities can keep their scoring in the mid-90s. I personally see this game as a 96-90 Miami win for a 186 total, which is 5 points of value, and two scores difference.

What do you think/have this game at LTA? Thanks for helping me learn more!

Hunter

ram1502 · 02-08-12, 12:00 PM

I'm liking the spurs/sixers under. These are two top tier teams from opposing conferences and I expect this to be a playoff type atmosphere. Each team is only giving up around 85ppg in their last 5 and Philly only averages giving up around 82ppg @ home. With both squads coming in off a full day of rest, I expect fresh legs and lock-down, playoff-esque defense. This line has already hit 180 @ most shops after an opener of 181, with over 60% of the betting public hitting the over. The sharps like this under and so do I. Thoughts?

fitguy67 · 02-08-12, 12:02 PM

Thanks for that, absolutkaos..."I always rely on the kindness of strangers"...Blanche Dubois, "A Streetcar Named Desire"

Les_Nuts · 02-08-12, 12:31 PM

I really fancy the Knicks/Wizards under, I can still get 194 in some places, no Stoudemire and Anthony again

ram1502 · 02-08-12, 12:40 PM

Originally posted by Les_Nuts

I really fancy the Knicks/Wizards under, I can still get 194 in some places, no Stoudemire and Anthony again

I kinda lean to the over there...without ballhog, drama queen melo, the Knicks like to push the pace a little more than usual. They've scored 99 the past two games against superior teams/defenses than this wizards team. The wiz give up roughly 100ppg and an even worse 105ppg in their last 5. The knicks should put up 105+. I'm not playing either, just my 2 cents. GL sir.

Pick'nParlays · 02-08-12, 12:42 PM

4th quarter lame ducks

Originally posted by Pick'nParlays

took some props on ellis and curry over the points

also took first half tt over 51 (gsw)

after the warriors collapse in memphis.... i will sit out a full game bet. i feel they should catch okc sleeping but there 4th quarter play is atrocious.

tijoythomas · 02-08-12, 12:44 PM

Originally posted by ram1502

I'm liking the spurs/sixers under. These are two top tier teams from opposing conferences and I expect this to be a playoff type atmosphere. Each team is only giving up around 85ppg in their last 5 and Philly only averages giving up around 82ppg @ home. With both squads coming in off a full day of rest, I expect fresh legs and lock-down, playoff-esque defense. This line has already hit 180 @ most shops after an opener of 181, with over 60% of the betting public hitting the over. The sharps like this under and so do I. Thoughts?

Catchn_Picks · 02-08-12, 01:22 PM

Originally posted by ram1502

I'm liking the spurs/sixers under. These are two top tier teams from opposing conferences and I expect this to be a playoff type atmosphere. Each team is only giving up around 85ppg in their last 5 and Philly only averages giving up around 82ppg @ home. With both squads coming in off a full day of rest, I expect fresh legs and lock-down, playoff-esque defense. This line has already hit 180 @ most shops after an opener of 181, with over 60% of the betting public hitting the over. The sharps like this under and so do I. Thoughts?

I do a cross analysis of offense v. defense on both sides. I agree with all the above on SA O v. Phil D, the Phil O v. SA d seems to scream over.

All of the other comments on playoff like atmosphere I do agree with.

Catchn_Picks · 02-08-12, 01:24 PM

I am showing a double strong under analysis with AT/Ind...but the sharps are pounding it over today so far. Unusual?

JM92 · 02-08-12, 01:27 PM

I expect the Sixers to easily reach the 100 mark tonight to be honest... Would it come as a surprise to anyone if the Spurs tried to outrun the Sixers at least in the get go and outscore them with some treys? Not to me it wouldn't, and the Sixers are clearly the better HC team right now, nevermind Parker hitting for 40 again. With that said, I can see a shootout going on at least for a half or so. This can easily go over in my opinion, gonna wait and see if I can get a better number later on. only 10 minutes on the computer now so I couldn't really cap it that well anyway.

Tatsu · 02-08-12, 01:31 PM

Hey LTA, any thoughts on the Atl/Ind game tonight, I'm taking the family into town tonight for the game and would like to make it more interesting, for me anyway. Since i'm from the Atl area I like them tonight (might be the homer in me though) and the under 187. opened at 185 and now going up...

Redscot · 02-08-12, 01:55 PM

Originally posted by Catchn_Picks

I am showing a double strong under analysis with AT/Ind...but the sharps are pounding it over today so far. Unusual?

Yeah, the line movement has given me pause. However if you do like the under, now may be the time to grab it at 187 1/2.

ram1502 · 02-08-12, 02:10 PM

Originally posted by Tatsu

Hey LTA, any thoughts on the Atl/Ind game tonight, I'm taking the family into town tonight for the game and would like to make it more interesting, for me anyway. Since i'm from the Atl area I like them tonight (might be the homer in me though) and the under 187. opened at 185 and now going up...

Where do you live in Atlanta? I live in acworth.

