LTA's NBA Plays for Round 2, Conf. Finals & Championship

[Love The Action]

Thanks guys...but no need to respond to the trolls like Charger. I said my peace and pointed out the facts. I don't hide from the fact I have had a bad week in MLB, but the fact is that we are even money in MLB and up well over 35x in the NBA in this thread alone. I am only trying to help with my thread and analysis and I don't recommend that anyone blindly tail. Just use my thread as a reference for your own plays.

Charger is just an antagonist looking for attention. I will not be responding to him any further and you need not either.

Now, onto today's games. We cashed that Twins/Tigers over and our other games are tied.

I am heading out for a BBQ, but will post my upcoming MLB plays via phone. I will also try to get my writeup on tomorrow's NBA game posted before I go to bed. I am very confident in that play on the over. Good luck today!

[petermans23]

chargers4222,

Why are you jealous of LTA? Because people here like his write up?

Give me a break!

[reppin_the_847]

I'm a huge fan of your NBA writeups. Just wanted to verify if Miami Heat vs. Dallas Mavericks Game 1 (OVER) is your official pick. The books I usually use have the Over / Under point total currently set at 187. Thanks man, and BOL!

[Love The Action]

I'm a huge fan of your NBA writeups. Just wanted to verify if Miami Heat vs. Dallas Mavericks Game 1 (OVER) is your official pick. The books I usually use have the Over / Under point total currently set at 187. Thanks man, and BOL!

That is correct. I am playing the over at 186 for 10x, but may add a unit or two once the ref assignments come out and would be comfortable taking it at 187. Writeup to come. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

Mlb 5/30/11

Lets go....we're having a great fuking memorial day and have started 4-0. This is the breakout mlb day I have been taking about and lets keep it going. Here's what we have for tonight.

Adding 1x to Brewers/Cards over (9) for total of 3x
Pirates ml (+ 105) 0.50x
Pirates/Mets under (7.5) 0.50x

Good luck! Lets get these plays for a 7-0 day!

[alamo]

Brewers useless

[Love The Action]

Brewers useless

They just scored three runs after you posted this

Perfect...all we need is two more runs to ensure us a 6x night.

If we can get a 4-3 pirates win too, we would have 7x night. I had a few drinks at the bbq, so I'm really enjoying todays run. Lets just cash this reds over and all will be well. Good luck. Be home soon and will post the nba writeup...

[alamo]

They mustve seen my post on SBR so had to respond.

[Love The Action]

They mustve seen my post on SBR so had to respond.

Yep...two more runs now in three innings...let's go! Great reverse jinx...you might have to do it again...

[Love The Action]

MLB 5/30/11

Brewers/Milwaukee over (9) (-105) 3x (Locked) WINNER
Twins/Tigers over (8.5) (-115) 2x (Locked) WINNER
Astros ML (+125) 0.50x (Locked) WINNER
Cardinals/Giants over (7.5) (-115) 0.50x (Locked) WINNER
Padres ML (+165) 1x (Locked) WINNER
Pirates ML (+105) 0.50x (Locked) Pending
Pirates/Mets under (7.5) 0.50x Locked) LOSS

Boo-yeah...finally we have a break-through day in MLB as we cash the 3x winner in Brewers/Reds over. 5-1, +7.25x with the Pirate ML pending. If the Pirates can somehow win, we will have a 6-1 day and be up +7.75x. This is just what we needed. And on the same day that dumb ass troll Charger tried to lie and attack us. What freeking stroke attention whore loser. Where is he now

[jacer333]

Great little run lately in the MLB! Looking forward to the NBA finals and more MLB winners

[Love The Action]

NBA 5/31/11

Mavs/Heat over (186) (-120) 10x (locked)

Wow, total opened at 188 just as I predicted above and immediately started falling all the way to 186.5. Early money definitely on the under here, but that does not concern me where we have a strong trend backing this play and the days off will help push the pace.

