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I told you to go all in
That stinks you didn't get the 202 opening number...the main reason this is a 10x play for me is because of the value of the 202 number. This game should be set around 198-200 and the books gave us great value on the under in opening at the 202 number. When I saw that was the opening total, my eyes lit up and I was excited because I knew the books made a mistake here and overreacted to the public's perception related to the recent overs. I jumped on it right away because I knew smart/big money would also spot this error and the 202 number would not be around for long. I was right on the money in my analysis and the total readily dropped throughout yesterday morning to its current 200 number. That means we beat another closer (assuming it doesn't go back up) and consistently beating the closing number on the side or the total means you will win more than you lose -- leading directly to profit.
With all that said, however, one might say that if the under is going to hit at 202, it should also hit at 200. It's your call, but if I had to choose between the over and the under at 200, I would still take the under. You might also weigh the possibility that the line goes up at some point today because of public money coming in on the over. I actually think it might get up to 201 before falling again before tip. However, if you decide to wait, you will need to be able to monitor the lines and if Pinny or another sharp book starts to juice the under real heavy at 200, you should probably just pull the trigger. Good luck GT!
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Ref Update:
Davis, Foster and Delaney will be the refs tonight. I am pleased on a whole with these assignments as they could have been much worse. Not only do all three generally favor the road team ATS, they also have a slight under lean.
Foster is the only one with more overs than unders in totals set between 198 and 202 and all three average under 198 points. All three have a slight under lean as a whole.
Hopefully, we see all three refs follow their season trends and this one stays under 202 with a Dallas win/cover. I will still try to get a writeup on this game up sometime today, but I have to cap MLB and take care of a few things for the wife. Good luck today!Comment -
Thanks LTA. Wow, I've seen about 3 great total handicappers on the under, You, BL and Kob is that a good thing or a bad thing?Comment -
MLB 5/21/11
Astros ML (+175) .6x (Locked)
Hou/Tor Under (7.5) .5x (Locked)
Brett Myers for Houston v. Morrow of Toronto. There is no way Morrow should be juiced at -200...that is a bit crazy and is only that high because the public is all over the Blue Jays. Granted, I would usually not take a crap team like the Astros to win two days in a row against an up and coming American League team at home. It doesn't make much sense. However, the public is pounding Toronto and over here, but the big money is coming in on the contrarian plays. I love this scenario and I'm getting great odds on one team's ace against the other team's fourth starter. Also, Myers pitched really well last time out against the Cardinals, only to lose in extra innings.
I think this is a closer game than people think and if Houston can win, I cash for sure because of the high odds. If the under cashes but Houston loses, I pretty much break even. And if I lose both plays, I'm really only down 1 unit. Therefore, I'm basically risking 1 unit to win 1.5 units and I like those odds where Morrow is not that great and Myers is hot. Good luck.Comment -
I think this game comes down to (1) renewed defense on both sides, (2) the veteran-laden Mavs ability to win on the road (3) distractions about Westbrook, (4) Westbrook playing outside the offense and forcing too many shots tonight, (5) reduced production from OKC's bench and (6) the books overreaction to the first two game overs by giving us a ton of value on the under.
The big talk out of Dallas after game 2 was a renewed focus on defense for this game. The Mavs will slow the pace of this game because they know they can't run with the young Thunder team and win this series. After game one, the Mavs thought they could just feed Nowitzki, shoot some threes and not worry about defense. Clearly, after losing home court advantage, the Mavs have woken up to realize that defense is key and they now know that this series will be won or lost on the defensive end.
Bottom line is if Dallas plays defense like they did throughout the regular season, and like they did against Portland and LA, they should pull out the win tonight in a game that stays under the posted total. The Mavs are all talking as though they now understand how important team defense is and that they will not win without stepping up the defensive intensity. Now comes the time to prove it and I think the Mavs will do just that because they have the veteran players and individual matchups to back up their words. This is a veteran team that will listen to Carlisle and follow through on the recommended defensive adjustments. Chandler, Nowitzki and Haywood will block the paint and go toe-to-toe with Perkins, Ibaka and Collison. Chandler may just be the most athletic of that group and it's no secret that he specializes in defense, rebounding and energy. Even though Perkins is tough, Chandler will do the little things just like Perkins. Ibaka is very athletic too, but he is not as polished and well-rounded as Chandler. Consequently, I put a lot of stock in Chandler coming out aggressive, full of energy and read to play some defense in the paint tonight. However, I really think both teams' front courts will play tough, aggressive defense in this game 3 which only helps out our under play.
