Nice hit LTA. One that proves that a solid analysis + early lines = $$$$ 
Good luck with Bulls game 3, let's keep it going!
Good luck with Bulls game 3, let's keep it going!
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gl on your plays todayComment -
Excellent Writeup
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MLB 5/22/11
Rockies ML (-110) 1x (Locked)
Oakland ML (+105) 1x (Locked)
I locked these in yesterday before I went to bed because I wanted to make sure I didn't lose any value. Both of these teams will be desperate for a win in order to avoid the sweep. I understand all the negatives working against me with these plays (e.g. Jimenez poor season, SF's dominance of Oak, etc.), however, I think both of these teams will find a way to avoid the sweep. I like backing teams in this situation.
The Rockies have Jimenez pitching against Randy Wolf. As you know, I fade Wolf wherever possible and we have made nice profit so far this year following that plan. Furthermore, the Rockies' backs are against the wall in this game and need to find a way to win in order to avoid the sweep. With Jimenze pitching much better of late, I like the Rockies to get it done in Milwaukee this afternoon.
On the other side of the country, we have Oakland and Gonzalez going against SF and Sanchez. This is a good pitching matchup, but again, Oakland's backs are against the wall and need a win to avoid the sweep. Plus, the A's were shutout yesterday by Lincecum. I really like to back teams in both of these situations. Gio is great pitcher to have today and, with Gio getting + odds for one of the few times this season, I think we are getting good value here. Sanchez has not been pitching all that great and I think the sense of urgency you will see from the A's today will get them over the top. I may add units to this play.
Good luck. More MLB plays to come...Comment -
Rockies (-125) and Oakland at (-105) i don't think im getting the value thoughts???Comment -
You're definitely not getting the best price...however, I played them on the ML so I definitely think they both win. You just need to ask yourself if you think Milwaukee and SF will be able to pull off the sweep. Personally, I don't think so.
Working on the Bulls writeup now and getting ready for the early MLB games. Be back soon...Comment -
LTA, I got 179.5 should I take the under instead?Comment -
Ref Assignments are out, with Javie, Garretson and Callahan as the main refs and Zarba as the reserve. Oh man, I really hope Zarba ends up on the floor as he is one of the best refs to have for an over play. The other guys generally favor the under. More analysis of the refs to come in my writeup on the game...Comment -
Riding the Bulls bets but I'll stay away for right now on the Rockies Im with you on the A's I like Gio a lotComment -
Although I was really looking forward to yesterday's game, this is the game I have been waiting for...Game 3, Bulls v. Heat in Miami...does it get any better? I firmly believe that the winner of this game will most likely be the team that wins the series. This is not certain, but make no mistake about it that this game is pivotal for both teams and gives the winning team a huge advantage. As you know, I already have 5x on the Bulls to come out of the East, so it should be no surprise that I think the Bulls will win game 3 tonight.
This game will come down to (1) the Bulls' defensive and offensive adjustments orchestrated by coach Thibs, (2) the expectation that Rose bounces back from a poor game to have a great game tonight, (3) the Bullls' dominance and depth in the front court in grabbing the off/def rebounds which lead to second-chance points, (4) increased offensive production from the Bulls bench and role players, (5) a quick start by the Bulls nullifying the home crowd, (6) the Bulls' urgency to win and (7) a defensive game plan that will limit Wade and Lebron but give Bosh easy looks.
The Bulls rarely lose back-to-back games and have not done so since February. This can be directly attributable to the adjustments and game planning by Thibs. He is the coach of the year because he is one of the best x's and o's game planners in the league. He is great at adjusting his schemes on a game-by-game basis and is not only reactive as to what the opposing team does, but is proactive in anticipating those moves and planning ahead. After game 1 of the Hawks/Bulls series, I made my biggest play of the year, a 15x winner on the Bulls/Hawks under, because I knew the Bulls would bounce back from the game 1 loss with a great game plan orchestrated by Thibs to limit the Hawk's offensively. The Bulls did in fact bounce back with a win in that spot, and I think the Bulls bounce back in this spot as well after having played very poorly in game 2 earlier this week.
