LTA's NBA Plays for Round 2, Conf. Finals & Championship

[Love The Action]

Nice call on the under bud.

[GTS925]

Congrats man! I should've gone bigger

[Love The Action]

Congrats man! I should've gone bigger

[MrXYZ]

Great call LTA, patience prevails, let's cash it

[Love The Action]

Gm 2 Bulls/Hawks Under (180) 15x (Locked) WINNER

As an FYI, I locked this in around 11am CST this morning and the line is now at 179.

This is my biggest play of the NBA season so far. Once the game ended on Monday, I knew I was going to make this play. I have no doubt we see a low scoring game for Game 2 in the Bulls/Hawks series. However, we need the refs to give us a little help and not cause 60 free throws like in Game 2 of Mia/Bos.

I will respectfully direct your attention to my original write-up for the first Bulls/Atl game as it is applicable to this entire series. However, I will add the following as further reasons I am playing the under here:

1) Bulls rebound from bad performances with suffocating defense --
Take a look at the Bulls season stats and you will see that whenever the Bulls got torched for over 100 points in a loss, they bounced back the next game and destroyed other teams with their defense. The common denominator in all of these bounce-back games is that the under cashed. For example: (i) in early in November, the Bulls lost and played very poorly on defense against the Knicks; the next game they held Carmelo and the Denver Nuggets in Denver to 92 points in a 94-92 win (staying more than 20 points under); (ii) in mid-November, the Bulls gave up 103 points to SA in a 103-94 loss; the next game they beat Dallas 88-83 in Dallas staying well under the posted total of 193; (iii) the Bulls lost to the Knicks on Christmas giving up over 100 points; the next game they beat Detroit 95-92 in OT and stayed under the total despite the overtime (each team only scored 85 points in regulation); (iv) in January, the Bulls gave up over 100 points in a loss to Philly; the next game they beat the Celtics 90-79 staying 20 points under the posted total of 187; (v) in early February, the Bulls lost to Portland and gave up 109 points; the next game they beat the Jazz 91-86, staying well under the 193 total; (vi) at the end of February, the Bulls were torched by Toronto for 118 points and lost; the next game the Bulls beat the Heat 93-89 staying well under the total of 192. This tells me that Thibodeau's defensive adjustments have a huge effect on this team. Consequently, I expect Game 2 to follow this pattern and the under should hit based on Thibs adjustments. Do you really think the Bulls will allow Joe Johnson to shoot 5-5 from 3pt range and 12-18 from the field? I suspect the Bulls find the answer defensively, which leads me to my next point.

2) There is no way that the Atlanta Hawks shoot 51.3% from the field and 53.8% from three point range in Wednesday's game. Whether it be from the Bulls defense or from the law of averages, I just don't see one of the worst shooting teams in these playoffs hitting at such a high rate against a Bulls team that will be motivated and will have made defensive adjustments. It was such an unbelievably rare shooting game for the Hawks, that I just don't see them repeating that performance. For example, Jeff Teague was 5-11 last game; Jamaal Crawford was 8-16 last game; and every other Hawks player except for Smith shot 50% or over. Remember, this is the same team that just hit 5 straight unders against Orlando in the first round. Can the Hawks possibly repeat their unconscience performance from game 1? I would answer no and am willing to make my biggest play this NBA season on it.

3) Smart/sharp/big money is on this game. The line has steadily dropped since opening despite 70%+ on the over. I only mention this because it was the same scenario for pretty much all of the unders that have lost in this second round. Therefore, I would ask you, how long can the public continue to cash games where they are favoring one side more than 70%? Sooner or later the public is going to get buried on one of these public overs and I predict it happens in this Bulls game. Whenever you see the majority on the over, but the line drops, that is a great sign. Just because the under didn't hit in Miami/Celts, doesn't mean the under won't hit here. I predict a public burial in this game and I love being on the other side.

(4) Motivation & Revenge -- MVP, Coach of the Year, etc. The Bulls, and especially Derrick Rose, will come out ready to play some defense and half court offense. They are not going to be embarrassed after taking home all of this hardware. I would also remind you of what happened everytime the Bulls played with a chip on their shoulder or some other revenge. Usually the Bulls dominated and the game stayed under (think about the revenge games against Charlotte and Atlantaearlier in the year, the Bulls rolled and the under hit).

When you add the foregoing reasons to my original writeup on this series, every possible factor points to the under in this game 2 and I will be on it big.

