LTA's NBA Plays for Round 2, Conf. Finals & Championship

[Love The Action]

Don't worry...we'll be fine as long as the refs keep the whistle out of their mouths. We have a respectable cushion at the moment.

[NBA_Brosuf]

man, the concern here is the potential OT.

I'm doing my voodoo for that not to happen.

Why I'm so excited in this game, I dunno. LOL

[kobstopa]

73 73 tied 4:36 to go, we got a few deflections, turn overs and miss shots. defense is really step up. now come on.

[Love The Action]

man, the concern here is the potential OT.

Shhh...don't even say that. I was burned by that 14 times this season on various unders, including the Boston/Heat playoff OT...I can't take any more of that and the gambling gods could not be so vicious...or could they...lol

[Love The Action]

The Orioles have had the bases loaded three times in extra innings tied with the Yankees 1-1 and have failed to score the walkoff run each time. Unreal...

[nmodi]

the way they r scoring even overtime wont put it over .....

[Love The Action]

Looking good...just can't have a boatload of fouls now.

[kobstopa]

it's looking good
wow, Bron and Wade took it over, with clutch plays, LT, this is exactly what i was seeing from the start of the series. I love the Bulls defense and team efforts, but this is a killer & finally i hope people got my points & argument that the Heats is dangerous man.

[Love The Action]

Cash it easy!

[kobstopa]

yes, we got it. I will cash Miami +1.5/under 183.5 as well.

[hawley]

worked out perfectly.

No way this was going over again with 64% of the public on it

Late action favored the under as well

[Love The Action]

it's looking good
wow, Bron and Wade took it over, with clutch plays, LT, this is exactly what i was seeing from the start of the series. I love the Bulls defense and team efforts, but this is a killer & finally i hope people got my points & argument that the Heats is dangerous man.

If you look at my writeup on the Bulls series win play, I give Miami their due. I just think the Bulls will wear them down with their depth. They can't play LBJ and Wade 45 minutes per game without wearing them out and losing in the long run. Congrats on the under and your earlier play.

[nickos86]

Ridiculous 4Q. Barely made it over 20pts.

Great game to watch though - some amazing defense.

Congrats all

[Love The Action]

worked out perfectly.

No way this was going over again with 64% of the public on it

Late action favored the under as well

You know it...we had it pegged from the start.

[Love The Action]

Ridiculous 4Q. Barely made it over 20pts.

Great game to watch though - some amazing defense.

Congrats all

[Love The Action]

yes, we got it. I will cash Miami +1.5/under 183.5 as well.

Great night...congrats

[migz]

Nice win will you also take under game 3?

[nmodi]

LTA any early lean on OKC/DAL game2????

[Love The Action]

Both my Orioles and Royals play are in extra innings as the home teams. If I can pull them out, I can have a really great night.

[Love The Action]

LTA any early lean on OKC/DAL game2????

Nice win will you also take under game 3?

I have a small lean on the under in OKC/Dal game 2 and over Heat/Bulls game 3. However, both of those leans can easily change. Regardless, however, both games will be played light. I do not forsee a big play with either of those games.

[NBA_Brosuf]

First half, it didn't look good and I wasn't cheering. Second half is where the fun begins.

Another good one LTA. Mama is gonna be proud at me now.

[Love The Action]

I'm doing my voodoo for that not to happen.

Why I'm so excited in this game, I dunno. LOL

Because it's fun to win, isn't it!?!

[Love The Action]

First half, it didn't look good and I wasn't cheering. Second half is where the fun begins.

Another good one LTA. Mama is gonna be proud at me now.

Glad I could help

[Love The Action]

Both the Orioles and the Royals again had runners in scoring position with less than two outs and failed to score the winning run. Oh man, they are now in the 15th and 13th innings of both games. I really need those winners for an awesome night.

[ParlayKing]

Cash it LTA!

[Love The Action]

Cash it LTA!

Yes sir!

[NBA_Brosuf]

Both the Orioles and the Royals again had runners in scoring position with less than two outs and failed to score the winning run. Oh man, they are now in the 15th and 13th innings of both games. I really need those winners for an awesome night.

Until these 2 games are over with, I don't think we will get an OKC game 2 write up.

LOL


I don't know about anyone else but sport betting, unless it is the final final game or the super bowl or the final game of the world series, sport betting is like doing a hooker. Once the game is over, we have no emotion towards it and we move on to the next game.