If you look at what I stated in the writeup from game 2 of Hawks/Bulls (see post #137), the analysis also applies in this situation as it relates to the Bulls ability to rebound with a win after a bad loss. However, the evidence for this assertion can be found in the Bulls' playoff results so far. Specifically, after the Bulls 3 playoff losses to date, they have responded with wins by 27, 13 and 12 respective points. Now, I understand that everyone will say those wins were not against the Heat on the road. However, we don't need a double digit win, we just need a win and I think the Bulls make it happen tonight by ramping up their intensity, sense of urgency and overall energy on both offense and defense. I look at Thibs to use a scheme that requires immediate help defense on Wade and Lebron, while leaving Bosh to do his thing. At the end of the day, the Bulls will be happy if Bosh gets 30, but they limit Lebron and Wade to 24 or less. The Bulls' ability to bounce back can be directly attributed to the Bulls coaching adjustments, and those adjustments are evidenced in their ability to avoid back-to back losses. I think that trend continues tonight and Thibs' coaching adjustments will be complemented by the likelihood that Rose has a great game.
Don't sleep on Rose in this game. He is the antithesis of most NBA players. He works harder than most and has that special quality that you only see in the best of the best. He has the killer instinct and competitiveness that is rare today, but was previously displayed by such hall of fame players as MJ, Bird, Thomas, etc. When Rose asked "why not me" with respect to the MVP winner, everyone laughed and did not take him seriously. However, Rose was serious and put in the hard work to make that dream a reality. Rose worked day in and day out last summer on getting the outside shot that would be such a great complement to his athletic game. Rose's hard work paid off and he worked himself into a good outside shooter. He still has work to do with respect to his defense, but that will come. If you are thinking of making a prop play tonight, you may want to take a look at what the books offer for Rose. I expect all Rose's intangibles to shine tonight and for Rose to have a big game and lead his teammates to the victory. Rose always remembers bad games and makes a point to avenge such poor performances. He has done this all year and I expect a great performance after he shot 7-23 from the field and 0-3 from three point range in game 2. I fully expect Rose to bounce back with an efficient 25 pts+ and playmaker type game where he makes everyone around him better. However, Rose cannot do it alone and his teammates' contribution will be critical.
In order for the Bulls to win, we will need offensive and defensive production out of Deng, Boozer, Noah, Korver/Bogans/Brewer, Gibson and the rest of the bench. Rose cannot do it by himself today and his teammates understand that fact. The big talk out of Chicago after game 2 was the lack of offensive help for Rose. I have heard directly from Thibs' and players' mouths that they know Rose can't do it alone and it's up to everyone else to step up tonight on offense. Korver has played horribly, with three shots going in and out in game 2. I think, as a veteran, he understands what is on the line tonight and steps up to finally hit some big shots. Deng's defense on Lebron has been stellar, but he needs to have the same offensive production as he did in game 1. Boozer needs to get 15 points and then sit for most of the fourth quarter. Gibson, Asik and Noah are pivotal to this game. I believe the Bulls' dominance in the paint, led primarily by those three and Boozer, must shine tonight for the Bulls to win. The Bulls ability to control the boards and get the second-chance points will be ultra-important tonight. This is where the Bulls have the advantage in both talent and intangibles and must exploit this weakness in the Heat in order to win. The Bulls did this in game 1 and will need to return that level of production from their front-line players in order to win tonight. I think we see an entire team effort tonight from the Bulls from the very beginning to the very end. The Bulls' dominance in the paint must make the difference tonight and I think it will. Because I think we will see offensive production from all of the Bulls players tonight, I am also going to roll with the over.
I think the over is the play tonight because both teams should hit 90+. I don't think either will get to 97, but I expect a final score between 180 and 185. The Bulls shot 34% from the field, 15% from three point range and only 61% from the free throw line and were limited to 10 points in the fourth quarter. Those are god-awful numbers and I doubt they shoot so poorly again. However, despite those horrible numbers, they still hit 75 points. All we need is 5-7 more shots to go down with a few more free throws and the Bulls should easily hit 90 points. The Bulls were 5-2 in favor of the over this year when playing on 3 days of rest and 4-0 in favor of the over in their last four games in this situation. They also averaged 198 points in those games. Having watched many Bulls games this year, I know they like to play fast after having multiple days of rest. In addition, the Heat generally play a faster pace at home than on the road, and I expect both teams to come out gunning. Perhaps a 1q and/or 1h over play is warranted here as well. The Bulls will want to get out to a fast offensive start in order to quiet the crowd. Do not be surprised if the Bulls are winning at the end of the 1q tonight or if the 1q goes over. The Bulls' offensive production is pivotal to their overall success in this game and has been mentioned by many Bulls players in interviews I have read/heard.