I must admit that I don't even have the series capped yet, but I know buying the hook and getting 186 on the over will be the best value we will see as many books are already going back up to 187.

I am going to be aggressive here and play this for 10x because I like the 186 number and trust both teams will come out firing for this first game just like they did in opening games if their previous series. Defense and unders will come later in the series, but I like offense to get the party started. Writeup on series and first game to come this weekend. Good luck.

I am rolling with the over in game 1 of the Mavs/Heat NBA championship series. This total opened up at 188 and dropped pretty quickly to 186.5. I jumped on the over at that point and bought the hook down to 186 because I knew the total had bottomed out and would not get any lower. Sure enough, as soon as we made that move, the books began moving back up to 187. Consequently, we find ourselves with huge value at 186.

I have this game capped at 190, so the value at 186 cannot be denied. Plus, according to an article I read, most of the money on the under so far at the MGM is public money. Well, we know better and are pounding the over for 10x. If the ref assignment prove favorable, we may add 1-3x.

I just don't see how this game goes under. Everything points to the over here:

• First, we have the opening game over trend which is cashing at over 80% on the playoffs as a whole but you don't hear much about it. That's good for us but bad for the public. This trend has been money from the start of the first round as teams start like to kick off their series with some scoring and these two teams have been no different. Except for the first game against Philly where they missed the over by 4 points, the Heat have sailed over the posted total in the openers against Boston and Chicago. This is the same for the Mavs. They missed cashing against the slow Blazers, but easily cashed the opening games against the Lakers and Thunder. This opening game over trend has been money all playoffs and I fully plan on cashing on it in this first game between the Mavs and Heat.
• I don't put really any stock in the two regular season games between these two teams because Caron Butler is no longer playing, but both games sailed over the posted total. In those two games, they scored 194 and 201 points respectively. I expect the same type of scores on Tuesday night.
• Against playoff-caliber teams, the Mavs were 31-19 in favor of the over this year. That tells me that Dallas' depth and offensive efficiency is good enough to overcome tough defenses. On the other end, the Heat hit 23 overs against 20 unders while playing top flight teams. The Heat can score as has been evidenced all season, especially in transition, and we only need 187 points between these two teams. I think that total should not be a problem. You hear some people say the rest will hurt the scoring, however, I disagree.
• On 3 days of rest or more, the Mavs went 5-3 in favor of the over and averaged over 203 points while the Heat went 6-5 in favor of the over and averaged over 193 points. I see that continuing Tuesday.
• The individual matchups point to the over in this first game before defensive adjustments can be made. Let's face it, without Caron Butler, the Mavs don't have anyone that can guard Lebron. Likewise, there is no one on the Heat that can guard Dirk. I think both these guys have huge series. However, a lot of the role players will play a big part in this first game over. Wade and Bosh will get their 16-23 points, but we will also need Haslem and Miller to hit their shots off the bench. On the Mavs side, I think Terry and Stojakovic should hit their shots because of all the attention the Heat will pay to Dirk. We will also need some points out of Jason Kidd and I think he comes through for us.
• Every possible trend points to the over for both teams.
• For the Mavs:
• Over is 5-1 in Mavericks last 6 games following a S.U. win.
• Over is 4-1 in Mavericks last 5 games playing on 3 or more days rest.
• Over is 4-1 in Mavericks last 5 Tuesday games.
• Over is 4-1 in Mavericks last 5 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
• Over is 6-2 in Mavericks last 8 vs. NBA Southeast.
• Over is 9-3 in Mavericks last 12 games as a road underdog.
• Over is 5-2 in Mavericks last 7 overall.
• Over is 5-2 in Mavericks last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
• Over is 12-5-1 in Mavericks last 18 games following a ATS loss.
• Over is 9-4 in Mavericks last 13 games as an underdog.
• For the Heat:
• Over is 6-0 in Heat last 6 games as a home favorite.
• Over is 5-0 in Heat last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
• Over is 6-0 in Heat last 6 home games.
• Over is 7-0 in Heat last 7 playoff games as a favorite.
• Over is 7-0 in Heat last 7 games as a favorite.
• Over is 5-0 in Heat last 5 playoff games as a favorite of 0.5-4.5.
• Over is 4-0 in Heat last 4 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
• Over is 6-1 in Heat last 7 Tuesday games.
• Over is 5-1 in Heat last 6 vs. NBA Southwest.
• Over is 4-1 in Heat last 5 games following a S.U. win.
• Over is 4-1 in Heat last 5 games following a ATS win.
• Over is 8-3 in Heat last 11 overall.
• Over is 5-2 in Heat last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.

