LTA's NBA Plays for Round 2, Conf. Finals & Championship

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  • gtboy
    SBR Wise Guy
    • 06-15-10
    • 810

    #2696
    did any1 played tex o9. was looking easy but the game looks dead.
    Comment
    • MrXYZ
      SBR MVP
      • 02-18-11
      • 2342

      #2697
      Hey LTA, I thought you would've given the Dodgers/Angels under another shot. I risked way too many units on it but it cashed & rescued my MLB weekend. Seriously considering giving bases a break though, it's grinding me out. I tip my hat to guys like you who can do it so consistently.

      Tough day, but it'll turn for the better soon. Good luck with your plays tomorrow.
      Comment
      • FJ_islander
        SBR MVP
        • 11-03-10
        • 1054

        #2698
        Looking forward to todays plays LTA. IN you we trust. WIn or loss. All the best.
        Comment
        • Redscot
          SBR MVP
          • 05-16-11
          • 2571

          #2699
          Happy 4th all! Bol today. Keep up the good work LTA, I feel a good week coming.
          Comment
          • JR007
            SBR Hall of Famer
            • 02-21-10
            • 5279

            #2700
            Happy Holidays everyone....the right play does not always win

            Tigers might be worth a look..10 days without a day off plus jet-lag
            Comment
            • Love The Action
              SBR Posting Legend
              • 11-08-10
              • 10952

              #2701
              Originally posted by alamo
              The under was in trouble from the get go. Way too many Homers and hits in this game when trying to protect a small total.
              Expensive day.
              I disagree - the under tanked because of one bad inning when the a's scored five off kennedy in the sixth inning. There was no score through the first three innings and every inning saw no runs except the fourth, sixth and eighth. Take away that 5 run inning - which I bet was the a's highest of the year, and we cash that under easy. It seems like you only post negative stuff on losing days...what's up with that. No worries though...we will be back in the black by tonight....
              Comment
              • alamo
                SBR Hall of Famer
                • 02-21-09
                • 7131

                #2702
                Originally posted by Love The Action
                I disagree - the under tanked because of one bad inning when the a's scored five off kennedy in the sixth inning. There was no score through the first three innings and every inning saw no runs except the fourth, sixth and eighth. Take away that 5 run inning - which I bet was the a's highest of the year, and we cash that under easy. It seems like you only post negative stuff on losing days...what's up with that. No worries though...we will be back in the black by tonight....
                Was just a little disappointed from the loss. Had raised my units 2days ago which was unfortunate timing. I'll keep the faith and wont post unless its positive
                Comment
                • Love The Action
                  SBR Posting Legend
                  • 11-08-10
                  • 10952

                  #2703
                  Originally posted by MrXYZ
                  Hey LTA, I thought you would've given the Dodgers/Angels under another shot. I risked way too many units on it but it cashed & rescued my MLB weekend. Seriously considering giving bases a break though, it's grinding me out. I tip my hat to guys like you who can do it so consistently.

                  Tough day, but it'll turn for the better soon. Good luck with your plays tomorrow.
                  No, I was drunk at a BBQ and didn't want to chase. You have to keep disciplined even when drinking

                  I actually leaned under, but both Santana and Billingsley have been untrustworthy towards the under this year. I just sat it out...nice hit though!

                  Baseball is a grind bud, it's a seven month, over 162 games, grind. More than any other sport, you can't get too high or too low. You are going to have days like yesterday and the day before when the house wins. There's nothing you can do but stick to what works for you. What you try to do is be profitable every week and every month. If you do that, you will be plus units after the World Series and that's all that counts. Just stick with it and you'll be fine. We won over 35 units in the last ten days preceding Thursday. Since Thursday, we have given about 15x back. That still leaves us up over 20x in the last 15 days. If can win 20x every 15 days, we'll be just fine. Remember long term is key....good luck bud!
                  Comment
                  • Love The Action
                    SBR Posting Legend
                    • 11-08-10
                    • 10952

