NBA Daily Picks

[TrafalgarLaw]

SA-IND - 68+81=149 and if you bet on under 146.5 - you loose

[kobstopa]

SA-IND - 68+81=149 and if you bet on under 146.5 - you loose

actually i got it at 149.5 but didnt updated it, dont worry too much about it, we moved on to the next one.

[Bell Curves]

Parlays?
Tomorrow's games all suck. Line makers tilted the lines away from the favorites, and I don't like betting dogs early.
Connecticut under might be worth it at 150.

[Ethan]

goodluck to us

[burgi]

Stars - Sun Under 150.5 looks good??

[kobstopa]

Parlays? Tomorrow's games all suck. Line makers tilted the lines away from the favorites, and I don't like betting dogs early. Connecticut under might be worth it at 150.

Stars - Sun Under 150.5 looks good??

I agree this look like a good spot, I wouldn't be surprised it moves down to 148.5 etc.
Tulsa/Sea is also a good spot, under at 141.5 I think they should be 129.5 for a sharp line

[Bell Curves]

I agree this look like a good spot, I wouldn't be surprised it moves down to 148.5 etc. Tulsa/Sea is also a good spot, under at 141.5 I think they should be 129.5 for a sharp line

Tulsa/Sea always looks like it'll go under (crap offense/great defense), but they usually end up going over with Seattle scoring alot. I'll probably wait and see what happens.

[kobstopa]

[ATTACH]31178[/ATTACH]

_________________________
San Antonio at Conn
A physical game is common with SA, both at home and on the road. They love to challenge shots, pressure the balls and cause bad rhythms and yield a poor FG % overall. On the other hand, CT likes their low post game to their strength and defense perimeter shots to the teeth. In their last game, they had easily covered a 6 points line easily at home against a 2-8 road record Sky with a sub .500.

Take under 151.5
_________________________
Atlanta at Phoenix
Two of the most high scoring teams in the league will meet 2nd time in the valley of the sun. Phx had beaten
Lynx at home and did so with a good defensive effort.

Take under 186.5
_________________________
Tulsa at Seattle
Storm is back at home & usually put a strong effort especially from a tough road stretch, but very few time that they will ever cover 13 points+ ATS. It's looked impossible for Tulsa to win here, but the best they can do is keeping it close and hope to get lucky in dying minutes of the game.

Tulsa +13.5
_________________________

[Bell Curves]

Phoenix is playing Atlanta not Minnesota. It says that in your projection box, but your writeup talks about Phoenix and Minn.

[kobstopa]

Phoenix is playing Atlanta not Minnesota. It says that in your projection box, but your writeup talks about Phoenix and Minn.

I am aware of that, I refer to phx's last game at home where they've beaten Lynx with defensive & this mind set will most likely carry over to this game as well.

[kobstopa]

Basketball - International Match
_____________________________
Turkey vs Ukraine
Two strong offensive teams, Ukraine had recent matches with Jordan 104:75, Belarus 78:82 and Estonia 93:89
Turkey is solid with small forward and 2 guard. We should expect a 88-73 Turk win.

Take Over 150.5 Points

_____________________________

[Bell Curves]

I am aware of that, I refer to phx's last game at home where they've beaten Lynx with defensive & this mind set will most likely carry over to this game as well.

Sorry for misunderstanding -- Phoenix and Minn are 1 and 2 in terms of high scoring so I thought of them immediately. Atlanta is above average at number 5.

Basketball - International Match _____________________________ Turkey vs Ukraine Two strong offensive teams, Ukraine had recent matches with Jordan 104:75, Belarus 78:82 and Estonia 93:89 Turkey is solid with small forward and 2 guard. We should expect a 88-73 Turk win. Take Over 150.5 Points _____________________________

Line was originally 148.5, and I thought over was a no-brainer given how high scoring Ukraine matches were, but Turkey hasn't played in a year. But line seems to be set low on purpose. I'll probably place a very small bet on the over. Good luck.

Also, do you know why Germany totals dipped 6 points?

[kobstopa]

I'm not sure why ger dip 6 pts. I don't have much info on this game anyway. Could it be dirk or karmen are not in it.

[kobstopa]

[ATTACH]31178[/ATTACH]

_________________________
San Antonio at Conn
Take under 151.5
_________________________
Atlanta at Phoenix
Two of the most high scoring teams in the league will meet 2nd time in the valley of the sun. Phx had beaten
Lynx at home and did so with a good defensive effort.

Take under 186.5
_________________________
Tulsa at Seattle
Storm is back at home & usually put a strong effort especially from a tough road stretch, but very few time that they will ever cover 13 points+ ATS. It's looked impossible for Tulsa to win here, but the best they can do is keeping it close and hope to get lucky in dying minutes of the game.