NBA 5/4/11

1-0 +15units


We cash our biggest play of the year, a huge 15 unit winner. Our analysis proves true on multiple levels. About time we get back on the winning track in the NBA. Now, let's close out the night 2-0.

Congrats to those on the Bulls under!

[Love The Action]

Gm 2 Dallas/LAL Under 188 (-120) 5x

We lost the first game under by 2 points, despite Dallas shooting 50%. One could argue the only reason that game went over was because of the four free throws granted at the end of the first half. Hoyas previously mentioned that Dallas will be trying to push the pace in this game. However, I am skeptical at their ability to do so on a regular basis. I predict that both teams fall into a slow, half court battle that is really conducive to the under play.

This game opened up at 187.5, a full point lower than the first game despite that first game going over the posted total. In addition, the total dropped from that 187.5 down a full point to 186.5 where it currently stands. That tells me the books are protecting against the under in this game. If they were worried about the over, they would have set the line at 188.5 or 189. However, by setting it up at 187.5 and seeing it drop pretty quick, we know that the big boys are also on the under here. I like my chances when all of these factors add up (i.e. public heavily favor one side, sharps/money favor the other side).

This is yet another game that the public will be pounding the over. There is no way they continue to cash these plays. Dallas will not shoot as well two games in a row and the Lakers will make sure of that. I like this game to end around 88-83 with the Lakers bouncing back with the win.

Good luck guys! Be confident and positive with all of your plays. You have to believe you will win! Remember how important the mental approach is to this gambling game and life in general. You have to picture success to reach success, and in this case, I am picturing a hugely profitable day in the NBA for Wednesday. I'm off to bed... Bol...

Adding 5x Under (188.5) (Locked) (Total of 10x with 5x at 188 and 5x at 188.5)

I continue to be aggressive when I feel I have the edge. I see a tonight's game being very similar to the second game of the NO/LAL series. This should be defensive game with a slower pace than played in the first game. Plus, I think we have an edge with the refs tonight who really favor the under. I know some might say I should play it safe and sit back and enjoy our earlier win. However, you have to approach each play independent of the other one and I see enough factors pointing to the under here to make this a 10x play. Mavs will not shoot 50% tonight. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

Great call LTA, patience prevails, let's cash it

[EntengKabisote]

Good job LTA. Winner! whats your call for tom games?

[NFL49ers]

[kobstopa]

congratulation LTA, i had these 2 under as well

[migz]

Nice win LTA. I love your analysis.

[Love The Action]

Gm 2 Dallas/LAL Under 188 (-120) 5x

We lost the first game under by 2 points, despite Dallas shooting 50%. One could argue the only reason that game went over was because of the four free throws granted at the end of the first half. Hoyas previously mentioned that Dallas will be trying to push the pace in this game. However, I am skeptical at their ability to do so on a regular basis. I predict that both teams fall into a slow, half court battle that is really conducive to the under play.

This game opened up at 187.5, a full point lower than the first game despite that first game going over the posted total. In addition, the total dropped from that 187.5 down a full point to 186.5 where it currently stands. That tells me the books are protecting against the under in this game. If they were worried about the over, they would have set the line at 188.5 or 189. However, by setting it up at 187.5 and seeing it drop pretty quick, we know that the big boys are also on the under here. I like my chances when all of these factors add up (i.e. public heavily favor one side, sharps/money favor the other side).

This is yet another game that the public will be pounding the over. There is no way they continue to cash these plays. Dallas will not shoot as well two games in a row and the Lakers will make sure of that. I like this game to end around 88-83 with the Lakers bouncing back with the win.

Good luck guys! Be confident and positive with all of your plays. You have to believe you will win! Remember how important the mental approach is to this gambling game and life in general. You have to picture success to reach success, and in this case, I am picturing a hugely profitable day in the NBA for Wednesday. I'm off to bed... Bol...

Adding 5x Under (188.5) (Locked) (Total of 10x with 5x at 188 and 5x at 188.5) WINNER

I continue to be aggressive when I feel I have the edge. I see a tonight's game being very similar to the second game of the NO/LAL series. This should be defensive game with a slower pace than played in the first game. Plus, I think we have an edge with the refs tonight who really favor the under. I know some might say I should play it safe and sit back and enjoy our earlier win. However, you have to approach each play independent of the other one and I see enough factors pointing to the under here to make this a 10x play. Mavs will not shoot 50% tonight. Good luck.

