LTA's NBA Plays for Round 2, Conf. Finals & Championship

[Love The Action]

NBA 5/8/11

LAL/Dal Under (188) 5x (Locked)

Chi/Atl Under (179) 5x (Locked)

I really like both unders in this spot. Both games barely went over yesterday and I expect the zig zag to be in full effect for the unders tomorrow. Atlanta will be motivated to play better defense after getting embarrassed yesterday and the Lakers must play better defense or they will be eliminated. I locked them in now because I don't want to risk losing any value, despite the chance that both lines do go up a bit. These will be both public fades as I expect the public to be on both overs at about 80%+ just like they were for game 2 when we cashed both unders. Good luck!

MLB 5/8/11

Toronto ML (-110) 1x (Locked)

Minnesota ML (+175) .6x (Locked)

Hou/Pit Under (8) 1x (Locked)

A's ML (-115) .5x (Locked)

Cubs ML (-110) 1x (Locked)

Cincy/Cubs Under (7.5) 1x (Locked)

I think that will be the full card for today. I am also leaning to the Bulls side (buying hook) in the NBA and AZ/SD under (6.5) and Atlanta ML in MLB. I'll post if I play any of those other ones.

Good luck today guys! And Happy Mother's Day to everyone's mom!

Don't forget to peel yourselves away from the computer/TV to buy your mom some flowers and give her a call.

[Love The Action]

Mavs shooting 60% from the field and 70% from three. The Lakers are playing with no energy and look pathetic on defense, however, the Mavs just aren't missing and when they are shooting unconscious like that there's not much you can do.

Under backers need to hope the Mavs cool down and the pace slows in the second half. If we can keep it around 100 for the first half, it will be close. If they blow by 100, I would not feel good.

[EntengKabisote]

time to hedge?

[Love The Action]

I'm going to look at options now. What are your plans?

[EntengKabisote]

might take under 93 or lakers -5

[Love The Action]

I'm going to stick with the bet.

If anything, I would bet the 2h under and double up. The Lakers are playing horribly and Dallas is shooting 60% from the field and 70% from three. Despite that great shooting, the 1h total was only 102. We're only about 14 points off pace for a total of 187. I'm going to stick with my original bet and hope we get a 30-35 point quarter. Right now, we have a 42-pt cushion for each quarter. If we can get one quarter under 40 points, we got a chance. I would rather stick with my original bet as I have seen crazier unders hitting. I expect Dallas to run out the clock in the 4th quarter and hopefully both teams shoot like crap in the 2h. Good luck to whatever you guys choose.

[Love The Action]

Please take Jason Terry out...he is singlehandedly killing our under wager. This is really frustrating...

[Love The Action]

Tough to cap an NBA record for three's made in game. I'm going to tip my hat to an unbelievable and impossible to predict shooting performance.


Even so, this one isn't completely out of range. However, I'm turning it off to look into the Bulls game and late MLB game. Good luck...

[Love The Action]

Need less than 39 in the 4th quarter to cash and less than 40 to push...let's just hope both teams play slow and miss a boatload of shots.

[Love The Action]

I like the Bulls to win tonight but will not be taking the side. It's just too expensive at -4 or -175. I am strongly considering adding to the under, however, probably 1.5-2.5x. I already have 5x on it, so that would really be making it a considerable investment. However, it's one worth making when you consider the last game totaled 181, yet both teams shot 47% from the field and a collective 42% from three point range on 26 attempts. Although, they only shot a combined 70% on 43 free throw attempts. I would expect about a collective shooting percentage of 43% from the field and 40% from three. If we get those numbers, we should get about 10 - 15 points less in this game if they play at the same pace. In this case, even if there are 10 more free throws, we would still get about 7 points less in this game and that would be enough for an under here.

[nmodi]

So r u planning to add over here in bulls game?

[Love The Action]

Chi/Atl Under (179) 5x (Locked)

I like the Bulls to win tonight but will not be taking the side. It's just too expensive at -4 or -175. I am strongly considering adding to the under, however, probably 1.5-2.5x. I already have 5x on it, so that would really be making it a considerable investment. However, it's one worth making when you consider the last game totaled 181, yet both teams shot 47% from the field and a collective 42% from three point range on 26 attempts. I would expect about a collective shooting percentage of 43% from the field and 40% from three. If we get those numbers, and the same amount of free throw attempts from game 3, we should get about 10 - 15 points less in this game if they play at the same pace. In this case, even if there are 10 more free throws, we would still get about 7 points less in this game and that would be enough for the under here.

Adding 3x to Bulls/Atl Under for total of 8.5x

We're going to continue to play aggressive where we think we have the edge. If I were not to add units here, I would feel guilty for not adding to a play where I think the +ev warrants such an amount. The more I looked at this game based on the last three, the more I like the under here. At the end of the day, we should see a final total around 175 or less. Good luck guys! Let's hope we see an ugly game LOL...

[tom1234]

thanks LTA , bol let hope this game will hit tonight

[Love The Action]

thanks LTA , bol let hope this game will hit tonight

Lets cash it!

[nickos86]

Date Time 9/05/2011 5:09:59 AM
Event Chicago @ Atlanta
Selection 5: (Total Game Score) Under (+179.5) @ 1.91
Stake: Win $770.00

Note that's in Australian time lol...

[Love The Action]

Date Time 9/05/2011 5:09:59 AM
Event Chicago @ Atlanta
Selection 5: (Total Game Score) Under (+179.5) @ 1.91
Stake: Win $770.00

Note that's in Australian time lol...

Lets cash this ticket!

[nmodi]

a little bit nervous....93 in 1H ....lets see hope for D in 2nd half

[nmodi]

not looking good ...

[mick13x]

No chance. Better luck tomorrow.

[Love The Action]

Rough day...