The Mavs are a team of veterans, whether young or old, they all have playoff experience and know what it takes to win. That veteran experience is what allowed them to be one of the best road teams in the league this year. If you remember, earlier on the season before Dirk went down, the Mavs were cashing road games left and right, but lacked a little focus at home. I made a ton of money this season off playing the Mavs on the road and fading them at home. This trend was a solid money-maker all year and I'm going to trust in the Mavs ability to bounce-back from a tough loss in game 2 at home. In that game 2, I think the Mavs lost some focus and let the all the hype from the Lakers series and game one of this series go to their collective head. However, after the loss in game 2, I think all that changes. I expect a renewed defensive effort, a renewed focus and a ton of energy from the Mavs in game 3. The Mavs will want to come out with a strong effort right off the bat in order to keep OKC's crowd out of the game and I think the veteran experience of the Mavs and their season-long consistent ability to win on the road, makes the difference here.
On the other end, even though OKC has the home crowd on its side, I think there may be enough distractions with Westbrook that it could hurt their focus just enough for Dallas to steal this game 3. Westbrook is still an immature player and doesn't "get it" quite yet. I think we see Westbrook come out of the gate firing up shots to establish himself right away. However, if he misses a few of those early shots, and those shots happen to be bad shots out of the flow of OKC's offense, then I think we could see quite a conundrum for Brooks. Does he put Westbrook back on the bench for an extended period of time, or does he let the kid play through some early struggles? It will certainly be interesting, but I think there have been enough distractions by all of this, that it leaves a little window for Dallas to get out to an early lead and then settle in defensively to suffocate OKC's offense.
Either way, however, I do not expect OKC to shoot 55% from the field like they did in game 2. That shooting performance was unreal and was really due primarily to Harden and OKC's bench. Do you really think Dallas will allow OKC's bench 50 points again? I wish there was a prop bet on bench points, because I would pound the OKC bench under. There is no way, whether due to Dallas' defense or simple reversionary math, that Collison, Cook and Perkins will shoot 100% like they did in game 2. Furthermore, Harden and Maynor will not shoot 85% like they did in game 2, and quite frankly, I don't see Durant, Westbrook and Ibaka hitting at the 50% clip they hit at in game 2. Both the expected defensive adjustments by Dallas, and simple percentages, tell me that this inevitable drop in offensive production by OKC will lead to both a Dallas win and a game that stays under the posted total.
Finally, the early sharp money came in on both Dallas and under. The books opened at +3, and that quickly fell to +2.5 as the big money came in on Dallas. However, the real gift by the books was on the under because opening this game at 202 has to be a joke. That is a complete overreaction to public perception that these two teams will hit the over every time they play because the first two games went over. That will not happen. The books knew that everyone would be on the over in this game 3, so they put out an opening number that would garner a lot of money on the under in order to cover their butts. However, to me, they could have opened at 201 and had the same people pound the under (I would have). Therefore, I think that 202 number is just gravy for a game that requires both teams to make a renewed effort on defense. This has happened throughout the playoffs. For example, just look at OKC's last series against Memphis. The first two games sailed over, however, once they got back to Memphis, that third game stayed way under the posted total despite overtime. I expect the same effect here. I have this game capped between 197 and 199. For the books to give us 202 is just gravy and I had to pound the under at 202. That is just too much value to pass up in a playoff game where both teams need to revive their defense in order to win.
As I stated in my post below respecting the ref assignments, all three refs favor the under and the road team ATS. Foster is the only one with more overs than unders in totals set between 198 and 202 and all three average under 198 points. With all three refs favoring the under as a whole and all three favoring the road team ATS, we can't complain about the ref assignments and just need to keep our fingers crossed that these guys follow their season trends.
I'm going to ride the zig-zag here on both the side and the total and trust that the veteran-laden Mavericks bounce-back from the loss at home and win this game with a renewed defensive effort and presence. This is correlated play with the under, because in order for Dallas to win, they need to reestablish their defensive intensity. Consequently, I'm rolling with Dallas +3 for 3x and the under for 10x at 202 as I expect that number to end up being a big gift from the books.