Tulsa +13.5
_________________________

San Antonio 72, Connecticut 59
Phoenix 109, Atlanta 95
Seattle 77, Tulsa 63

[kobstopa]

[ATTACH]31204[/ATTACH]

[Bell Curves]

I think Chicago + points is might be worth it, but they've struggled lately and I'm not sure if 5 points is enough. In the Phoenix/LA match, how important is Tolliver to LA?

Also, what has been the effect of back to back road games on totals so far?
Which effect is stronger?
1) Team is tired so they can't play solid defense, thus they get scored on more and total goes up.
2) Team is tired so they don't shoot as well, thus they make less basketballs themselves and total goes down.

[kobstopa]

I think Chicago + points is might be worth it, but they've struggled lately and I'm not sure if 5 points is enough. In the Phoenix/LA match, how important is Tolliver to LA?

Also, what has been the effect of back to back road games on totals so far?
Which effect is stronger?
1) Team is tired so they can't play solid defense, thus they get scored on more and total goes up.
2) Team is tired so they don't shoot as well, thus they make less basketballs themselves and total goes down.

No play from me tomorrow,
but lean toward Chi +4.5, at home they really can play & they try to prepare themselves against contenders such as Ind(which they had won) as we are more than half way of the season already

NY will win & cover -3.5
Phoenix/LA, it's a back to back for Phx but it's only 1 hour flight from Arizona to LA, it's still in westcoast.
Phx is one unpredictable, like today against ATL, it was an all out scoring fest while they understood that defensive is a key ingredient to control the game flow, especially against jump-shooting teams, but I think it's also can come down to the fact that they will not have enough time to at least have some practice on the play court to have a good feel of it, strategise game plan etc

[kobstopa]

Basketball - International Match
_____________________________
Turkey vs Ukraine
Two strong offensive teams, Ukraine had recent matches with Jordan 104:75, Belarus 78:82 and Estonia 93:89
Turkey is solid with small forward and 2 guard. We should expect a 88-73 Turk win.

Take Over 150.5 Points
result: 69-65 Turk
_____________________________

Basketball - International Match

Matches coming up

Serbia v Ukraine
Germany v Turkey

[kobstopa]

____________________________
Serbia v Ukraine
These are two low post teams, it's no question that this will be a physical match up. I expect the coach of Serbian national team Dušan Ivković to bring Olympiacos's style of defense which also match up well aganst Ukraine's coach Mike "The Czar" Fratello. In previous game, Ukraine committed 25 turnovers vs just 7 for Turkey, at half time they were 15 points behind but yet managed to lose by 5 points.

Team Serbia

Team Ukraine


Take under 142.5
____________________________


Germany v Turkey

Team Germany


Team Turkey


Take under 139.5
____________________________

[Bell Curves]

Both lines moved away on Pinnacle, so I took Ukraine +11 instead. I think Serbia is over-valued at the moment after watching them play the last few times.

[Bell Curves]

Ok I'm wrong. Ukraine came out in the second half looking to give the game away; another unit donated to the books. I hope you cash your unders, but I'm going to stop betting International basketball because I have no idea what I'm doing.

[kobstopa]

Serbia v Ukraine
These are two low post teams, it's no question that this will be a physical match up. I expect the coach of Serbian national team Dušan Ivković to bring Olympiacos's style of defense which also match up well aganst Ukraine's coach Mike "The Czar" Fratello. In previous game, Ukraine committed 25 turnovers vs just 7 for Turkey, at half time they were 15 points behind but yet managed to lose by 5 points.

Team Serbia

Result full time: 83-57
Take under 142.5
____________________________

Germany v Turkey
result:
Result half time: 43-35
Result full time: 79-72
Take under 139.5
____________________________[/quote]
result:

[kobstopa]

Ok I'm wrong. Ukraine came out in the second half looking to give the game away; another unit donated to the books. I hope you cash your unders, but I'm going to stop betting International basketball because I have no idea what I'm doing.

what happen here, the Serb had mess it up, against Germany they have sat out 4 of their starters and their coach was mad like hell when they lost it. And then they took on Ukraine with full strength. Look at players minutes here:

http://www.tbf.org.tr/worldcup/worldcup2011.nsf/0/76E1A8BD674FB8A9C225733D0044F148?OpenDocument

Also the German is played a lot better then people think, their offensive came out against turkey & they had killed my 2 ways parlay here.