Both teams should be raring to run this first game. Based on the regular season matchups, which at least give us a good idea with respect to pace, I expect to see over 160 fg attempts with anywhere from 30-45 three point attempts. As long as we get decent shooting from both teams at around 45% and they hit about 30-35% of their three pointers, we should have no problem cashing this over because we know the refs are going to call a ton of fouls for the Heat. In the Chicago series, the Heat easily had 25-30 free throw attempts in each game. I expect, however, that the Mavs also get at least 25, so I really expect over 50 combined free throw attempts in this first game which should definitely help us with the over.

Based on all of the above factors, I have no doubt we see the over cash on Tuesday night. The only question is how many units we are going to put at stake. We currently are playing 10x at over 186. I suggest we may add 2 or 3x at 187 if we can get some ref assignments that favor the over. I will provide you guys with the ref assignment analysis and line movement updates tomorrow. Good luck! Let's start this series off right!

[Love The Action]

MLB 5/30/11

Brewers/Milwaukee over (9) (-105) 3x (Locked) WINNER
Twins/Tigers over (8.5) (-115) 2x (Locked) WINNER
Astros ML (+125) 0.50x (Locked) WINNER
Cardinals/Giants over (7.5) (-115) 0.50x (Locked) WINNER
Padres ML (+165) 1x (Locked) WINNER
Pirates ML (+105) 0.50x (Locked) LOSS
Pirates/Mets under (7.5) 0.50x Locked) LOSS

MLB Recap 5/30/11

5 - 2 = +6.72x

In this thread:

79 - 78 = +6.38x

We get back on track in MLB after a horrible week last week in which we dropped a little over 10x. However, we start this new week off on track perfectly with over 6x in profit. We are now back up over 20x on the whole MLB season and we will keep the hot streak going tomorrow so we can get the MLB units for this thread back above 10x. Good luck! Let's kill the books again tomorrow!

NBA Update:

I just wanted to remind everyone of our record entering into Tuesday's 10x play on the over.

In this thread:

20 - 15 = +38.5x

(Series bets 0 - 1 = -5x)

Good luck tomorrow! Let's cash our over and get these total NBA units above 48x for this thread. We are way over 65x for the playoffs between this thread and my first round threads, so let's stay hot and keep the profit coming!

[HKT]

I am rolling with the over in game 1 of the Mavs/Heat NBA championship series. This total opened up at 188 and dropped pretty quickly to 186.5. I jumped on the over at that point and bought the hook down to 186 because I knew the total had bottomed out and would not get any lower. Sure enough, as soon as we made that move, the books began moving back up to 187. Consequently, we find ourselves with huge value at 186.

I have this game capped at 190, so the value at 186 cannot be denied. Plus, according to an article I read, most of the money on the under so far at the MGM is public money. Well, we know better and are pounding the over for 10x. If the ref assignment prove favorable, we may add 1-3x.