A quicker pace was played today than in previous games, as a direct result Atlanta's renewed energy. I had the game with the exact amount of possessions they were at with 2 minutes left. At that time, the total was at 173. However, his will end up about five points over because of the surprising pace. Definitely a tough loss, but we still eek out some tiny profit on the week overall. I'm going to bed. Need to start thinking about how the next game will go and tomorrow's games.

[nmodi]

tomorrow I m thinking over on bos game...Miami shuld cm back strongly...

[NBA_Brosuf]

tomorrow I m thinking over on bos game...Miami shuld cm back strongly...

I'm sure Miami will post up more than 81 points and James will shoot better than 15 points.

The question of concern is will Boston put up another 90+ points. Joel Ant had his record best at 12, Garnett and Pierce both were in their upper 20+... and yet, they only posted up 97 points.

Gonna have to ask LTA for a second opinion.

[freshguy222]

i think the line in heat celtics game is very telling set at 181 which is very low
i think the oddsmakers don't expect miami to score much more and expect another great defensive performance form the celtics, because otherwise they would set the line higher at 184 or so to protect against a possible over but i see them afraid of an under which explains the line
they know that the public is gonna be all over the over so why wouldnt they set it higher as they would still get the majority of bets on the over
apart from that the line hasnt moved at all since opening despite about 80% on the over
what you think LTA? i always appreaciate your insight and your analysis, especially your ability to fade the square plays (the over tonight would be a square play i think)
as you already mentioned in your analysis about game 3 the pace in boston is always slower and i think the c's found a waay to guard wade and lebron better now and bosh sucks lately anyway he just doesnt have the strength to compete with pierce and KG

[aussieH]

Hey LTA I did not youwere an Aussie as well. Like your work.

[Love The Action]

I went to bed thinking about these two games and woke up thinking about them. Although, I have small leans to the under on both, these are not strong leans because of how badly both teams played in the okc/mem game on saturday on how bad miami played on that same day. If Rondo doesn't play, the celtics tend to actually play a faster pace without him. Therefor, I can see the over hitting in each.

I will keep an eye on the line movement and refs to see where that takes us, however, I think tonight's games should be bet light if at all. I think there enough signs pointing to the over that make an under bet risky and vice versa. Tonight will be a good scouting opportunity for the next games of these series. No need to press or force anything as we will have better spots later this week.

Plus, we have mlb action today so its not like there will be nothing else to invest in.

I have an early work day, so I will update the records later this evening. We had a tough day yesterday, but always bounce back. I'm looking forward to checking out the mlb card and perhaps making some small nba plays.

Good Luck today guys!

[Love The Action]

What do you guys think of all this line movement pointing towards Miami on the side? I mean, the Celtics opened up at -2 and are now +1. That is a pretty significant move when you consider the action is coming in pretty even on both sides (with respect to total number of bets). That tells me there are some heavy hitters taking Miami early. However, they could be setting up just to pound Boston at a better price, so you really never know.

Does anyone know the status of Rondo? I believe that could be the reason so much money is on Miami early, however, is Rondo really worth that big of a switch? Very interesting early movement. I will be following where that goes.

It's also interesting to see so many on the over...I'm seeing as much 87% of all bets being on the over. That makes me feel better about my under lean in that one. The line opened up at 182 and immediately went down to 181, so we're not the only one thinking the under could repeat. Perhaps we take the under light in the Mia/Bos game as our only play for tonight. We will know more once we see the refs and where the line goes.

[Love The Action]

Also, what do you guys think for the total in the next Chicago/Hawks game. I'm pretty sure that one warrants a nice size play on the under. Although, the pace of yesterday's game was much faster than previous games. Will the Hawks continue to play faster with Teague and push the game over or will the Bulls just shut them down and keep this game under? I tend to think the latter and will be interested to see where they post the opening total. If it goes up to 180 or 181, we could have some really good value in the under.

[migz]

What do you guys think of all this line movement pointing towards Miami on the side? I mean, the Celtics opened up at -2 and are now +1. That is a pretty significant move when you consider the action is coming in pretty even on both sides (with respect to total number of bets). That tells me there are some heavy hitters taking Miami early. However, they could be setting up just to pound Boston at a better price, so you really never know.

Does anyone know the status of Rondo? I believe that could be the reason so much money is on Miami early, however, is Rondo really worth that big of a switch? Very interesting early movement. I will be following where that goes.

It's also interesting to see so many on the over...I'm seeing as much 87% of all bets being on the over. That makes me feel better about my under lean in that one. The line opened up at 182 and immediately went down to 181, so we're not the only one thinking the under could repeat. Perhaps we take the under light in the Mia/Bos game as our only play for tonight. We will know more once we see the refs and where the line goes.

Would you still take the under if Rondo's out?

[flush99]

Good luck today .

[Love The Action]

Rondo's playing...

Bulls/hawks open at 181...

Interesting....

[nmodi]

where did u see Rondo is playing?

[Love The Action]

where did u see Rondo is playing?

Gary Washburn of Boston Globe from a few hours ago. Mri showed no fracture. He will play but how much and how well is the question.

[Love The Action]

All three refs in the heat/celts game have a slight over lean. I will definitely be playing light tonight. Perhaps one or two units on the under...no need to force anything.

The line for the celts is up to + 1.5. Lot of money coming in on the heat. If the heat get to -2 or more, then that is pretty significant...if it stays -1, I don't put as much stock in it. However, a move from -2 to + 2 or more would be pretty big.

[Love The Action]

Nba 5/9/11

Mia/Bos Under (181) 2.5x (Locked)



For boston to win, they need to play defense and keep the pace slow by integrating their half court offense. I think miami obliges and they both play "first to 90 wins." Good luck.

[Love The Action]

Might add to the under and play boston as well...