Unfortunately, the refs generally favor the under with Javie, Garretson and Callahan as the main zebras tonight. However, Zarba is the reserve and if he actually ends up on the court, he will have his whistle in his mouth the whole game. I hate having Zarba ref games where I am on the under, but equally love him when on the over. Let's just hope he gets on the court. Even if he doesn't, however, the other refs (other than Javie) do not have huge leans in favor of the under, so while I don't expect a ton of help from the refs tonight, we should still see around 50 free throw attempts overall. The Bulls, however, must hit 75% or thereabouts and increase their hit rate from the woeful 61% they shot from the free throw line in game 2. I expect that to happen and this game to go over 179 points.
The side for this game opened up at a whopping +6 for the Bulls. Even though there has been equal action with respect to total number of bets, the big money has been on the Bulls driving that price down to +4.5 at all major books as I type. One of my locals even has +4. The total opened at 179 and dropped to 178.5 before jumping back to 179. I expect it to stay in that 178-179.5 range for most of the day. I hate that the over is such a public play in that 70% are on the over, however, the public does win almost 50% of the time so there is no reason one of those winners can't be tonight. Remember, we bet with value and I believe this game hits 182, which is where I have my line for tonight's game and is why I believe I am getting value on the over at 179. Therefore, I'm rolling with the over and rooting for points.
I know this game will be hard for the Bulls. The Heat present a big challenge, especially at home. I think the Bulls allow Bosh to get his points, but play extremely physical with Lebron and Wade. The Bulls will try to physically wear Lebron and Wade down throughout the game so that they do not have enough left in the tank at the end of the game to pull out the win. Remember, Wade and Lebron need to play as much as possible for the Heat to win. The Bulls know this and will throw everything they have at those two players. If either of those players gets in foul trouble, well at least they won't be on the court and the Bulls can take advantage of the Heat's lack of depth. On the other hand, if Wade and Lebron end up playing major minutes in the first three quarters, they will be tired for the fourth quarter. Either way, in my eyes, this situation adds up as a win for the Bulls tonight.
The Bulls will play with a sense of urgency that I do not think the Heat will have. I believe the Heat feel they are back in the driver's seat of this series after winning game 2 and taking home court advantage. I think that will work to the Bulls benefit as that may leave just a tiny bit of room for the Bulls to get off to quick start. Thibs will make it a point to drive home the importance of this game 3. The time for the Bulls to win in Miami is now. There is no waiting until game 4 and I believe the Bulls will play with that necessary sense of urgency and extra energy to pull out the win. I'm rolling with the zig-zag here and feel that the Bulls find a way to pull out the win in Miami tonight.
I look forward to hearing everyone's thoughts. Good luck tonight! Let's get the sweep 2 nights in a row!
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Excellent writeup LTA! I'm with you on the Bulls today. I think this will go to the last shot.Comment -
Tigers/Pirates over (8) .5x (Locked)
Rangers ML (+130) .5x (Locked)
Line movement points to the over in Tigers/Pirates and I'm going to roll with it. Maholm has pitched to 8 straight unders and I think that trend stops today as the Tigers desperately need runs. I like Tigers and the ML too, but the price is too big now.
I also like the Rangers to avoid the sweep. This is an angle I like to play with good teams. The Rangers should find a way to get it done today against Oswalt. Both of these are light plays, so let's see what happens. Good luck.Comment -
A lot on the over for bulls right now......Comment -
Yeah, and the line has just gone up to 179.5 on Pinny. According to the percentages, you currently have 70% on the over and the line has gone up. Yesterday, we had more than 70% on the over, but the line went down. Please make note of the difference. This tells me that both the public and the sharp money is on the over. If all of the sharps were on the under in this game, the total would stay at 179 or go down just like yesterday. However, because at least some sharps are on the over, the total is creeping up. That is a good sign.