                    #2704
                    Originally posted by FJ_islander
                    Looking forward to todays plays LTA. IN you we trust. WIn or loss. All the best.
                    Thanks bud...no worries, we'll be just fine. Like I said to Mr.XYZ, baseball is grind...you're going to have bad days. We'll have a big bounceback day today!
                    Comment
                    • Love The Action
                      SBR Posting Legend
                      • 11-08-10
                      • 10952

                      #2705
                      Originally posted by Redscot
                      Happy 4th all! Bol today. Keep up the good work LTA, I feel a good week coming.
                      Comment
                      • Love The Action
                        SBR Posting Legend
                        • 11-08-10
                        • 10952

                        #2706
                        Originally posted by JR007
                        Happy Holidays everyone....the right play does not always win

                        Tigers might be worth a look..10 days without a day off plus jet-lag

                        Have a great Independence Day!!!
                        Comment
                        • Love The Action
                          SBR Posting Legend
                          • 11-08-10
                          • 10952

                          #2707
                          Originally posted by alamo
                          Was just a little disappointed from the loss. Had raised my units 2days ago which was unfortunate timing. I'll keep the faith and wont post unless its positive
                          I feel your pain. No worries, we'll get those units back and then some. Baseball is a grind and unfortunately, we can't win them all. But we can sure as hell try, starting with today!
                          Comment
                          • Love The Action
                            SBR Posting Legend
                            • 11-08-10
                            • 10952

                            #2708
                            Alright guys. We had our worst week in a long time with just our second losing week over the last two months. We won over 35x in the last ten days preceding Thursday and gave 15x back since then. We are up over 20x in the last 15 days and will add to that today. I do not forsee any big plays (over 5x), but I do see at least three or four nice looking plays which we may stake up to 5x on each. Time to cap the early games and get the Independence Day profit party started. No more talking about yesterday's losses -- it's all profit from here on out!!!!!

                            Comment
                            • Love The Action
                              SBR Posting Legend
                              • 11-08-10
                              • 10952

                              #2709
                              MLB 7/4/11

                              Astros/Pirates under (7.5) 3.5x (Locked)

                              Maholm, the under machine versus my-man Myers equates to a nice public fade under play. We have 60%+ of the public on the over in this game and I really like the under here. Even though they have hit better lately, the Pirates are one of the best under bets out there. On the other side, Myers has been lights out on his last three starts and I expect the same today. Jim Wolf is the ump today and we all know he is historically a big under ump. I'm rolling with the under here for 3.5x...good luck!

                              Reds/Cardinals under (7)(+100) 5x (Locked)

                              The vet Carpenter versus the youngster Cueto, in what should be playoff-like atmosphere in St. Louis. There is bad blood between these two teams and I expect both pitchers to be pumped and prepared. Neither team is hitting there best right now and, even though I wanted to wait until the ump was released to make this play, I figured I would jump on the plus odds while I could. The line has already come down from 7.5 and I think this one stay under 5, so I would rather get the plus odds at 7 than pay the juice at 7.5 (-120). Good luck!

                              More plays to come...
                              Comment
                              • Love The Action
                                SBR Posting Legend
                                • 11-08-10
                                • 10952

                                #2710
                                Originally posted by Love The Action
                                MLB 7/4/11

                                Astros/Pirates under (7.5) 3.5x (Locked)

                                Reds/Cardinals under (7)(+100) 5x (Locked)
                                Padres/Giants under (6.5)(-115) 2x (Locked)

                                This line opened at 6.5 and dropped down to 6. One of my locals has 6.5 (-115) so I decided to jump on the 6.5 at a reasonable price considering current market conditions. Lincecum has dominated in his last two starts and Richard has been great in two of his last three. The Giants' .300 average against lefties in their last ten starts doesn't really count because they only faced one lefty in the Cubs' Doug Davis...come on...I think we see a 3-2 or 3-1 type game today so I'm rolling with the under for 2x. Good luck!
                                Comment
                                • Krazymojo
                                  SBR Sharp
                                  • 12-01-10
                                  • 444