Even with an epic win, you have less than 12 hours to let it all soak on in before you cap your next game.

I'm totally over tonight's game and looking forward to tomorrow.

[Love The Action]

NBA 5/18/11

Heat/Bulls Under (182) 5x (Locked)

Adding 5x Heat/Bulls Under (182) (-120) (Locked) for total of 10x

Adding .5x Heat/Bulls Under (181) (Locked) for a total of 10.5x WINNER

I will most likely add 5x after reviewing the ref assignments later this morning.

When I think of this game 2, I think of the end of Rocky III, when Rocky and Apollo end up in the ring to commence the rematch requested by Apollo in return for his training of Rocky. Ding, Ding...and the first punch is thrown...

The Bulls just hit the Heat in their mouth and now we will see how the Heat respond. If they respond like I think they will, we should see a great series. Although I expect the Bulls to win a close one tonight (and the series), I think we see a much better effort, especially on the defensive end, from the Heat.

This game should be played, "first to 90 wins." While I expect a similar score out of the Heat, I do not think the Bulls will score quite as much as they did in the first game. I expect a final score of 89-86 with a thrilling Bulls win.

We need to remember the Bulls' formula for success was not based on great shooting performances or scoring a great deal of points. The Bulls' formula for success is to win with defense and that is what they pride themselves on. Furthermore, the pace of that first game will not be sustained. I expect a slower game tonight with both teams shooting under 45%. Remember, that first punch was thrown and will set the tone for this whole series. Both teams know they are now in for a fight.

There is no doubt the Heat still have matchup problems to contend with. The Bulls will own the Heat all series when it comes to the paint and the bench. However, I don't expect Lebron and Wade to just give up. It seems to me from some of the stories I have read, the Heat now realize this series will be won or lost on the defensive end. It is because of this realization, that I think we see more effort from the Heat. If you remember, their body language was horrible from about half way through the third quarter till the end of the game on Sunday. I think we see a renewed effort and Heat players that fill the lane quicker and are better at helping on Rose. A big part of NBA defense is "want-to" and I expect a much better performance and effort from the Heat tonight which is shown primarily on the defensive end. As long as certain Heat players stay out of foul trouble, expect a shorter rotation and whole lot of the "big-3." That provides for a more athletic lineup and a better chance for steals, disruptions, blocks, etc. Expect the Heat to play with a greater intensity on defense tonight and the Bulls to shoot just a hair worse. Those two factors will combine for a lower scoring game.

Let's also not forget that the Hawks and Pacers exposed the Bulls a bit when it comes to the offensive side of the ball. It's no secret that the Bulls success is significantly dependent upon Derrick Rose. However, I generally assume a great performance from him. The difference between a Bulls win and a Bulls loss lies with Deng, Boozer, Noah, Korver, Bogans, Brewer, Asik, Watson, etc. The Bulls played a great "team" game in game one with everyone providing a contribution. Although I expect the same sort of great team effort from the Bulls tonight, I just don't think we will see the same offensive output. I envision a game where every Bulls player scores about one basket less than they did in game one. This should result primarily from a slower pace and fewer attempts.

We only need 4 points less than the 185 points that were scored in game one. That is not a lot in a game where I expect a much better defensive effort from the Heat with multiple adjustments made in how they plan to defend the Bulls' attack. I believe we will see under 180 points tonight. I believe the early pace we saw in game one, will not continue tonight. For the most part, the Bulls will try to slow the game down and stick to the half court game in an attempt to avoid turnovers and keep the Heat from scoring in the transition. The ability to avoid both turnovers and the Heat's transition attack is vitally important to the Bulls tonight. Consequently, I think we see a slower pace tonight, especially in the second half and fourth quarter.

On defense the Bulls should continue to do what they did in game one...namely, lock down on Wade and Bosh and let Bosh get garbage baskets. Although I do expect a better game from both Lebron and Wade, I think we see both limited to under 27. Bosh should return to earth with about 18-20. The question is if you believe the Heat's role/reserve players can contribute an additional 20-30 points tonight against the Bulls. I don't think this will happen. I believe the Bulls will dominate the paint once again and continue to dominate the one-on-one matchups with their Heat counterparts. At the same time, however, I expect those same Heat players to play much better on the defensive end, and provide more of a challenge to the offense output of the Bulls' "bench mob." This should lead to 4 less points that we will need to cash the under tonight.