Remember, as long as we beat the closer, we are on the right track and getting as much value as possible. Value = profit over the long haul. Good luck.Comment -
Like the plays, rolling with the Bulls here too. Seems that in both conference finals series, teams have alternated wins regardless of home court. The team losing the previous game has come out with more fight and just wanted to win more. That puts the Bulls in this situation tonight, let's get it.
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Glad to hear it.
I agree about the opener...I really wish I was able to get +6, but I was in a meeting at work and missed it. I could have gotten +5.5, but I waited a couple extra hours debating whether to buy the half point in order to get +6. Because I waited, I ended up missing +5.5 too
Anyway, I also like the over here. Both teams are rested and I think a fast pace ensues to start this game. I am debating whether to take the 1q over, but probably won't add any more to this card.
Good luck tonight! Let's cash these plays!Comment -
I like your thinking!Like the plays, rolling with the Bulls here too. Seems that in both conference finals series, teams have alternated wins regardless of home court. The team losing the previous game has come out with more fight and just wanted to win more. That puts the Bulls in this situation tonight, let's get it.
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The 1Q total is set at 45.5 and is currently getting juiced on the Under. I don't like the 1Q as much because even though I expect a faster paced game, I can also see the first 3 minutes being very tight before the floodgates open. I played the 1H total instead. It's sitting at O90.5 (-102) at Pinnacle but I sold points up to O92 (+125) as I'm predicting a 95+ point 1H. If it lands at 91 I'm ******, 92 I push, and anything else is either a winner or I would have lost anyways. Not a bad tradeoff for 25% more return.Comment -
hockey bets?Comment -
Bulls/Heat 1h over (90.5) 2x (Locked)
SK alerted me to the value in this play and once I really gave it some thought, I could not pass it up. I checked out all matchups this year so far between the Bulls and Heat and every single 1h went over 90 points, except for the game in early March when the Heat were not playing well. Even so, that one hit 89.
I really like this play and may actually add another half unit or more. Good luck.Comment -
I really like the Diamondbacks to beat the Twins today, but the price is all the way up to -160 and I won't pay that much. However, I think it cashes for anyone out there already on it. A lot of factors, plus great RLM in your favor. Good luck Arizona backers!Comment -
Yep...I was just hesitant because Liriano can come out and throw a really good game out of nowhere and I thought it could end up close at the end based on the first two games (which is also why I didn't eat the juice and play the ML).
I generally don't play a lot of RL's either. Although, it is something I should take advantage of more where I like the favorite to roll but don't want to pay the price. In this matchup, however, I wasn't convinced of a blowout and felt Liriano might just have a good enough day to keep it interesting.Comment -
That's where the value of the -1 comes in as opposed to the ML or the -1.5, especially with the home team. In this case, you'd be paying 50% less juice and while the push is now possible, your odds of losing the wager outright do not increase.Comment -
You and sweetjones55 are now my favorite guys posting on this forum. Both of your writeups are both entertaining & informative and you guys have some solid picks. Keep up the excellent work bro & GO BULLS!!!
Although I was really looking forward to yesterday's game, this is the game I have been waiting for...Game 3, Bulls v. Heat in Miami...does it get any better? I firmly believe that the winner of this game will most likely be the team that wins the series. This is not certain, but make no mistake about it that this game is pivotal for both teams and gives the winning team a huge advantage. As you know, I already have 5x on the Bulls to come out of the East, so it should be no surprise that I think the Bulls will win game 3 tonight.
This game will come down to (1) the Bulls' defensive and offensive adjustments orchestrated by coach Thibs, (2) the expectation that Rose bounces back from a poor game to have a great game tonight, (3) the Bullls' dominance and depth in the front court in grabbing the off/def rebounds which lead to second-chance points, (4) increased offensive production from the Bulls bench and role players, (5) a quick start by the Bulls nullifying the home crowd, (6) the Bulls' urgency to win and (7) a defensive game plan that will limit Wade and Lebron but give Bosh easy looks.