                                  #2711
                                  damn my line dropped to 6 on the Giants game got it at even tho
                                  Comment
                                  • Krazymojo
                                    SBR Sharp
                                    • 12-01-10
                                    • 444

                                    #2712
                                    The Gambling Gods will be with us today!
                                    Comment
                                    • TrafalgarLaw
                                      SBR High Roller
                                      • 03-07-11
                                      • 134

                                      #2713
                                      Best pick UN in Cardinals game!
                                      I play all 3 your picks and Boston -1, Seatеду -1, Det\Laa over.
                                      GL!
                                      Comment
                                      • JR007
                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                        • 02-21-10
                                        • 5279

                                        #2714
                                        according to the covers database under 6.5 and under 10.5 are profitable
                                        Comment
                                        • Love The Action
                                          SBR Posting Legend
                                          • 11-08-10
                                          • 10952

                                          #2715
                                          Originally posted by Love The Action
                                          MLB 7/4/11

                                          Astros/Pirates under (7.5) 3.5x (Locked)

                                          Reds/Cardinals under (7)(+100) 5x (Locked)

                                          Padres/Giants under (6.5)(-115) 2x (Locked)
                                          TB/Minny under (7.5) 1x (Locked)

                                          Bit of a gut play here, but I think both Price and Duensing get it done today. Both teams are hitting lefties great right now, but Minny has not faced the quality of Price. On the other side, Duensing has had success against TB, beating them earlier in the year and going 7 innings with only 2 earned runs. The ump has a favorable under record, if not the best strike percentage. We'll play this one for 1x based on Price coming out strong on Independence Day for the big win. Good luck!
                                          Comment
                                          • ManBearPig
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 12-04-08
                                            • 2473

                                            #2716
                                            Originally posted by Love The Action
                                            Reds/Cardinals under (7)(+100) 5x (Locked) The line has already come down from 7.5 and I think this one stay under 5, so I would rather get the plus odds at 7 than pay the juice at 7.5 (-120). Good luck! More plays to come...
                                            I've noticed that lines that come down from 7.5 to 7 have usually fallen under...this is just a blind-eye trend so I don't have stats but it's just an observation I've had. It seems that 7.5 is a key number when betting totals because on the contrary I've seen lots of games that have gone off 7.5 to 8 go over. Once again no stats but just an observation.
                                            Comment
                                            • Love The Action
                                              SBR Posting Legend
                                              • 11-08-10
                                              • 10952

                                              #2717
                                              We may have from 2 - 4 more plays, with one or two having signficant units at stake...good luck today everyone!
                                              Comment
                                              • Love The Action
                                                SBR Posting Legend
                                                • 11-08-10
                                                • 10952

                                                #2718
                                                Originally posted by ManBearPig
                                                I've noticed that lines that come down from 7.5 to 7 have usually fallen under...this is just a blind-eye trend so I don't have stats but it's just an observation I've had. It seems that 7.5 is a key number when betting totals because on the contrary I've seen lots of games that have gone off 7.5 to 8 go over. Once again no stats but just an observation.
                                                You are correct. The key numbers for baseball unders are 5, 7, 9 and 11. If you see the number go from 5.5 to 5 or lower, 7.5 to 7 or lower, 9.5 to 9 or lower and 11.5 to 11 or lower, a play on the under must start to look intriguing. Plus, you can usually get plus odds if you jump on the lower number. As you know, price is one of the most important factors in baseball betting and you have get the best price wherever possible. The question is if the 7.5 (-120) is a better value than the 7 (+105) and for me, the answer always depends on if you think there is a good chance the under hits at 7. In one case you don't profit because of the push and in the other you cash a winner...
                                                Comment
                                                • Love The Action
                                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                                  • 11-08-10
                                                  • 10952

                                                  #2719
                                                  Looks like Maholm just might not have it today against a hot hitting Astros lineup...we'll see. He's going to need to limit the damage to 3 for the rest of the game.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • philipsthundergo
                                                    Restricted User
                                                    • 05-19-11
                                                    • 43

                                                    #2720
                                                    Good luck for the next plays everybody.,
                                                    Comment
                                                    • Love The Action
                                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                                      • 11-08-10
                                                      • 10952