NBA 5/4/11

2 - 0 +25 units

We go 2-0 on two big plays cashing for a total of 25 units. We identified multiple factors in both games which pointed to the under and all of those factors ringed true, whether it was the Bulls revenge trend or the poor shooting and slower play which was to be expected from the Dallas/Lal game. Bottom line was that our hard work researching these games paid off in a big way and we worked ourselves back to the level of profit we expect for the playoffs. Now, it's time to start profiting off this Boston/Heat series. I do expect to have a big play in the Heat/Celts game for Saturday.

[Love The Action]

Good job LTA. Winner! whats your call for tom games?

Next big play won't be until Game 3 in the Heat/Celts game. No games today, but will review the lines for Friday's games once they come out. Good luck!

[Love The Action]

[Love The Action]

congratulation LTA, i had these 2 under as well

Thanks...same to you

[Love The Action]

Nice win LTA. I love your analysis.

Thanks

[aussieH]

Good comeback and good analysis

[Love The Action]

Good comeback and good analysis

Thank you.

[Love The Action]

MLB 5/5/11

Cardinals ML (+113) 1x (Locked)

Brewers ML (+113) 1x (Locked)

I like both of these teams to bounce back from losses. The Cardinals are facing Johnson and Marlins to even up their four game series. After losing to Vazquez and the Marlins yesterday, the Cardinals should find a way to get it done today at home. Westbrook has been pitching better lately and he generally steps up in big games against other great starting pitchers. Johnson is one of the best and the public is all over the Marlins. I like the Cards in this one.

The Brewers just got swept in a double header yesterday. I like Beachy and he has done well so far this year, however, Marcum may be Milwaukee's best starter at the moment and he should pull out the win today. Milwaukee will be ultra motivated today, while we may see a complacent Braves team after yesterday's wins. I like the Brewers in this spot.

Good luck!

[petermans23]

Congrat LTA!

I played under 5 units miami-boston first game and lost, then played under 10 units second game miami-boston.

Now thinking of putting 20 units on the under for miami-boston saturday.

What do you think LTA, should I jump on now when the line is 182,5 or wait? Just thinking that perhaps the line will be 182 tomorrow and 181,5 or 181 on saturday.

With your experience, success and good reasoning I would very much appriciate to hear your point of view on this game and the under.

[Love The Action]

Congrat LTA!

I played under 5 units miami-boston first game and lost, then played under 10 units second game miami-boston.

Now thinking of putting 20 units on the under for miami-boston saturday.

What do you think LTA, should I jump on now when the line is 182,5 or wait? Just thinking that perhaps the line will be 182 tomorrow and 181,5 or 181 on saturday.

With your experience, success and good reasoning I would very much appriciate to hear your point of view on this game and the under.

I will be playing the under in that game, but not for 20x. My biggest play of the year was yesterday's 15 unit winner on the bulls under. Unfortunately, I don't see as many factors pointing to the under in this heat/celts game like I had in that bulls winner. Therefore, I will be playing the under for somewhere between 5 & 10 units in the heat game and can only recommend the same.

I believe the total will probably go up to 183 at some point before tip because 79% of all bets are on the over. Therefore, you may be ok if you have time to keep a consistent eye on the line. I am going to play it safe and lock in at least 5x now and buy the hook to 183. In the playoffs, I am not opposed to buying a hook like I am in the regular season because the lines are so sharp.

Good luck!

[Love The Action]

Nba 5/7/11



Heat/celts under 183 (-120) 5x (locked)



Writeup to come later. Addition of units up to ten possible.

I'm locking this in now because I have no time to monitor lines today and don't want to lose any value, despite my belief that the line will go up before dipping
again. Bol...

[flush99]

Good luck with your picks.

[Love The Action]

Good luck with your picks.

Thanks...same to you.

[Love The Action]

MLB 5/5/11

Toronto/TB under (7) 1x (locked)

[Love The Action]

NBA 5/6/11

Bulls ML (-135) 3.5x (locked)


This will be my first play on a "side" for these playoffs and I think the Bulls roll here. I will add my own reasoning for this play in a writeup, but I wanted to mention that I didn't lock this in until I saw SJ's post about this play. Therefore, SJ deserves a shout-out and I guess that means I will be "tailing" him on this one.

As of right now, I dont plan on having a play on the total. That might change before tip, however, based on a few factors.

Good luck to all! Back later with more mlb plays.

[Love The Action]

Awesome comeback by the cardinals today to beat Johnson and the Marlins just like we predicted here. We also cashed our under play in the blue jays/TB game. Now we just need the brewers to take down atlanta and we will be 3-0 today in mlb.