I may add a unit or so to the Dallas ML as well. Good luck guys. Let's cash both these plays for a huge night!
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Lets go Lightning!Comment -
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MLB 5/21/11
Reds/Indians under (7.5) 2x (Locked)
I've been eyeing this play all morning and should have jumped on it when it was at 8. However, despite 65%+ of all bets on the over, this total dropped to 7.5 from 8, with the under continuing to be juiced at most outlets.
This game features two of the games young studs in Bailey and Tomlin. It's always a bit risky playing the under with these two teams' high powered offense in full effect, however, I like to base a lot of my plays on starting pitching and I think this matchup keeps it under 7 total runs today.
I like this game for 2x because of how hot these two pitcher have been. Unfortunately, I acknowledge the risk based on both teams playing to the over recently. It's a beautiful day for baseball in Cleveland and I think the atmosphere with two local rivals leads to an under today. Good luck...Comment -
So pissed I passed up my lean on the over in the WhiteSox/Dodgers game. They are already at 9 runs in the 6th inning...don't you just hate it when the game you play loses but your lean wins? Argh...
Let's cash this Indians/Reds under and all will be well...Comment -
bodog for mavs/okc o/u is at 201(-110)Comment -
Yeah, but Bodog is a square book. They don't like winner sso it's to be expected that they have a higher line than the other books. Every single other book is down to 200 with even juice, despite over 70% of all bets on the over. Big money is on the under right now...you can bank on that. Good luck.Comment -
+2.5 on mavs worth 3x still?Comment -
got 10x on the under LETS DO THIS!Comment -
Anyone else like Oakland over the Giants today? I hate betting against Lincecum, but Brett Anderson is pretty damn good and I love getting +130 with him on the mound....Comment -
too hard to bet against Lincecum, his w/l isn't that great but he doesn't get much run support....Comment -
I was at the Giants and A's game last night and it was pretty cold out there. They were giving out orange blankie so it was pretty cool.
Lets go teamComment -
Timmy the Freak coming off a horrific start in Coors Field is back at home in SF......too tough of a combo there to go against Lincy in this spot
Besides, Timmy has OWNED the A's in his career....something like 6-0 w/ an ERA in the high 1's
Giants have their mojo back working this week after 2 nice road wins vs. Dodgers plus last night's walk-off win in 10 innings
Giants RL -1.5 @ +170 looks really nice to meComment -
lemme know LTAComment -
More MLB plays coming in about ten minutes...we cashed our big 2x play on the Indians/Reds under!
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MLB 5/21/11
Oakland ML (+132) 1x (Locked)
Cubs ML (+145) .5x (Locked)
I like the value in Brett Anderson at +132. This guy is a stud and even though Lincecum is too, I think we see Oakland pull it out. I also like the under in that game, but will 77% on the under and no line move or juice towards the under, I will lay off. I know all the trends point to SF here, but trends were made to be broken and I like the fact that everyone is on SF. Go A's!
If the Cubs have any pride today, they will win. That's it. You have Zabrano against a reliever, so big Z should come ready to pitch against a high profile team. The Cubs are desperate for a win and should find a way to pull it out if they can actually catch the ball today.
I also have leans to Texas ML, Tex/Phil over, Det/Pit under and Pit ML. I will probably have a late play on the Angels/Atlanta side and/or total. Good luck!Comment -
Good luck today bud!!Comment -
I'm feeling really good about our Dallas and Under plays tonight. The total has dropped all the way down to 199.5 now, despite the majority of all bets on the over. In addition, the Dallas line is getting big action and is getting juiced heavy at +2.5.
We have our plays in at +3 and 202 respectively, and once again we killed the closing number. When you beat closers like this, you will win over the long haul. I love these plays tonight, I don't really care who else is with me or against me. Let's cash these tickets! Can't wait till the game.Comment -
Riding the under again with you LTA
Like the last game I feel pretty good about it but lets see what happens
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Good buy LTA
I'm still learning how to track these line movements and I lucked out because it has dropped to 199.5.
I was eyeing it at 200.5 but it never budge the 200 marker for the longest time.
I guess I'll buy it now before it lose more value on this nice under.Comment -
I'm on the under too, good luck everyone!Comment