                                                      #2721
                                                      Originally posted by Love The Action
                                                      MLB 7/4/11

                                                      Astros/Pirates under (7.5) 3.5x (Locked)

                                                      Reds/Cardinals under (7)(+100) 5x (Locked)

                                                      Padres/Giants under (6.5)(-115) 2x (Locked)

                                                      TB/Minny under (7.5) 1x (Locked)
                                                      Added 1x for total of 6x Reds/Cardinals under (7)(+100) (Locked)

                                                      Arizona/Milwaukee under (7)(+100) 6x (Locked)

                                                      Trying to feed the baby and type at the same time, so I will keep this brief. Marcum desperately needs to return to early season form against an AZ team that has hit around .200 against righties in the last ten games. The ump has a strike percentage of 63.5% which is on the high end of he spectrum and both teams are generally solid under bets. The line dropped from 7.5 to 7 with Pinny and Greek both juicing the 7.5 under over -130 at times. This shows they were very reluctant to go down to 7 because they fear the under. We're bumping the Reds/Cards under to 6x and we're making this our second 6x play of the day. As I said, we are going to be aggressive from this point forward in MLB. I always turn it up after the 4th of July so in the immortal words of the recent Bud Light commercials, "HERE WE GO!" Good luck!

                                                      A couple more plays to come...
                                                      Comment
                                                      • Love The Action
                                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                                        • 11-08-10
                                                        • 10952

                                                        #2722
                                                        I think it may be wise to increase the AZ/Mil and Reds/Cards unders above 6x if we continue to see the books drop the total. Regardless of the public pounding the Cards under, the books would not drop from 7.5 and then juice the under at 7 like they are starting to do unless both the sharps and the public were on the under.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • Love The Action
                                                          SBR Posting Legend
                                                          • 11-08-10
                                                          • 10952

                                                          #2723
                                                          Looks like we're going to need a lot of luck in the Astros/Pirates under...currently 4-3 Pirates winning in bottom of the 6th. We need the score to say exactly the same for these final three innings. We need some luck guys...
                                                          Comment
                                                          • Love The Action
                                                            SBR Posting Legend
                                                            • 11-08-10
                                                            • 10952

                                                            #2724
                                                            Originally posted by Love The Action
                                                            MLB 7/4/11

                                                            Astros/Pirates under (7.5) 3.5x (Locked)

                                                            Reds/Cardinals under (7)(+100) 6x (Locked)

                                                            Padres/Giants under (6.5)(-115) 2x (Locked)

                                                            TB/Minny under (7.5) 1x (Locked)


                                                            Arizona/Milwaukee under (7)(+100) 6x (Locked)
                                                            Added 1x for total of 7x Arizona/Milwaukee under (7)(Locked)

                                                            Pinny went from an open of 7.5 under (+100) to 7 under (-110) with the over given away at plus odds. I'm making this addition of 1x based on some solid line movement supporting the under here. Good luck!
                                                            Comment
                                                            • Love The Action
                                                              SBR Posting Legend
                                                              • 11-08-10
                                                              • 10952

                                                              #2725
                                                              Originally posted by Love The Action
                                                              MLB 7/4/11

                                                              Astros/Pirates under (7.5) 3.5x (Locked)

                                                              Reds/Cardinals under (7)(+100) 6x (Locked)

                                                              Padres/Giants under (6.5)(-115) 2x (Locked)

                                                              TB/Minny under (7.5) 1x (Locked)


                                                              Arizona/Milwaukee under (7)(+100) 7x (Locked)
                                                              Added 2x for total of 4x Padres/Giants under (2x under (6.5)(-115) 1x under (6)(+100) (Locked)

                                                              I like the Richard/Lincecum matchup so let's add 2x after finding out the umpire is Tim Timmons who has a 62.5 strike percentage and has umped to 3 overs and 12 unders on the season. Good luck!