In addition to that brewers play, I may also play the over in wash/phil and col/az, and the AZ ML, and Seattle ML. Those are just leans at the moment, however. I will post any other plays. Bol...

[Love The Action]

MLB 5/4/11

Hou/Cincy over (8.5) 1x (locked) LOSS

Rookie reliever in Rodriguez versus Travis Wood. Both teams are over teams. Despite the public on this play at about 60%, I still like this game to go over and start our day on the bases with some profit. We should also beat the closer with the 8.5 number. Good luck!

chi/lad under (7.5) 1x (locked) WIN

Pit/SD under (6.5) 2x (Locked) LOSS

SF/Mets under (6.5) 1x (Locked) WIN

washington ml (+ 135) .75 x (locked) LOSS

seattle ml (-115) 1x (locked) LOSS

MLB

2-4 -1.75 units

In this thread:

10 - 7 +2 units

Rough day on the bases yesterday (5/4/11) as my 2 unit play missed cashing. On the MLB season I am really churning out profit pretty consistently as I have not had a losing week on the bases so far this year. However, undocumented plays don't really count around here so I won't go into too much detail. We've made 2 units since I started this thread on Saturday, but we've already started out today with 2 wins so let's see where tonight's plays take us. BOL..

[Love The Action]

I made this play before the playoffs as my only futures bet. I am posting here for my records, since this has essentially become my sports investing diary.

BULLS (+150) 1.5x to win the Eastern Conference (Locked)

It seems I could have waited and gotten +180 today, however, I liked the Bulls before the playoffs and I like them now. Most would probably say the Heat, however, I think the jury is out until they can win a game in Boston. Even then, if they do make it to the Bulls, I don't see them taking one in Chicago. I am contemplating adding to this play and will update accordingly. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

MLB 5/5/11

Cardinals ML (+113) 1x (Locked) WINNER

Brewers ML (+113) 1x (Locked) LOSS

I like both of these teams to bounce back from losses. The Cardinals are facing Johnson and Marlins to even up their four game series. After losing to Vazquez and the Marlins yesterday, the Cardinals should find a way to get it done today at home. Westbrook has been pitching better lately and he generally steps up in big games against other great starting pitchers. Johnson is one of the best and the public is all over the Marlins. I like the Cards in this one.

The Brewers just got swept in a double header yesterday. I like Beachy and he has done well so far this year, however, Marcum may be Milwaukee's best starter at the moment and he should pull out the win today. Milwaukee will be ultra motivated today, while we may see a complacent Braves team after yesterday's wins. I like the Brewers in this spot.


Toronto/TB under (7) 1x (locked) WINNER


Good luck!

MLB 5/5/11

2-1 + 1.13x

In this thread:

12-8 +3.13 units


Man, we almost went 3-0, but the Brewers gave up the game in the bottom of the 8th despite an awesome performance by Marcum. That is a guy you should keeping an eye on as he has been pitching real well and he is currently getting underdog odds. That won't last much longer.

I should have played my lean on the over in Philly/Wash game as that would have cashed, but we churn out some more daily profit nonetheless.

[Love The Action]

NBA 5/6/11

Bulls ML (-135) 3.5x (locked)

In addition to my ML play on the Bulls for tonight, I also lean to both unders. However, if there is going to be another over in either of these series, tonight would be the night. Therefore, if I lock either of the unders in, I will be playing them light -- probably one unit each.

There will be another opportunity to go big on the under in each of tonight's series, however, that night is not tonight. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

Awesome comeback by the cardinals today to beat Johnson and the Marlins just like we predicted here. We also cashed our under play in the blue jays/TB game. Now we just need the brewers to take down atlanta and we will be 3-0 today in mlb.

In addition to that brewers play, I may also play the over in wash/phil and col/az, and the AZ ML, and Seattle ML. Those are just leans at the moment, however. I will post any other plays. Bol...

I should have played my late MLB leans as they would have gone 3-1. I really hate leaving profit on the table damnit...

[GTS925]

LTA, are you going to play any unders tonight?

[Love The Action]

LTA, are you going to play any unders tonight?

For me, its under or nothing for the rest of these second round games. However, there will be better spots down the road. I do lean to the under tonight, but only light. I will wait for thr ref assignments to make a final decision on any more plays for tonight.

I really like that Bulls ml play and want to get as much profit out of that one as possible. Gl....

[Love The Action]

May add units to the bulls ml. The more I look at it, the more I like it. I may also play some parlays with the bulls ml and the two unders. Tonight is looking more and more interesting.

Plus, we still need to check out the mlb card.. Busy day!