I just don't see how this game goes under. Everything points to the over here:

• First, we have the opening game over trend which is cashing at over 80% on the playoffs as a whole but you don't hear much about it. That's good for us but bad for the public. This trend has been money from the start of the first round as teams start like to kick off their series with some scoring and these two teams have been no different. Except for the first game against Philly where they missed the over by 4 points, the Heat have sailed over the posted total in the openers against Boston and Chicago. This is the same for the Mavs. They missed cashing against the slow Blazers, but easily cashed the opening games against the Lakers and Thunder. This opening game over trend has been money all playoffs and I fully plan on cashing on it in this first game between the Mavs and Heat.
• I don't put really any stock in the two regular season games between these two teams because Caron Butler is no longer playing, but both games sailed over the posted total. In those two games, they scored 194 and 201 points respectively. I expect the same type of scores on Tuesday night.
• Against playoff-caliber teams, the Mavs were 31-19 in favor of the over this year. That tells me that Dallas' depth and offensive efficiency is good enough to overcome tough defenses. On the other end, the Heat hit 23 overs against 20 unders while playing top flight teams. The Heat can score as has been evidenced all season, especially in transition, and we only need 187 points between these two teams. I think that total should not be a problem. You hear some people say the rest will hurt the scoring, however, I disagree.
• On 3 days of rest or more, the Mavs went 5-3 in favor of the over and averaged over 203 points while the Heat went 6-5 in favor of the over and averaged over 193 points. I see that continuing Tuesday.
• The individual matchups point to the over in this first game before defensive adjustments can be made. Let's face it, without Caron Butler, the Mavs don't have anyone that can guard Lebron. Likewise, there is no one on the Heat that can guard Dirk. I think both these guys have huge series. However, a lot of the role players will play a big part in this first game over. Wade and Bosh will get their 16-23 points, but we will also need Haslem and Miller to hit their shots off the bench. On the Mavs side, I think Terry and Stojakovic should hit their shots because of all the attention the Heat will pay to Dirk. We will also need some points out of Jason Kidd and I think he comes through for us.
• Every possible trend points to the over for both teams.
• For the Mavs:
• Over is 5-1 in Mavericks last 6 games following a S.U. win.
• Over is 4-1 in Mavericks last 5 games playing on 3 or more days rest.
• Over is 4-1 in Mavericks last 5 Tuesday games.
• Over is 4-1 in Mavericks last 5 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
• Over is 6-2 in Mavericks last 8 vs. NBA Southeast.
• Over is 9-3 in Mavericks last 12 games as a road underdog.
• Over is 5-2 in Mavericks last 7 overall.
• Over is 5-2 in Mavericks last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
• Over is 12-5-1 in Mavericks last 18 games following a ATS loss.
• Over is 9-4 in Mavericks last 13 games as an underdog.
• For the Heat:
• Over is 6-0 in Heat last 6 games as a home favorite.
• Over is 5-0 in Heat last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
• Over is 6-0 in Heat last 6 home games.
• Over is 7-0 in Heat last 7 playoff games as a favorite.
• Over is 7-0 in Heat last 7 games as a favorite.
• Over is 5-0 in Heat last 5 playoff games as a favorite of 0.5-4.5.
• Over is 4-0 in Heat last 4 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
• Over is 6-1 in Heat last 7 Tuesday games.
• Over is 5-1 in Heat last 6 vs. NBA Southwest.
• Over is 4-1 in Heat last 5 games following a S.U. win.
• Over is 4-1 in Heat last 5 games following a ATS win.
• Over is 8-3 in Heat last 11 overall.
• Over is 5-2 in Heat last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.

Both teams should be raring to run this first game. Based on the regular season matchups, which at least give us a good idea with respect to pace, I expect to see over 160 fg attempts with anywhere from 30-45 three point attempts. As long as we get decent shooting from both teams at around 45% and they hit about 30-35% of their three pointers, we should have no problem cashing this over because we know the refs are going to call a ton of fouls for the Heat. In the Chicago series, the Heat easily had 25-30 free throw attempts in each game. I expect, however, that the Mavs also get at least 25, so I really expect over 50 combined free throw attempts in this first game which should definitely help us with the over.

Based on all of the above factors, I have no doubt we see the over cash on Tuesday night. The only question is how many units we are going to put at stake. We currently are playing 10x at over 186. I suggest we may add 2 or 3x at 187 if we can get some ref assignments that favor the over. I will provide you guys with the ref assignment analysis and line movement updates tomorrow. Good luck! Let's start this series off right!

