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Sup LTA,
Quick question.....My book has dropped to 199 o/u but still offers 101 half. Not holding you to anything bro, but what you think has better value?
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What up Redscot...if I had to choose, I would go with the 199 game under as opposed to the 101 half under. This could be a classic game where the 1h goes over but the 2h and game go under because both teams buckle down on D in the 2h. IN the playoffs, teams generally play at a lower pace in the 2H as opposed to the 1h. I don't want to talk you out of anything, but I would go with the game under. Good luck with whatever you choose.Comment -
LTA , my local line is 199 now, is this good or bad sign?Comment -
Those were my feelings as well LAT, thanks for responding. Wish I had jumped the under earlier, but will play a reduced bet.
BOLComment -
yes sir, bol all of usComment -
Total all the way down to 198.5...this is crazy...big money pounding the under. I hope we don't get mushed
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Can't ask for a better start to the Mavs/Thunder game...Comment -
27-12 Dallas winning after the first quarter. Dallas did exactly what I said they needed to do. The got off to a fast start, took OKC's crowd out of the game and is playing strong D. Now they just need to put their foot on OKC's throat for the rest of the game and put this one out of reach. Defense guys, this one will all come down to Dallas' defense the rest of the game. Let's just hope Dallas keep following the formula I predicted...Comment -
Looks solid so far LTA, let's cash this. I got dallas +6.5 and under 204.5 in a 4 teaser!Comment -
MLB 5/21/11
Angels/Braves Over (7) .5x (Locked)
Almost forgot to get this one in with the playoff game on...missed getting my bet on the Angels in so only the total play on the over. Good luck.Comment -
im worried about a million points in the 2nd half if this game stays a blowoutComment -
I'm not...dallas will slow it down in the 4th to run down the clock if still up big Plus, you could always hedge for the middle in the second half. Its only 98.5, so your basically taking an in game line of 188. If you think this games goes over 188 but under 200 then this is a god opportunity.Comment -
Look at this defense being played by dallas...very impressive, just as we thought...Comment -
Bulls +5(-115) +175 ml still recommend doing both? I can also get the series at +175Comment -
I will just say that I am a big believer of the Bulls tomorrow and I don't care what the so called experts on espn or elsewhere have to say. Everyone says to wait until the 4th game, but I think Thibs doesn't coach that way. The urgency for the Bulls is tomorrow and they will play like it.Comment -
Wow so far your analysis have been spot on! I hope we get this one!Comment -
75 pt cushion for the under heading into the 4th quarter...just keep your fingers crossed that okc doesn't hook on a run here and force ot...good luck to all
that tailed.Comment -
Thanks God Westbrook plays so selfishly...those shots when OKC was on their run saves us. I think that backs up my comment when I said he just doesn't "get it." Derrick Rose for example, gets it. Westbrook wants to be Rose, but doesn't have the unselfish gene that Rose has...Comment -
How did this game get so close
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+13 units...NiceComment -
Thank you very much LTA! 2-0!Comment -
Nice work LTA!
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nice one, i had very slight leans to the under once it opened. Then i saw you and BL both on it, wish i had gone for more than 1 unit, but i am happy that it cashed and dallas wonComment -
Great hits tonight looking forward to the game tomorrow.
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Too easy LTA
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Nice
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NBA 5/21/11Nba 5/20/11
Mavs/Thunder under (202) 10x (Locked) WINNER
Mavericks (+3) 3x (locked) WINNER
I think this game comes down to (1) renewed defense on both sides, (2) the veteran-laden Mavs ability to win on the road (3) distractions about Westbrook, (4) Westbrook playing outside the offense and forcing too many shots tonight, (5) reduced production from OKC's bench and (6) the books overreaction to the first two game overs by giving us a ton of value on the under.
The big talk out of Dallas after game 2 was a renewed focus on defense for this game. The Mavs will slow the pace of this game because they know they can't run with the young Thunder team and win this series. After game one, the Mavs thought they could just feed Nowitzki, shoot some threes and not worry about defense. Clearly, after losing home court advantage, the Mavs have woken up to realize that defense is key and they now know that this series will be won or lost on the defensive end.
Bottom line is if Dallas plays defense like they did throughout the regular season, and like they did against Portland and LA, they should pull out the win tonight in a game that stays under the posted total. The Mavs are all talking as though they now understand how important team defense is and that they will not win without stepping up the defensive intensity. Now comes the time to prove it and I think the Mavs will do just that because they have the veteran players and individual matchups to back up their words. This is a veteran team that will listen to Carlisle and follow through on the recommended defensive adjustments. Chandler, Nowitzki and Haywood will block the paint and go toe-to-toe with Perkins, Ibaka and Collison. Chandler may just be the most athletic of that group and it's no secret that he specializes in defense, rebounding and energy. Even though Perkins is tough, Chandler will do the little things just like Perkins. Ibaka is very athletic too, but he is not as polished and well-rounded as Chandler. Consequently, I put a lot of stock in Chandler coming out aggressive, full of energy and read to play some defense in the paint tonight. However, I really think both teams' front courts will play tough, aggressive defense in this game 3 which only helps out our under play.