The Bulls rarely lose back-to-back games and have not done so since February. This can be directly attributable to the adjustments and game planning by Thibs. He is the coach of the year because he is one of the best x's and o's game planners in the league. He is great at adjusting his schemes on a game-by-game basis and is not only reactive as to what the opposing team does, but is proactive in anticipating those moves and planning ahead. After game 1 of the Hawks/Bulls series, I made my biggest play of the year, a 15x winner on the Bulls/Hawks under, because I knew the Bulls would bounce back from the game 1 loss with a great game plan orchestrated by Thibs to limit the Hawk's offensively. The Bulls did in fact bounce back with a win in that spot, and I think the Bulls bounce back in this spot as well after having played very poorly in game 2 earlier this week.
If you look at what I stated in the writeup from game 2 of Hawks/Bulls (see post #137), the analysis also applies in this situation as it relates to the Bulls ability to rebound with a win after a bad loss. However, the evidence for this assertion can be found in the Bulls' playoff results so far. Specifically, after the Bulls 3 playoff losses to date, they have responded with wins by 27, 13 and 12 respective points. Now, I understand that everyone will say those wins were not against the Heat on the road. However, we don't need a double digit win, we just need a win and I think the Bulls make it happen tonight by ramping up their intensity, sense of urgency and overall energy on both offense and defense. I look at Thibs to use a scheme that requires immediate help defense on Wade and Lebron, while leaving Bosh to do his thing. At the end of the day, the Bulls will be happy if Bosh gets 30, but they limit Lebron and Wade to 24 or less. The Bulls' ability to bounce back can be directly attributed to the Bulls coaching adjustments, and those adjustments are evidenced in their ability to avoid back-to back losses. I think that trend continues tonight and Thibs' coaching adjustments will be complemented by the likelihood that Rose has a great game.
Don't sleep on Rose in this game. He is the antithesis of most NBA players. He works harder than most and has that special quality that you only see in the best of the best. He has the killer instinct and competitiveness that is rare today, but was previously displayed by such hall of fame players as MJ, Bird, Thomas, etc. When Rose asked "why not me" with respect to the MVP winner, everyone laughed and did not take him seriously. However, Rose was serious and put in the hard work to make that dream a reality. Rose worked day in and day out last summer on getting the outside shot that would be such a great complement to his athletic game. Rose's hard work paid off and he worked himself into a good outside shooter. He still has work to do with respect to his defense, but that will come. If you are thinking of making a prop play tonight, you may want to take a look at what the books offer for Rose. I expect all Rose's intangibles to shine tonight and for Rose to have a big game and lead his teammates to the victory. Rose always remembers bad games and makes a point to avenge such poor performances. He has done this all year and I expect a great performance after he shot 7-23 from the field and 0-3 from three point range in game 2. I fully expect Rose to bounce back with an efficient 25 pts+ and playmaker type game where he makes everyone around him better. However, Rose cannot do it alone and his teammates' contribution will be critical.
In order for the Bulls to win, we will need offensive and defensive production out of Deng, Boozer, Noah, Korver/Bogans/Brewer, Gibson and the rest of the bench. Rose cannot do it by himself today and his teammates understand that fact. The big talk out of Chicago after game 2 was the lack of offensive help for Rose. I have heard directly from Thibs' and players' mouths that they know Rose can't do it alone and it's up to everyone else to step up tonight on offense. Korver has played horribly, with three shots going in and out in game 2. I think, as a veteran, he understands what is on the line tonight and steps up to finally hit some big shots. Deng's defense on Lebron has been stellar, but he needs to have the same offensive production as he did in game 1. Boozer needs to get 15 points and then sit for most of the fourth quarter. Gibson, Asik and Noah are pivotal to this game. I believe the Bulls' dominance in the paint, led primarily by those three and Boozer, must shine tonight for the Bulls to win. The Bulls ability to control the boards and get the second-chance points will be ultra-important tonight. This is where the Bulls have the advantage in both talent and intangibles and must exploit this weakness in the Heat in order to win. The Bulls did this in game 1 and will need to return that level of production from their front-line players in order to win tonight. I think we see an entire team effort tonight from the Bulls from the very beginning to the very end. The Bulls' dominance in the paint must make the difference tonight and I think it will. Because I think we will see offensive production from all of the Bulls players tonight, I am also going to roll with the over.