Great analysis and thanks LTA.

[Krazymojo]

damn i missed a good day figures good job tho LTA

[Hawaii'sUpNcomin]

great work today LTA...lets cash tomorrow's big play...

[flush99]

great job yesterday, thank you

[Rolo1984]

just an awesome analyses as usual LTA

Tnx man going to follow you as usual

[MrXYZ]

Great work on your analysis LTA. Very thorough as usual. I'm considering taking the over as well. Have it capped at 190 with my humble methods. The only thing that could sink the play is guys getting hit with nerves and and missing easy shots.

From a fan point of view I'm really looking forward to this series, should be terrific. Good luck tonight!

[mcwmiamisc]

LTA: Any concern 81% is on the over? Seems fishy...

[Love The Action]

LTA: Any concern 81% is on the over? Seems fishy...

I never like being on the same side as the majority, but the truth of the matter is that the public cashes between 45% - 50% of the time and I think this is one of those times. The majority of nba games have public percentages that favor the over so you just have to grit your teeth and ride with the public when you like over. At the end of the day, the only thing that matters are the players fresh legs which should lead to a fast pace and their ability to hit shots early to build up a cushion for the invariable slower 2h. I think we see between 190-195 tonight. Good luck!

[migz]

Refs for tonight's game - M. Callahan S. Javie B. Kennedy

[Love The Action]

Refs for tonight's game - M. Callahan S. Javie B. Kennedy

No help from the refs. Callahan is the only one of the three that has an over lean. However, with the superstar effect in this series so strong, we should still see at least 50 ft attempts tonight. I probably won't add units and will keep this at a 10x play but you never know so lets wait and see where the line movement takes us. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

Line moving up as all major books have moved to 187.5 and continue to juice the over. Very good signs that this is not only public money moving these lines....

[Affirmed3]

Good luck tonight on the over.

[jacer333]

Let's get it LTA, enjoying your write-ups and thoughts as always.

[Love The Action]

Mlb 5/31/11

Pirates ML (+ 100) 1x (locked)
Pirates/Mets under (7.5) 1x (locked)

Mcdonald is pitching well and should limit the mets scoring. Dickey may or may not be healthy, but I don't see the pirates offense scoring too many. However, the pirates should score enough to win a low scoring close game. Good luck.

[ColdBeerHere]

LTA, one of my books is offering these team 1st half totals :

DAL o40 (-255)
MIA o42(-255)

I'm not a huge basketball guru, but it seems both these teams should be able to hit these....any thoughts on these propositions ?

[GGALLERT]

Kc-over
chi cubs rl
braves ml
cle- over

????????

Thoughts?

[Love The Action]

LTA, one of my books is offering these team 1st half totals :

DAL o40 (-255)
MIA o42(-255)

I'm not a huge basketball guru, but it seems both these teams should be able to hit these....any thoughts on these propositions ?

I would not play those...way too much juice which sucks out all the value of the low numbers. You would basically be buying four points for each total. Not a smart proposition. I would stick to the game total. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

Kc-over
chi cubs rl
braves ml
cle- over

????????

Thoughts?

I do not like any of those plays and may play the opposite side on a few. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

Nba total all the way up to 188 with the books juicing the over...great line movement for our play on the over at 186...

[ColdBeerHere]

Thanks for the advice on the half time totals...I'll stay away from it...Don't like a lot of juice myself....

Nice to see that o/u line moving up....Should be be a fun game to watch...I always prefer to watch when I am betting over for some reason...I like rooting for baskets rather than defense....Let's hope they light it up tonight

[GGALLERT]

Thanks for the love...

[Love The Action]

Thanks for the love...

Sorry bud...but I always give my honest opinion. You wouldn't want me to lie right? Anyway, it doesn't matter what I say, if you like those plays you should play them. Good luck!