                                                              Rockies/Braves under (6.5)(+100) 4x (Locked)

                                                              I was waiting all day to get 7 as the total after waking up too late and missing the line move. However, 7 never materialized and some outlets started juicing the under at 6.5 so I didn't want to miss out on plus odds at 6.5. Jimenez has had his struggles, but mainly at home. He has absolutely dominated on the road the entire year, but especially recently. On the other side, Hanson has rivaled Jurjjens for ace of that Braves staff but has done it for the last two years as well. I like Hanson to shut down the the Rockies today and Jimenez to lime the Braves as well. The ump has not been released and probably won't be until about 6pm (EST). Stay tuned..if we get a nice under friendly under, this could be a 5x play. Good luck!
                                                              Comment
                                                              • Love The Action
                                                                SBR Posting Legend
                                                                • 11-08-10
                                                                • 10952

                                                                #2726
                                                                Originally posted by Love The Action

                                                                MLB 7/4/11

                                                                Astros/Pirates under (7.5) 3.5x (Locked) LOSS

                                                                Reds/Cardinals under (7)(+100) 6x (Locked)

                                                                Padres/Giants under (6.5)(-115) 4x (2x under (6.5)(-115) 2x under (6) (+100)(Locked)

                                                                TB/Minny under (7.5) 1x (Locked)
                                                                WINNER

                                                                Arizona/Milwaukee under (7)(+100) 7x (Locked)


                                                                Rockies/Braves under (6.5)(+100) 4x (Locked)
                                                                Here is the card so far. We go 1-1 on the early games but are down because the Astros under missed by the damn hook. Nothing pisses me off more than losing 7.5 unders to the classic 5-3 score. But we have a big card today and need this Arizona under. Stay tuned, grab a beer and enjoy!
                                                                Comment
                                                                • JR007
                                                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                  • 02-21-10
                                                                  • 5279

                                                                  #2727
                                                                  a bit concerned about regression to the mean regarding overs recently.....just a glancing observation but I have seen slightly less low totals lately....as teams drift out of contention and , schedule fatigue sets in as well as the trading deadline.....you may see more overs

                                                                  after the all-star break
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • freshguy222
                                                                    SBR Sharp
                                                                    • 12-13-10
                                                                    • 421

                                                                    #2728
                                                                    7x under already toast!unbelievable a grand slam with two outs two strikes
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • Love The Action
                                                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                                                      • 11-08-10
                                                                      • 10952

                                                                      #2729


                                                                      Shaun Marcum the fvcking pitcher just hit a grand slam against Hudson to f\*\*k the under on an 0-2 count. WTF that pisses me off. Lincecum gives up 2 in the first to the Padres. Yeah, JR, I'm a a bit worried about the overs at this point too. However, even though there is a 30 day lean to the unders at 53%, on the year the over has hit at a slightly higher rate. Nothing you can do when the pitcher hits a grand slam on an 0 -2 count!
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • Love The Action
                                                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                                                        • 11-08-10
                                                                        • 10952

                                                                        #2730
                                                                        Originally posted by Love The Action
                                                                        MLB 7/4/11

                                                                        Astros/Pirates under (7.5) 3.5x (Locked) LOSS

                                                                        Reds/Cardinals under (7)(+100) 6x (Locked)

                                                                        Padres/Giants under (6.5)(-115) 4x (2x under (6.5)(-115) 2x under (6) (+100)(Locked)

                                                                        TB/Minny under (7.5) 1x (Locked)
                                                                        WINNER

                                                                        Arizona/Milwaukee under (7)(+100) 7x (Locked)
                                                                        LOSS

                                                                        Rockies/Braves under (6.5)(+100) 4x (Locked)

                                                                        Adding 2x for total of 8x Reds/Cards under (7)(+100) (Locked)

                                                                        This is the play of the day with Cueto and Carpenter. These teams hate each other and these types of games lend themselves to the under. Pinny has started juicing the under and giving away the over at plus odds so we have a lot of sharp and public money on this one. We took a bad beat when the picher hits a grand slam on an 0-2 count in the AZ/Mil game, let's just say the gambling gods owe us this one. Let's get this one. Good luck!
                                                                        Comment
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