The line movement has been interesting. The line opened at 181.5, then dropped to 180.5 and then rose back to 181.5 where it sits now. I was lucky to get 182 through one of my locals and will have to buy the hook if I want to get that number again. However, that early drop to 180.5 is telling and shows me that that sharps pounded the under upon opening, after which the action evened out and started to come in a bit more on the over. I expect the total to go up another half point or thereabouts and then drop before tip. Even more interesting was the decision not to open up at the 182.5 we saw in the opening game, despite that game going over. That opening number of 181.5 tells me even the books expect a lower scoring game as they knew they needed to protect against early money on the under (which they saw anyway).

This line is very sharp. Whether we win or lose, I expect a final score within 5 points of the 182 number. I have this game capped around 176 to 177, therefore, I think we have good value in the under. The Bulls have a huge tendency to hit the under when facing a playoff caliber team at home and I think that trend continues tonight. The Heat were primed for a huge a letdown after they beat the Celtics and released, what I thought, was a ridiculous display of emotion. I think they now realize the Bulls are a great team and will pose a difficult challenge. Consequently, I expect the Heat's renewed effort to show itself on the defensive end and we see the under hit tonight.

Good luck on all your plays tonight gentlemen. As always, I will post updates on the line and ref assignments. As you saw in the Dallas game, the ref assignments are really important when it comes to unit size. I try not to make big plays if the refs show an opposite lean, so let's hope for a Rodney Mott type for tonight. I look forward to hearing your thoughts and questions. Let's cash this under!

NBA 5/18/11

1 - 0 = +10.5x

In this thread:

14 - 11 = +26.3x

If you look at the writeup above, you will see that our analysis was spot on. Miami bounced back with a renewed defensive intensity fueled by the superstars. The Bulls, on the other hand, also fulfilled our prediction and shot worse in this game than in game 1. We knew the Bulls wouldn't shoot that well this game and they didn't. Finally, we predicted a low scoring second half, especially the fourth quarter, and that is exactly what transpired. Our picks are firing on all cylinders right now.

Our profit train keeps chugging along as we hit another 10x+ play for these playoffs and another big play on the Bulls under. I have cashed a ton of units through Bulls unders this playoff season, including our huge 15x winner on the under in the second game of the Bulls/Hawks series. So far in this playoffs as a whole, we are up over 54 units in plays documented in this thread and previous first round threads. That's almost what I made the entire NBA season so I'm loving this. It just comes down to your big plays. If you can hit 65% + of your big plays and keep them rare, you will profit quite big. Now, we just need to keep it level headed and move onto the next game.

We have a good read going on these final teams and see no reason why our profit train will slow down. I previously mentioned the under for tomorrow's game, but now I'm not so sure. We will definitely need to look at that one closer. Either way, however, it will be a small play. Let's get these final MLB plays, including the two extra inning games to close out an awesome day.

[ColdBeerHere]

Nice job on that under....I tailed ya but only for a unit....I see you go pretty heavy on them sometimes....I know you did 3 teams a week or so ago layin' fairly heavy units and coming out on top pretty good....
Is the O/U your "specialty" when it comes to cappin ?

[Love The Action]

Nice job on that under....I tailed ya but only for a unit....I see you go pretty heavy on them sometimes....I know you did 3 teams a week or so ago layin' fairly heavy units and coming out on top pretty good....
Is the O/U your "specialty" when it comes to cappin ?

Yes, I play totals in every sport, with NBA totals my favorite and most profitable investment vehicle. I will however, also bet sides and moneylines if I feel I am getting value or have an edge.

I generally play conservative during the regular season with a handful of 10x plays. However, during the playoffs when the same teams play against each other repeatedly, I feel I have an advantage in spotting value in the lines depending on the result of the previous game and the public's overreaction thereto. Consequently, I generally play very aggressive in the playoffs with multiple 10x plays in each series because I know I have an edge in these games. If you have an edge, you have to play aggressive.

[flush99]

Keep up the good work guys!

[MrXYZ]

Congrats everyone, I thought this one was going to get away but it sailed under for us. let's cash it!

[Rolo1984]

Great night again LTA. Tnx

Lover the play this song when i am winning

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PzE5dS6fnFk

Ship it to the railer

[Love The Action]

Keep up the good work guys!

[Love The Action]

Great night again LTA. Tnx

Lover the play this song when i am winning

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PzE5dS6fnFk

Ship it to the railer