I forget to post other game & as expected per discussed in the other thread, finland is to win against hungary & sure enough:

Game: Hungary vs Finland
Time: 19:00
Result half time: 37-37
Result full time: 73-75

[Bell Curves]

Yea I missed that. They sat out Kristic, Tripkovic, and some other guys vs Germany. They struggled against Ukraine in first half too, but Ukraine played worse than Tulsa in the second half, so I stopped watching.

[Bell Curves]

Very interested to see your projections for tomorrow's games. Every single angle, power rating, and trend points to Seattle blow-out, but line came out at -3. Seems too obvious to be true, especially since books have been extremely sharp with WNBA lately.

[kobstopa]

Very interested to see your projections for tomorrow's games. Every single angle, power rating, and trend points to Seattle blow-out, but line came out at -3. Seems too obvious to be true, especially since books have been extremely sharp with WNBA lately.

We can make profit by follow some consistency patterns & certainty, losing any of these it's just a plain 50/50 gambling & a suicide mission and it's a good thing I had stayed away today. But in a reverse logic it too can work, but that's a concept in itself.

Anyway, I am not sure where you saw that -3 line, I am seeing -6 to sea -6.5 will that make it a lesser danger? it will be a win for storm almost certain 99%, but in what way ? I can see it by 6 & also by 9 points as well.

[Bell Curves]

We can make profit by follow some consistency patterns & certainty, losing any of these it's just a plain 50/50 gambling & a suicide mission and it's a good thing I had stayed away today. But in a reverse logic it too can work, but that's a concept in itself. Anyway, I am not sure where you saw that -3 line, I am seeing -6 to sea -6.5 will that make it a lesser danger? it will be a win for storm almost certain 99%, but in what way ? I can see it by 6 & also by 9 points as well.

Chicago did end up covering the spread today, but I bet Minnesota for 1H instead, which won as well.
Pinnacle opened their Seattle line at -3, but t moved to -6.5, and then back to -6. It seems for some reason like they arn't afraid at all to take big action on Seattle. I see something like over 80% of the money is on Seattle right now. The line should be at -8/-9 by now, and I've been burned a couple times already betting a side that's too obvious, so I guess I'll pass on the game line. Seattle will probably win, but I don't think I'll be betting on them to cover 6.

[kobstopa]

_____________________________
New York at Indiana
Thing will get worse before it's getting better for New York as they had not only loss twice to Mystics but will play a back to back game at the eastern's leader home court. Indiana with a 10-2 at home will look to take advantage of NY's tilt and further their lead to secure home court and league lead.

Take Indiana -6.5
Take over 146.5
_____________________________
Wash at Conn
Another team with a back to back game with a short celebration, Mystics's season had been all but over about 5 games ago, these're pretenders, play just as hard as a playoff bound team and enrich experience for their young players BullShit. But when they're down 10 by the half, will sure to toss the tower, couldn't be bother with a meaningless road game and head for the shower as there are sight seeing to do in Mohegan sun and pick up with they had left off with cool and the gang's let's celebration & partying all night. Hey this had been a tough season for them what's else can they do?.

Conn -10.5
Take under 151.5
_____________________________
Atlanta at Seattle
Sue bird's give away special game, she's coming out. It's a new defensive scheme to slow down Angel McCoughtry and I think it will work really well too. Atlanta is slipping in the east, they just wanna get away to the next one in LA, a team they can beat.

Take under 153.5

[Bell Curves]

Nice writeup on Wash@Conn. Exactly what I was thinking haha. Mohegan is the real reason why Connecticut's home record is so good.

[Bell Curves]

Ok I couldn't just stand around anymore and let this opportunity slip by. Took Atlanta +5.5 2H.

[kobstopa]

down at least 7 units today, we'll see a recuperation in week or so

[Bell Curves]

down at least 7 units today, we'll see a recuperation in week or so

Your picks are 2/5 today right? I'll assume it wasn't WNBA.
Two games tomorrow. There should be some decent opportunities.

[kobstopa]

___________________________
San Antonio vs Chicago
Star is consistent with their defense, almost like a trade mark where they would force a low scoring
with disruptive of shooting rhythm against any teams and should be dominant at home against a poor road team such as Chicago.

SA -6.5
Take Under 148.5

___________________________
Minnesota v Tulsa

Take Under 153.5

[Bell Curves]

SA could play good defense, but losing Adams seems to have hurt them more alot more than losing a normal bench player. Both teams are struggling at the moment. I took SA -6 early, but the line moved to -5 already, not good.

What do you think about Tulsa +16.5? I know Minnesota can easily beat Tulsa by 30+ points, but don't think they would want to, especially with the way they have been cruising through games lately.

[bleek88]

Be careful with your Lynx -17 pick. I have a feeling the Shock just might come to play.