Tatsu · 02-08-12, 02:37 PM

Dacula

Redscot · 02-08-12, 03:04 PM

Originally posted by Redscot

Yeah, the line movement has given me pause. However if you do like the under, now may be the time to grab it at 187 1/2.

WoW! This one has skyrocketed up to 188 1/2 now.

TC Woods · 02-08-12, 03:12 PM

Originally posted by Redscot

WoW! This one has skyrocketed up to 188 1/2 now.

After I grabbed it at 187 1/2

Redscot · 02-08-12, 03:47 PM

Originally posted by TC Woods

After I grabbed it at 187 1/2

Doh! I have huge concerns about this under, after initially liking it TC. The way the line has moved all day has raised a red flag, just when I thought it hit it's apex it goes a full point higher

. I hope it hits

for you man.

JM92 · 02-08-12, 03:48 PM

Last night the same happened at the Warriors and Over. Although before in Denver it went under on the same situation. Don't know what to make of it.

Gamble32jn · 02-08-12, 03:50 PM

Originally posted by rjohnso4

I'm really liking Bulls -9 and Heat -4. Two great teams playing two below average teams screams cover to me. What do you all think?

<table height="231" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="735"><tbody><tr class="Sport_data"><td class="Sport_data" width="100%"><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr class="Sport_data"><td class="Sport_data" width="100%">Chicago is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games </td></tr><tr class="Sport_data"><td class="Sport_data" width="100%">Chicago is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road</td></tr><tr class="Sport_data"><td class="Sport_data" width="100%">Chicago is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing New Orleans</td></tr><tr class="Sport_data"><td class="Sport_data" width="100%">Chicago is 6-13 SU in its last 19 games when playing on the road against New Orleans</td></tr><tr class="Sport_data"><td class="Sport_data" width="100%">Chicago is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against New Orleans

<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr class="Sport_data"><td class="Sport_data" width="100%">Miami is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games </td></tr><tr class="Sport_data"><td class="Sport_data" width="100%">Miami is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games </td></tr><tr class="Sport_data"><td class="Sport_data" width="100%">Miami is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games on the road</td></tr><tr class="Sport_data"><td class="Sport_data" width="100%">Miami is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road</td></tr><tr class="Sport_data"><td class="Sport_data" width="100%">Miami is 5-16 SU in its last 21 games when playing Orlando</td></tr><tr class="Sport_data"><td class="Sport_data" width="100%">Miami is 6-14-1 ATS in its last 21 games when playing Orlando</td></tr><tr class="Sport_data"><td class="Sport_data" width="100%">Miami is 2-8 SU in its last 10 games when playing on the road against Orlando</td></tr><tr class="Sport_data"><td class="Sport_data" width="100%">Miami is 2-7-1 ATS in its last 10 games when playing on the road against Orlando

Bulls yea...Heat idk....I always like the bulls to cover. Wouldnt be surprised to see the bulls win by 20+ points
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Donnie Brasco · 02-08-12, 04:21 PM

Bulls/hornets under??? Is rose playing

Redscot · 02-08-12, 04:24 PM

Originally posted by Donnie Brasco

Bulls/hornets under??? Is rose playing

Latest I hear Game Time decision. They need to let him get healthy imo. He's the type of player you have to sit....you leave it up to him he'll run himself ragged with his competitive spirit.

jas19illini · 02-08-12, 04:30 PM

Sports insights has Rose as probable.

Love The Action · 02-08-12, 04:32 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

As you said, they played at a 97 PACE, but still went under the 183 total set for that game because of unusually poor shooting. Consequently, the oddsmakers should have adjusted the total downwards for those game. However, this game opened at 184.5 and got hit by immediate over money. Hmmm...

That is what I said earlier on the hawks/indy total. I like the over, but have been crazy busy at work today. I am going to wait and see where it goes.

BigBoi · 02-08-12, 04:48 PM

What you leaning LTA?

loungee · 02-08-12, 04:50 PM

According to ESPN1000 Chicago, Rose and Thibs have both come out and said Rose will play, despite being listed as game-time decision, for everyone who was asking.

Speedy88 · 02-08-12, 06:02 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

That is what I said earlier on the hawks/indy total. I like the over, but have been crazy busy at work today. I am going to wait and see where it goes.

Just curious, what do you do for work?

Love The Action · 02-08-12, 06:45 PM

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 2/8/2012

Play #1

Sixers (-3)(-120) 1x (Locked)

Hater alert...he's buying the hook! Whatever....my money. Philly has a significant advantage tonight with its top tier perimeter defense against an offense that depends on its perimeter game. Philly is without hawes but I believe brand is back which should help their inside game. No time for a full writeup, but I have philly set at -4.5 tonight and I like them a lot more without that half point. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the sixers for 1x. Good luck.

absolutkaos · 02-08-12, 06:52 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 2/8/2012

Play #1

Sixers (-3)(-120) 1x (Locked)

Hater alert...he's buying the hook! Whatever....my money.

GL tonight!