The Mavs are a team of veterans, whether young or old, they all have playoff experience and know what it takes to win. That veteran experience is what allowed them to be one of the best road teams in the league this year. If you remember, earlier on the season before Dirk went down, the Mavs were cashing road games left and right, but lacked a little focus at home. I made a ton of money this season off playing the Mavs on the road and fading them at home. This trend was a solid money-maker all year and I'm going to trust in the Mavs ability to bounce-back from a tough loss in game 2 at home. In that game 2, I think the Mavs lost some focus and let the all the hype from the Lakers series and game one of this series go to their collective head. However, after the loss in game 2, I think all that changes. I expect a renewed defensive effort, a renewed focus and a ton of energy from the Mavs in game 3. The Mavs will want to come out with a strong effort right off the bat in order to keep OKC's crowd out of the game and I think the veteran experience of the Mavs and their season-long consistent ability to win on the road, makes the difference here.
On the other end, even though OKC has the home crowd on its side, I think there may be enough distractions with Westbrook that it could hurt their focus just enough for Dallas to steal this game 3. Westbrook is still an immature player and doesn't "get it" quite yet. I think we see Westbrook come out of the gate firing up shots to establish himself right away. However, if he misses a few of those early shots, and those shots happen to be bad shots out of the flow of OKC's offense, then I think we could see quite a conundrum for Brooks. Does he put Westbrook back on the bench for an extended period of time, or does he let the kid play through some early struggles? It will certainly be interesting, but I think there have been enough distractions by all of this, that it leaves a little window for Dallas to get out to an early lead and then settle in defensively to suffocate OKC's offense.
Either way, however, I do not expect OKC to shoot 55% from the field like they did in game 2. That shooting performance was unreal and was really due primarily to Harden and OKC's bench. Do you really think Dallas will allow OKC's bench 50 points again? I wish there was a prop bet on bench points, because I would pound the OKC bench under. There is no way, whether due to Dallas' defense or simple reversionary math, that Collison, Cook and Perkins will shoot 100% like they did in game 2. Furthermore, Harden and Maynor will not shoot 85% like they did in game 2, and quite frankly, I don't see Durant, Westbrook and Ibaka hitting at the 50% clip they hit at in game 2. Both the expected defensive adjustments by Dallas, and simple percentages, tell me that this inevitable drop in offensive production by OKC will lead to both a Dallas win and a game that stays under the posted total.
Finally, the early sharp money came in on both Dallas and under. The books opened at +3, and that quickly fell to +2.5 as the big money came in on Dallas. However, the real gift by the books was on the under because opening this game at 202 has to be a joke. That is a complete overreaction to public perception that these two teams will hit the over every time they play because the first two games went over. That will not happen. The books knew that everyone would be on the over in this game 3, so they put out an opening number that would garner a lot of money on the under in order to cover their butts. However, to me, they could have opened at 201 and had the same people pound the under (I would have). Therefore, I think that 202 number is just gravy for a game that requires both teams to make a renewed effort on defense. This has happened throughout the playoffs. For example, just look at OKC's last series against Memphis. The first two games sailed over, however, once they got back to Memphis, that third game stayed way under the posted total despite overtime. I expect the same effect here. I have this game capped between 197 and 199. For the books to give us 202 is just gravy and I had to pound the under at 202. That is just too much value to pass up in a playoff game where both teams need to revive their defense in order to win.
As I stated in my post below respecting the ref assignments, all three refs favor the under and the road team ATS. Foster is the only one with more overs than unders in totals set between 198 and 202 and all three average under 198 points. With all three refs favoring the under as a whole and all three favoring the road team ATS, we can't complain about the ref assignments and just need to keep our fingers crossed that these guys follow their season trends.
I'm going to ride the zig-zag here on both the side and the total and trust that the veteran-laden Mavericks bounce-back from the loss at home and win this game with a renewed defensive effort and presence. This is correlated play with the under, because in order for Dallas to win, they need to reestablish their defensive intensity. Consequently, I'm rolling with Dallas +3 for 3x and the under for 10x at 202 as I expect that number to end up being a big gift from the books.
I may add a unit or so to the Dallas ML as well. Good luck guys. Let's cash both these plays for a huge night!
2 - 0 = +13x
In this thread:
16 - 12 = +34.9x
You can't analyze a game any better than we did above. We could have put the whole writeup in bold. I hope some of your tailed and were able to cash. We are now up over 60 units in total profit from the playoffs alone, including plays from this thread and my first round threads. That equals what I made in the regular season. I love the playoffs!
Now it's time to forget about this one and move onto the Bulls/Heat game tomorrow. I LOVE THE BULLS...let's get that sweep again tomorrow..Bulls and the over my friends. Let's get it!
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MLB 5/21/11
3 - 3 = +.5x
In this thread:
47 - 42 = +10.5x
A small profit on the day as we win our biggest MLB play of the day with a 2x unit winner on the Reds/Indians under. If the damn Astros would have just held on for the win after leading 4-0 in this seventh. We made an error in judgment in going against some strong trends with Oak ml play over SF. That didn't work out, but we learned something and that makes the 1x loss on that play all the worth it. All in all, you can't complain about a profitable day in both MLB and NBA. Now it's time to start looking at tomorrow's games...Comment -
Boomshakala winner
"don't stop don't stop go go go go go go..." - dean martin.Comment -
I said good day!
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LTA, would you go with the under again in game 4 on OKL-DALL? Even I don't like to have the same bet on 2 consecutive games, the under lookes to good when this game is played in Oklahoma.Comment -
That was an outstanding write-up/analysis. Congrats.Comment
Good luck to you too!