I think the over is the play tonight because both teams should hit 90+. I don't think either will get to 97, but I expect a final score between 180 and 185. The Bulls shot 34% from the field, 15% from three point range and only 61% from the free throw line and were limited to 10 points in the fourth quarter. Those are god-awful numbers and I doubt they shoot so poorly again. However, despite those horrible numbers, they still hit 75 points. All we need is 5-7 more shots to go down with a few more free throws and the Bulls should easily hit 90 points. The Bulls were 5-2 in favor of the over this year when playing on 3 days of rest and 4-0 in favor of the over in their last four games in this situation. They also averaged 198 points in those games. Having watched many Bulls games this year, I know they like to play fast after having multiple days of rest. In addition, the Heat generally play a faster pace at home than on the road, and I expect both teams to come out gunning. Perhaps a 1q and/or 1h over play is warranted here as well. The Bulls will want to get out to a fast offensive start in order to quiet the crowd. Do not be surprised if the Bulls are winning at the end of the 1q tonight or if the 1q goes over. The Bulls' offensive production is pivotal to their overall success in this game and has been mentioned by many Bulls players in interviews I have read/heard.
Unfortunately, the refs generally favor the under with Javie, Garretson and Callahan as the main zebras tonight. However, Zarba is the reserve and if he actually ends up on the court, he will have his whistle in his mouth the whole game. I hate having Zarba ref games where I am on the under, but equally love him when on the over. Let's just hope he gets on the court. Even if he doesn't, however, the other refs (other than Javie) do not have huge leans in favor of the under, so while I don't expect a ton of help from the refs tonight, we should still see around 50 free throw attempts overall. The Bulls, however, must hit 75% or thereabouts and increase their hit rate from the woeful 61% they shot from the free throw line in game 2. I expect that to happen and this game to go over 179 points.
The side for this game opened up at a whopping +6 for the Bulls. Even though there has been equal action with respect to total number of bets, the big money has been on the Bulls driving that price down to +4.5 at all major books as I type. One of my locals even has +4. The total opened at 179 and dropped to 178.5 before jumping back to 179. I expect it to stay in that 178-179.5 range for most of the day. I hate that the over is such a public play in that 70% are on the over, however, the public does win almost 50% of the time so there is no reason one of those winners can't be tonight. Remember, we bet with value and I believe this game hits 182, which is where I have my line for tonight's game and is why I believe I am getting value on the over at 179. Therefore, I'm rolling with the over and rooting for points.
I know this game will be hard for the Bulls. The Heat present a big challenge, especially at home. I think the Bulls allow Bosh to get his points, but play extremely physical with Lebron and Wade. The Bulls will try to physically wear Lebron and Wade down throughout the game so that they do not have enough left in the tank at the end of the game to pull out the win. Remember, Wade and Lebron need to play as much as possible for the Heat to win. The Bulls know this and will throw everything they have at those two players. If either of those players gets in foul trouble, well at least they won't be on the court and the Bulls can take advantage of the Heat's lack of depth. On the other hand, if Wade and Lebron end up playing major minutes in the first three quarters, they will be tired for the fourth quarter. Either way, in my eyes, this situation adds up as a win for the Bulls tonight.
The Bulls will play with a sense of urgency that I do not think the Heat will have. I believe the Heat feel they are back in the driver's seat of this series after winning game 2 and taking home court advantage. I think that will work to the Bulls benefit as that may leave just a tiny bit of room for the Bulls to get off to quick start. Thibs will make it a point to drive home the importance of this game 3. The time for the Bulls to win in Miami is now. There is no waiting until game 4 and I believe the Bulls will play with that necessary sense of urgency and extra energy to pull out the win. I'm rolling with the zig-zag here and feel that the Bulls find a way to pull out the win in Miami tonight.
I look forward to hearing everyone's thoughts. Good luck tonight! Let's get the sweep 2 nights in a row!Comment
